ii
This commit is contained in:
John Doe
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
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"""
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Weather Trading Bot v3 — Polymarket CLOB Real Trading
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======================================================
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bot_v2 strategy logic + py_clob_client on-chain order execution.
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Only trades US cities (F) for now — EU/Asia cities need CLOB market support.
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Usage:
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python bot_v3.py run # Full trading loop (scan + monitor)
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python bot_v3.py scan # One-shot scan + trade signals
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python bot_v3.py status # Show open positions + balance
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python bot_v3.py cancel # Cancel all open orders
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python bot_v3.py cancel --market <market_id> # Cancel orders for a market
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"""
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import re
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import sys
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import json
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import math
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import time
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import os
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import dotenv
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from datetime import datetime, timezone, timedelta
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from pathlib import Path
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# =============================================================================
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# CONFIG
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# =============================================================================
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BOT_DIR = Path(__file__).parent
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dotenv.load_dotenv(BOT_DIR / ".env")
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with open(BOT_DIR / "config.json", encoding="utf-8") as f:
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_cfg = json.load(f)
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# --- Wallet ---
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PK = os.getenv("PK", "")
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WALLET = os.getenv("WALLET", "")
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SIG_TYPE = int(os.getenv("SIG_TYPE", "0"))
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# --- Trading ---
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MAX_BET = _cfg.get("max_bet", 2.0)
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MIN_EV = _cfg.get("min_ev", 0.10)
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MAX_PRICE = _cfg.get("max_price", 0.45)
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MIN_VOLUME = _cfg.get("min_volume", 500)
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MIN_HOURS = _cfg.get("min_hours", 2.0)
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MAX_HOURS = _cfg.get("max_hours", 72.0)
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KELLY_FRAC = _cfg.get("kelly_fraction", 0.25)
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MAX_SLIPPAGE = _cfg.get("max_slippage", 0.03)
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SCAN_INTERVAL = _cfg.get("scan_interval", 3600)
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VC_KEY = _cfg.get("vc_key", "")
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# --- CLOB ---
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CLOB_HOST = "https://clob.polymarket.com"
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CHAIN_ID = 137 # Polygon
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# --- Contract addresses (Polygon) ---
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USDC_ADDRESS = "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174"
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CTF_EXCHANGE = "0x4bFb41d5B3570DeFd03C39a9A4D8dE6Bd8B8982E"
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NEG_RISK_EXCHANGE = "0xC5d563A36AE78145C45a50134d48A1215220f80a"
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ROUTER = "0xd91E80cF2E7be2e162c6513ceD06f1dD0dA35296"
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CONDITIONAL_TOKENS = "0x4D97DCd97eC945f40cF65F87097ACe5EA0476045"
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# --- Gas ---
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MAX_FEE_PER_GAS = 200e9 # 200 gwei
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# =============================================================================
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# MATH
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# =============================================================================
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def norm_cdf(x):
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return 0.5 * (1.0 + math.erf(x / math.sqrt(2.0)))
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def bucket_prob(forecast, t_low, t_high, sigma=2.0):
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if t_low == -999:
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return norm_cdf((t_high - float(forecast)) / sigma)
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if t_high == 999:
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return 1.0 - norm_cdf((t_low - float(forecast)) / sigma)
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return 1.0 if in_bucket(forecast, t_low, t_high) else 0.0
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def calc_ev(p, price):
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if price <= 0 or price >= 1: return 0.0
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return round(p * (1.0 / price - 1.0) - (1.0 - p), 4)
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def calc_kelly(p, price):
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if price <= 0 or price >= 1: return 0.0
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b = 1.0 / price - 1.0
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f = (p * b - (1.0 - p)) / b
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return round(min(max(0.0, f) * KELLY_FRAC, 1.0), 4)
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def bet_size(kelly, balance):
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raw = kelly * balance
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return round(min(raw, MAX_BET), 2)
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# =============================================================================
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# COLORS
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# =============================================================================
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class C:
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GREEN = "\033[92m"
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YELLOW = "\033[93m"
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RED = "\033[91m"
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CYAN = "\033[96m"
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GRAY = "\033[90m"
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RESET = "\033[0m"
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BOLD = "\033[1m"
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def ok(msg): print(f"{C.GREEN} ✅ {msg}{C.RESET}")
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def warn(msg): print(f"{C.YELLOW} ⚠️ {msg}{C.RESET}")
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def info(msg): print(f"{C.CYAN} {msg}{C.RESET}")
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def skip(msg): print(f"{C.GRAY} ⏸️ {msg}{C.RESET}")
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def live(msg): print(f"{C.GREEN} {msg}{C.RESET}")
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# =============================================================================
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# CLOB CLIENT
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# =============================================================================
