copybot: live paper feed [skip ci]

validate_timing: the holder gate went 37->34->14->0 across runs and the
log said only '0 copy-positive holders' — which condition bit took an
hour of hand queries to reconstruct. Now every run prints the
first-failure breakdown (today: inactive_30d 48, PASS 34, copy_pnl<=0
20, trust_roi<=0 7, trust_wr<55% 3).

skill.py: a BH threshold of 0.0 is NOT a broken bar — it is 'nobody
cleared FDR'. With 1,207 simultaneous tests the rank-1 bar is p<=4.1e-5
and the best wallet is 1.7e-4, so a z~3 record is no longer
distinguishable from luck. The message now says that with the numbers.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

HANDOFF.md

@@ -41,6 +41,27 @@ LIVE 2026-07-24 @d4fff27), #25 Study E position-scope conviction
 rolling net-USD aggregate; flip = operator's call). #18 (empty-cond copies unsettleable) closed same day: RTDS seed
 enrichment + falsy-cond repair pass + 1h alarm.
 
+## LIVE BOT PAUSED (user, 2026-07-27)
+`LIVE_CONFIRM` UNSET — wwf-copybot-live reboots into `geocheck --idle`
+(no clone, no book, no orders). Key + funder secrets untouched; re-arm =
+`flyctl secrets set LIVE_CONFIRM="TRADE LIVE" -a wwf-copybot-live`.
+State at pause: book $48.55 · $22.48 free · 15 open ($26.07, five at
+93-98c) · realized −$27.31. Open positions now ride to resolution
+UNMANAGED (no >=90c band exits; platform auto-redeems winners). /live
+feed is frozen at this state until re-armed.
+
+**WHY it was paused — the finding that triggered it:** Polymarket enforces
+a **5-share minimum per order** ("Size (1.47) lower than the minimum: 5").
+That is a PRICE-dependent dollar floor: at the book's $1 braked stake
+(4% of $48.55, halved by the drawdown brake, floored to the $1 venue
+min) only <=20c markets are reachable, so every 40-90c signal fired an
+order that could not succeed — 25 venue rejections in 3 days, while 204
+other signals were correctly floor-rejected as sub-conviction. Fixed at
+the gate (copytrade.MIN_SHARES=5.0 blocks with the shares/dollars
+needed instead of firing doomed orders), but the CAPITAL fact stands:
+**~$113 equity at 4%, or ~$225 under the drawdown brake, is the minimum
+viable size to trade 90c markets.** Sizing/funding is the USER's call.
+
 ## Operating boundary (user, 2026-07-13 — standing)
 **Full autonomy on the bots**; the real-money bot **stays ARMED**. Never
 touch the private key, Discord alerts webhook ROTATED 2026-07-19 (#3 closed),

copybot.py

@@ -1746,6 +1746,13 @@ class Copybot:
             # without copies (2026-07-13 user report). n = lifetime copies,
             # n24 = fills in the window.
             "lag": (lambda t: {"n": lag.get("n", 0), "n24": t[0],
+                               # window empty -> we show the LIFETIME mean, so
+                               # SAY so; the tile used to label it "24h" and
+                               # quietly report a number dragged by the retired
+                               # poll era (2026-07-27 user report)
+                               "basis": ("24h" if t[1] is not None
+                                         else "lifetime" if lag.get("n")
+                                         else "none"),
                                "avg_s": (round(t[1], 1) if t[1] is not None
                                          else (round(lag["sum_s"] / lag["n"], 1)
                                                if lag.get("n") else None)),
@@ -2347,7 +2354,12 @@ class Copybot:
         if not rec:
             return 0, None, None
         n = len(rec)
-        return n, sum(r[1] for r in rec) / n, sum(r[2] for r in rec) / n
+        # MEDIAN, not mean (2026-07-27): one 269s early-rollout outlier made a
+        # 3s bot read as 25s. The tile is a health signal, not an accounting
+        # total, so the typical fill is the honest summary.
+        lags = sorted(r[1] for r in rec)
+        med = lags[n // 2] if n % 2 else (lags[n // 2 - 1] + lags[n // 2]) / 2
+        return n, med, sum(r[2] for r in rec) / n
 
     def summary(self, cycle):
         bank = self.cfg["bankroll_usd"]

copybot_fills.jsonl

@@ -1012,3 +1012,323 @@
 {"ts": 1785166552.5, "side": "SELL", "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286", "shares": 57.3569, "price": 0.94, "fee": 0.097, "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785166553.6, "side": "SELL", "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286", "shares": 14.4991, "price": 0.93, "fee": 0.0283, "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785166601.9, "side": "SELL", "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286", "shares": 0.054, "price": 0.91, "fee": 0.0001, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785170383.3, "side": "SELL", "token": "72380260523779452108747496691590035418744958761813904753644512394906005337193", "shares": 21.8545, "price": 0.95, "fee": 0.0311, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785170796.1, "side": "SELL", "token": "72380260523779452108747496691590035418744958761813904753644512394906005337193", "shares": 17.4748, "price": 0.95, "fee": 0.0249, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785175094.4, "side": "SELL", "token": "31844421127747452247920361772593140342967161564902355004027803194678743954899", "shares": 24.8546, "price": 0.996, "fee": 0.003, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785191856.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "Yes", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "detect_lag_s": 1.3, "their_price": 0.41, "my_price": 0.41, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 168.23, "cost": 68.97, "fee": 1.2208, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.39, "ba": 0.41, "spread": 0.02, "bid5c": 1334.92, "ask5c": 2013.34}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785202412.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 Week of July 27 2026?", "detect_lag_s": 9.4, "their_price": 0.77, "my_price": 0.77, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 29.17, "cost": 22.46, "fee": 0.155, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.67, "ba": 0.77, "spread": 0.1, "bid5c": 58.85, "ask5c": 77.0}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785203532.0, "side": "SELL", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "shares": 1.895, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0006, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785205294.9, "side": "SELL", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "shares": 2.0824, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0006, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785205661.0, "side": "SELL", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "shares": 4.1024, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0012, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785208726.4, "side": "SELL", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "shares": 4.1856, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0012, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785221119.7, "side": "SELL", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "shares": 0.2166, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0001, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785235545.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "86679239858518906873492617617658695793360100462726529532253226646142736420327", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $270 in July?", "detect_lag_s": 4.4, "their_price": 0.776, "my_price": 0.776, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 82.51, "cost": 64.03, "fee": 0.4303, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.645, "ba": 0.971, "spread": 0.326, "bid5c": 433.24, "ask5c": 3339.76}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785242656.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "80808145657906667113795891925826034935213900714245802195985269085181895227480", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Unit FDV above $2B one day after launch?", "detect_lag_s": 5.3, "their_price": 0.8132, "my_price": 0.8132, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 32.2, "cost": 26.19, "fee": 0.1467, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.78, "ba": 0.97, "spread": 0.19, "bid5c": 36.03, "ask5c": 261.92}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785242663.6, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "64694885593632675781317938696736040286617580212029967143105168259299625512290", "name": "1kto1m", "outcome": "Down", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8AM ET", "detect_lag_s": 0.6, "their_price": 0.4473, "my_price": 0.4473, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 242.63, "cost": 108.52, "fee": 1.7995, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.44, "ba": 0.45, "spread": 0.01, "bid5c": 694.88, "ask5c": 1085.21}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785248873.1, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "115022349425230056420599576774053150964082288276346642481948600625364544056404", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "outcome": "No Hoodwink", "title": "Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner", "detect_lag_s": 51.1, "their_price": 0.8758, "my_price": 0.8758, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 154.51, "cost": 135.31, "fee": 0.5043, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.819, "ba": 0.833, "spread": 0.014, "bid5c": 544.3, "ask5c": 194.81}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785249409.0, "side": "SELL", "token": "115022349425230056420599576774053150964082288276346642481948600625364544056404", "shares": 154.51, "price": 1.0, "fee": 0.0, "mode": "paper"}
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copybot_fills.live.jsonl

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copybot_ignored_exits.live.jsonl

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copybot_missed_archive.jsonl

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+{"ts": 1784451912, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191", "cond": "0xa6480903e54c68f2ee79cacb7861dfcc9b473e8b07d6dcaf2c9923034a5fb56f", "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.41, "stake": 98.79, "reason": "order rejected: no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": -14.02, "settled": 1785348943, "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "exit_price": 0.366}
+{"ts": 1784453998, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "20413144546134673104026764291663662744630163650305273852347168329867810784203", "cond": "0x909f37860be24ec17981866ed02eb7e0779226585a18faf89e2b2201ca443236", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET", "outcome": "Up", "price": 0.3669, "stake": 98.79, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": -92.71, "settled": 1784454324, "name": "1kto1m", "exit_price": 0.0304}
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copybot_missed_archive.live.jsonl

@@ -73,3 +73,7 @@
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 {"ts": 1783908976, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "44955835255986870213886955575315970674806073263991248758756749076487124445148", "cond": "0xa164172b7cee74420cfce554c3a265b2553cb80e48b36e286e67f302b6574712", "title": "Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.8163, "stake": 1.0, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": -0.0, "settled": 1785012975, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_price": 0.822}
 {"ts": 1783908977, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "108947296508063592085718442826411169359443176266922838741305348631169975990701", "cond": "0x88e5fd695215f57adc94fb184ea54e639bd6fa6a71e49666d7529adb442a51ae", "title": "Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "Ilbirs eSports", "price": 0.4724, "stake": 1.0, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "lost", "pnl": -1.02, "settled": 1783909043, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_checked": true}
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+{"ts": 1783939156, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "72663413633237870742152602912076949024714881200491601361514812636170232854563", "cond": "0xd50d0276f9b6c57d7a1b23be8be23a8dcdffed0aebae867de372b26593a9a238", "title": "Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.898, "stake": 1.0, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 0.08, "settled": 1784386262, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_price": 0.9728}

copybot_rejects.live.jsonl

@@ -358,3 +358,49 @@
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+{"ts": 1785189887.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "90894528034844239433098400057663273138419716408873356788213029508523177653209", "cond": "0xe51b0cdb413eb9a18243e70c1f33705cdab18f4149b867f32f05650e758d8070", "usd": 16.66, "price": 0.740133, "reason": "$17 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785191883.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489", "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5", "usd": 18.7, "price": 0.55, "reason": "$19 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785191883.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "cond": "0x7f0d84b155c484b801f2cba68eb0f9ef8b2a0a54b7e6bb0fa53a1778964f53fd", "usd": 25.9, "price": 0.4, "reason": "$26 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785191896.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489", "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5", "usd": 16.62, "price": 0.5599999932611308, "reason": "$17 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785192499.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "114112791648091992484961360791130871882442300768649687759021814005678770195744", "cond": "0xd2bfe443d711e8b98256a572769876088a7a8d59b8a118be246c561931431d2a", "usd": 15.5, "price": 0.3, "reason": "$16 < conviction floor $28", "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 28?", "mode": "live"}

copytrade.py

@@ -33,6 +33,12 @@ CLOB_API = "https://clob.polymarket.com"
 POLYGON_CHAIN_ID = 137
 CONFIRM_PHRASE = "TRADE LIVE"
 
+# Polymarket rejects orders under this many shares regardless of dollar
+# value ("Size (1.47) lower than the minimum: 5", observed live 2026-07-27).
+# It makes the real floor PRICE-dependent: a 90c market needs $4.50, a 20c
+# market $1.00 — which is why a $1-stake book can only trade deep longshots.
+MIN_SHARES = 5.0
+
 DEFAULT_CONFIG = {
     "mode": "paper",                 # "paper" or "live"
     "poll_seconds": 12,              # how often to check each wallet
@@ -431,6 +437,17 @@ class CopyTrader:
         if allowed < r["min_order_usd"]:
             return 0.0, (f"capped to ${allowed:.2f} < min order "
                          f"${r['min_order_usd']:.2f} (caps)")
+        # VENUE SHARE MINIMUM (2026-07-27): Polymarket rejects any order
+        # under MIN_SHARES shares — "Size (1.47) lower than the minimum: 5"
+        # — which is a PRICE-dependent dollar floor the $-only gate above
+        # cannot see. At a $1 stake that caps us to <=20c markets; every
+        # 40-90c signal fired a doomed order and booked a venue rejection.
+        # Skip honestly instead, and say what the bet would have needed.
+        need = MIN_SHARES * price
+        if allowed < need - 1e-9:
+            return 0.0, (f"below venue {MIN_SHARES:g}-share minimum: "
+                         f"${allowed:.2f} at {price:.2f} = "
+                         f"{allowed / price:.2f} shares (needs ${need:.2f})")
         return allowed, None
 
     # -- process one of their trades --

fly.leanbot.toml

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+# wwf-leanbot — Study C Stage-2 maker-lean PAPER harness (research silo).
+# No keys, no orders, code baked in image. The screened wallet set is
+# published nightly by maker_set.py — the box never screens itself.
+# Verdict binds to #26; graded nightly on the Mac (grade_lean.py).
+app = "wwf-leanbot"
+primary_region = "arn"
+
+[build]
+  dockerfile = "research/leanbot.Dockerfile"
+
+[[mounts]]
+  source = "lean"
+  destination = "/data"
+
+# read-only paper feed (GET /feed, CORS-open)
+[http_service]
+  internal_port = 8080
+  force_https = true
+  auto_stop_machines = false
+  auto_start_machines = true
+  min_machines_running = 1
+
+[[restart]]
+  policy = "always"
+
+[[vm]]
+  size = "shared-cpu-1x"
+  memory = "256mb"

history/reconcile.csv

@@ -1,2 +1,12 @@
 date,live_bt_ev,live_fill_gap,live_filled_ev,live_filled_n,live_missed_ev,live_missed_n,live_realized,live_rejected_ev,live_rejected_n,live_unseen_ev,live_unseen_n,n,paper_bt_ev,paper_fill_gap,paper_filled_ev,paper_filled_n,paper_missed_ev,paper_missed_n,paper_rejected_ev,paper_rejected_n,paper_unseen_ev,paper_unseen_n,replica_pnl
 2026-07-24,3797,33,-250,14,1915,40,-16.58,0,0,2133,73,127,3797,593,548,23,299,37,0,0,2951,67,109.05
+2026-07-27,4030,43,-248,22,1839,56,-27.24,-300,3,2739,101,182,4030,615,1054,41,237,48,-300,3,3039,90,200.53
+2026-07-28,4443,43,-248,22,1908,68,-27.31,-241,4,3024,111,205,4443,617,996,46,543,60,-300,3,3204,96,170.53
+2026-07-29,5143,-12,-58,29,2504,84,-27.31,-341,5,3038,139,257,5143,613,1375,75,1062,71,-249,9,2955,102,44.11
+2026-07-30,4943,-12,-58,29,2318,87,-27.31,-273,7,2956,172,295,4943,657,1519,79,702,77,-247,14,2969,125,82.87
+2026-08-02,-447,22,226,6,-92,12,-27.31,-132,4,-449,22,44,-447,76,-120,16,-172,13,-340,7,185,8,48.98
+2026-08-03,4843,-27,279,26,1133,76,-27.31,-117,9,3548,219,330,4843,-5,288,88,940,101,362,31,3253,110,104.43
+2026-08-04,4550,-24,179,27,1133,76,-27.31,-117,9,3355,224,336,4550,-1,260,91,696,105,162,33,3431,107,95.6
+2026-08-05,6284,-28,173,26,1099,75,-27.31,-117,9,5129,248,358,6284,14,23,95,2267,111,364,40,3631,112,113.86
+2026-08-06,6226,-28,173,26,1117,76,-27.31,-117,9,5053,251,362,6226,21,-121,98,2202,116,315,42,3830,106,114.59
+2026-08-07,6080,-28,173,26,1117,76,-27.31,-117,9,4907,260,371,6080,75,-104,102,2239,121,503,44,3442,104,107.09

live/cache.py

@@ -64,7 +64,30 @@ def conv_cutoff(sizes, q=CONV_PCTILE):
     return s[f] if f + 1 >= len(s) else s[f] + (s[f + 1] - s[f]) * (k - f)
 
