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nightly ledgers: study C days 22-27, study D chain grade n=377 [skip ci]

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jaxperro
2026-07-27 15:18:30 -04:00
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research/forward_ledger.jsonl
+12
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@@ -76,3 +76,15 @@
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research/lag_paper_ledger.jsonl
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{"event": "mlb-ari-wsh-2026-07-26", "outc": "washington nationals", "leader": "40129594399931795387014801107209174257364508950643609968802447320132878552007", "lead_mv": 0.1, "lead_px": 0.51, "sgn": 1, "asset": "53757599351417362368809839154050479069980202519120045755626317622569067253927", "cond": "0xf113ece97133d908011aaf7103f4abef41c8104b70df06cbed7f1ef51e7ec7ec", "title": "Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)", "stale": 0.67, "ts": 1785090285.925, "price": 0.60133, "best_ask": 0.6, "premium": -0.07, "shares": 75.0, "cost": 45.1, "fee": 0.897, "levels": 2, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 55, "clob_ck": 1785105609.0722828, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785105610, "pnl": 29.0, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 29.0, "flip": false}
{"event": "mlb-atl-bal-2026-07-26", "outc": "atlanta braves", "leader": "30519653332508530179454569159533055105196612013702424206846808005047319378269", "lead_mv": -0.11, "lead_px": 0.75, "sgn": -1, "asset": "10698611025643007101998358863033946597527283661150358165134809574176398200180", "cond": "0x11dd3223a00892f7f2ca33ae13f4497c523b36fe37e72abf7f48c4f6f37327e2", "title": "Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)", "stale": 0.12, "ts": 1785097237.318, "price": 0.05122, "best_ask": 0.05, "premium": -0.07, "shares": 82.0, "cost": 4.2, "fee": 0.126, "levels": 2, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 53, "clob_ck": 1785105730.4155128, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785105731, "pnl": -4.33, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -4.33, "flip": false}
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{"event": "cs2-fx-isg-2026-07-26", "outc": "fluxo", "leader": "115195605422888754850649385349166586570770950211592960568180941162940183353455", "lead_mv": 0.12, "lead_px": 0.76, "sgn": 1, "asset": "15418054518189534766138604192088345890232373345480071974724661550962035758416", "cond": "0x84f92deaeff491ded60dde067db130e0cb267c85b96bc0a790b22d7c2fbe75ff", "title": "Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Isurus (+1.5)", "stale": 0.56, "ts": 1785095105.503, "price": 0.01333, "best_ask": 0.001, "premium": -0.559, "shares": 7501.5441, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 5, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 43, "clob_ck": 1785105972.92189, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785105974, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
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{"event": "mlb-cin-stl-2026-07-26", "outc": "cincinnati reds", "leader": "39008355759021524445361300554423980994850328161364440853996112044626092205964", "lead_mv": 0.101, "lead_px": 0.441, "sgn": 1, "asset": "48486988848778698431206586803086608347725905898901379580453890871263048813752", "cond": "0x0e4d5589dc3dc438061fe179b25f9109f698a469c92ae1f72a2d7f815ca97320", "title": "Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)", "stale": 0.33, "ts": 1785092207.777, "price": 0.33, "best_ask": 0.33, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 303.0303, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1785106094.2548518, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785106095, "pnl": 200.03, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 200.03, "flip": false}
{"event": "mlb-cin-stl-2026-07-26", "outc": "st. louis cardinals", "leader": "52260286912244005804082068856512233731100820739451712858220868598900895611236", "lead_mv": 0.11, "lead_px": 0.73, "sgn": 1, "asset": "112081414200246561525719372988431319341874271648101726771836465228649295380175", "cond": "0x0e4d5589dc3dc438061fe179b25f9109f698a469c92ae1f72a2d7f815ca97320", "title": "Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)", "stale": 0.85, "ts": 1785094886.874, "price": 0.85, "best_ask": 0.85, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 117.6471, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 0.5294, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 53, "clob_ck": 1785106094.2548518, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785106095, "pnl": -100.53, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -100.53, "flip": false}
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{"event": "mlb-kc-det-2026-07-26", "outc": "kansas city royals", "leader": "1023477287947886716701842625417252410303774183647366978809623375449714876367", "lead_mv": 0.2, "lead_px": 0.81, "sgn": 1, "asset": "34099852128538206033595094655316405308160653512470310911851185772695932471956", "cond": "0xd77a90d7dcee7cc57869c6992ccdab902502d45a9d860e0cbf3d1d8932f261e9", "title": "Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)", "stale": 0.21, "ts": 1785097565.945, "price": 0.22, "best_ask": 0.22, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 13.56, "cost": 2.98, "fee": 0.0895, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 47, "clob_ck": 1785106336.906464, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785106338, "pnl": -3.07, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -3.07, "flip": false}