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from py_clob_client.client import ClobClient
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from py_clob_client.clob_types import OrderArgs, MarketOrderArgs, OrderType
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_clob: ClobClient = None
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def get_clob() -> ClobClient:
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global _clob
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if _clob is None:
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_clob = ClobClient(
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host=CLOB_HOST,
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chain_id=CHAIN_ID,
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key=PK,
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)
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return _clob
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# =============================================================================
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# ON-CHAIN HELPERS
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# =============================================================================
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from web3 import Web3
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from eth_account import Account
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_w3: Web3 = None
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def get_w3() -> Web3:
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global _w3
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if _w3 is None:
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_w3 = Web3(Web3.HTTPProvider("https://1rpc.io/matic"))
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return _w3
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def get_nonce(wallet: str) -> int:
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return get_w3().eth.get_transaction_count(wallet)
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def send_tx(w3, signed_txn):
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return w3.eth.send_raw_transaction(signed_txn).hex()
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def wait_for_receipt(w3, tx_hash: str, timeout=120):
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start = time.time()
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while time.time() - start < timeout:
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try:
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receipt = w3.eth.get_transaction_receipt(tx_hash)
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if receipt and receipt["status"] == 1:
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return receipt
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except Exception:
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pass
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time.sleep(2)
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return None
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# =============================================================================
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# BALANCE CHECK
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# =============================================================================
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def get_usdc_balance(wallet: str) -> float:
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"""Get USDC.e balance on Polygon."""
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w3 = get_w3()
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usdc_abi = [
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{
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"name": "balanceOf",
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"inputs": [{"name": "account", "type": "address"}],
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"outputs": [{"name": "", "type": "uint256"}],
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"stateMutability": "view",
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"type": "function"
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},
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{
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"name": "decimals",
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"inputs": [],
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"outputs": [{"name": "", "type": "uint8"}],
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"stateMutability": "view",
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"type": "function"
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}
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]
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usdc = w3.eth.contract(
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address=Web3.to_checksum_address(USDC_ADDRESS),
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abi=usdc_abi
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)
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try:
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decimals = usdc.functions.decimals().call()
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bal = usdc.functions.balanceOf(Web3.to_checksum_address(wallet)).call()
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return bal / (10 ** decimals)
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except Exception as e:
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warn(f"Balance check failed: {e}")
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return 0.0
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def get_pol_balance(wallet: str) -> float:
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w3 = get_w3()
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bal = w3.eth.get_balance(Web3.to_checksum_address(wallet))
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return int(bal) / 1e18
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# =============================================================================
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# APPROVAL CHECK
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# =============================================================================
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def is_approved(token: str, spender: str, wallet: str) -> bool:
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"""Check if spender is approved for token (USDC.e)."""
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w3 = get_w3()
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usdc_abi = [
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{
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"name": "allowance",
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"inputs": [
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{"name": "owner", "type": "address"},
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{"name": "spender", "type": "address"}
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],
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"outputs": [{"name": "", "type": "uint256"}],
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"stateMutability": "view",
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"type": "function"
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}
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]
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usdc = w3.eth.contract(
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address=Web3.to_checksum_address(token),
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abi=usdc_abi
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)
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try:
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allowance = usdc.functions.allowance(
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Web3.to_checksum_address(wallet),
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Web3.to_checksum_address(spender)
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).call()
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return allowance > 0
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except Exception:
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return False
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def approve_token(token: str, spender: str, wallet: str, private_key: str,
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amount_wei: int = 2**256 - 1, max_fee: int = MAX_FEE_PER_GAS):
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"""Approve spender to spend token on behalf of wallet."""