 _lock = threading.Lock()
-_con = duckdb.connect(DB)
+
+
+def _connect(db=None, tries=240, wait=15):
+    """duckdb is SINGLE-WRITER and this module connects at IMPORT time, so a
+    daily/nightly overlap used to raise straight out of `import cache` —
+    killing forward.py and, through nightly.sh's `set -e`, every grader
+    behind it (2026-07-27 and again 07-28: the graders silently never ran).
+    Wait the other writer out instead. 60 min, because the daily holds
+    this lock for its WHOLE collect+score phase (~30 min at 1.5 wallets/s
+    over ~2,600 wallets) — a 6-min wait died against it on 2026-07-29."""
+    db = db or DB
+    for i in range(tries):
+        try:
+            return duckdb.connect(db)
+        except Exception as e:
+            if "lock" not in str(e).lower() or i == tries - 1:
+                raise
+            if i == 0:
+                print(f"[cache] {os.path.basename(db)} locked by another "
+                      f"writer — waiting…", flush=True)
+            time.sleep(wait)
+
+
+_con = _connect()
 _con.execute("""CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bets(
     wallet TEXT, cond TEXT, asset TEXT, won BOOLEAN, p DOUBLE, res_t BIGINT,
     size DOUBLE, src TEXT, ts BIGINT, resolved BOOLEAN)""")

live/copybot_live_real.json

@@ -5,18 +5,19 @@
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 63.02,
- "cash": 18.78,
- "deployed": 29.84,
+ "cash": 22.48,
+ "deployed": 26.07,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": -27.24,
+ "realized": -27.31,
  "adjustments": 9.44,
  "ledger_drift": 0.03,
  "open_count": 15,
- "fees_paid": 3.61,
+ "fees_paid": 3.62,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
   "n": 127,
   "n24": 0,
+  "basis": "lifetime",
   "avg_s": 25.4,
   "avg_slip_pct": 0.0213,
   "window_h": 24
@@ -2120,6 +2121,100 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785102626,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "11175144790294018473883407522370233749764592141943374533997532765754332298932",
+   "cond": "0x1a53f4e1df8653751aa2865bdf33129c9fba1b51a6ba3a4397c330894265f3fb",
+   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "Down",
+   "price": 0.82,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.994",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.12,
+   "settled": 1785194132,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9243
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785192499,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "80566427864683264408132975495806825930535536706191596908698304900201437338755",
+   "cond": "0xfcaddf3ef2d9f976e0c9673ed54c380bdc3338d02ab0fa8aa7f22960f594e964",
+   "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on July 28?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.65,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xa2d10630247477eb272c5a0ed40a7d8a82f013468",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.34,
+   "settled": 1785192769,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.88
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785191856,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489",
+   "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5",
+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.55,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "price moved 0.47\u21920.55",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785191856,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
+   "cond": "0x7f0d84b155c484b801f2cba68eb0f9ef8b2a0a54b7e6bb0fa53a1778964f53fd",
+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.39,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.996",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785130838,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "79670417518965340166637380137891741750752210241055933511013597289989925437928",
+   "cond": "0xe682172dec68535c41b59d24d80803f4522b6ec3bcd6a7343d32c0a720bfec53",
+   "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "Up",
+   "price": 0.89,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.999",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": -0.03,
+   "settled": 1785184789,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.8669
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785182494,
+   "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
+   "token": "115289753838857732506008126031819274849142757215567510934288229988887639669500",
+   "cond": "0xb4b758f84d9c2acd555dfe98b2ce9b817ef3935a955688254545d290f5d5baa4",
+   "title": "Fritz vs. Bergs: Match O/U 22.5",
+   "outcome": "Under",
+   "price": 0.61,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xe91744d4b0b591902a6b4e052905ed05e6e56d512",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.13,
+   "settled": 1785182797,
+   "name": "Kruto2027",
+   "exit_price": 0.7
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785166433,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2130,10 +2225,27 @@
    "price": 0.74,
    "stake": 1.0,
    "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xdeb8c90090edaa13a833d8e808b20f321941b5741",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.26,
+   "settled": 1785176778,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9363
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139619,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
+   "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
+   "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.77,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xb23969cb2a9cd69d6a772789997b02201afd4881f",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.29,
+   "settled": 1785172789,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
+   "exit_price": 1.0
   },
   {
    "ts": 1785162758,
@@ -2244,21 +2356,6 @@
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_price": 0.9537
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785139619,
-   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
-   "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
-   "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
-   "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
-   "outcome": "T1",
-   "price": 0.77,
-   "stake": 1.0,
-   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xb23969cb2a9cd69d6a772789997b02201afd4881f",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "JuiceFarm"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785127066,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2275,21 +2372,6 @@
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_price": 0.9873
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785130838,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "79670417518965340166637380137891741750752210241055933511013597289989925437928",
-   "cond": "0xe682172dec68535c41b59d24d80803f4522b6ec3bcd6a7343d32c0a720bfec53",
-   "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 27?",
-   "outcome": "Up",
-   "price": 0.89,
-   "stake": 1.0,
-   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.999",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785128918,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2382,21 +2464,6 @@
    "settled": null,
    "name": "0xbadaf319"
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785102626,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "11175144790294018473883407522370233749764592141943374533997532765754332298932",
-   "cond": "0x1a53f4e1df8653751aa2865bdf33129c9fba1b51a6ba3a4397c330894265f3fb",
-   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 27?",
-   "outcome": "Down",
-   "price": 0.82,
-   "stake": 1.0,
-   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.994",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785097442,
    "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -2995,80 +3062,16 @@
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null,
    "name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784885070,
-   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
-   "token": "34383281909044259756215667723509413820839811815716463480957480797279993360122",
-   "cond": "0xa2822aa2467aca2d04968c26fd5444d88fb54c4dc5f8eac7d27d84a494ac8b50",
-   "title": "LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner",
-   "outcome": "Team WE",
-   "price": 0.65,
-   "stake": 2.42,
-   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf108bfade0b5c26134b80f55a6f4d9451bfd28517",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": 1.09,
-   "settled": 1784887137,
-   "name": "AIcAIc",
-   "exit_price": 0.95
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784557345,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "67913011466625262359588841481742993497498081452195278087275807248301608894093",
-   "cond": "0x6abe5fe01ca113b7d6040604a8619cadf181d4e4a6d8db3a082542417af806fd",
-   "title": "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?",
-   "outcome": "Yes",
-   "price": 0.824,
-   "stake": 2.41,
-   "reason": "thin book ($4 within 5c < $50)",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": 0.12,
-   "settled": 1784887134,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "exit_price": 0.8729
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784438883,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "18859662100986706442931434084612043934725834523854128874928569872427180020630",
-   "cond": "0x4906333de7e9252101ded75f9bac59e07d158573381c89afe6f719dd3baadefd",
-   "title": "Will Western Digital (WDC) Q4 exabytes shipped be above 255?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.83,
-   "stake": 2.0,
-   "reason": "thin book ($17 within 5c < $50)",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": 0.09,
-   "settled": 1784887133,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "exit_price": 0.8753
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784252512,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "40157116416490623239679394844195379171683621861511438824716931745872340078199",
-   "cond": "0x2e5100b759d2e6da51f0d457028d8e42b833f4808edd8ff95e3d242aa1ef6102",
-   "title": "Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.8699,
-   "stake": 2.45,
-   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": 0.03,
-   "settled": 1784887132,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "exit_price": 0.8858
   }
  ],
- "missed_pnl": 701.92,
+ "missed_pnl": 702.78,
  "last_fill": {
-  "ts": 1785162655,
+  "ts": 1785175095,
   "side": "SELL",
-  "price": 0.93,
-  "shares": 0.41,
-  "title": "Will LAB reach $24 before 2027?",
-  "outcome": "No"
+  "price": 0.963,
+  "shares": 0.25,
+  "title": "Amazon 2026 capex above $180B?",
+  "outcome": "Yes"
  },
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
@@ -3077,8 +3080,8 @@
    "wins": 7,
    "open_cost": 13.33,
    "open_n": 5,
-   "miss_n": 93,
-   "miss_pnl": 1733.56,
+   "miss_n": 96,
+   "miss_pnl": 1734.25,
    "last_ts": 1785104758
   },
   "AIcAIc": {
@@ -3147,8 +3150,8 @@
    "wins": 0,
    "open_cost": 0.0,
    "open_n": 0,
-   "miss_n": 8,
-   "miss_pnl": 6.78,
+   "miss_n": 9,
+   "miss_pnl": 6.91,
    "last_ts": 1784497466
   },
   "JuiceFarm": {
@@ -3158,7 +3161,7 @@
    "open_cost": 0.0,
    "open_n": 0,
    "miss_n": 4,
-   "miss_pnl": 0.15,
+   "miss_pnl": 0.44,
    "last_ts": 1785009025
   },
   "0x41558102": {
@@ -3182,5 +3185,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1785166433
+ "updated": 1785194134
 }

live/copybot_live_real_full.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
  "mode": "live",
- "updated": 1785166433,
+ "updated": 1785194134,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
    "realized": -1.02,
@@ -8,8 +8,8 @@
    "wins": 7,
    "open_cost": 13.33,
    "open_n": 5,
-   "miss_n": 93,
-   "miss_pnl": 1733.56,
+   "miss_n": 96,
+   "miss_pnl": 1734.25,
    "last_ts": 1785104758
   },
   "AIcAIc": {
@@ -78,8 +78,8 @@
    "wins": 0,
    "open_cost": 0.0,
    "open_n": 0,
-   "miss_n": 8,
-   "miss_pnl": 6.78,
+   "miss_n": 9,
+   "miss_pnl": 6.91,
    "last_ts": 1784497466
   },
   "JuiceFarm": {
@@ -89,7 +89,7 @@
    "open_cost": 0.0,
    "open_n": 0,
    "miss_n": 4,
-   "miss_pnl": 0.15,
+   "miss_pnl": 0.44,
    "last_ts": 1785009025
   },
   "0x41558102": {
@@ -2531,8 +2531,8 @@
    "exit_price": null,
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null,
-   "sold_shares": 0.55,
-   "sold_proceeds": 0.51689595,
+   "sold_shares": 0.8,
+   "sold_proceeds": 0.7573787175,
    "end_ts": 1809043200
   },
   {
@@ -2823,11 +2823,105 @@
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null,
    "end_ts": 1798761600,
-   "sold_shares": 1.44,
-   "sold_proceeds": 1.33638768
+   "sold_shares": 5.17,
+   "sold_proceeds": 4.7980029900000005
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785102626,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "11175144790294018473883407522370233749764592141943374533997532765754332298932",
+   "cond": "0x1a53f4e1df8653751aa2865bdf33129c9fba1b51a6ba3a4397c330894265f3fb",
+   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "Down",
+   "price": 0.82,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.994",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.12,
+   "settled": 1785194132,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9243
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785192499,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "80566427864683264408132975495806825930535536706191596908698304900201437338755",
+   "cond": "0xfcaddf3ef2d9f976e0c9673ed54c380bdc3338d02ab0fa8aa7f22960f594e964",
+   "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on July 28?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.65,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xa2d10630247477eb272c5a0ed40a7d8a82f013468",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.34,
+   "settled": 1785192769,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.88
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785191856,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489",
+   "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5",
+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.55,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "price moved 0.47\u21920.55",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785191856,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
+   "cond": "0x7f0d84b155c484b801f2cba68eb0f9ef8b2a0a54b7e6bb0fa53a1778964f53fd",
+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.39,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.996",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785130838,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "79670417518965340166637380137891741750752210241055933511013597289989925437928",
+   "cond": "0xe682172dec68535c41b59d24d80803f4522b6ec3bcd6a7343d32c0a720bfec53",
+   "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "Up",
+   "price": 0.89,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.999",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": -0.03,
+   "settled": 1785184789,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.8669
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785182494,
+   "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
+   "token": "115289753838857732506008126031819274849142757215567510934288229988887639669500",
+   "cond": "0xb4b758f84d9c2acd555dfe98b2ce9b817ef3935a955688254545d290f5d5baa4",
+   "title": "Fritz vs. Bergs: Match O/U 22.5",
+   "outcome": "Under",
+   "price": 0.61,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xe91744d4b0b591902a6b4e052905ed05e6e56d512",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.13,
+   "settled": 1785182797,
+   "name": "Kruto2027",
+   "exit_price": 0.7
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785166433,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2838,10 +2932,27 @@
    "price": 0.74,
    "stake": 1.0,
    "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xdeb8c90090edaa13a833d8e808b20f321941b5741",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.26,
+   "settled": 1785176778,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9363
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139619,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
+   "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
+   "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.77,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xb23969cb2a9cd69d6a772789997b02201afd4881f",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.29,
+   "settled": 1785172789,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
+   "exit_price": 1.0
   },
   {
    "ts": 1785162758,
@@ -2952,21 +3063,6 @@
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_price": 0.9537
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785139619,
-   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
-   "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
-   "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
-   "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
-   "outcome": "T1",
-   "price": 0.77,
-   "stake": 1.0,
-   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xb23969cb2a9cd69d6a772789997b02201afd4881f",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "JuiceFarm"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785127066,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2983,21 +3079,6 @@
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_price": 0.9873
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785130838,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "79670417518965340166637380137891741750752210241055933511013597289989925437928",
-   "cond": "0xe682172dec68535c41b59d24d80803f4522b6ec3bcd6a7343d32c0a720bfec53",
-   "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 27?",
-   "outcome": "Up",
-   "price": 0.89,
-   "stake": 1.0,
-   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.999",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785128918,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -3090,21 +3171,6 @@
    "settled": null,
    "name": "0xbadaf319"
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785102626,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "11175144790294018473883407522370233749764592141943374533997532765754332298932",
-   "cond": "0x1a53f4e1df8653751aa2865bdf33129c9fba1b51a6ba3a4397c330894265f3fb",
-   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 27?",
-   "outcome": "Down",
-   "price": 0.82,
-   "stake": 1.0,
-   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.994",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785097442,
    "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",

live/skill.py

@@ -148,7 +148,19 @@ def main():
     json.dump(rows, open(os.path.join(HERE, OUT.replace(".json", "_scored.json")), "w"))
 
     val = sum(1 for r in skilled if r["tier"] == "validated")
-    print(f"\nscored {len(rows):,} wallets · BH@{int(FDR_Q*100)}% threshold p<= {thresh:.1e}")
+    # A zero threshold is NOT a broken bar — it is BH reporting that nothing
+    # cleared FDR. Say so, with the numbers that make it checkable (2026-08-02:
+    # "p<= 0.0e+00" read like a defect and cost an hour of forensics).
+    if thresh > 0:
+        print(f"\nscored {len(rows):,} wallets · BH@{int(FDR_Q*100)}% "
+              f"threshold p<= {thresh:.1e}")
+    else:
+        _ps = sorted(r["pval"] for r in rows) or [float("nan")]
+        print(f"\nscored {len(rows):,} wallets · BH@{int(FDR_Q*100)}%: "
+              f"NOBODY CLEARED FDR — best p={_ps[0]:.2e} vs the rank-1 bar "
+              f"p<={FDR_Q/max(1,len(rows)):.2e}. Not a bug: with "
+              f"{len(rows):,} simultaneous tests the bar tightens, so a "
+              f"z~3 wallet is no longer distinguishable from luck.")
     print(f"SKILLED: {len(skilled)} ({val} validated OOS, {len(skilled)-val} candidate) "
           f"-> watch_skilled.json\n")
     hdr = f"{'tier':>10}{'z':>6}{'z_oos':>6}{'rec':>12}{'win%':>6}{'avgP':>6}{'0.2-0.4':>8}  wallet"

live/validate_timing.py

@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ copy_pnl (fees, mirror exits) remains the other selection leg, and held stats
 are still computed for display.
 """
 
