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copybot: live paper feed [skip ci]

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copybot[bot]
2026-08-04 14:09:30 +00:00
parent 4aa421761d
commit 96f464a46f
6 changed files with 68 additions and 44 deletions
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copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
+1
View File
@@ -103,3 +103,4 @@
{"ts": 1784292916, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "60643960237912042991623385995992740897392655866310010945852324078346572439711", "cond": "0x0cd083d5f5c038e479f99618104cf4c1189a26db07b36806d4e46d4c21d019a7", "title": "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "Vici Gaming", "price": 0.3425, "stake": 105.13, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 0.34, "settled": 1784293574, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.3572}
{"ts": 1784303812, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "110536989543612561899836326685728311541346128503675227319696677241365666291302", "cond": "0x33202ea27cf7fbf8d387c6ef1e0eb956dc999ffb96385b6fe67b84ea4a364952", "title": "Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.57, "stake": 102.53, "reason": "order rejected: no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": -15.26, "settled": 1784303999, "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "exit_price": 0.5}
{"ts": 1784305076, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "28782906734976367034652809126970357901755811695575578507894349405056833093999", "cond": "0x2958e5aaa8ff729d588001f798ea3b84ad0d786927e1a92bd819d8c87477a640", "title": "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "Nigma Galaxy", "price": 0.09, "stake": 102.53, "reason": "book unreliable (spread 0.16 > 0.08)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 158.1, "settled": 1784305303, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.2367}
{"ts": 1784340508, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "75617938399072215829402097410146281839699850277349010268419461006890822261261", "cond": "0x68ffc65d12b23f8f259ff5e69c3af7a2403fc324ce812ea36fb645c8f5e66be3", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET", "outcome": "Up", "price": 0.2037, "stake": 105.73, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 340.64, "settled": 1784341135, "name": "1kto1m", "exit_price": 0.8683}
copybot_rejects.jsonl
+4
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@@ -2316,3 +2316,7 @@
{"ts": 1785851539.5, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "33434553646433873066691190813166713385472132781052531982775029257732345265276", "cond": "0xfd08056dee526375e4a4ec411cd1dc0026ca76413a7ee135a658b6a8e8f219b9", "usd": 5.0, "price": 0.001, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?", "mode": "paper"}
{"ts": 1785851555.4, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "76355575366199131615480497373071177054974407943554205063526354154961569390080", "cond": "0xd807b4f7da58129a1f3b63c3bf17e6f789876a34c3bf1b00aafce5a9f4d89bdf", "usd": 18.4, "price": 0.04, "reason": "$18 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?", "mode": "paper"}
{"ts": 1785851562.1, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "76355575366199131615480497373071177054974407943554205063526354154961569390080", "cond": "0xd807b4f7da58129a1f3b63c3bf17e6f789876a34c3bf1b00aafce5a9f4d89bdf", "usd": 12.01, "price": 0.04, "reason": "$12 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?", "mode": "paper"}
{"ts": 1785851871.2, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "104628309488587616237515900963758328926363798303475209280258444561216878013118", "cond": "0xceb73b756d1dffbb60452a86efbca93efea9453a6f5078b2c8fd49dda3f5ccee", "usd": 116.66, "price": 0.7, "reason": "$117 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?", "mode": "paper"}
{"ts": 1785852019.4, "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", "token": "70442277358045220295202702179666923304931957383531190500310453084573026048426", "cond": "0xbbab6708cab2be32ffb3bd7ced3ba1a16a57c53a1de04afa9864a3b6a349e5ff", "usd": 0.09, "price": 0.5, "reason": "$0 < conviction floor $80", "title": "Aston Villa vs. BG Pathum United: Both Teams to Score", "mode": "paper"}
{"ts": 1785852373.0, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "56465933220082022835700817063946174635909725507734416248556389304448520396318", "cond": "0x30174f3f46398e37c96a07b45916e01eab9a8a854ecb624ac73a91a8490fd074", "usd": 54.5, "price": 0.0637751173214432, "reason": "$54 < conviction floor $227", "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?", "mode": "paper"}