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w3 = get_w3()
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usdc_abi = [
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{
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"name": "approve",
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"inputs": [
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{"name": "spender", "type": "address"},
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{"name": "amount", "type": "uint256"}
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],
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"outputs": [{"name": "", "type": "bool"}],
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"stateMutability": "nonpayable",
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"type": "function"
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}
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]
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usdc = w3.eth.contract(
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address=Web3.to_checksum_address(token),
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abi=usdc_abi
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)
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nonce = get_nonce(wallet)
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build = usdc.functions.approve(
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Web3.to_checksum_address(spender),
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amount_wei
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).build_transaction({
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"from": wallet,
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"nonce": nonce,
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"maxFeePerGas": max_fee,
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"maxPriorityFeePerGas": 25e9,
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"chainId": CHAIN_ID,
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})
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signed = w3.eth.account.sign_transaction(build, private_key)
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tx_hash = send_tx(w3, signed.raw_transaction)
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live(f"Approve tx: {tx_hash}")
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receipt = wait_for_receipt(w3, tx_hash)
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if receipt:
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ok(f"Approved {spender} for {token[:10]}...")
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return True
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warn(f"Approval tx failed: {tx_hash}")
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return False
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def ensure_approvals():
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"""Ensure all required approvals are set before trading."""
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wallet = WALLET
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required = [
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(USDC_ADDRESS, CTF_EXCHANGE),
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(USDC_ADDRESS, NEG_RISK_EXCHANGE),
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(USDC_ADDRESS, ROUTER),
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]
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for token, spender in required:
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if not is_approved(token, spender, wallet):
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warn(f"Missing approval: {spender[:10]} for {token[:10]}")
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ok(f"Approving {spender[:10]}...")
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approve_token(token, spender, wallet, PK)
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time.sleep(5) # Wait for confirmation
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else:
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ok(f"Already approved: {spender[:10]}")
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# =============================================================================
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# ORDER EXECUTION
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# =============================================================================
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def place_buy_order(market_id: str, token_id: str, price: float, shares: float,
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balance: float, private_key: str, wallet: str) -> dict:
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"""
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Place a BUY order on Polymarket CLOB.
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Uses FOK (Fill-Or-Kill) market order to guarantee execution.
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Returns dict with success status and details.
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"""
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w3 = get_w3()
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clob = get_clob()
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cost = round(shares * price, 4)
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if cost > balance:
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return {"success": False, "reason": f"Insufficient balance (${balance:.2f} < ${cost:.2f})"}
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if not is_approved(USDC_ADDRESS, ROUTER, wallet):
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return {"success": False, "reason": "Router approval missing"}
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# --- Market order via CLOB ---
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order_args = MarketOrderArgs(
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token_id=token_id,
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amount=cost, # For BUY: amount is in dollars (USDC)
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side="BUY",
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price=price,
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)
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try:
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# First check allowance
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clob.assert_level_1_auth()
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order_result = clob.create_market_order(order_args)
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live(f"Market order placed: {order_result}")
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except Exception as e:
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return {"success": False, "reason": f"Order failed: {e}"}
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return {
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"success": True,
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"market_id": market_id,
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"token_id": token_id,
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"price": price,
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"shares": shares,
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"cost": cost,
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"order_id": order_result.get("orderID") if isinstance(order_result, dict) else str(order_result),
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}
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def cancel_order(order_id: str) -> bool:
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"""Cancel a specific order by ID."""
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clob = get_clob()
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try:
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clob.cancel(order_id)
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ok(f"Cancelled order: {order_id[:20]}...")
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return True
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except Exception as e:
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warn(f"Cancel failed: {e}")
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return False
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def cancel_all_orders() -> int:
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"""Cancel all open orders. Returns count of cancelled orders."""
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clob = get_clob()
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try:
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result = clob.cancel_all()
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count = result.get("count", 0) if isinstance(result, dict) else 0
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ok(f"Cancelled {count} orders")
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return count
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except Exception as e:
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warn(f"Cancel all failed: {e}")
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return 0
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# =============================================================================
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# LOCATIONS & WEATHER DATA
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# =============================================================================
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LOCATIONS = {
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"nyc": {"lat": 40.7772, "lon": -73.8726, "name": "New York City", "station": "KLGA", "unit": "F", "region": "us"},
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"chicago": {"lat": 41.9742, "lon": -87.9073, "name": "Chicago", "station": "KORD", "unit": "F", "region": "us"},
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"miami": {"lat": 25.7959, "lon": -80.2870, "name": "Miami", "station": "KMIA", "unit": "F", "region": "us"},
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"dallas": {"lat": 32.8471, "lon": -96.8518, "name": "Dallas", "station": "KDAL", "unit": "F", "region": "us"},
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"seattle": {"lat": 47.4502, "lon":-122.3088, "name": "Seattle", "station": "KSEA", "unit": "F", "region": "us"},
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"atlanta": {"lat": 33.6407, "lon": -84.4277, "name": "Atlanta", "station": "KATL", "unit": "F", "region": "us"},
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}
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TIMEZONES = {
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"nyc": "America/New_York", "chicago": "America/Chicago",
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"miami": "America/New_York", "dallas": "America/Chicago",
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"seattle": "America/Los_Angeles", "atlanta": "America/New_York",
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}
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||||
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MONTHS = ["january","february","march","april","may","june",
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"july","august","september","october","november","december"]
|
||||
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import requests
|
||||
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||||
def get_ecmwf(city_slug, dates):
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"""ECMWF via Open-Meteo. Returns dict {date: temp_f}."""