+import collections
 import json
 import os
 import ssl
@@ -376,6 +377,7 @@ def main():
         stats = list(ex.map(safe_stats, conv))
     cut30 = time.time() - 30 * 86400
     sharps = []
+    gate_fails = collections.Counter()
     for c, ds in zip(conv, stats):
         if ds is None:
             continue
@@ -397,12 +399,26 @@ def main():
         # clear majority with positive flat-stake ROI on a real sample, so the edge
         # survives live latency and isn't longshot variance or all sell-timing. A
         # light lead floor drops true sub-hour snipers.
-        if ((ds["last_trade"] or 0) >= cut30 and ds["copy_pnl"] > 0
-                and tr["n"] >= MIN_HELD and tr["wr"] >= MIN_HELD_WR and tr["roi"] > 0
-                and (c["med_lead_h"] is None or c["med_lead_h"] >= MIN_LEAD_H)):
+        # FIRST-FAILURE TALLY (2026-08-02): the gate went 37->34->14->0 across
+        # runs and the log said only "0 copy-positive holders" — reconstructing
+        # WHICH condition bit took an hour of hand queries. Count them here so
+        # any future zero explains itself in daily.log.
+        checks = (("inactive_30d", (ds["last_trade"] or 0) >= cut30),
+                  ("copy_pnl<=0", ds["copy_pnl"] > 0),
+                  (f"trust_n<{MIN_HELD}", tr["n"] >= MIN_HELD),
+                  (f"trust_wr<{MIN_HELD_WR:.0%}", tr["wr"] >= MIN_HELD_WR),
+                  ("trust_roi<=0", tr["roi"] > 0),
+                  (f"lead<{MIN_LEAD_H}h", c["med_lead_h"] is None
+                   or c["med_lead_h"] >= MIN_LEAD_H))
+        failed = [name for name, ok in checks if not ok]
+        if failed:
+            gate_fails[failed[0]] += 1
+        else:
+            gate_fails["PASS"] += 1
             sharps.append(c)
 
     sharps.sort(key=lambda c: c["copy_pnl"], reverse=True)
+    print(f"   gate first-failure: {dict(gate_fails.most_common())}")
     print(f"copy-positive holders (copy>0, trust_n>={MIN_HELD}, trust_wr>={MIN_HELD_WR:.0%}, "
           f"trust_roi>0 over {TRUST_DAYS}d, active, lead>={MIN_LEAD_H}h): "
           f"{len(sharps)} of {len(conv)}\n")

live/watch_skilled.json

@@ -2,11 +2,11 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xf419556a9758214628edff29dce8f39a8aa13ce7",
     "name": "2j289uUmAio7ap245975",
-    "weight": 0.0619,
+    "weight": 0.0595,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 17.91,
-    "z_oos": 9.49,
-    "n": 2085,
+    "z": 17.93,
+    "z_oos": 9.44,
+    "n": 2081,
     "win_rate": 69.9,
     "avg_entry": 0.51,
     "band_0204": 0.13
@@ -14,19 +14,19 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4",
     "name": "Siziriv",
-    "weight": 0.0515,
+    "weight": 0.0482,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 14.89,
-    "z_oos": 7.55,
-    "n": 2450,
-    "win_rate": 50.8,
+    "z": 14.53,
+    "z_oos": 7.22,
+    "n": 2488,
+    "win_rate": 50.7,
     "avg_entry": 0.44,
-    "band_0204": 0.02
+    "band_0204": 0.03
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x2257901897e83d39e778fa86d568dc1cd9a2dca2",
     "name": "iuii899889",
-    "weight": 0.0345,
+    "weight": 0.0331,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 9.99,
     "z_oos": 6.55,
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xda24f0caf5766fc36df8ac2f6ae3a567b71a9f1f",
     "name": "Thewinwin",
-    "weight": 0.0317,
+    "weight": 0.0305,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 9.18,
     "z_oos": 6.84,
@@ -50,7 +50,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x14d2bf01e3e7bac9b1799265db3c7d8a993dfa3e",
     "name": "8998yueyye",
-    "weight": 0.0315,
+    "weight": 0.0303,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 9.12,
     "z_oos": 5.97,
@@ -62,43 +62,31 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xf1a437dc0ac31303fbc288d1b1dbaf7e7f4c9779",
     "name": "0xd0C09b7e25f88eFfde2",
-    "weight": 0.0288,
+    "weight": 0.0275,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 8.34,
-    "z_oos": 6.62,
-    "n": 2237,
-    "win_rate": 37.1,
+    "z": 8.29,
+    "z_oos": 6.53,
+    "n": 2243,
+    "win_rate": 37.0,
     "avg_entry": 0.3,
     "band_0204": 0.25
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0xf508f2dde64316531b4eab2f0956636b9dd63a0e",
-    "name": "0xf508f2dd\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.0287,
+    "wallet": "0x47946decc4e4aafee23df84d6bf1a4b3c6c2ba33",
+    "name": "0x47946Decc4e4AAFee23df84D6Bf1A4B3C6c2ba33-1783372491387",
+    "weight": 0.0265,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 8.29,
-    "z_oos": 5.3,
-    "n": 2181,
-    "win_rate": 21.2,
-    "avg_entry": 0.15,
-    "band_0204": 0.23
-  },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x1b44945f8992fcea2b43034557e47d11827fd8de",
-    "name": "BrickThrower",
-    "weight": 0.027,
-    "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 7.81,
-    "z_oos": 5.87,
-    "n": 2414,
-    "win_rate": 44.0,
-    "avg_entry": 0.38,
-    "band_0204": 0.24
+    "z": 8.0,
+    "z_oos": 5.23,
+    "n": 2287,
+    "win_rate": 27.6,
+    "avg_entry": 0.21,
+    "band_0204": 0.26
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046",
     "name": "hfdffdhr",
-    "weight": 0.0253,
+    "weight": 0.0243,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 7.31,
     "z_oos": 4.99,
@@ -108,33 +96,57 @@
     "band_0204": 0.2
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x47946decc4e4aafee23df84d6bf1a4b3c6c2ba33",
-    "name": "0x47946Decc4e4AAFee23df84D6Bf1A4B3C6c2ba33-1783372491387",
-    "weight": 0.0234,
+    "wallet": "0x5f45951d39b39a29d84d7154bb38883a602c12c8",
+    "name": "Kiong",
+    "weight": 0.0222,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 6.76,
-    "z_oos": 2.64,
-    "n": 1668,
-    "win_rate": 28.6,
-    "avg_entry": 0.22,
-    "band_0204": 0.27
+    "z": 6.7,
+    "z_oos": 3.87,
+    "n": 918,
+    "win_rate": 37.7,
+    "avg_entry": 0.28,
+    "band_0204": 0.43
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x5da978e2df4d17bfe7214c017e2151d4b827ce46",
     "name": "Skovie",
-    "weight": 0.0231,
+    "weight": 0.0217,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 6.69,
-    "z_oos": 6.55,
-    "n": 998,
-    "win_rate": 31.0,
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@@ -230,127 +230,103 @@
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@@ -362,7 +338,7 @@
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@@ -374,7 +350,7 @@
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@@ -383,22 +359,10 @@
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@@ -408,21 +372,33 @@
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   {
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@@ -434,7 +410,7 @@
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@@ -444,33 +420,45 @@
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@@ -482,19 +470,31 @@
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@@ -506,7 +506,7 @@
   {
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@@ -518,7 +518,7 @@
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@@ -527,10 +527,22 @@
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     "wallet": "0x46b2f8a865a3572a435813e747e22cce0e835977",
     "name": "quantssss",
-    "weight": 0.0114,
+    "weight": 0.0109,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.29,
     "z_oos": 2.37,
@@ -539,10 +551,22 @@
     "avg_entry": 0.46,
     "band_0204": 0.39
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x97026acc2fcbfc70420f3792ba612e5abb67ca89",
+    "name": "SERINAITE",
+    "weight": 0.0109,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 3.29,
+    "z_oos": 2.76,
+    "n": 2026,
+    "win_rate": 36.0,
+    "avg_entry": 0.33,
+    "band_0204": 0.43
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x536be02af900fe046fa708c8059c04f737a2cee3",
     "name": "fill-or-fok-me",
-    "weight": 0.0113,
+    "weight": 0.0109,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.28,
     "z_oos": 2.24,
@@ -554,7 +578,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x3db61e79ee7afbd4ed101a9fc497c05f679acb34",
     "name": "0x3db61e79\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.0113,
+    "weight": 0.0109,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.28,
     "z_oos": 2.93,
@@ -564,21 +588,21 @@
     "band_0204": 0.13
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x4f7d834c2292157e8c1c34653a60dff3cd8ab3ff",
-    "name": "52463434",
-    "weight": 0.0112,
+    "wallet": "0xec1e4ae315d80985ad25b2f6fe4dfc2941310d9c",
+    "name": "samoel97",
+    "weight": 0.0109,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.23,
-    "z_oos": 1.06,
-    "n": 1104,
-    "win_rate": 40.2,
-    "avg_entry": 0.36,
-    "band_0204": 0.21
+    "z": 3.27,
+    "z_oos": 2.3,
+    "n": 813,
+    "win_rate": 75.3,
+    "avg_entry": 0.73,
+    "band_0204": 0.04
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x9807ef11efccde6399f6e2fa410de357092192f4",
     "name": "0x9807ef11\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.0111,
+    "weight": 0.0107,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.22,
     "z_oos": 2.09,
@@ -590,67 +614,67 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x52e9ddafda7ae033b1dd4553c7acdb9b3effb5cd",
     "name": "muUren",
-    "weight": 0.0111,
+    "weight": 0.0106,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.2,
-    "z_oos": 2.02,
-    "n": 2274,
-    "win_rate": 52.8,
+    "z": 3.19,
+    "z_oos": 2.08,
+    "n": 2479,
+    "win_rate": 53.2,
     "avg_entry": 0.5,
-    "band_0204": 0.23
+    "band_0204": 0.22
+  },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x25d8c73a5ebeb6db934d8da68592ba3d4f1ca71f",
+    "name": "none910",
+    "weight": 0.0106,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 3.18,
+    "z_oos": 2.36,
+    "n": 1505,
+    "win_rate": 47.5,
+    "avg_entry": 0.44,
+    "band_0204": 0.09
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x90347085ff4edd5d6305eea5746d239784b0f7df",
     "name": "7887",
-    "weight": 0.0109,
+    "weight": 0.0104,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.16,
-    "z_oos": 1.99,
+    "z": 3.14,
+    "z_oos": 2.03,
     "n": 2371,
     "win_rate": 42.1,
     "avg_entry": 0.4,
     "band_0204": 0.18
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x25d8c73a5ebeb6db934d8da68592ba3d4f1ca71f",
-    "name": "none910",
-    "weight": 0.0109,
+    "wallet": "0x4f7d834c2292157e8c1c34653a60dff3cd8ab3ff",
+    "name": "52463434",
+    "weight": 0.0104,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.15,
-    "z_oos": 2.4,
-    "n": 1502,
-    "win_rate": 47.5,
-    "avg_entry": 0.44,
-    "band_0204": 0.09
+    "z": 3.13,
+    "z_oos": 0.94,
+    "n": 1101,
+    "win_rate": 40.1,
+    "avg_entry": 0.36,
+    "band_0204": 0.21
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0xec1e4ae315d80985ad25b2f6fe4dfc2941310d9c",
-    "name": "samoel97",
-    "weight": 0.0107,
+    "wallet": "0x40cc3feb8acaab0aa7fbd5dc7e2eb5f2f8fc1be7",
+    "name": "Ariyeh",
+    "weight": 0.0101,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.11,
-    "z_oos": 3.13,
-    "n": 606,
-    "win_rate": 76.1,
-    "avg_entry": 0.73,
-    "band_0204": 0.04
-  },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x97026acc2fcbfc70420f3792ba612e5abb67ca89",
-    "name": "SERINAITE",
-    "weight": 0.0103,
-    "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 2.97,
-    "z_oos": 2.77,
-    "n": 1803,
-    "win_rate": 36.6,
-    "avg_entry": 0.34,
-    "band_0204": 0.44
+    "z": 3.05,
+    "z_oos": 4.04,
+    "n": 830,
+    "win_rate": 32.3,
+    "avg_entry": 0.28,
+    "band_0204": 0.29
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x55154a54cd74db752540dcd663a30cdb5c00eb8b",
     "name": "AK47ForLIFE",
-    "weight": 0.01,
+    "weight": 0.0096,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 2.89,
     "z_oos": 2.74,
@@ -658,5 +682,41 @@
     "win_rate": 41.5,
     "avg_entry": 0.38,
     "band_0204": 0.35
+  },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0xb8cb308c9f16069474ef04f4681ee0e6f1a78cbd",
+    "name": "0xb8cb308c\u2026",
+    "weight": 0.0094,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 2.84,
+    "z_oos": 2.92,
+    "n": 2320,
+    "win_rate": 51.9,
+    "avg_entry": 0.49,
+    "band_0204": 0.16
+  },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x1d949489f736378cbde40db18c093c5cff459100",
+    "name": "BullishBarb",
+    "weight": 0.0094,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 2.83,
+    "z_oos": 1.31,
+    "n": 2107,
+    "win_rate": 53.4,
+    "avg_entry": 0.51,
+    "band_0204": 0.25
+  },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0xde0463ea7f611b065e8ab06bbfbddad75e6dfa37",
+    "name": "mwenya",
+    "weight": 0.0093,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 2.81,
+    "z_oos": 2.36,
+    "n": 2163,
+    "win_rate": 49.7,
+    "avg_entry": 0.47,
+    "band_0204": 0.15
   }
 ]

research/README.md

@@ -25,6 +25,21 @@ anything on the live bot"):
 - **Every study gets one instrument that does not share the scorer's
   assumptions** — the surge paper harness (chain-graded from day one) is
   what caught the bug. Divergence between instruments is signal, not noise.
+- **DEFINITION LAW (2026-07-28, from #26): a tape scorer and its harness
+  must be shown to name the SAME EVENTS before any tape verdict is
+  trusted.** Study C scored +$2.17/lean on tape and −$2.26/fill at a real
+  book with entry price ruled out (median ask premium +1c, 72% fill).
+  The crossing diagnostic (lean_crossing_diag.py) found only 51% of the
+  harness's attempts had a matching tape crossing, and 84% of the tape's
+  crossings were invisible to a live bot — the two were measuring
+  different signals under one name. Exposure comes from triggers that
+  depend on RECONSTRUCTED STATE (running inventory, rolling windows,
+  cumulative flow): the scorer sees a whole day, the bot sees from boot.
+  Point-in-time triggers (one print, one burst) are not exposed, which is
+  why Study D's harness matched its Stage-1 definition and C's did not.
+  For any state-dependent trigger the crossing diagnostic — not the P&L —
+  is the FIRST check, and a harness should warm-start its state from tape
+  rather than from zero.
 - **DATA LAW (2026-07-22): tests are additive, never subtractive.** Raw
   streams (tape, attempts, markouts, settles, meta snapshots) are
   append-only; analysis opens them read-only; no script rewrites or