{"ts": 1785852517.6, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "23850405574478816400886386948262747932170814770599060543337553186558852100354", "cond": "0x4938db4a60db6a4de08e1e602f21e7a6eaab093c0b2d3fb5f69beb04d638d1ab", "usd": 22.93, "price": 0.3399999918, "reason": "$23 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $158 Week of August 3 2026?", "mode": "paper"}
copybot_state.json
+24 -24
View File
@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
{
"started_at": 1783541947.246319,
"seen_tx": [
"0x34bfca3d8e9ce551e3752341c1f194ee3dc3187c27d452dd847976cf17313bdd",
"0xdbb05fcc4258d3ea72a5a312410050b3f617c46780e61db5d00d075a44f5a06f",
"0x00221de186fbcf150e4a456824a2a80ab4cd39b996a6ceffd63c783e1cfe3942",
"0x639f303ee469c5dacf67613b8de3fc1c5ad153e208d86ffff91f4349981957bf",
@@ -5000,7 +4999,8 @@
"0x82ad8e7691511fcf9084be9b1d192cc73b145952112c51cf4abdc05528b8de4d",
"0xadfc11250c2b5b07352f4a9a116a6cc6a5f0b1d4021546c455e2d8bd8f0990ed",
"0x55f3f9c95f7cf735637ab76d4fca38f38ec2ace0bdf6b613c634ffe0f1cd6e55",
"0xc748690c8b86482eb6a32e5b541aac2d8ee556a6ccb95e207dbdf5401e0c925e"
"0xc748690c8b86482eb6a32e5b541aac2d8ee556a6ccb95e207dbdf5401e0c925e",
"0xd643c30a90abd5448c3df95bad94c3117e3e61853c1f82a111ceb216044ec279"
],
"their_pos": {
"0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": {
@@ -7994,7 +7994,8 @@
"107357148322312303082076717944621942755425671514925383367747556579524494621779": 0.0,
"19740170008252304805212251881042413299490894274311314565362589020531658512914": 0.0,
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"105325057331617843593500921322985327200497446237876935215440565478876478702870": 0.0
"105325057331617843593500921322985327200497446237876935215440565478876478702870": 0.0,
"44952859930591206375449316303350129121071883825837753443431097609201876804363": 64.9
},
"0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": {
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@@ -21575,8 +21576,8 @@
}
},
"hwm": 3600.1933566560215,
"feed_sig": "3b71f3bca35fdf1b507b1a414ffaf012",
"feed_pushed_at": 1785851699.6826591,
"feed_sig": "9ea81c1891ff654b35899490abfac66c",
"feed_pushed_at": 1785852448.9418397,
"missed": [
{
"ts": 1783889397,
@@ -21608,22 +21609,6 @@
"settled": null,
"name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
},
{
"ts": 1784340508,
"wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
"token": "75617938399072215829402097410146281839699850277349010268419461006890822261261",
"cond": "0x68ffc65d12b23f8f259ff5e69c3af7a2403fc324ce812ea36fb645c8f5e66be3",
"title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET",
"outcome": "Up",
"price": 0.2037,
"stake": 105.73,
"reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
"status": "sold",
"pnl": 340.64,
"settled": 1784341135,
"name": "1kto1m",
"exit_price": 0.8683
},
{
"ts": 1784377056,
"wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
@@ -24753,6 +24738,21 @@
"pnl": null,
"settled": null,
"name": "0xbadaf319"
},
{
"ts": 1785852517,
"wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
"token": "44952859930591206375449316303350129121071883825837753443431097609201876804363",
"cond": "0x5f8b66fe0b59a44b181102f8c02b69630b5feddae7185ad5bf150fe4ee9aa16e",
"title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of August 3 2026?",
"outcome": "No",
"price": 0.6,
"stake": 52.95,
"reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time",
"status": "open",
"pnl": null,
"settled": null,
"name": "0xbadaf319"
}
],
"no_miss_toks": [
@@ -24952,12 +24952,12 @@
"trade_cursor": {
"0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
"0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
"0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1785841140,
"0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785851288,
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"0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785852516,
"0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1785429351,
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"0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1785834869,
"0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c": 1785851555,
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"boot": {
live/copybot_live.json
+18 -18
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@@ -2150,6 +2150,21 @@
}
],
"missed": [
{
"ts": 1785852517,
"wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
"token": "44952859930591206375449316303350129121071883825837753443431097609201876804363",
"cond": "0x5f8b66fe0b59a44b181102f8c02b69630b5feddae7185ad5bf150fe4ee9aa16e",
"title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of August 3 2026?",