|
||||
loc = LOCATIONS[city_slug]
|
||||
url = (
|
||||
f"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast"
|
||||
f"?latitude={loc['lat']}&longitude={loc['lon']}"
|
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f"&daily=temperature_2m_max&temperature_unit=fahrenheit"
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||||
f"&forecast_days=7&timezone={TIMEZONES.get(city_slug, 'UTC')}"
|
||||
f"&models=ecmwf_ifs025&bias_correction=true"
|
||||
)
|
||||
result = {}
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||||
for attempt in range(3):
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||||
try:
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||||
data = requests.get(url, timeout=(5, 10)).json()
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||||
if "error" not in data:
|
||||
for date, temp in zip(data["daily"]["time"], data["daily"]["temperature_2m_max"]):
|
||||
if date in dates and temp is not None:
|
||||
result[date] = round(temp)
|
||||
break
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||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
if attempt < 2:
|
||||
time.sleep(2)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
warn(f"ECMWF error for {city_slug}: {e}")
|
||||
return result
|
||||
|
||||
def get_metar(city_slug):
|
||||
"""Current observed temperature from METAR station. D+0 only."""
|
||||
loc = LOCATIONS[city_slug]
|
||||
try:
|
||||
url = f"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids={loc['station']}&format=json"
|
||||
data = requests.get(url, timeout=(5, 8)).json()
|
||||
if data and isinstance(data, list):
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||||
temp_c = data[0].get("temp")
|
||||
if temp_c is not None:
|
||||
return round(float(temp_c) * 9/5 + 32)
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
warn(f"METAR error for {city_slug}: {e}")
|
||||
return None
|
||||
|
||||
def get_forecast_snapshot(city_slug, dates):
|
||||
"""Get best temperature forecast for each date. Returns {date: temp_f}."""
|
||||
ecmwf = get_ecmwf(city_slug, dates)
|
||||
today = datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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||||
result = {}
|
||||
for date in dates:
|
||||
best = ecmwf.get(date)
|
||||
best_source = "ecmwf"
|
||||
# METAR for today if available
|
||||
if date == today:
|
||||
metar = get_metar(city_slug)
|
||||
if metar is not None:
|
||||
best = metar
|
||||
best_source = "metar"
|
||||
if best is not None:
|
||||
result[date] = {"temp": best, "source": best_source}
|
||||
return result
|
||||
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
# POLYMARKET
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
def get_polymarket_event(city_slug, month, day, year):
|
||||
slug = f"highest-temperature-in-{city_slug}-on-{month}-{day}-{year}"
|
||||
try:
|
||||
r = requests.get(f"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug={slug}", timeout=(5, 8))
|
||||
data = r.json()
|
||||
if data and isinstance(data, list) and len(data) > 0:
|
||||
return data[0]
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
warn(f"Polymarket API error: {e}")
|
||||
return None
|
||||
|
||||
def get_market_price(market_id):
|
||||
try:
|
||||
r = requests.get(f"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/{market_id}", timeout=(3, 5))
|
||||
data = r.json()
|
||||
prices = json.loads(data.get("outcomePrices", "[0.5,0.5]"))
|
||||
return float(prices[0]), float(prices[1]) if len(prices) > 1 else float(prices[0])
|
||||
except Exception:
|
||||
return None, None
|
||||
|
||||
def parse_temp_range(question):
|
||||
if not question: return None
|
||||
num = r'(-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?)'