research/forward_ledger.jsonl

@@ -76,3 +76,79 @@
 {"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-25 20:41 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 7020, "fills": 1246, "pending": 75, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 778.29, "wins": 581, "ev_per_fill": 0.62, "hit": 0.466}, "0.07": {"events": 4411, "fills": 573, "pending": 27, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 5192.88, "wins": 274, "ev_per_fill": 9.06, "hit": 0.478}, "0.1": {"events": 3146, "fills": 340, "pending": 15, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 5558.45, "wins": 171, "ev_per_fill": 16.35, "hit": 0.503}}
 {"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-25 20:41 UTC", "triggers": 44, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 14, "misses": 30, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1442.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "worst": {"fills": 14, "misses": 30, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1442.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
 {"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-25 20:41 UTC", "screened": 1081, "leans": 7165, "follow_small": {"n": 4709, "pending": 853, "pnl": -16418.34, "ev_per_lean": -3.49, "hit": 0.575}, "mid_report": {"n": 969, "pending": 189, "pnl": 2597.06, "ev_per_lean": 2.68, "hit": 0.621}, "fade_whale": {"n": 316, "pending": 83, "pnl": -1053.18, "ev_per_lean": -3.33, "hit": 0.421}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 3567, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 937, "misses": 2626, "pending": 0, "refunds": 4, "pnl": 862.13, "wins": 535, "ev_per_fill": 0.92, "hit": 0.571}, "worst": {"fills": 937, "misses": 2626, "pending": 0, "refunds": 4, "pnl": 422.1, "wins": 535, "ev_per_fill": 0.45, "hit": 0.571}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 15, "pnl": -378.33}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 17, "pnl": 200.6}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 32, "pnl": 322.81}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 8387, "fills": 1519, "pending": 83, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 768.74, "wins": 714, "ev_per_fill": 0.51, "hit": 0.47}, "0.07": {"events": 5254, "fills": 698, "pending": 26, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 5085.34, "wins": 336, "ev_per_fill": 7.29, "hit": 0.481}, "0.1": {"events": 3753, "fills": 420, "pending": 15, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 5804.78, "wins": 210, "ev_per_fill": 13.82, "hit": 0.5}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "triggers": 57, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 16, "misses": 41, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 2352.0, "wins": 2, "ev_per_fill": 147.0, "hit": 0.125}, "worst": {"fills": 16, "misses": 41, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 2352.0, "wins": 2, "ev_per_fill": 147.0, "hit": 0.125}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "screened": 1062, "leans": 8306, "follow_small": {"n": 5958, "pending": 398, "pnl": -1957.38, "ev_per_lean": -0.33, "hit": 0.577}, "mid_report": {"n": 1326, "pending": 76, "pnl": 2165.88, "ev_per_lean": 1.63, "hit": 0.606}, "fade_whale": {"n": 462, "pending": 19, "pnl": -535.53, "ev_per_lean": -1.16, "hit": 0.433}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 3521, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 759, "misses": 2658, "pending": 97, "refunds": 7, "pnl": 4292.57, "wins": 439, "ev_per_fill": 5.66, "hit": 0.578}, "worst": {"fills": 759, "misses": 2658, "pending": 97, "refunds": 7, "pnl": 3797.88, "wins": 439, "ev_per_fill": 5.0, "hit": 0.578}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 12, "pnl": -253.11}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 12, "pnl": -355.65}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 11, "pnl": 59.58}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 8473, "fills": 938, "pending": 669, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -3779.46, "wins": 439, "ev_per_fill": -4.03, "hit": 0.468}, "0.07": {"events": 5295, "fills": 404, "pending": 295, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1964.68, "wins": 182, "ev_per_fill": -4.86, "hit": 0.45}, "0.1": {"events": 3662, "fills": 220, "pending": 152, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1185.93, "wins": 102, "ev_per_fill": -5.39, "hit": 0.464}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "triggers": 54, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 10, "misses": 44, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1030.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "worst": {"fills": 10, "misses": 44, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1030.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "screened": 1338, "leans": 10375, "follow_small": {"n": 5148, "pending": 2651, "pnl": 21905.0, "ev_per_lean": 4.26, "hit": 0.577}, "mid_report": {"n": 1385, "pending": 602, "pnl": 8224.1, "ev_per_lean": 5.94, "hit": 0.614}, "fade_whale": {"n": 392, "pending": 169, "pnl": -4101.82, "ev_per_lean": -10.46, "hit": 0.395}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-27", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 993, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 189, "misses": 722, "pending": 77, "refunds": 5, "pnl": 112.46, "wins": 116, "ev_per_fill": 0.6, "hit": 0.614}, "worst": {"fills": 189, "misses": 722, "pending": 77, "refunds": 5, "pnl": 74.74, "wins": 116, "ev_per_fill": 0.4, "hit": 0.614}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 1, "pnl": 10.78}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 4, "pnl": -410.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 1, "pnl": 147.0}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-27", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 5309, "fills": 517, "pending": 495, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 2958.48, "wins": 243, "ev_per_fill": 5.72, "hit": 0.47}, "0.07": {"events": 2996, "fills": 207, "pending": 180, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 1611.25, "wins": 100, "ev_per_fill": 7.78, "hit": 0.483}, "0.1": {"events": 2002, "fills": 100, "pending": 100, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 1052.39, "wins": 52, "ev_per_fill": 10.52, "hit": 0.52}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-27", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "triggers": 20, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 7, "misses": 12, "pending": 1, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 1279.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 182.71, "hit": 0.143}, "worst": {"fills": 7, "misses": 12, "pending": 1, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 1279.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 182.71, "hit": 0.143}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-27", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "screened": 1535, "leans": 3103, "follow_small": {"n": 1522, "pending": 813, "pnl": 8007.61, "ev_per_lean": 5.26, "hit": 0.591}, "mid_report": {"n": 351, "pending": 235, "pnl": -902.06, "ev_per_lean": -2.57, "hit": 0.578}, "fade_whale": {"n": 78, "pending": 80, "pnl": 103.99, "ev_per_lean": 1.33, "hit": 0.359}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-28 17:48 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 3522, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 760, "misses": 2657, "pending": 97, "refunds": 8, "pnl": 3756.49, "wins": 438, "ev_per_fill": 4.94, "hit": 0.576}, "worst": {"fills": 760, "misses": 2657, "pending": 97, "refunds": 8, "pnl": 3262.03, "wins": 438, "ev_per_fill": 4.29, "hit": 0.576}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 12, "pnl": -253.11}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 12, "pnl": -355.65}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 11, "pnl": 59.58}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-28 17:48 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 8473, "fills": 940, "pending": 669, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -3792.27, "wins": 440, "ev_per_fill": -4.03, "hit": 0.468}, "0.07": {"events": 5291, "fills": 405, "pending": 295, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -2065.43, "wins": 182, "ev_per_fill": -5.1, "hit": 0.449}, "0.1": {"events": 3660, "fills": 220, "pending": 152, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1185.93, "wins": 102, "ev_per_fill": -5.39, "hit": 0.464}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-28 17:48 UTC", "triggers": 53, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 11, "misses": 42, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1133.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "worst": {"fills": 11, "misses": 42, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1133.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-28 17:48 UTC", "screened": 1338, "leans": 10375, "follow_small": {"n": 5173, "pending": 2622, "pnl": 22204.66, "ev_per_lean": 4.29, "hit": 0.577}, "mid_report": {"n": 1389, "pending": 598, "pnl": 8497.32, "ev_per_lean": 6.12, "hit": 0.615}, "fade_whale": {"n": 392, "pending": 169, "pnl": -4101.82, "ev_per_lean": -10.46, "hit": 0.395}}
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+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-08-03", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 2235, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 662, "misses": 1509, "pending": 63, "refunds": 1, "pnl": 5294.69, "wins": 403, "ev_per_fill": 8.0, "hit": 0.609}, "worst": {"fills": 662, "misses": 1509, "pending": 63, "refunds": 1, "pnl": 4944.52, "wins": 403, "ev_per_fill": 7.47, "hit": 0.609}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 16, "pnl": 501.7}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 3, "pnl": -52.59}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 13, "pnl": -724.5}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-08-03", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 7879, "fills": 1533, "pending": 1, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -186.73, "wins": 713, "ev_per_fill": -0.12, "hit": 0.465}, "0.07": {"events": 4120, "fills": 531, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 3619.57, "wins": 248, "ev_per_fill": 6.82, "hit": 0.467}, "0.1": {"events": 2636, "fills": 253, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 3171.44, "wins": 123, "ev_per_fill": 12.54, "hit": 0.486}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-08-03", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "triggers": 39, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 7, "misses": 25, "pending": 7, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -721.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "worst": {"fills": 7, "misses": 25, "pending": 7, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -721.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-08-03", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "screened": 2712, "leans": 8026, "follow_small": {"n": 5106, "pending": 1053, "pnl": 15190.15, "ev_per_lean": 2.97, "hit": 0.597}, "mid_report": {"n": 1161, "pending": 277, "pnl": 58.26, "ev_per_lean": 0.05, "hit": 0.582}, "fade_whale": {"n": 307, "pending": 102, "pnl": -2554.54, "ev_per_lean": -8.32, "hit": 0.417}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-08-04", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 3255, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 1001, "misses": 2188, "pending": 55, "refunds": 11, "pnl": 980.73, "wins": 576, "ev_per_fill": 0.98, "hit": 0.575}, "worst": {"fills": 1001, "misses": 2188, "pending": 55, "refunds": 11, "pnl": 663.78, "wins": 576, "ev_per_fill": 0.66, "hit": 0.575}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 18, "pnl": -391.78}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 6, "pnl": 230.85}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 6, "pnl": 554.22}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-08-04", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 7997, "fills": 24, "pending": 1501, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -851.82, "wins": 11, "ev_per_fill": -35.49, "hit": 0.458}, "0.07": {"events": 4345, "fills": 11, "pending": 556, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -652.15, "wins": 4, "ev_per_fill": -59.29, "hit": 0.364}, "0.1": {"events": 2891, "fills": 7, "pending": 248, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -483.45, "wins": 2, "ev_per_fill": -69.06, "hit": 0.286}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-08-04", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "triggers": 68, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 19, "misses": 49, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 543.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 28.58, "hit": 0.053}, "worst": {"fills": 19, "misses": 49, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 543.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 28.58, "hit": 0.053}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-08-04", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "screened": 2853, "leans": 11130, "follow_small": {"n": 7428, "pending": 996, "pnl": 13966.48, "ev_per_lean": 1.88, "hit": 0.591}, "mid_report": {"n": 1907, "pending": 179, "pnl": 6117.75, "ev_per_lean": 3.21, "hit": 0.607}, "fade_whale": {"n": 513, "pending": 41, "pnl": 4327.9, "ev_per_lean": 8.44, "hit": 0.435}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-08-05", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 1430, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 420, "misses": 989, "pending": 20, "refunds": 1, "pnl": -250.11, "wins": 232, "ev_per_fill": -0.6, "hit": 0.552}, "worst": {"fills": 420, "misses": 989, "pending": 20, "refunds": 1, "pnl": -503.55, "wins": 232, "ev_per_fill": -1.2, "hit": 0.552}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 8, "pnl": 68.47}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 4, "pnl": 101.01}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-08-05", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 4192, "fills": 829, "pending": 5, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 6808.55, "wins": 389, "ev_per_fill": 8.21, "hit": 0.469}, "0.07": {"events": 2264, "fills": 293, "pending": 3, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 1472.43, "wins": 136, "ev_per_fill": 5.03, "hit": 0.464}, "0.1": {"events": 1435, "fills": 139, "pending": 1, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 664.08, "wins": 68, "ev_per_fill": 4.78, "hit": 0.489}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-08-05", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "triggers": 27, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 11, "misses": 16, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 867.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 78.82, "hit": 0.091}, "worst": {"fills": 11, "misses": 16, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 867.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 78.82, "hit": 0.091}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-08-05", "computed_at": "2026-08-05 13:21 UTC", "screened": 3100, "leans": 5369, "follow_small": {"n": 3669, "pending": 338, "pnl": -2422.98, "ev_per_lean": -0.66, "hit": 0.594}, "mid_report": {"n": 917, "pending": 86, "pnl": 258.64, "ev_per_lean": 0.28, "hit": 0.576}, "fade_whale": {"n": 340, "pending": 13, "pnl": 4708.55, "ev_per_lean": 13.85, "hit": 0.476}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-08-03", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 2237, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 665, "misses": 1507, "pending": 64, "refunds": 1, "pnl": 5431.0, "wins": 404, "ev_per_fill": 8.17, "hit": 0.608}, "worst": {"fills": 665, "misses": 1507, "pending": 64, "refunds": 1, "pnl": 5058.18, "wins": 404, "ev_per_fill": 7.61, "hit": 0.608}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 16, "pnl": 501.7}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 3, "pnl": -52.59}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 13, "pnl": -724.5}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-08-03", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 7879, "fills": 1533, "pending": 1, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -186.73, "wins": 713, "ev_per_fill": -0.12, "hit": 0.465}, "0.07": {"events": 4121, "fills": 531, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 3619.57, "wins": 248, "ev_per_fill": 6.82, "hit": 0.467}, "0.1": {"events": 2636, "fills": 253, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 3171.44, "wins": 123, "ev_per_fill": 12.54, "hit": 0.486}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-08-03", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "triggers": 42, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 7, "misses": 28, "pending": 7, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -721.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "worst": {"fills": 7, "misses": 28, "pending": 7, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -721.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-08-03", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "screened": 2712, "leans": 8026, "follow_small": {"n": 5145, "pending": 1014, "pnl": 15181.22, "ev_per_lean": 2.95, "hit": 0.597}, "mid_report": {"n": 1167, "pending": 271, "pnl": 106.49, "ev_per_lean": 0.09, "hit": 0.583}, "fade_whale": {"n": 307, "pending": 102, "pnl": -2554.54, "ev_per_lean": -8.32, "hit": 0.417}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-08-04", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 3258, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 1007, "misses": 2189, "pending": 51, "refunds": 11, "pnl": 1454.34, "wins": 579, "ev_per_fill": 1.44, "hit": 0.575}, "worst": {"fills": 1007, "misses": 2189, "pending": 51, "refunds": 11, "pnl": 1152.64, "wins": 579, "ev_per_fill": 1.14, "hit": 0.575}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 18, "pnl": -391.78}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 6, "pnl": 230.85}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 6, "pnl": 554.22}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-08-04", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 7997, "fills": 24, "pending": 1501, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -851.82, "wins": 11, "ev_per_fill": -35.49, "hit": 0.458}, "0.07": {"events": 4349, "fills": 11, "pending": 556, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -652.15, "wins": 4, "ev_per_fill": -59.29, "hit": 0.364}, "0.1": {"events": 2892, "fills": 7, "pending": 248, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -483.45, "wins": 2, "ev_per_fill": -69.06, "hit": 0.286}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-08-04", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "triggers": 67, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 18, "misses": 49, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 646.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 35.89, "hit": 0.056}, "worst": {"fills": 18, "misses": 49, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 646.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 35.89, "hit": 0.056}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-08-04", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "screened": 2853, "leans": 11130, "follow_small": {"n": 7555, "pending": 869, "pnl": 15000.19, "ev_per_lean": 1.99, "hit": 0.592}, "mid_report": {"n": 1924, "pending": 162, "pnl": 6075.96, "ev_per_lean": 3.16, "hit": 0.606}, "fade_whale": {"n": 516, "pending": 38, "pnl": 4722.41, "ev_per_lean": 9.15, "hit": 0.438}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-08-05", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 1430, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 435, "misses": 994, "pending": 0, "refunds": 1, "pnl": 670.21, "wins": 245, "ev_per_fill": 1.54, "hit": 0.563}, "worst": {"fills": 435, "misses": 994, "pending": 0, "refunds": 1, "pnl": 414.21, "wins": 245, "ev_per_fill": 0.95, "hit": 0.563}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 8, "pnl": 68.47}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 5, "pnl": 236.1}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-08-05", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 4192, "fills": 829, "pending": 5, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 6808.55, "wins": 389, "ev_per_fill": 8.21, "hit": 0.469}, "0.07": {"events": 2264, "fills": 293, "pending": 3, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 1472.43, "wins": 136, "ev_per_fill": 5.03, "hit": 0.464}, "0.1": {"events": 1434, "fills": 139, "pending": 1, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 664.08, "wins": 68, "ev_per_fill": 4.78, "hit": 0.489}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-08-05", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "triggers": 27, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 10, "misses": 17, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 970.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 97.0, "hit": 0.1}, "worst": {"fills": 10, "misses": 17, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 970.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 97.0, "hit": 0.1}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-08-05", "computed_at": "2026-08-06 21:23 UTC", "screened": 3100, "leans": 5369, "follow_small": {"n": 3891, "pending": 116, "pnl": -878.19, "ev_per_lean": -0.23, "hit": 0.594}, "mid_report": {"n": 977, "pending": 26, "pnl": -193.46, "ev_per_lean": -0.2, "hit": 0.572}, "fade_whale": {"n": 352, "pending": 1, "pnl": 4719.61, "ev_per_lean": 13.41, "hit": 0.474}}

research/grade_lag.py

@@ -20,6 +20,9 @@ STATE_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lag_state.pull.json")
 ATT_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lag_attempts.pull.jsonl")
 SET_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lag_settles.pull.jsonl")
 FLYCTL = shutil.which("flyctl") or "/opt/homebrew/bin/flyctl"
+# #27 freeze: v2 scores ONLY fills at/after this instant. v1 fills are
+# not reusable for the band verdict (the band was found by slicing them).
+V2_FREEZE_TS = 1785200000        # 2026-07-27 ~19:33Z, the commit that ships it
 
 
 def sftp(remote, local):
@@ -120,7 +123,31 @@ def main():
         print(f"[grade_lag] OBSERVATIONAL: median ask premium "
               f"{st.median(prem)*100:+.1f}c over {len(prem)} attempts "
               f"(kill-switch: >= +8c across 3 days)")
-    print("[grade_lag] verdict binds to the Study D pre-registration")
+    # ── #27 v2: the 15-40c complement band, forward fills only ───────────
+    import guards
+    led = []
+    try:
+        for ln in open(LEDGER):
+            try:
+                led.append(json.loads(ln))
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    print("[grade_lag] " + guards.line("v1 ALL-BANDS", guards.cuts(led),
+                                       pass_ev=4.0))
+    v2 = [r for r in led if r.get("ts", 0) >= V2_FREEZE_TS
+          and 0.15 <= (r.get("price") or 0) < 0.40]
+    print("[grade_lag] " + guards.line("v2 BAND 15-40c", guards.cuts(v2),
+                                       pass_ev=8.0))
+    for lo, hi, tag in ((0.0, 0.15, "<15c"), (0.40, 0.70, "40-70c"),
+                        (0.70, 1.01, ">=70c")):
+        ctl = [r for r in led if r.get("ts", 0) >= V2_FREEZE_TS
+               and lo <= (r.get("price") or 0) < hi]
+        if ctl:
+            print("[grade_lag]   control " + guards.line(tag, guards.cuts(ctl)))
+    print("[grade_lag] verdict binds to the Study D pre-registration (v1) "
+          "and #27 (v2 band; PASS needs EV>=+$8 AND all guards clear)")
     return 0
 