{"event": "mlb-sea-tex-2026-07-26", "outc": "texas rangers", "leader": "76427048567413796904946421030541248917327130598531444807135893543425546434597", "lead_mv": 0.13, "lead_px": 0.2, "sgn": 1, "asset": "79716447553394212574516867184241963672360572961400205193885765197434632354692", "cond": "0xe861e1841da9a12c3d94ebb6653d47384b46f4b140f59c0577b018d699ed071c", "title": "Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)", "stale": 0.07, "ts": 1785100616.945, "price": 0.06702, "best_ask": 0.059, "premium": -0.011, "shares": 84.58, "cost": 5.67, "fee": 0.1701, "levels": 4, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 52, "clob_ck": 1785106458.3011458, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785106459, "pnl": -5.84, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -5.84, "flip": false}
{"event": "mlb-kc-det-2026-07-26", "outc": "kansas city royals", "leader": "1023477287947886716701842625417252410303774183647366978809623375449714876367", "lead_mv": 0.1, "lead_px": 0.46, "sgn": 1, "asset": "62440345452173658037490928548724275890388670626111420427840899471971560616271", "cond": "0xd4329110acd9ded4e508c85d5190f57e7710cbed90855b21ed627b37179be68c", "title": "Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)", "stale": 0.6553, "ts": 1785087853.763, "price": 0.66, "best_ask": 0.66, "premium": 0.0047, "shares": 42.56, "cost": 28.09, "fee": 0.4341, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 48, "clob_ck": 1785106458.3011458, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785106459, "pnl": 14.04, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 14.04, "flip": false}
{"event": "mlb-laa-sf-2026-07-26", "outc": "los angeles angels", "leader": "80824554254077209098617116835308543146966107370694502774649618639552235172043", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.82, "sgn": -1, "asset": "43789939848550256150450557438459075132132103513955806876528336903487049916950", "cond": "0xae7be251e810b5a087d5d1a1a3aef68b02162475ba20b52eff0fed23ec1e8d9a", "title": "Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)", "stale": 0.29, "ts": 1785100871.93, "price": 0.1305, "best_ask": 0.129, "premium": -0.161, "shares": 100.0, "cost": 13.05, "fee": 0.3915, "levels": 3, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 46, "clob_ck": 1785106943.3951294, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785106944, "pnl": -13.44, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -13.44, "flip": false}
{"event": "mlb-laa-sf-2026-07-26", "outc": "san francisco giants", "leader": "36112091862737717344616024310046985326972158541797580651850526389974882908770", "lead_mv": 0.11, "lead_px": 0.25, "sgn": 1, "asset": "43789939848550256150450557438459075132132103513955806876528336903487049916950", "cond": "0xae7be251e810b5a087d5d1a1a3aef68b02162475ba20b52eff0fed23ec1e8d9a", "title": "Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)", "stale": 0.29, "ts": 1785101795.792, "price": 0.282, "best_ask": 0.28, "premium": -0.01, "shares": 50.0, "cost": 14.1, "fee": 0.423, "levels": 2, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1785106943.3951294, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785106944, "pnl": -14.52, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -14.52, "flip": false}
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{"event": "cs2-rustec-innerc-2026-07-27", "outc": "ex-rustec", "leader": "96191580196847786574827331622677881330188344440606622073190882187066106626639", "lead_mv": -0.29, "lead_px": 0.37, "sgn": -1, "asset": "92267746472924415279188001683743495130554122625841340180467573520877926627034", "cond": "0x10754138b854d5d389918e7d8d37de9a10f637196d5446ff996d12c1be815a2d", "title": "Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Inner Circle Academy - Map 2 Wi", "stale": 0.479, "ts": 1785163836.153, "price": 0.48, "best_ask": 0.48, "premium": 0.001, "shares": 208.3333, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 52, "clob_ck": 1785178252.7232025, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785178254, "pnl": 105.33, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 105.33, "flip": false}
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{"event": "wta-cocciar-tauson-2026-07-27", "outc": "tauson", "leader": "95789830895604369244754344647004428159571623640402383415410714701638099337128", "lead_mv": -0.28, "lead_px": 0.45, "sgn": -1, "asset": "253088177525669873062765336742935897769214283186786967538925827564678123320", "cond": "0xf77a31a66803129f8f285b267f7cd67682f1920bef928a9056dff51a9fb09258", "title": "Set Handicap: Cocciaretto (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5)", "stale": 0.13, "ts": 1785170411.26, "price": 0.08, "best_ask": 0.08, "premium": -0.05, "shares": 500.0, "cost": 40.0, "fee": 1.2, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 54, "clob_ck": 1785179224.405144, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785179225, "pnl": -41.2, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -41.2, "flip": false}