|
||||
if re.search(r'or below', question, re.IGNORECASE):
|
||||
m = re.search(num + r'[°]?[FC] or below', question, re.IGNORECASE)
|
||||
if m: return (-999.0, float(m.group(1)))
|
||||
if re.search(r'or higher', question, re.IGNORECASE):
|
||||
m = re.search(num + r'[°]?[FC] or higher', question, re.IGNORECASE)
|
||||
if m: return (float(m.group(1)), 999.0)
|
||||
m = re.search(r'between ' + num + r'-' + num + r'[°]?[FC]', question, re.IGNORECASE)
|
||||
if m: return (float(m.group(1)), float(m.group(2)))
|
||||
m = re.search(r'be ' + num + r'[°]?[FC] on', question, re.IGNORECASE)
|
||||
if m:
|
||||
v = float(m.group(1))
|
||||
return (v, v)
|
||||
return None
|
||||
|
||||
def hours_to_resolution(end_date_str):
|
||||
try:
|
||||
end = datetime.fromisoformat(end_date_str.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
|
||||
return max(0.0, (end - datetime.now(timezone.utc)).total_seconds() / 3600)
|
||||
except Exception:
|
||||
return 999.0
|
||||
|
||||
def in_bucket(forecast, t_low, t_high):
|
||||
if t_low == t_high:
|
||||
return round(float(forecast)) == round(t_low)
|
||||
return t_low <= float(forecast) <= t_high
|
||||
|
||||
def get_condition_id(market_id: str) -> str:
|
||||
"""Get condition ID for a market from Polymarket."""
|
||||
try:
|
||||
r = requests.get(f"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/{market_id}", timeout=(5, 8))
|
||||
data = r.json()
|
||||
return data.get("conditionId", "")
|
||||
except Exception:
|
||||
return ""
|
||||
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
# STATE (local JSON)
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
DATA_DIR = BOT_DIR / "data"
|
||||
DATA_DIR.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
|
||||
MARKETS_DIR = DATA_DIR / "markets"
|
||||
MARKETS_DIR.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
|
||||
STATE_FILE = DATA_DIR / "state_v3.json"
|
||||
|
||||
def load_state():
|
||||
if STATE_FILE.exists():
|
||||
return json.loads(STATE_FILE.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"balance": 0.0,
|
||||
"starting_balance": 0.0,
|
||||
"total_trades": 0,
|
||||
"wins": 0,
|
||||
"losses": 0,
|
||||
"open_orders": {},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def save_state(state):
|
||||
STATE_FILE.write_text(json.dumps(state, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False), encoding="utf-8")
|
||||
|
||||
def market_path(city_slug, date_str):
|
||||
return MARKETS_DIR / f"{city_slug}_{date_str}.json"
|
||||
|
||||
def load_market(city_slug, date_str):
|
||||
p = market_path(city_slug, date_str)
|
||||
if p.exists():
|
||||
return json.loads(p.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
|
||||
return None
|
||||
|
||||
def save_market(market):
|
||||
p = market_path(market["city"], market["date"])
|
||||
p.write_text(json.dumps(market, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False), encoding="utf-8")
|
||||
|
||||
def load_all_markets():
|
||||
markets = []
|
||||
for f in MARKETS_DIR.glob("*.json"):
|
||||
try:
|
||||
markets.append(json.loads(f.read_text(encoding="utf-8")))
|
||||
except Exception:
|
||||
pass
|
||||
return markets
|
||||
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
# SIGMA (weather forecast uncertainty)
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
SIGMA_F = 2.0
|
||||
|
||||
def get_sigma(city_slug):
|
||||
return SIGMA_F # Flat sigma for now; calibration can be added later
|
||||
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
# OPEN POSITIONS from CLOB
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
def get_clob_positions():
|
||||
"""Get all open orders/positions from CLOB."""
|
||||
clob = get_clob()
|
||||
try:
|
||||
orders = clob.get_orders()
|
||||
return orders if orders else []
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
warn(f"Failed to fetch CLOB orders: {e}")
|
||||
return []
|
||||
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
# SCAN & TRADE (one shot)
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
def scan_and_trade():
|
||||
"""
|
||||
One-shot scan: check all cities for trade signals and execute real orders.
|
||||
Returns (new_trades, errors).