 

research/grade_lean.py

@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Nightly chain-truth grading of the maker-lean harness (wwf-leanbot).
+
+Pulls /data/lean_state.json + lean_attempts.jsonl + lean_settles.jsonl off
+the box (read-only), re-grades every settle with CTF payout vectors,
+appends to research/lean_paper_ledger.jsonl (keyed asset+ts, idempotent),
+and prints the pre-registered readouts for #26: paper-leg EV/fill WITH
+the shared concentration guards (guards.py — ex-best-day, ex-top5,
+top-event share; a headline PASS that fails them is CONCENTRATED and does
+not graduate), plus the OBSERVATIONAL kill-switch — the median ask
+premium over the lean-side print (>= 8c over 3 days = the tape's entry
+was a mirage, no paper sample needed)."""
+import json
+import os
+import shutil
+import statistics as st
+import subprocess
+import sys
+
+HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
+LEDGER = os.path.join(HERE, "lean_paper_ledger.jsonl")
+STATE_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_state.pull.json")
+ATT_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_attempts.pull.jsonl")
+SET_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_settles.pull.jsonl")
+FLYCTL = shutil.which("flyctl") or "/opt/homebrew/bin/flyctl"
+
+
+def sftp(remote, local):
+    subprocess.run([FLYCTL, "ssh", "sftp", "get", remote, local + ".new",
+                    "-a", "wwf-leanbot"], capture_output=True,
+                   timeout=600, stdin=subprocess.DEVNULL)
+    if os.path.exists(local + ".new") and os.path.getsize(local + ".new") > 0:
+        os.replace(local + ".new", local)
+        return True
+    try:
+        os.remove(local + ".new")
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    return False
+
+
+def main():
+    ok = sftp("/data/lean_state.json", STATE_PULL)
+    sftp("/data/lean_attempts.jsonl", ATT_PULL)
+    sftp("/data/lean_settles.jsonl", SET_PULL)
+    if not ok:
+        print("[grade_lean] box unreachable or no state yet — skip")
+        return 0
+    stt = json.load(open(STATE_PULL))
+    sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(HERE, "..", "live"))
+    import payouts
+    have = set()
+    ledger_rows = 0
+    try:
+        for ln in open(LEDGER):
+            try:
+                d = json.loads(ln)
+                have.add((d["asset"], d["ts"]))
+                ledger_rows += 1
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    settled = stt.get("settled", [])
+    if os.path.exists(SET_PULL):       # durable log beats trimmed state
+        seen = {(s["asset"], s["ts"]) for s in settled}
+        for ln in open(SET_PULL):
+            try:
+                s = json.loads(ln)
+                if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in seen:
+                    settled.append(s)
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    new = [s for s in settled if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in have]
+    if new:
+        payouts.ensure(sorted({s["cond"] for s in new if s.get("cond")}))
+    graded = flips = 0
+    with open(LEDGER, "a") as fh:
+        for s in new:
+            t = payouts.truth(s.get("cond"), s.get("asset")) \
+                if s.get("cond") else None
+            pay = s["payout"] if t is None else t
+            pnl = round(s["shares"] * pay - s["cost"] - s["fee"], 2)
+            if t is not None and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9:
+                flips += 1
+            fh.write(json.dumps({**s, "chain_payout": pay, "chain_pnl": pnl,
+                                 "flip": t is not None
+                                 and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9}) + "\n")
+            graded += 1
+    import guards
+    led = []
+    try:
+        for ln in open(LEDGER):
+            try:
+                led.append(json.loads(ln))
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    # observational kill-switch: median premium across ALL attempts with a
+    # visible ask (fills, premium-skips, craters alike)
+    prem = []
+    try:
+        for ln in open(ATT_PULL):
+            try:
+                a = json.loads(ln)
+                if a.get("premium") is not None:
+                    prem.append(a["premium"])
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    c = stt.get("counters", {})
+    cuts = guards.cuts(led)
+    print(f"[grade_lean] +{graded} settles ({flips} flips) · "
+          f"lifetime cross {c.get('crossings')} att {c.get('attempts')} "
+          f"fill {c.get('fills')} prem-skip {c.get('premium_skips')}")
+    print("[grade_lean] " + guards.line("PAPER LEG", cuts, pass_ev=2.0))
+    if prem:
+        prem.sort()
+        print(f"[grade_lean] OBSERVATIONAL: median ask premium "
+              f"{st.median(prem)*100:+.1f}c over {len(prem)} attempts "
+              f"(kill-switch: >= +8c across 3 days)")
+    print("[grade_lean] verdict binds to the Study C Stage-2 (#26) pre-registration")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())

research/guards.py

@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Concentration guards, shared by every harness grader (#26/#27).
+
+Two studies passed their headline bars this week on results that one
+session or five episodes were carrying (Study C ex-best-day +$1.47 vs a
++$2 bar; Study D ex-best-day −$5.86 on a +$4.49 headline). These cuts
+turn that lesson into machinery: every grader reports them nightly, and
+a PASS whose ex-best-day EV is <= 0 is recorded CONCENTRATED and does
+not graduate.
+
+rows: dicts with chain_pnl, cost, ts, and (optionally) event.
+"""
+import collections
+import datetime as dt
+
+
+def cuts(rows, pnl_key="chain_pnl"):
+    """-> dict of the guard readings (empty dict when there is nothing)."""
+    rows = [r for r in rows if r.get(pnl_key) is not None]
+    n = len(rows)
+    if not n:
+        return {}
+    tot = sum(r[pnl_key] for r in rows)
+    staked = sum(r.get("cost") or 0 for r in rows)
+    out = {"n": n, "pnl": round(tot, 2), "ev": round(tot / n, 2),
+           "pct_staked": round(100 * tot / staked, 1) if staked else None,
+           "wins": sum(1 for r in rows if r.get("chain_payout") == 1.0)}
+    out["hit"] = round(out["wins"] / n, 3)
+    # episode concentration
+    srt = sorted(rows, key=lambda r: -abs(r[pnl_key]))
+    for k in (1, 5):
+        if n > k:
+            ex = sum(r[pnl_key] for r in srt[k:])
+            out[f"ex_top{k}_ev"] = round(ex / (n - k), 2)
+    out["top5_share"] = (round(100 * sum(r[pnl_key] for r in srt[:5]) / tot, 0)
+                         if tot else None)
+    # TIME concentration — the guard both studies needed
+    byday = collections.defaultdict(lambda: [0, 0.0])
+    for r in rows:
+        d = dt.datetime.utcfromtimestamp(r["ts"]).strftime("%m-%d")
+        byday[d][0] += 1
+        byday[d][1] += r[pnl_key]
+    out["days"] = len(byday)
+    out["by_day"] = {d: [v[0], round(v[1], 0)] for d, v in sorted(byday.items())}
+    if len(byday) > 1:
+        best = max(byday.values(), key=lambda v: v[1])
+        exn = n - best[0]
+        if exn > 0:
+            out["ex_best_day_ev"] = round((tot - best[1]) / exn, 2)
+            out["ex_best_day_n"] = exn
+    # EVENT concentration (the gate Study C's fade arm failed at 32%)
+    ev = collections.defaultdict(float)
+    for r in rows:
+        if r.get("event"):
+            ev[r["event"]] += r[pnl_key]
+    if ev and tot:
+        out["events"] = len(ev)
+        out["top_event_share"] = round(
+            100 * max(ev.values(), key=abs) / tot, 0)
+    return out
+
+
+def line(tag, c, pass_ev=None):
+    """One printable verdict line + the guard verdict."""
+    if not c:
+        return f"{tag}: no graded rows"
+    s = (f"{tag}: n={c['n']} {c['wins']}W · EV/fill {c['ev']:+.2f} · "
+         f"hit {c['hit']:.3f} · {c['pct_staked']:+.0f}% staked · "
+         f"{c['days']}d")
+    if "ex_best_day_ev" in c:
+        s += f" · EX-BEST-DAY {c['ex_best_day_ev']:+.2f}"
+    if "ex_top5_ev" in c:
+        s += f" · ex-top5 {c['ex_top5_ev']:+.2f}"
+    if "top_event_share" in c:
+        s += f" · top-event {c['top_event_share']:+.0f}%"
+    if pass_ev is not None:
+        bars = [c["ev"] >= pass_ev,
+                c.get("ex_best_day_ev", -1) > 0,
+                c.get("ex_top5_ev", -1) > 0,
+                abs(c.get("top_event_share") or 0) < 30]
+        s += ("  -> " + ("ALL GUARDS CLEAR" if all(bars) else
+                         "CONCENTRATED (headline only)" if bars[0] else
+                         "below bar"))
+    return s

research/lean_crossing_diag.py

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""#26 follow-up — DO THE TAPE AND THE HARNESS NAME THE SAME EVENT?
+
+Study C scored +$2.17/lean on tape and −$2.26/fill at a real book, with
+the entry price ruled out (median ask premium +1.0c, 72% fill rate). The
+remaining suspect is the SIGNAL DEFINITION itself: the harness builds
+each (wallet, token) inventory from the live stream and starts EMPTY at
+boot, while maker_lean.day_leans() sees the wallet's whole day. If those
+two disagree about WHEN net inventory crosses $150, they are measuring
+different events under one name — and #22's tape number was never
+reachable by construction rather than by execution.
+
+Method: take the harness's own attempts (its declared crossings, after
+the band/event-cap/print filters), recompute tape crossings over the SAME
+wallets and window with the frozen method, and ask three questions:
+  1. agreement — what fraction of harness attempts have a tape crossing
+     for the same (wallet, asset, day)?
+  2. tape-only  — crossings the tape names that the harness never saw
+  3. size drift — for matched pairs, how far apart are the lean_usd the
+     two computed? (the direct read on whole-day vs from-boot inventory)
+Read-only; no verdict authority — it explains a KILL that already fired.
+"""
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+import time
+import collections
+
+HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
+sys.path.insert(0, HERE)
+import tape                                    # noqa: E402
+import maker_lean as ml                        # noqa: E402
+
+ATT = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_attempts.pull.jsonl")
+
+
+def main():
+    att = []
+    for ln in open(ATT):
+        try:
+            att.append(json.loads(ln))
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+    if not att:
+        raise SystemExit("no attempts pulled")
+    lo_ts = min(a["ts"] for a in att)
+    hi_ts = max(a["ts"] for a in att)
+    print(f"harness attempts: {len(att)} · window "
+          f"{time.strftime('%m-%d %H:%M', time.gmtime(lo_ts))} -> "
+          f"{time.strftime('%m-%d %H:%M', time.gmtime(hi_ts))}Z", flush=True)
+
+    db = tape.connect()
+    # the harness screens off params/maker_set.json (published nightly);
+    # use the SAME set so any gap is about crossing detection, not the set
+    sharps = set(json.load(open(os.path.join(
+        HERE, "params", "maker_set.json")))["wallets"])
+    sharps = {w.lower() for w in sharps}
+    print(f"screened set: {len(sharps)} wallets (same file the box fetches)",
+          flush=True)
+
+    # tape crossings over the harness's own window, frozen method
+    leans = ml.day_leans(db, int(lo_ts), int(hi_ts) + 1, sharps)
+    db.close()
+    band = [t for t in leans
+            if ml.LEAN_USD <= t["lean_usd"] < 500.0]
+    print(f"tape crossings in window: {len(leans)} · in the $150-500 "
+          f"follow band: {len(band)}", flush=True)
+
+    def key(w, a, ts):
+        return ((w or "").lower(), str(a), int(ts // 86400))
+
+    # the harness's crossing is on the SOURCE token it watched (src_asset);
+    # day_leans keys on the same wallet+asset it saw the inventory build in
+    h_keys = {key(a.get("wallet"), a.get("src_asset") or a.get("asset"),
+                  a["ts"]): a for a in att}
+    t_keys = {key(t["w"], t["a"], t["ts"]): t for t in band}
+    both = set(h_keys) & set(t_keys)
+    h_only = set(h_keys) - set(t_keys)
+    t_only = set(t_keys) - set(h_keys)
+
+    print("\n== AGREEMENT ==")
+    print(f"  harness attempts matched by a tape crossing: "
+          f"{len(both)}/{len(h_keys)} = {100*len(both)/max(1,len(h_keys)):.0f}%")
+    print(f"  harness-only (tape never named it): {len(h_only)}")
+    print(f"  tape-only  (harness never saw it):  {len(t_only)}"
+          f"  [of {len(t_keys)} tape crossings = "
+          f"{100*len(t_only)/max(1,len(t_keys)):.0f}% missed]")
+
+    if both:
+        drift = []
+        for k in both:
+            drift.append((h_keys[k]["lean_usd"], t_keys[k]["lean_usd"]))
+        rel = sorted(abs(h - t) / max(t, 1) for h, t in drift)
+        agree = sum(1 for h, t in drift if abs(h - t) / max(t, 1) < 0.10)
+        print("\n== SIZE DRIFT on matched pairs ==")
+        print(f"  within 10% of each other: {agree}/{len(drift)} = "
+              f"{100*agree/len(drift):.0f}%")
+        print(f"  median |gap|: {100*rel[len(rel)//2]:.0f}% · "
+              f"p90 {100*rel[int(.9*len(rel))]:.0f}%")
+        for h, t in drift[:5]:
+            print(f"    harness ${h:>7.0f} vs tape ${t:>7.0f}")
+
+    if t_only:
+        by = collections.Counter(k[0][:10] for k in t_only)
+        print(f"\n  tape-only by wallet (top): {dict(by.most_common(4))}")
+    if h_only:
+        by = collections.Counter(k[0][:10] for k in h_only)
+        print(f"  harness-only by wallet (top): {dict(by.most_common(4))}")
+
+    print("\nREAD: high agreement => the definitions match and the KILL is "
+          "about the market, not the method. Low agreement or large size "
+          "drift => the two systems name different events and #22's tape "
+          "number was unreachable by construction.")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

research/leanbot.Dockerfile

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+# wwf-leanbot — one dep, no git, no clone (same discipline as the others).
+FROM python:3.12-slim
+RUN pip install --no-cache-dir websocket-client
+COPY research/leanbot.py /leanbot.py
+CMD ["python3", "-u", "/leanbot.py"]