"outcome": "No",
"price": 0.6,
"stake": 52.95,
"reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time",
"status": "open",
"pnl": null,
"settled": null,
"name": "0xbadaf319"
},
{
"ts": 1785838288,
"wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -3076,24 +3091,9 @@
"settled": 1785494766,
"name": "0xbadaf319",
"exit_price": 0.2972
},
{
"ts": 1785458766,
"wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
"token": "78728112054519033757681466973844566499703528896052761274000178959410659593",
"cond": "0x424a35de2ed7150339423462d110256fd1a40b6a5f07c0002433bc89201798d7",
"title": "Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?",
"outcome": "No",
"price": 0.75,
"stake": 53.59,
"reason": "price moved 0.68\u21920.75",
"status": "open",
"pnl": null,
"settled": null,
"name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
}
],
"missed_pnl": 21278.53,
"missed_pnl": 20937.89,
"last_fill": {
"ts": 1785849945,
"side": "BUY",
@@ -3109,7 +3109,7 @@
"wins": 36,
"open_cost": 695.3,
"open_n": 13,
"miss_n": 135,
"miss_n": 136,
"miss_pnl": 112417.55,
"last_ts": 1785844868
},
@@ -3204,5 +3204,5 @@
"last_ts": 0
}
},
"updated": 1785851760
"updated": 1785852517
}
live/copybot_live_full.json
+17 -2
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@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
{
"mode": "paper",
"updated": 1785851760,
"updated": 1785852517,
"wallet_pnl": {
"0xbadaf319": {
"realized": 655.37,
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
"wins": 36,
"open_cost": 695.3,
"open_n": 13,
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"miss_n": 136,
"miss_pnl": 112417.55,
"last_ts": 1785844868
},
@@ -7079,6 +7079,21 @@
}
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"missed": [
{
"ts": 1785852517,
"wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
"token": "44952859930591206375449316303350129121071883825837753443431097609201876804363",
"cond": "0x5f8b66fe0b59a44b181102f8c02b69630b5feddae7185ad5bf150fe4ee9aa16e",
"title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of August 3 2026?",
"outcome": "No",
"price": 0.6,
"stake": 52.95,
"reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time",
"status": "open",
"pnl": null,
"settled": null,
"name": "0xbadaf319"
},
{
"ts": 1785838288,
"wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
rtds_shadow.jsonl
+4
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@@ -2123,3 +2123,7 @@
{"ts": 1785851539.52, "trade_ts": 1785851539, "lat_s": 0.52, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 5005, "price": 0.001, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4,", "tx": "0x42a8353e2d18f29d236ebc8f578cb6e79d35a7d1baf5cbd62216cab3c0a09732", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1785851555.23, "trade_ts": 1785851555, "lat_s": 0.23, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 460, "price": 0.04, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4,", "tx": "0x5954889d622dd9648439eddf3b2bd5df1bd9f2e3d9a54d6839fb0e7d151c3664", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1785851562.08, "trade_ts": 1785851561, "lat_s": 1.08, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 300.15, "price": 0.04, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4,", "tx": "0xe2faa3f51b4ac8fd530b03b72f03353afd6465d9933fa683731cd438436a70c4", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1785851871.12, "trade_ts": 1785851870, "lat_s": 1.12, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 166.66, "price": 0.7, "title": "Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?", "tx": "0xaa4ecacf1608e3700f2bba3e051f65aaff8957e73824cb404f6e78e1513ee944", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1785852019.34, "trade_ts": 1785852019, "lat_s": 0.33, "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", "name": "Kruto2027", "side": "BUY", "size": 0.18, "price": 0.5, "title": "Aston Villa vs. BG Pathum United: Both Teams to Score", "tx": "0xef7c3aaf663cf3403945596545ee80c7a9a96d869d8bb142acf3610ce9023616", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1785852372.91, "trade_ts": 1785852372, "lat_s": 0.91, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 531.91, "price": 0.06, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?", "tx": "0x916ef5d2f18e388f5a6b1c8f125af7c22d2995b0f17cbfcaa23f2df7a3d5fd7f", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1785852373.05, "trade_ts": 1785852372, "lat_s": 1.05, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 322.58, "price": 0.07, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?", "tx": "0x916ef5d2f18e388f5a6b1c8f125af7c22d2995b0f17cbfcaa23f2df7a3d5fd7f", "seen": false}