|
||||
"""
|
||||
now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
|
||||
state = load_state()
|
||||
balance = get_usdc_balance(WALLET)
|
||||
if balance != state.get("balance"):
|
||||
state["balance"] = balance
|
||||
save_state(state)
|
||||
|
||||
print(f"\n{C.BOLD}{C.CYAN}🌤 Weather Trading Bot v3 — Live Mode{C.RESET}")
|
||||
print("=" * 60)
|
||||
print(f" Wallet: {WALLET[:8]}...{WALLET[-4:]}")
|
||||
print(f" USDC.e: ${balance:.4f}")
|
||||
print(f" POL balance: {get_pol_balance(WALLET):.4f} POL")
|
||||
print(f" Max bet: ${MAX_BET} | Min EV: {MIN_EV*100:.0f}%")
|
||||
print()
|
||||
|
||||
new_trades = 0
|
||||
errors = []
|
||||
|
||||
for city_slug, loc in LOCATIONS.items():
|
||||
print(f" -> {loc['name']}...", end=" ", flush=True)
|
||||
unit_sym = "F"
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
dates = [(now + timedelta(days=i)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") for i in range(4)]
|
||||
forecasts = get_forecast_snapshot(city_slug, dates)
|
||||
time.sleep(0.3)
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
print(f"error ({e})")
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
for i, date in enumerate(dates):
|
||||
dt = datetime.strptime(date, "%Y-%m-%d")
|
||||
event = get_polymarket_event(
|
||||
city_slug,
|
||||
MONTHS[dt.month - 1],
|
||||
dt.day,
|
||||
dt.year
|
||||
)
|
||||
if not event:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
end_date = event.get("endDate", "")
|
||||
hours = hours_to_resolution(end_date) if end_date else 0
|
||||
horizon = f"D+{i}"
|
||||
|
||||
if hours < MIN_HOURS or hours > MAX_HOURS:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
# Parse all outcome buckets from Polymarket
|
||||
outcomes = []
|
||||
for market in event.get("markets", []):
|
||||
question = market.get("question", "")
|
||||
mid = str(market.get("id", ""))
|
||||
volume = float(market.get("volume", 0))
|
||||
rng = parse_temp_range(question)
|
||||
if not rng:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
try:
|
||||
prices = json.loads(market.get("outcomePrices", "[0.5,0.5]"))
|
||||
bid = float(prices[0])
|
||||
ask = float(prices[1]) if len(prices) > 1 else bid
|
||||
except Exception:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
outcomes.append({
|
||||
"question": question,
|
||||
"market_id": mid,
|
||||
"range": rng,
|
||||
"bid": round(bid, 4),
|
||||
"ask": round(ask, 4),
|
||||
"price": round(bid, 4),
|
||||
"spread": round(ask - bid, 4),
|
||||
"volume": round(volume, 0),
|
||||
})
|
||||
|
||||
if not outcomes:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
forecastsnap = forecasts.get(date, {})
|
||||
forecast_temp = forecastsnap.get("temp")
|
||||
best_source = forecastsnap.get("source", "ecmwf")
|
||||
|
||||
if forecast_temp is None:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
sigma = get_sigma(city_slug)
|
||||
best_signal = None
|
||||
|
||||
# Find the bucket that matches our forecast
|
||||
for o in outcomes:
|
||||
t_low, t_high = o["range"]
|
||||
if not in_bucket(forecast_temp, t_low, t_high):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
volume = o["volume"]
|
||||
ask = o["ask"]
|
||||
spread = o["spread"]
|
||||
|
||||
if volume < MIN_VOLUME:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if ask >= MAX_PRICE:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if spread > MAX_SLIPPAGE:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
p = bucket_prob(forecast_temp, t_low, t_high, sigma)
|
||||
ev = calc_ev(p, ask)
|
||||
if ev < MIN_EV:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
kelly = calc_kelly(p, ask)
|
||||
size = bet_size(kelly, balance)
|
||||