research/leanbot.py

@@ -0,0 +1,631 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""leanbot — Study C Stage-2 (#26): maker inventory-leans at REAL execution.
+
+PAPER ONLY. No keys, no orders, no bot imports — self-contained (baked
+into the wwf-leanbot image). Study C (#22) PASSED its tape-scored window
+(+$2.17/lean, hit .576, n=20,461, 6 days) but every entry was booked at
+the lean-side LAST PRINT — an entry no real order can have. Study B died
+of exactly that assumption (tape-positive, −$8.51/fill at a real book).
+This box answers the only question that matters: when a screened
+maker-sharp's inventory crosses the conviction line, is the lean side
+still buyable near that print?
+
+Two legs per lean, both recorded:
+  observational  ask premium over the lean-side last print at trigger time
+                 (median premium >= 8c over 3 days = the tape's entry was a
+                 mirage — pre-registered kill-switch, no paper sample needed)
+  paper          $100 FAK walk at the real ask, gated by the pre-declared
+                 premium cap (+3c over the print; tighter than lagbot's 4c
+                 because a lean carries no urgency — nothing is crashing)
+
+THE VERDICT BINDS TO #26. Entries graded nightly against chain truth
+(grade_lean.py). Any semantics-altering fix bumps SEM_VER and restarts
+the shakedown clock.
+
+FROZEN spec (from #22 + pre-declared; do not tune here):
+  set        maker-sharps screened on strictly-prior tape, published
+             nightly by maker_set.py (the box never screens itself)
+  inventory  rolling net/gross USD per (wallet, token) from the
+             orders_matched stream — inventory absorbed while quoting
+  trigger    first crossing per (wallet, token, day) of
+             |net|*px >= $150 AND |net|/gross >= 0.6, lean px in [0.05,0.95]
+  band       follow arm only: lean size $150-500 (the #22 verdict arm)
+  entry      $100 FAK walk at asks <= min(print + 0.03, 0.95)
+             fee 3%*sh*min(p,1-p); MAX_PER_EVENT=2 concurrent
+Live-only plumbing (never signal): 30-min warmup, worker pool + bounded
+queue (throttle counted), map trims, registry-style settle passes.
+"""
+import json
+import os
+import queue
+import ssl
+import threading
+import time
+import urllib.request
+
+import websocket
+
+WS_URL = "wss://ws-live-data.polymarket.com"
+CLOB = "https://clob.polymarket.com"
+SET_URL = ("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder/"
+           "main/research/params/maker_set.json")
+STATE = os.environ.get("LEAN_STATE", "/data/lean_state.json")
+ATTEMPTS = os.environ.get("LEAN_ATTEMPTS", "/data/lean_attempts.jsonl")
+SETTLES = os.environ.get("LEAN_SETTLES", "/data/lean_settles.jsonl")
+SEM_VER = "n1"                    # bump on ANY semantics-altering change
+
+# ── FROZEN — #22 params + pre-declared execution rule ──────────────────────
+LEAN_USD_MIN = 150.0              # == maker_lean.LEAN_USD
+LEAN_USD_MAX = 500.0              # the #22 follow arm's upper edge
+NET_GROSS = 0.6
+BAND = (0.05, 0.95)
+PREMIUM_CAP = 0.03
+STAKE = 100.0
+FEE_RATE = 0.03
+MAX_PER_EVENT = 2
+# ── LIVE-ONLY plumbing ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+WARMUP_S = 1800
+SET_REFRESH_S = 3600
+BOOK_WORKERS = 4
+BOOK_QUEUE = 16
+CLOB_PASS_CAP = 25
+SETTLED_TRIM = 10000
+SKIPS_TRIM = 500
+INV_TRIM = 20000                  # bounded inventory map
+MAP_IDLE_TRIM_S = 86400
+TOP_LEVELS = 5
+SSL_CTX = ssl._create_unverified_context()
+
+
+def log(m):
+    print(f"{time.strftime('%H:%M:%S')}  {m}", flush=True)
+
+
+def get_json(url, timeout=8):
+    req = urllib.request.Request(url, headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"})
+    with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=timeout, context=SSL_CTX) as r:
+        return json.loads(r.read().decode())
+
+
+def walk_asks(asks, cap, stake_usd=STAKE):
+    """FAK against a CLOB ask list within cap; partial fills kept; top raw
+    levels recorded for offline replays. asks arrive UNSORTED."""
+    lv = sorted(((float(a["price"]), float(a["size"])) for a in asks or []))
+    top = [[p, s] for p, s in lv[:TOP_LEVELS]]
+    if not lv:
+        return {"filled": False, "best_ask": None, "top": top}
+    best = lv[0][0]
+    spent = shares = 0.0
+    levels = 0
+    for pxx, sz in lv:
+        if pxx > cap or spent >= stake_usd - 1e-9:
+            break
+        take = min(sz, (stake_usd - spent) / pxx)
+        if take <= 0:
+            break
+        shares += take
+        spent += take * pxx
+        levels += 1
+    if not shares:
+        return {"filled": False, "best_ask": best, "top": top}
+    return {"filled": True, "vwap": spent / shares, "shares": shares,
+            "usd": spent, "levels": levels, "best_ask": best, "top": top,
+            "partial": spent < stake_usd - 1e-9}
+
+
+def fresh_state():
+    return {
+        "sem_ver": SEM_VER, "boot_ts": int(time.time()),
+        "open": {}, "settled": [], "skips": [],
+        "pnl_realized": 0.0,
+        "counters": {"crossings": 0, "attempts": 0, "fills": 0,
+                     "craters": 0, "premium_skips": 0, "throttle_skip": 0,
+                     "book_fail": 0, "settled_total": 0, "settle_clob": 0,
+                     "skip": {"warmup": 0, "not_in_set": 0, "band_usd": 0,
+                              "band_px": 0, "no_print": 0, "event_cap": 0,
+                              "no_complement": 0, "already_fired": 0}}}
+
+
+class LeanBot:
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.lock = threading.Lock()
+        self.boot = time.time()
+        self.state = fresh_state()
+        if os.path.exists(STATE):
+            try:
+                old = json.load(open(STATE))
+                if old.get("sem_ver") == SEM_VER:
+                    self.state = old
+                    self.state["boot_ts"] = int(time.time())
+                    log(f"state resumed: {len(old.get('open', {}))} open · "
+                        f"{old['counters']['settled_total']} settled")
+                else:
+                    log(f"SEM_VER changed {old.get('sem_ver')}->{SEM_VER} — "
+                        f"fresh state (shakedown clock restarts)")
+            except Exception as e:
+                log(f"state load failed ({e}) — fresh")
+        self.sharps = set()
+        self.set_meta = {}
+        self.set_ts = 0
+        self.inv = {}          # (wallet, asset) -> [net_usd, gross_usd, ts]
+        self.fired = set()     # (wallet, asset, day) already triggered
+        self.last_px = {}      # asset -> (ts, price)
+        self.cond_assets = {}  # cond -> {asset, ...}
+        self.tok_meta = {}     # asset -> (cond, event, title, outcome)
+        self.book_q = queue.Queue(BOOK_QUEUE)
+
+    # ── the screened set (never computed here — published by maker_set.py) ──
+    def refresh_set(self):
+        try:
+            d = get_json(SET_URL, timeout=15)
+            ws = {w.lower() for w in d.get("wallets") or []}
+            if ws:
+                with self.lock:
+                    self.sharps = ws
+                    self.set_meta = {"n": len(ws), "as_of": d.get("as_of"),
+                                     "computed_at": d.get("computed_at")}
+                    self.set_ts = time.time()
+                log(f"maker set: {len(ws)} wallets (as-of "
+                    f"{time.strftime('%F', time.gmtime(d.get('as_of') or 0))})")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ maker set fetch failed: {e}")
+
+    # ── stream ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    def on_trade(self, p):
+        """activity/trades — price marks + token metadata (the orders_matched
+        payload often carries empty conditionId/eventSlug; trades do not)."""
+        a = p.get("asset")
+        if not a:
+            return
+        try:
+            px = float(p.get("price") or 0)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return
+        now = time.time()
+        with self.lock:
+            if 0 < px < 1:
+                self.last_px[a] = (now, px)
+            cond = p.get("conditionId") or ""
+            if cond:
+                self.cond_assets.setdefault(cond, set()).add(a)
+                self.tok_meta[a] = (cond, p.get("eventSlug") or "",
+                                    (p.get("title") or "")[:80],
+                                    p.get("outcome") or "")
+
+    def on_match(self, p):
+        """activity/orders_matched — the MAKER side of every match. Inventory
+        absorbed while quoting, which is the #22 signal substrate."""
+        w = (p.get("proxyWallet") or "").lower()
+        a = p.get("asset")
+        if not w or not a:
+            return
+        try:
+            px = float(p.get("price") or 0)
+            sz = float(p.get("size") or 0)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return
+        if px <= 0 or sz <= 0:
+            return
+        now = time.time()
+        usd = px * sz
+        with self.lock:
+            cond = p.get("conditionId") or ""
+            if cond:
+                self.cond_assets.setdefault(cond, set()).add(a)
+                self.tok_meta.setdefault(a, (cond, p.get("eventSlug") or "",
+                                             (p.get("title") or "")[:80],
+                                             p.get("outcome") or ""))
+            if w not in self.sharps:
+                self.state["counters"]["skip"]["not_in_set"] += 1
+                return
+            key = (w, a)
+            st = self.inv.get(key) or [0.0, 0.0, now]
+            st[0] += usd if p.get("side") == "BUY" else -usd
+            st[1] += usd
+            st[2] = now
+            self.inv[key] = st
+            if len(self.inv) > INV_TRIM:
+                for k in sorted(self.inv, key=lambda k: self.inv[k][2])[:2000]:
+                    del self.inv[k]
+            if time.time() - self.boot < WARMUP_S:
+                self.state["counters"]["skip"]["warmup"] += 1
+                return
+            self._maybe_fire(w, a, st, px, now)
+
+    def _maybe_fire(self, w, a, st, px, now):   # under lock
+        net, gross = st[0], st[1]
+        if gross < 1e-9:
+            return
+        lean_usd = abs(net)
+        if lean_usd < LEAN_USD_MIN or abs(net) / gross < NET_GROSS:
+            return
+        day = int(now // 86400)
+        if (w, a, day) in self.fired:
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["already_fired"] += 1
+            return
+        self.state["counters"]["crossings"] += 1
+        self.fired.add((w, a, day))
+        if lean_usd >= LEAN_USD_MAX:            # follow arm is $150-500
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["band_usd"] += 1
+            return
+        # lean side: net>0 = they are accumulating THIS token; net<0 = they
+        # are net short it, so the lean is the complement token
+        if net > 0:
+            target, lean_px = a, px
+        else:
+            cond = (self.tok_meta.get(a) or ("",))[0]
+            sibs = [x for x in self.cond_assets.get(cond, set()) if x != a]
+            if len(sibs) != 1:
+                self.state["counters"]["skip"]["no_complement"] += 1
+                return
+            target = sibs[0]
+            lean_px = 1 - px
+        lp = self.last_px.get(target)
+        if not lp or now - lp[0] > 3600:
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["no_print"] += 1
+            return
+        print_px = lp[1]
+        if not (BAND[0] <= print_px <= BAND[1]):
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["band_px"] += 1
+            return
+        cond, event, title, outcome = self.tok_meta.get(
+            target, ("", "", "", ""))
+        if event and sum(1 for l in self.state["open"].values()
+                         if l.get("event") == event) >= MAX_PER_EVENT:
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["event_cap"] += 1
+            return
+        job = {"wallet": w, "src_asset": a, "asset": target, "cond": cond,
+               "event": event, "title": title, "outcome": outcome,
+               "lean_usd": round(lean_usd, 2), "net": round(net, 2),
+               "gross": round(gross, 2), "side": 1 if net > 0 else -1,
+               "print": round(print_px, 4), "lean_px": round(lean_px, 4),
+               "ts": round(now, 3)}
+        try:
+            self.book_q.put_nowait(job)
+            self.state["counters"]["attempts"] += 1
+        except queue.Full:
+            self.state["counters"]["throttle_skip"] += 1
+            self._skip(job, "throttle", None)
+            self.log_attempt({**job, "filled": False, "why": "throttle"})
+
+    # ── execution (workers; network OUT of the lock) ───────────────────────
+    def book_worker(self):
+        while True:
+            job = self.book_q.get()
+            try:
+                self.attempt(job)
+            except Exception as e:
+                log(f"⚠ attempt error: {e}")
+                with self.lock:
+                    self.state["counters"]["book_fail"] += 1
+
+    def attempt(self, job):
+        t0 = time.time()
+        try:
+            bk = get_json(f"{CLOB}/book?token_id={job['asset']}")
+        except Exception:
+            with self.lock:
+                self.state["counters"]["book_fail"] += 1
+            return
+        lat_ms = int((time.time() - t0) * 1000)
+        cap = min(job["print"] + PREMIUM_CAP, BAND[1])
+        r = walk_asks(bk.get("asks"), cap)
+        premium = (r["best_ask"] - job["print"]) if r["best_ask"] else None
+        rec = {**job, "latency_ms": lat_ms, "best_ask": r["best_ask"],
+               "premium": round(premium, 4) if premium is not None else None,
+               "top": r["top"], "cap": round(cap, 4), "filled": r["filled"]}
+        with self.lock:
+            c = self.state["counters"]
+            if not r["filled"]:
+                why = "crater" if r["best_ask"] is None else "premium"
+                c["craters" if why == "crater" else "premium_skips"] += 1
+                rec["why"] = why
+                self._skip(job, why, r["best_ask"])
+                log(f"{why.upper()} {job['title'][:34]} print "
+                    f"{job['print']:.2f} ask "
+                    f"{r['best_ask'] if r['best_ask'] is not None else '—'} "
+                    f"(lean ${job['lean_usd']:.0f}, {lat_ms}ms)")
+                self.persist()
+            else:
+                fee = FEE_RATE * r["shares"] * min(r["vwap"], 1 - r["vwap"])
+                lot = {**job, "price": round(r["vwap"], 5),
+                       "best_ask": r["best_ask"], "premium": rec["premium"],
+                       "shares": round(r["shares"], 4),
+                       "cost": round(r["usd"], 2), "fee": round(fee, 4),
+                       "levels": r["levels"], "partial": r["partial"],
+                       "latency_ms": lat_ms}
+                self.state["open"][f"{job['asset']}:{job['ts']}"] = lot
+                c["fills"] += 1
+                rec.update({"price": lot["price"], "shares": lot["shares"],
+                            "usd": lot["cost"], "fee": lot["fee"],
+                            "partial": lot["partial"]})
+                log(f"FILL {job['title'][:34]} @ {lot['price']:.3f} "
+                    f"(print {job['print']:.2f} prem "
+                    f"{rec['premium'] if rec['premium'] is not None else 0:+.3f}"
+                    f", lean ${job['lean_usd']:.0f}, ${lot['cost']:.2f}, "
+                    f"{lat_ms}ms)")
+                self.persist()
+        self.log_attempt(rec)
+
+    def log_attempt(self, rec):
+        try:
+            with open(ATTEMPTS, "a") as fh:
+                fh.write(json.dumps(rec) + "\n")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ attempts log write failed: {e}")
+
+    def _skip(self, job, why, ba):     # under lock
+        self.state["skips"].append(
+            {"ts": int(job["ts"]), "asset": job["asset"], "why": why,
+             "print": job["print"], "ba": ba, "title": job["title"],
+             "lean_usd": job["lean_usd"]})
+        del self.state["skips"][:-SKIPS_TRIM]
+
+    # ── settles: CLOB backstop -> nightly chain truth ──────────────────────
+    def settle_clob_pass(self):
+        with self.lock:
+            now = time.time()
+            due = list(self.state["open"].keys())
+            due.sort(key=lambda lid: self.state["open"][lid].get("clob_ck", 0))
+            due = due[:CLOB_PASS_CAP]
+            snap = {}
+            for lid in due:
+                lot = self.state["open"][lid]
+                lot["clob_ck"] = now
+                snap[lid] = (lot.get("cond"), lot["asset"])
+        verdicts = {}
+        for lid, (cond, asset) in snap.items():
+            if not cond:
+                continue
+            try:
+                m = get_json(f"{CLOB}/markets/{cond}")
+            except Exception:
+                continue
+            if not m.get("closed"):
+                continue
+            for t in m.get("tokens") or []:
+                if str(t.get("token_id")) == str(asset):
+                    verdicts[lid] = 1.0 if t.get("winner") else 0.0
+        if not verdicts:
+            return
+        with self.lock:
+            n = 0
+            for lid, pay in verdicts.items():
+                lot = self.state["open"].get(lid)
+                if lot:
+                    self._settle(lid, lot, pay)
+                    n += 1
+            if n:
+                self.persist()
+
+    def _settle(self, lid, lot, pay):  # under lock
+        pnl = round(lot["shares"] * pay - lot["cost"] - lot["fee"], 2)
+        self.state["pnl_realized"] = round(self.state["pnl_realized"] + pnl, 2)
+        c = self.state["counters"]
+        c["settled_total"] += 1
+        c["settle_clob"] += 1
+        rec = {**lot, "payout": pay, "provisional": True,
+               "settled_ts": int(time.time()), "pnl": pnl}
+        self.state["settled"].append(rec)
+        del self.state["settled"][:-SETTLED_TRIM]
+        del self.state["open"][lid]
+        try:
+            with open(SETTLES, "a") as fh:
+                fh.write(json.dumps(rec) + "\n")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ settles log write failed: {e}")
+        word = "WON" if pay == 1.0 else "refund" if pay == 0.5 else "lost"
+        log(f"SETTLE {word} {lot['title'][:34]} {pnl:+.2f} · "
+            f"realized {self.state['pnl_realized']:+.2f}")
+
+    # ── plumbing ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    def persist(self):
+        tmp = STATE + ".tmp"
+        json.dump(self.state, open(tmp, "w"))
+        os.replace(tmp, STATE)
+
+    def trim_maps(self):               # under lock (minute loop)
+        now = time.time()
+        if len(self.last_px) > 400000:
+            self.last_px = {a: v for a, v in self.last_px.items()
+                            if now - v[0] < MAP_IDLE_TRIM_S}
+        day = int(now // 86400)
+        self.fired = {k for k in self.fired if k[2] >= day - 1}
+
+    def feed_dict(self):               # under lock
+        stt = self.state
+        return {
+            "mode": "paper", "study": "lean (Study C stage-2)",
+            "sem_ver": SEM_VER, "updated": int(time.time()),
+            "boot_ts": stt["boot_ts"],
+            "warmup_left_s": max(0, int(self.boot + WARMUP_S - time.time())),
+            "frozen": {"lean_usd": [LEAN_USD_MIN, LEAN_USD_MAX],
+                       "net_gross": NET_GROSS, "premium_cap": PREMIUM_CAP,
+                       "stake": STAKE, "band": BAND, "fee_rate": FEE_RATE,
+                       "max_per_event": MAX_PER_EVENT},
+            "set": self.set_meta, "set_age_s": int(time.time() - self.set_ts),
+            "tracked_inventories": len(self.inv),
+            "counters": stt["counters"], "pnl_realized": stt["pnl_realized"],
+            "open_n": len(stt["open"]),
+            "open": [{**l, "id": lid}
+                     for lid, l in list(stt["open"].items())[-200:]],
+            "settled": stt["settled"][-200:], "skips": stt["skips"][-100:],
+            "note": "verdict binds to #26; median ask-premium >= 8c over 3 "
+                    "days is the observational kill-switch (graded nightly "
+                    "from the attempts stream)"}
+
+
+SUB = json.dumps({"action": "subscribe", "subscriptions": [
+    {"topic": "activity", "type": "trades", "filters": ""},
+    {"topic": "activity", "type": "orders_matched", "filters": ""}]})
+
+
+def run_conn(tag, bot):
+    backoff = 2
+    while True:
+        state = {"fresh": time.time()}
+
+        def on_open(ws):
+            ws.send(SUB)
+            state["fresh"] = time.time()
+            log(f"ws[{tag}]: connected")
+
+            def ping():
+                while ws.keep_running:
+                    time.sleep(5)
+                    try:
+                        ws.send('{"action":"ping"}')
+                    except Exception:
+                        break
+                    if time.time() - state["fresh"] > 20:
+                        try:
+                            ws.close()
+                        except Exception:
+                            pass
+                        break
+            threading.Thread(target=ping, daemon=True).start()
+
+        def on_message(ws, raw):
+            state["fresh"] = time.time()
+            try:
+                m = json.loads(raw)
+            except Exception:
+                return
+            if m.get("topic") != "activity":
+                return
+            try:
+                if m.get("type") == "trades":
+                    bot.on_trade(m.get("payload") or {})
+                elif m.get("type") == "orders_matched":
+                    bot.on_match(m.get("payload") or {})
+            except Exception as e:
+                log(f"⚠ on_message error: {e}")
+
+        try:
+            app = websocket.WebSocketApp(WS_URL, on_open=on_open,
+                                         on_message=on_message)
+            app.run_forever(sslopt={"cert_reqs": ssl.CERT_NONE})
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"ws[{tag}]: {str(e)[:60]}")
+        time.sleep(backoff + (1 if tag == "b" else 0))
+        backoff = min(backoff * 2, 30)
+        if time.time() - state["fresh"] < 60:
+            backoff = 2
+
+
+def serve_feed(bot, port=8080):
+    from http.server import BaseHTTPRequestHandler, ThreadingHTTPServer
+
+    class H(BaseHTTPRequestHandler):
+        def log_message(self, *a):
+            pass
+
+        def do_GET(self):
+            if self.path.split("?")[0] != "/feed":
+                self.send_response(404)
+                self.end_headers()
+                return
+            with bot.lock:
+                body = json.dumps(bot.feed_dict()).encode()
+            self.send_response(200)
+            self.send_header("Content-Type", "application/json")
+            self.send_header("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
+            self.send_header("Cache-Control", "no-store")
+            self.send_header("Content-Length", str(len(body)))
+            self.end_headers()
+            self.wfile.write(body)
+
+    ThreadingHTTPServer(("0.0.0.0", port), H).serve_forever()
+
+
+def selftest():
+    """Boot gate — hard exit on failure."""
+    bot = LeanBot.__new__(LeanBot)
+    bot.state = fresh_state()
+    bot.lock = threading.Lock()
+    bot.boot = time.time() - WARMUP_S - 1
+    bot.sharps = {"0xsharp"}
+    bot.set_meta, bot.set_ts = {}, time.time()
+    bot.inv, bot.fired = {}, set()
+    bot.last_px, bot.cond_assets, bot.tok_meta = {}, {}, {}
+    bot.book_q = queue.Queue(4)
+    jobs = []
+    bot.book_q.put_nowait = lambda j: jobs.append(j)   # capture, no network
+
+    def mk(w, a, side, px, sz, cond="c1"):
+        return {"proxyWallet": w, "asset": a, "side": side, "price": px,
+                "size": sz, "conditionId": cond, "eventSlug": "ev1",
+                "title": "T", "outcome": "X"}
+    bot.on_trade({"asset": "tokA", "price": 0.30, "conditionId": "c1",
+                  "eventSlug": "ev1", "title": "T", "outcome": "X"})
+    bot.on_trade({"asset": "tokB", "price": 0.70, "conditionId": "c1",
+                  "eventSlug": "ev1", "title": "T", "outcome": "Y"})
+    # not in set -> ignored
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xrando", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 2000))
+    assert not jobs, "non-set wallet fired"
+    # in set, sub-threshold ($60) -> no fire
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 200))
+    assert not jobs, "sub-threshold fired"
+    # crosses $150 one-sided -> fires on tokA
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 400))
+    assert len(jobs) == 1, f"expected 1 job, got {len(jobs)}"
+    assert jobs[0]["asset"] == "tokA" and jobs[0]["side"] == 1
+    assert jobs[0]["print"] == 0.30, jobs[0]["print"]
+    # same (wallet, token, day) cannot fire twice
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 400))
+    assert len(jobs) == 1, "re-fired same day"
+    # net-short lean routes to the complement token
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokB", "SELL", 0.70, 400))
+    assert len(jobs) == 2 and jobs[1]["asset"] == "tokA", jobs[1]
+    assert jobs[1]["side"] == -1
+    # over the $500 band edge -> counted, no job
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokZ", "BUY", 0.50, 4000))
+    assert len(jobs) == 2, "over-band fired"
+    assert bot.state["counters"]["skip"]["band_usd"] == 1
+    # walk_asks: cap respected, partials kept
+    r = walk_asks([{"price": 0.33, "size": 100}, {"price": 0.40, "size": 900}],
+                  0.33)
+    assert r["filled"] and abs(r["usd"] - 33.0) < 1e-6 and r["partial"], r
+    r2 = walk_asks([{"price": 0.99, "size": 10}], 0.33)
+    assert not r2["filled"] and r2["best_ask"] == 0.99, r2
+    assert WARMUP_S >= 60, "warmup must exceed a burst window"
+    log("selftest OK")
+
+
+def main():
+    selftest()
+    bot = LeanBot()
+    bot.refresh_set()
+    if not bot.sharps:
+        log("⚠ no maker set yet — idling until the nightly publishes one")
+    threading.Thread(target=serve_feed, args=(bot,), daemon=True).start()
+    for i in range(BOOK_WORKERS):
+        threading.Thread(target=bot.book_worker, daemon=True).start()
+    for tag in ("a", "b"):
+        threading.Thread(target=run_conn, args=(tag, bot), daemon=True).start()
+    tick = 0
+    while True:
+        time.sleep(60)
+        tick += 1
+        try:
+            if time.time() - bot.set_ts > SET_REFRESH_S:
+                bot.refresh_set()
+            if tick % 2 == 0:
+                bot.settle_clob_pass()
+            with bot.lock:
+                bot.trim_maps()
+                if tick % 5 == 0:
+                    bot.persist()
+                c = bot.state["counters"]
+                log(f"paper pnl {bot.state['pnl_realized']:+.2f} · open "
+                    f"{len(bot.state['open'])} · cross {c['crossings']} "
+                    f"att {c['attempts']} fill {c['fills']} "
+                    f"prem-skip {c['premium_skips']} crat {c['craters']} · "
+                    f"inv {len(bot.inv)} · set {len(bot.sharps)} · "
+                    f"settled {c['settled_total']}")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ loop error: {e}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