if size < 0.50:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
shares = round(size / ask, 2)
|
||||
token_id = get_condition_id(o["market_id"])
|
||||
|
||||
best_signal = {
|
||||
"market_id": o["market_id"],
|
||||
"token_id": token_id,
|
||||
"question": o["question"],
|
||||
"bucket_low": t_low,
|
||||
"bucket_high": t_high,
|
||||
"entry_price": ask,
|
||||
"bid": o["bid"],
|
||||
"spread": spread,
|
||||
"shares": shares,
|
||||
"cost": round(shares * ask, 4),
|
||||
"p": round(p, 4),
|
||||
"ev": round(ev, 4),
|
||||
"kelly": round(kelly, 4),
|
||||
"forecast_temp": forecast_temp,
|
||||
"forecast_src": best_source,
|
||||
"sigma": sigma,
|
||||
"volume": volume,
|
||||
}
|
||||
break # Only one bucket per market
|
||||
|
||||
if best_signal:
|
||||
bucket_label = f"{best_signal['bucket_low']}-{best_signal['bucket_high']}{unit_sym}"
|
||||
print(f"\n {C.BOLD}📍 {loc['name']} {horizon} — {date}{C.RESET}")
|
||||
print(f" {C.CYAN} Forecast: {forecast_temp}°F ({best_source}) | {bucket_label}{C.RESET}")
|
||||
print(f" {C.GREEN} ✅ BUY SIGNAL | ${best_signal['cost']:.2f} @ ${ask:.3f} | "
|
||||
f"EV {best_signal['ev']:+.2f} | Kel {best_signal['kelly']:.2f}{C.RESET}")
|
||||
|
||||
# --- EXECUTE REAL ORDER ---
|
||||
result = place_buy_order(
|
||||
market_id=best_signal["market_id"],
|
||||
token_id=best_signal["token_id"],
|
||||
price=best_signal["entry_price"],
|
||||
shares=best_signal["shares"],
|
||||
balance=balance,
|
||||
private_key=PK,
|
||||
wallet=WALLET,
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
if result["success"]:
|
||||
new_trades += 1
|
||||
state["total_trades"] += 1
|
||||
balance -= best_signal["cost"]
|
||||
|
||||
live(f" [LIVE] BUY {loc['name']} {horizon} | {bucket_label} @ ${best_signal['entry_price']:.3f} "
|
||||
f"| EV {best_signal['ev']:+.2f} | ${best_signal['cost']:.2f}")
|
||||
|
||||
# Save to market record
|
||||
mkt_record = load_market(city_slug, date) or {
|
||||
"city": city_slug,
|
||||
"city_name": loc["name"],
|
||||
"date": date,
|
||||
"unit": "F",
|
||||
"event_end_date": end_date,
|
||||
"status": "open",
|
||||
"position": None,
|
||||
}
|
||||
mkt_record["position"] = {
|
||||
**best_signal,
|
||||
"order_id": result.get("order_id"),
|
||||
"opened_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
|
||||
"status": "open",
|
||||
"closed_at": None,
|
||||
"close_reason": None,
|
||||
"exit_price": None,
|
||||
"pnl": None,
|
||||
}
|
||||
save_market(mkt_record)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
errors.append(f"{loc['name']} {horizon}: {result['reason']}")
|
||||
warn(f" ❌ Order failed: {result['reason']}")
|
||||
else:
|
||||
# No signal — show why
|
||||
for o in outcomes:
|
||||
t_low, t_high = o["range"]
|
||||
if not in_bucket(forecast_temp, t_low, t_high):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
ask = o["ask"]
|
||||
p = bucket_prob(forecast_temp, t_low, t_high, sigma)
|
||||
ev = calc_ev(p, ask)
|
||||
skip(f" {forecast_temp}°F bucket {t_low}-{t_high}F @ ${ask:.3f} EV={ev:.2f} — skipped")
|
||||
break
|
||||
|
||||
print("ok")
|
||||
|
||||
# Save updated balance
|
||||
state["balance"] = round(balance, 4)
|
||||
save_state(state)
|
||||
|
||||
print(f"\n{'=' * 60}")
|
||||
print(f" Scanned: {len(LOCATIONS)} cities")
|
||||
print(f" New trades: {C.GREEN}{new_trades}{C.RESET}")
|
||||
print(f" Errors: {len(errors)}")
|
||||
print(f" Balance: ${balance:.4f}")
|
||||
print(f"{'=' * 60}\n")
|
||||
|
||||
return new_trades, errors
|
||||
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
# STATUS
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
def show_status():
|
||||
"""Show current balance, positions, and open orders."""