research/maker_set.py

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Publish the walk-forward screened maker-sharp set for wwf-leanbot (#26).
+
+The bot must NEVER screen on its own live data — that is how a study
+starts selecting the wallets that happened to win during its own window.
+So the set is computed here, on tape strictly BEFORE today, exactly as
+maker_lean.py's screen_asof does (the frozen #22 method), and published
+to research/params/maker_set.json for the box to fetch.
+
+Wired into nightly.sh before the graders. Same contract as
+informed_set.py (surgebot's input): committed file = frozen input.
+"""
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+import time
+
+HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
+sys.path.insert(0, HERE)
+import tape                                    # noqa: E402
+import maker_lean as ml                        # noqa: E402
+
+OUT = os.path.join(HERE, "params", "maker_set.json")
+
+
+def main():
+    db = tape.connect()
+    # midnight UTC today — the set may only see strictly-prior tape
+    t_cut = int(time.time() // 86400) * 86400
+    sharps = ml.screen_asof(db, t_cut)
+    db.close()
+    out = {
+        "computed_at": int(time.time()),
+        "as_of": t_cut,
+        "method": "maker_lean.screen_asof (z>=2.5, >=6 resolved maker bets, "
+                  "pnl>0) on orders_matched strictly before as_of",
+        "frozen_params": {"lean_usd": [ml.LEAN_USD, 500.0],
+                          "net_gross": ml.NET_GROSS, "band": list(ml.BAND)},
+        "n": len(sharps),
+        "wallets": sorted(sharps),
+    }
+    os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(OUT), exist_ok=True)
+    tmp = OUT + ".tmp"
+    json.dump(out, open(tmp, "w"), indent=1)
+    os.replace(tmp, OUT)
+    print(f"[maker_set] {len(sharps)} wallets as-of "
+          f"{time.strftime('%F', time.gmtime(t_cut))} -> params/maker_set.json",
+          flush=True)
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())

research/nightly.sh

@@ -27,11 +27,23 @@ if ! mkdir "$LOCK" 2>/dev/null; then
   # later night then skips SILENTLY. Trust the recorded PID: if it is gone,
   # the lock is debris, so take it over.
   OWNER=$(cat "$LOCK/pid" 2>/dev/null)
-  if [ -n "$OWNER" ] && kill -0 "$OWNER" 2>/dev/null; then
-    echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) already running (pid $OWNER) — skip" >> forward.log
-    exit 0
+  if [ -n "$OWNER" ]; then
+    if kill -0 "$OWNER" 2>/dev/null; then
+      echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) already running (pid $OWNER) — skip" >> forward.log
+      exit 0
+    fi
+    echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) STALE lock (pid $OWNER gone) — taking over" >> forward.log
+  else
+    # No pid file = a lock from before this guard existed (or a crash between
+    # mkdir and the write). Do NOT assume stale — that ran two nightlies at
+    # once on 2026-07-27. Age it out instead: 6h is longer than any real run.
+    AGE=$(( $(date +%s) - $(stat -f %m "$LOCK" 2>/dev/null || echo 0) ))
+    if [ "$AGE" -lt 21600 ]; then
+      echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) lock held (no pid, age ${AGE}s < 6h) — skip" >> forward.log
+      exit 0
+    fi
+    echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) STALE lock (no pid, age ${AGE}s) — taking over" >> forward.log
   fi
-  echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) STALE lock (pid ${OWNER:-none} gone) — taking over" >> forward.log
 fi
 echo $$ > "$LOCK/pid"
 trap 'rmdir "$LOCK"' EXIT
@@ -61,14 +73,17 @@ done
 
 "$PY" forward.py >> forward.log 2>&1
 "$PY" informed_set.py >> forward.log 2>&1     # surge harness reads this daily
+"$PY" maker_set.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true       # leanbot input (#26)
 "$PY" grade_surge.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true   # A2 measurement -> chain truth
 "$PY" surge_book_replay.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true  # virtual $100/5% book
 "$PY" grade_oracle.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true  # oracle paper -> chain truth
 "$PY" grade_lag.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true      # lead-lag paper -> chain truth
+"$PY" grade_lean.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true     # maker-lean paper -> chain truth
 "$PY" meta_snap.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true     # market metadata (local gz)
 
 cd ..
 git add research/forward_ledger.jsonl research/params/informed_set.json \
+        research/lean_paper_ledger.jsonl research/params/maker_set.json \
         research/surge_paper_ledger.jsonl research/oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl research/lag_paper_ledger.jsonl \
         research/surge_meas_ledger.jsonl research/surge_book.json 2>/dev/null
 if ! git diff --cached --quiet; then

research/params/informed_set.json

@@ -1,157 +1,157 @@
 {
- "generated_at": 1785020316,
- "as_of_tape_ts": 1785009592,
+ "generated_at": 1786138469,
+ "as_of_tape_ts": 1785931199,
  "method": "study_flow.informed_set FROZEN (top_n=150, z>=2.5, n>=6)",
  "wallets": [
   "0xda770326bd091d26f816917aa83a6baff668683f",
   "0x893575c7d99542163c6b6e8a0fe5af0b6d217daa",
-  "0xa9f5e5c9c761a0c7d692ba479028f778a5dd937f",
   "0xc4fe817476491890086330a639ac417d51bf601f",
   "0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea",
-  "0xc7d02944a76b9f83b199e9090ecc92c82d241f8a",
-  "0xdbdd45150249e229eb4ca8aa48a30dca21faa5de",
+  "0xa9f5e5c9c761a0c7d692ba479028f778a5dd937f",
   "0xfe787d2da716d60e8acff57fb87eb13cd4d10319",
-  "0x945a49252f772a10c6ddd1d1e1e24ee20438a48c",
+  "0xdbdd45150249e229eb4ca8aa48a30dca21faa5de",
   "0xdb83e85ffd22faa4009273034770f96ffc5b1e50",
-  "0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14",
-  "0xe91171f655be1568e4c63f29663c0028649e3d4e",
+  "0xc7d02944a76b9f83b199e9090ecc92c82d241f8a",
+  "0x945a49252f772a10c6ddd1d1e1e24ee20438a48c",
   "0x0d2d845a6ff64e31e04a70afce8a573940767ff5",
-  "0xc29198ad764bd6adaf7bb971a3757a689ece5d74",
-  "0xf1f2b3c6c5bea42a6664fe3a8395addc1ab28c8d",
-  "0x076daa87c4fe1a85402a9b6b8e0a866224388d4c",
-  "0x1cdd071bb612de6d66d0c882b676c663697de595",
-  "0x904ed7c7820a434ea9b11e7333ed69190d850bec",
-  "0x592997c2d8119d82d71f21119957c6434d244684",
-  "0x200ffb575b936d297fcf39076ddf2b476ae07a96",
+  "0xe91171f655be1568e4c63f29663c0028649e3d4e",
+  "0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14",
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   "0x2e3c40fa47b27c676ddd573064162f57d51508ba",
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-  "0x65228958f3c7e09f09ce2dab06813d6051333a5a",
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-  "0xf1ee4842fa0c7283632185e42577027452d4519c",
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-  "0x94d22bf045f9a1d1cb37a40a4a8c86fd8917cfbd",
-  "0xff34c2cc46e7624310f3549ea355540d57a4694b",
-  "0x84d4f0a864c647b88635c0e299da30d7606377a9",
-  "0x37c1ff27d21b08d1cae9f38453b895eae2a78de1",
-  "0x98db8cca55c32b24cfb414b5b43d273f4e1fdd17",
   "0xa3b48b1e1e3c44c2c8181092206f65f29bce88df",
+  "0x6b23c73159b753c96d3c1ed94413f113300c04a3",
+  "0xf1ee4842fa0c7283632185e42577027452d4519c",
+  "0x4f29e103339919c4baaea2a60195cf1c8bb27a7e",
+  "0x9ab303a355bf22a29e485d98fb88d140abb43044",
+  "0x47c9014f76660cd2efe17c1f5ea342fd12cd2038",
+  "0xa3c2ec158f222f3f4f5f4f57b113d761a4d3df3d",
+  "0x0cf18b4294b05509c44a6a0172eff7e97b20d7fe",
+  "0x41a65744f604696f8811fd38c68bb1e92b62fcf2",
+  "0x22da1a1fc2b14f5c76b0e179048734c015ef2866",
+  "0xb6d2d81518cda8f9025697f942b2533ad4efd67b",
+  "0x65228958f3c7e09f09ce2dab06813d6051333a5a",
+  "0x98db8cca55c32b24cfb414b5b43d273f4e1fdd17",
+  "0x19e5e4bd692fea0b868aa1b57ab4bd5a86a0dd71",
+  "0x789c0d48c4ff22a306223f0713cf3a0d5e420d10",
+  "0x94d22bf045f9a1d1cb37a40a4a8c86fd8917cfbd",
+  "0x9d94f602535e518ee1cb6aade0ca9569f1b1017d",
+  "0x5fe0ff9fda392aa72aa945843f3ebcd8b83dcc67",
+  "0x2c46ffe86ee500875db3c679e52f6e64854cdac9",
+  "0xde9f7f4e77a1595623ceb58e469f776257ccd43c",
+  "0x3cadb93ce001cb0ac411683a32437414550c92f0",
+  "0xe28db285fa8acdf73eb9d184627a1924bc7d9c81",
+  "0x52d93dcf81444f793dda7fedc370f7a35101fb1a",
+  "0x32b484581fc5606de9c1e43af4636b6be9bc8b21",
+  "0xb91cdd2b03d05f67db8ed560fb56cca7f668ed66",
+  "0x902859b3b16e0a95311cd31b41c702a1e8b78608",
+  "0x5c18d1f705989046f5106d64a0cb34d5deb02f76",
+  "0x5268527977f700f9bf9b6d5cd843859e4e70135d",
+  "0x83d9a38fbf2265d1a092499a964412dd44e810d9",
+  "0xecae02fb51a11dd8ada7a7dc9f25a3212e3fc544",
+  "0x00093a689df7fb09a137f9db7102d9e967c85497",
+  "0xb7ab821f037a4c8deb9b23b8001a4be985d116d0",
+  "0x717990979ff84a32d47205a7eede94317aab7d79",
+  "0x664a25f165a0150ce687410470f3352f5783fc5f",
+  "0xc75b0390b025086df22363d6c22602506c3b3ea7",
+  "0x2b358a81a9aa4904fad6981ae9ad62e52fe10bfe",
+  "0x2f26606ccc45a934838a97d44a30c32012ae0d8f",
+  "0x7d0caf83488431bb760f204d52bdf5246e2fa3b7",
+  "0x237f21a15396d2e56c7ca5f74cfbc6af9dade76e",
+  "0x56cc7a163d7a56134a394b76abaa47c7bdcad589",
+  "0x147c2760baa011fdcd0d02ea0f610ffb0fd92540",
+  "0x133a9901fcdb918685b90c93f8fd574521df504a",
   "0x35e701f088b6ef25fff6b902769c1cd8b85f8331",
   "0xbb8ef6381e4a35b4124584cfce1c73137e2508c1",
-  "0x717990979ff84a32d47205a7eede94317aab7d79",
-  "0x2ad531734533078236780a5acda36d91037a62ff",
-  "0xbafd69a6c38f9887a6ec6923a2318ee1a6884898",
-  "0x80d8dddcfdc075eb70f6d2d774a27bfb255ab703",
-  "0x9e20c1016cfdf518c84aa398d64bf9b2277a5cf9",
-  "0x5b6e80132e843cb8570ee93e448f05f40ef3f544",
-  "0x5d346a9488fa7a91dc13f16bf48131783b2fd7b5",
-  "0xb7ab821f037a4c8deb9b23b8001a4be985d116d0",
-  "0x4f29e103339919c4baaea2a60195cf1c8bb27a7e",
-  "0x19e5e4bd692fea0b868aa1b57ab4bd5a86a0dd71",
-  "0x0db98a11b12ab30fc1e43ea9c9b63df50849a4a8",
-  "0xb91cdd2b03d05f67db8ed560fb56cca7f668ed66",
-  "0x2c475c09b18fa388f3c60cacef6e7221b00b47f5",
-  "0xc1fd8001916292efc9343e2d555bb67e9edb10cc",
-  "0x5c18d1f705989046f5106d64a0cb34d5deb02f76",
-  "0xbac4ab50a9059b89131cf7bad38bb12c031586db",
-  "0x2b358a81a9aa4904fad6981ae9ad62e52fe10bfe",
-  "0xe29c038d6eacea4c98d7c39cd2583e940b28a31d",
-  "0x5268527977f700f9bf9b6d5cd843859e4e70135d",
-  "0x147c2760baa011fdcd0d02ea0f610ffb0fd92540",
-  "0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318",
-  "0xfb8edbc409120f8dbab8df8e723037e0fe773dc3",
-  "0x39b286cde7bfa4bca0158a950c29df75485b157c",
-  "0xde9f7f4e77a1595623ceb58e469f776257ccd43c",
-  "0xd13c1e677498544774850a8d34b210887ec798a7",
-  "0xedf72350cc1d1fc9b02186f33a19a27108e24003",
-  "0x789c0d48c4ff22a306223f0713cf3a0d5e420d10",
-  "0xeea3f08e8a36081233e4c4b4142fd61a7b56a6a2",
-  "0x5fe0ff9fda392aa72aa945843f3ebcd8b83dcc67",
-  "0x4126330ba61224a3b265921fcdea1adc50d6e68b",
-  "0x162147bf9d4588675de814fce9ce36d3b2c0f040",
-  "0x1cae27a4deb610229d264199b655f2b1a4d5d01c",
-  "0x83182e6abe7101f2084eef8d570ebdfc66dc34a6",
-  "0x54e00a1ceb7f3b7c0bd240d1deeb0edb6b0eb02c",
-  "0x0df758f3a438f88d9b98da42ab76cd585a101ec1",
-  "0x50e53a797b6b889c5bbe19fcc7bd7f9eb9ede39f",
+  "0xff34c2cc46e7624310f3549ea355540d57a4694b",
+  "0xd5a32eba30f8baa08c3f12880ff6525f926d5b70",
   "0x91ac00e15e85a986f4d3d035e3d9b1b4ac435ff3",
-  "0xbe0a86f399d6e690d37e9471ea0b9375a89fb267",
-  "0xdc4f58a48ed4467743609fdce11eea483c759804",
-  "0xfd3e6449d0c1e807501dcc17c0d9447201f35a7a",
-  "0x5b335d15730525051850b1104944d3add933d653",
-  "0x56cc7a163d7a56134a394b76abaa47c7bdcad589",
-  "0x3a855ba8cdce3fce20ddf6c2867c4889cfa1e543",
-  "0x6683015d89998282a0d9be2570bf1e1471d38b7e",
-  "0x98883c610e4400dd998f81cf41658d51ff06e6fe",
-  "0x747fda2528435ab2719fdc36d07b4248af61f2d7",
-  "0x64d4c540211c48ce4cb7b853ffcb0df2b438f056",
+  "0x19673598d769d46f729a31c72169c47b010830b5",
+  "0x4126330ba61224a3b265921fcdea1adc50d6e68b",
+  "0xe83abacce6bf35b11b8de4c890ea4bf19d218355",
   "0x42c99f38d2b951b0dc8e8bd5371fa80c9dd19623",
-  "0xc2bec11a79567ea92f7c5dfa6587eadaede6af12",
-  "0x7d0caf83488431bb760f204d52bdf5246e2fa3b7",
-  "0xc39969c3ccce23cb870f4fffd92e88cba04f53ab",
-  "0xb8fc63b6b017d941510cd32e275058c40171b543",
-  "0x4462e46cf0d31466693058893f4913e2411fbfdf",
-  "0x209f44d8e117c9bc443a3cadae55e6ccc9cb0eb4",
+  "0x7d0e41915dd94259bbe9dae12d33b1c26d304f01",
+  "0xeea3f08e8a36081233e4c4b4142fd61a7b56a6a2",
+  "0xdc4f58a48ed4467743609fdce11eea483c759804",
+  "0x6683015d89998282a0d9be2570bf1e1471d38b7e",
+  "0xe29c038d6eacea4c98d7c39cd2583e940b28a31d",
+  "0xeda9da7fe9a6992128f5008ddbd7156cef74f624",
+  "0xc1fd8001916292efc9343e2d555bb67e9edb10cc",
+  "0x50e53a797b6b889c5bbe19fcc7bd7f9eb9ede39f",
+  "0x4cd4554904388f7efe1f95bb0eba3dd507c38a5c",
+  "0x14e72e19ea2f6e2be41504dd3268184ebe5fa32c",
+  "0x54e00a1ceb7f3b7c0bd240d1deeb0edb6b0eb02c",
+  "0xfb8edbc409120f8dbab8df8e723037e0fe773dc3",
   "0x77bcf759a5bbbf604a52d839d5f68ead4c78b91b",
+  "0xdc41c39b95453c943174f369926018f6963bdd7e",
+  "0x2ad531734533078236780a5acda36d91037a62ff",
+  "0x5e507cd1b1136f55b5487089cf424df9d257c665",
+  "0x325f0e5b5afc66ff54102d850f67f0c621304511",
+  "0xd9e0aaca471f489be338fd0f91a26e8669a805f2",
+  "0x8d10b39465225d7a881b56b4af8354997f0c940a",
+  "0x2262474668f524ef50c65dd308852feb805b21a1",
+  "0x80d8dddcfdc075eb70f6d2d774a27bfb255ab703",
+  "0xe08771473b2f794127c54957825cc716e01abc81",
+  "0xc846f5368ab49a854d2280b7ecff92669824c413",
+  "0xe8e086f7ef06af27889edfb5026e1453c61d7eec",
+  "0x3654e2c92f08f722e8983db1f5d48c8962bf1b78",
+  "0xcd96b01fac6276ac3d8ad618dacca0d3592f11a3",
+  "0xafafeebd1d3b9c3391099aa3db30c75ca77d1635",
   "0x365f951dc281322d83f6fcda884c7f66a938706a",
-  "0x32b484581fc5606de9c1e43af4636b6be9bc8b21"
+  "0xfd3e6449d0c1e807501dcc17c0d9447201f35a7a",
+  "0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318",
+  "0x7e5972bfc25819775ee5a9d4f191919375487b8b",
+  "0xc2bec11a79567ea92f7c5dfa6587eadaede6af12"
  ]
 }

research/sharp_halflife.py

@@ -21,7 +21,23 @@ SIGNAL decay, not our execution (T3/T11 own execution).
 Outputs: EV/bet by age-in-set bucket (0-2d / 3-6d / 7-13d / 14d+),
 pooled AND per-wallet-day mean-of-means (concentration guard), plus the
 survival curve (fraction of detected wallets still published at age k).
-NOT pre-registered — informs a rotation policy for the follow set."""
+NOT pre-registered — informs a rotation policy for the follow set.
+
+VERDICT (2026-07-27, cached-only grading, COVERAGE 14%): NO EDGE DECAY.
+EV/bet by age-in-set: 0-2d +$13.75 (n=867) · 3-6d +$17.97 (n=839) ·
+7-13d +$22.24 (n=1,569) · 14d+ +$19.81 (n=2,406) — the FRESHEST bucket
+is the weakest and edge holds past two weeks. Set against the survival
+curve (49% of detections gone within 1 day, 11% at 28d), the churn is
+THRESHOLD JITTER around the z-cutoff, not wallets going stale.
+=> Do NOT build an age-based rotation rule; age is not a decay signal.
+Caveats: 14% coverage (cached chain truth only — rises on its own as
+other nightlies fill the payouts cache; rerun later to confirm) and
+top-5 wallets carry 44% of the pooled total.
+
+METHOD NOTE: ensure() over every cond these wallets ever touched was a
+TREADMILL (84k conds, RPC-bound, count grows daily) — five runs across
+five days never finished it. Cached-only + honest coverage answered the
+same question in minutes. Pass --ensure to crawl the tail anyway."""
 import collections
 import json
 import os
@@ -120,14 +136,29 @@ def main():
           flush=True)
 
     import payouts
+    # CACHED-ONLY grading (2026-07-27): ensure() over every cond these
+    # wallets ever touched is a TREADMILL — 84k conds, RPC-bound, and the
+    # count grows daily as they keep betting; five runs across five days
+    # never finished it. The question ("does edge decay after detection")
+    # does not need every historical bet: it needs an unbiased sample of
+    # post-detection ones. So grade what chain truth is ALREADY cached and
+    # report coverage; the cache fills from every other nightly anyway, so
+    # coverage rises on its own without a dedicated crawl.
     conds = sorted({b[1] for b in bets if b[1]})
-    print(f"ensuring {len(conds)} conds against chain…", flush=True)
-    payouts.ensure(conds)
+    if "--ensure" in sys.argv:
+        print(f"ensuring {len(conds)} conds against chain…", flush=True)
+        payouts.ensure(conds)
+    else:
+        print(f"cached-only grading over {len(conds)} conds "
+              f"(pass --ensure to crawl the uncached tail)", flush=True)
 
     per_bucket = {tag: [] for _, _, tag in BUCKETS}
     per_wd = {tag: collections.defaultdict(list) for _, _, tag in BUCKETS}
     graded = skipped = 0
     for w, cond, asset, p, ts in bets:
+        if ts is None or p is None:        # cache rows with no entry time
+            skipped += 1
+            continue
         if ts // 86400 < det_n[w]:
             continue                    # pre-detection bet
         pay = payouts.truth(cond, asset)
@@ -142,8 +173,11 @@ def main():
                 per_bucket[tag].append(ev)
                 per_wd[tag][(w, int(ts // 86400))].append(ev)
                 break
+    cov = 100 * graded / max(1, graded + skipped)
     print(f"chain-graded post-detection bets: {graded} "
-          f"(ungraded/refund skipped: {skipped})\n", flush=True)
+          f"(ungraded/refund skipped: {skipped}) · COVERAGE {cov:.0f}%"
+          f"{'  ⚠ low — treat buckets as indicative' if cov < 50 else ''}\n",
+          flush=True)
 
     print("EV BY AGE-IN-SET (per $100 at the wallet's own entry, feeless):",
           flush=True)

research/surge_book.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
- "computed_at": "2026-07-25 23:22 UTC",
+ "computed_at": "2026-08-07 21:34 UTC",
  "spec": {
   "bank": 100.0,
   "stake_pct": 0.05,
@@ -600,7 +600,7 @@
    65.22
   ],
   [
-   1785021753,
+   1786138484,
    60.83
   ]
  ]

rtds_shadow.live.jsonl

@@ -2078,3 +2078,81 @@
 {"ts": 1785166439.87, "trade_ts": 1785166439, "lat_s": 0.87, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 54.6, "price": 0.22, "title": "", "tx": "0x1d7efd3602d5729255d54a7f8752d6408a8cdc28b986628810a5f18e684ffca7", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1785166462.76, "trade_ts": 1785166462, "lat_s": 0.76, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 10.117646, "price": 0.849999990116278, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "tx": "0xf8ff3960c913a682ea4908dce6487170261b8a825c2567f462068f71a800e603", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1785166464.44, "trade_ts": 1785166464, "lat_s": 0.44, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 10.666665, "price": 0.140624928222645, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?", "tx": "0x7be9420a3829808126d60c5a8ec89e2aafe8e0407ee7e3126c14483ba2270937", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785166548.02, "trade_ts": 1785166547, "lat_s": 1.02, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 8.07, "price": 0.85, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "tx": "0x31d9a584b9f3d4c10271bb770e7eab3679c41cdb822af903387526176c0831b2", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785166548.13, "trade_ts": 1785166547, "lat_s": 1.13, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 8.07, "price": 0.15, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?", "tx": "0xec76a8eddaf18e45b01a291cab38e16dc2afa0b3ba32c0751b309ecf31fef710", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785166550.55, "trade_ts": 1785166550, "lat_s": 0.55, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 2.04, "price": 0.9, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "tx": "0x3ddf981d4405cecf74c6bd7564ca87661d6920d03b341b686b249c5f488b240f", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785166554.74, "trade_ts": 1785166550, "lat_s": 4.74, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 2.04, "price": 0.14, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?", "tx": "0x45e34e31cf5737cc687eea39814abaf384c863e3c863cc8fbb4106c487dbb052", "seen": true}
+{"ts": 1785166572.32, "trade_ts": 1785166572, "lat_s": 0.32, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 12.666665, "price": 0.089999932894728, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?", "tx": "0x6fda4d82d773ac70ff77329662fb4ca80f1a6edbb71a8fa0105fec70f8d8d7b0", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785166572.46, "trade_ts": 1785166572, "lat_s": 0.46, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 11.488887, "price": 0.89999997388781, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "tx": "0x78ffbc4eb4d0d51e9806dde15e4fab1a3e5ede7448c46ea4fec48479d711b1db", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785166577.56, "trade_ts": 1785166577, "lat_s": 0.55, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 11.488887, "price": 0.89999997388781, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "tx": "0x50fdc368912fd8a7caa4c0d6c74d0147831b18341b16a0b66ffbc2b0ef71ef41", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785166577.63, "trade_ts": 1785166577, "lat_s": 0.63, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 12.536, "price": 0.0909380982769623, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?", "tx": "0xe38a61919a1d2c908cd958c30b78d50a4076d6f67c999e30410c999634ea2ad0", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785166594.89, "trade_ts": 1785166594, "lat_s": 0.89, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 10, "price": 0.92, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "tx": "0x0f108c2c0a837c2c30c213339ffb85c856d3f3bf0fe5106b20ccc565992fd5ed", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785166600.59, "trade_ts": 1785166595, "lat_s": 5.59, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 10, "price": 0.08, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?", "tx": "0xd48e53e4f4b8a56164b16b1f34299a7dd02aeef8abd970ca6f73fefb916a13cd", "seen": true}
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+{"ts": 1785166625.87, "trade_ts": 1785166619, "lat_s": 6.87, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 10, "price": 0.9, "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "tx": "0xfc631766502a4f30314b49d08ca883116babafcd7dfc4bbc90bd0c2b7bcf8615", "seen": true}
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+{"ts": 1785170374.65, "trade_ts": 1785170374, "lat_s": 0.65, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 25, "price": 0.93, "title": "Will LAB reach $24 before 2027?", "tx": "0x24eb88f749883a2c320403a97183ef6206d2ca814c19a42b7f6abc4c0862c265", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785170376.38, "trade_ts": 1785170374, "lat_s": 2.38, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 25, "price": 0.08, "title": "Will LAB reach $22 before 2027?", "tx": "0xdf60e4df2b384e44fa312bb8c25af577d2adb57153eed49a46c887ed0726cee9", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785170509.59, "trade_ts": 1785170509, "lat_s": 0.59, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 205.76, "price": 0.028, "title": "Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by Jul", "tx": "0xac6662d6a67789d06d6057951ef54fa5e8bdc44cb03f1d181f49969935c7d20f", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785170523.88, "trade_ts": 1785170523, "lat_s": 0.88, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 15, "price": 0.35, "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 ", "tx": "0x0ed93c89e31c0d6d5f56e12d9b33e59519303da011e53983ab67eff536644db5", "seen": false}
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+{"ts": 1785171574.03, "trade_ts": 1785171573, "lat_s": 1.03, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 19, "price": 0.35, "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 ", "tx": "0xfbf20a8628c2f029736100e4157c106af66ff465ceaff3b6be96d35231574deb", "seen": false}
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+{"ts": 1785171799.05, "trade_ts": 1785171798, "lat_s": 1.05, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 20, "price": 0.35, "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 ", "tx": "0x38c8216fb92be07be534163bc338a566a3e4b7d2cac4db9427a0b7a89d9ab7b5", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785172092.59, "trade_ts": 1785172092, "lat_s": 0.59, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 21, "price": 0.35, "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 ", "tx": "0xe92a98db3388db10bcc7d6b95f0bb4b01c2998afcd24df36b0a8d9bee9b035c9", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785172916.79, "trade_ts": 1785172916, "lat_s": 0.79, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 14, "price": 0.35, "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 ", "tx": "0x8c75e36cab4b95adc922600548a0ae24a0c333fce566af3fb3ab92912c6c426e", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785172962.5, "trade_ts": 1785172962, "lat_s": 0.5, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 25, "price": 0.35, "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 ", "tx": "0xacd52d73bdf71233ca97015f65af84783c004d19bc1e57fef22e9be83a85c0c5", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785173433.19, "trade_ts": 1785173432, "lat_s": 1.19, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 73, "price": 0.35, "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 ", "tx": "0x23ab2c869f4b66b5ea8cde0a4e2bf7a1358bd3cbb989e116c891737e56bc6b28", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785173459.87, "trade_ts": 1785173459, "lat_s": 0.87, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 125, "price": 0.35, "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 ", "tx": "0xd1885ce2d3925a8130de6974aee9fb7ccfa2a788a54a41223447f11144fd6a3b", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785173663.44, "trade_ts": 1785173663, "lat_s": 0.44, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 5.882346, "price": 0.1500000170000201, "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "tx": "0xb2009512ef6fdc54e48e0a59a92d4be5071881cf9ddddc77d601a1686a16442d", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785173713.01, "trade_ts": 1785173712, "lat_s": 1.01, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 32, "price": 0.35, "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 ", "tx": "0xcf31da3510645fb6dfdbc8b87d794c795929cf4948d5b60ab154c121220d0e27", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785175033.12, "trade_ts": 1785175032, "lat_s": 1.12, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 58.823526, "price": 0.1500000017000001, "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "tx": "0x3b2249383410f3f641c86663d387fd2798b421105d054036fce800524a9e60ff", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785175094.31, "trade_ts": 1785175093, "lat_s": 1.31, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 30.1, "price": 0.042, "title": "Amazon 2026 capex above $190B?", "tx": "0xc2ad8deeaeea052d127675f262642cb681902136a3cab5d736a69fee7895f837", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785175094.39, "trade_ts": 1785175094, "lat_s": 0.39, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 30.1, "price": 0.9630239202657807, "title": "Amazon 2026 capex above $180B?", "tx": "0x1820a066b49e2f12faea38800641dd1498b9d836bac064ea4c743a7e5eaf07f3", "seen": false}
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