|
||||
balance = get_usdc_balance(WALLET)
|
||||
pol_bal = get_pol_balance(WALLET)
|
||||
|
||||
print(f"\n{C.BOLD}{C.CYAN}📊 Bot v3 — Status{C.RESET}")
|
||||
print("=" * 60)
|
||||
print(f" Wallet: {WALLET[:8]}...{WALLET[-4:]}")
|
||||
print(f" USDC.e: ${balance:.4f}")
|
||||
print(f" POL: {pol_bal:.4f}")
|
||||
print()
|
||||
|
||||
# Open orders from CLOB
|
||||
orders = get_clob_positions()
|
||||
if orders:
|
||||
print(f" Open orders: {len(orders)}")
|
||||
for o in orders:
|
||||
print(f" {o.get('side','?')} {o.get('size','?')} @ ${o.get('price','?')} "
|
||||
f"[{o.get('marketID','')[:16]}...]")
|
||||
else:
|
||||
print(f" Open orders: 0")
|
||||
|
||||
# Local market positions
|
||||
markets = load_all_markets()
|
||||
open_pos = [m for m in markets if m.get("position") and m["position"].get("status") == "open"]
|
||||
if open_pos:
|
||||
print(f"\n Open positions (local): {len(open_pos)}")
|
||||
for m in open_pos:
|
||||
pos = m["position"]
|
||||
unit_sym = "F"
|
||||
label = f"{pos['bucket_low']}-{pos['bucket_high']}{unit_sym}"
|
||||
print(f" {m['city_name']} {m['date']} | {label} | "
|
||||
f"entry ${pos['entry_price']:.3f} | cost ${pos.get('cost',0):.2f}")
|
||||
else:
|
||||
print(f"\n Open positions: 0")
|
||||
|
||||
print(f"{'=' * 60}\n")
|
||||
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
# MAIN LOOP
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
MONITOR_INTERVAL = 600 # 10 minutes
|
||||
|
||||
def run_loop():
|
||||
print(f"\n{C.BOLD}{C.CYAN}🌤 Weather Trading Bot v3 — LIVE{C.RESET}")
|
||||
print("=" * 60)
|
||||
print(f" Wallet: {WALLET[:8]}...{WALLET[-4:]}")
|
||||
print(f" Cities: {len(LOCATIONS)}")
|
||||
print(f" Max bet: ${MAX_BET} | Kelly fraction: {KELLY_FRAC}")
|
||||
print(f" Min EV: {MIN_EV*100:.0f}%")
|
||||
print(f" Scan: every {SCAN_INTERVAL//60} min")
|
||||
print(f" Monitor: every {MONITOR_INTERVAL//60} min")
|
||||
print()
|
||||
|
||||
# Check approvals on startup
|
||||
ok("Checking approvals...")
|
||||
ensure_approvals()
|
||||
|
||||
last_full_scan = 0
|
||||
|
||||
while True:
|
||||
now_ts = time.time()
|
||||
now_str = datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")
|
||||
|
||||
if now_ts - last_full_scan >= SCAN_INTERVAL:
|
||||
print(f"[{now_str}] Full scan...")
|
||||
try:
|
||||
new_trades, errors = scan_and_trade()
|
||||
last_full_scan = time.time()
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
warn(f"Scan error: {e}")
|
||||
time.sleep(60)
|
||||
continue
|
||||
else:
|
||||
print(f"[{now_str}] Monitoring...")
|
||||
time.sleep(MONITOR_INTERVAL)
|
||||
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
# CLI
|
||||
# =============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||
if not PK or not WALLET:
|
||||
print("ERROR: PK and WALLET must be set in weatherbot/.env")
|
||||
sys.exit(1)
|
||||
|
||||
cmd = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "scan"
|
||||
|
||||
if cmd == "run":
|
||||
run_loop()
|
||||
elif cmd == "scan":
|
||||
scan_and_trade()
|
||||
elif cmd == "status":
|
||||
show_status()
|
||||
elif cmd == "cancel":
|
||||
market_id = sys.argv[2] if len(sys.argv) > 2 else None
|
||||
if market_id:
|
||||
print(f"Cancelling orders for market: {market_id}")
|
||||
else:
|
||||
count = cancel_all_orders()
|
||||
print(f"Cancelled {count} orders")
|
||||
else:
|
||||
print(f"Usage: python bot_v3.py [scan|run|status|cancel]")
|
||||
+5
-4
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@@ -0,0 +1,179 @@
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Reference in New Issue
Block a user