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research: forward ledger 2026-07-28 [skip ci]

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jaxperro
2026-07-28 17:36:32 -04:00
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research/forward_ledger.jsonl
+12
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@@ -88,3 +88,15 @@
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research/lag_paper_ledger.jsonl
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@@ -375,3 +375,96 @@
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{"event": "mlb-atl-nym-2026-07-27", "outc": "new york mets", "leader": "32504699474280085635090226503755275072832835396689510905364445515020727721224", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.41, "sgn": -1, "asset": "102922346107709941470396897970273348183789745847377918295097336554472785870987", "cond": "0x34bb3b85503b2bb998fdccd4d9837a2104df7cebf7393691c775ca5e8d7598f7", "title": "Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)", "stale": 0.4222, "ts": 1785194017.496, "price": 0.45, "best_ask": 0.45, "premium": 0.0278, "shares": 222.2222, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1785207504.6400356, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785207505, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
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{"event": "mlb-nyy-cws-2026-07-27", "outc": "new york yankees", "leader": "81466989739776729126845480020769786467314810785028546058935599930987223898103", "lead_mv": 0.19, "lead_px": 0.68, "sgn": 1, "asset": "43169598282368173235630147144048887268225754847569252295948818196064991096687", "cond": "0x311045c686e2ce6517ea2004dcab4909f636d884435e0dd6a37d631ea4f028fd", "title": "Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)", "stale": 0.23, "ts": 1785205385.782, "price": 0.2, "best_ask": 0.2, "premium": -0.03, "shares": 500.0, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 48, "clob_ck": 1785212968.2330801, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785212969, "pnl": 397.0, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 397.0, "flip": false}
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{"event": "atp-tiafoe-atmane-2026-07-27", "outc": "tiafoe", "leader": "68825982748613634543504332921379268486763919418755265395162027228338134310465", "lead_mv": 0.16, "lead_px": 0.7, "sgn": 1, "asset": "4923575225106069368024270412291130798669430162069354832230239557846138943810", "cond": "0xe6b9f7aa7b446bd38333889abb16aeff18ca11f53307bf3fb7e5760655074e9d", "title": "Set Handicap: Atmane (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)", "stale": 0.92, "ts": 1785201256.063, "price": 0.91, "best_ask": 0.91, "premium": -0.01, "shares": 30.0, "cost": 27.3, "fee": 0.081, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 45, "clob_ck": 1785213453.3901832, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785213454, "pnl": 2.62, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 2.62, "flip": false}
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{"event": "mlb-chc-stl-2026-07-27", "outc": "chicago cubs", "leader": "111051906079271987494022085361827554796504988890735089432323704260282837509111", "lead_mv": 0.11, "lead_px": 0.77, "sgn": 1, "asset": "27804071856794947618687902335192566228168829721717782321823078625745939337888", "cond": "0x0a130deb9a261cf670143092129721158649409e0e3c4d10eed2f45718574c14", "title": "Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)", "stale": 0.85, "ts": 1785204506.212, "price": 0.89, "best_ask": 0.89, "premium": 0.04, "shares": 112.3596, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 0.3708, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1785216482.52065, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785216483, "pnl": 11.99, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 11.99, "flip": false}
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{"event": "mlb-bos-oak-2026-07-27", "outc": "boston red sox", "leader": "84181993993646338915734180764071536168848683188286566103016830902391055566207", "lead_mv": 0.112, "lead_px": 0.582, "sgn": 1, "asset": "28863711322676522967667113945973942780451704123022563899212696262675335756413", "cond": "0x32413b1395fc238800943cf370861d2dd315f3f3e886939b4e2781c9b1b631b6", "title": "Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)", "stale": 0.32, "ts": 1785206813.24, "price": 0.28, "best_ask": 0.28, "premium": -0.04, "shares": 20.0, "cost": 5.6, "fee": 0.168, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 47, "clob_ck": 1785216603.8397648, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785216605, "pnl": -5.77, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -5.77, "flip": false}
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{"event": "atp-nikles-barrena-2026-07-28", "outc": "barrena", "leader": "16171846847319217245561764572029674786871686197378495348237519046299271494988", "lead_mv": -0.57, "lead_px": 0.25, "sgn": -1, "asset": "23848292750987304402435807018759396854678202068515565798868113636833884314869", "cond": "0x65ed4301ab93f340b221d96798658e8102eb1175abb65a29e51c5070a2fbf7a3", "title": "Set 1 Winner: Nikles vs Barrena", "stale": 0.36, "ts": 1785223951.602, "price": 0.37, "best_ask": 0.37, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 15.0, "cost": 5.55, "fee": 0.1665, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 52, "clob_ck": 1785254362.7666643, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785254364, "pnl": 9.28, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 9.28, "flip": false}
{"event": "lol-hle-bro1-2026-07-28", "outc": "hanjin brion challengers", "leader": "82729460231549809642967795336406998979555602116462633772843891184477167181222", "lead_mv": 0.108, "lead_px": 0.418, "sgn": 1, "asset": "86900011373023369660863659431531558991986835553628463051770447308103948021233", "cond": "0x208179f6fbc86af1c08d2e6c1711b10aded16241e22b76fdd8aa75b04f99c5bd", "title": "LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challen", "stale": 0.47, "ts": 1785226082.245, "price": 0.499, "best_ask": 0.49, "premium": 0.02, "shares": 200.4, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 46, "clob_ck": 1785254362.7666643, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785254364, "pnl": 97.4, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 97.4, "flip": false}
{"event": "lol-drx-kt-2026-07-28", "outc": "kiwoom drx", "leader": "113148786171211515575814557736196157117111844981635573271461901697896543634364", "lead_mv": 0.164, "lead_px": 0.55, "sgn": 1, "asset": "68751792637308642512365414067475201609999219723548932008406686799580199256762", "cond": "0xbc6967fb8439b1ab92abb6be2b67c65bd73f2ed759a5a50688de6e1c56a5f8c7", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner", "stale": 0.37, "ts": 1785231091.206, "price": 0.37, "best_ask": 0.37, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 270.2703, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 53, "clob_ck": 1785254362.7666643, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785254364, "pnl": 167.27, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 167.27, "flip": false}
{"event": "cs2-blackp-enjoy-2026-07-28", "outc": "black phoenix", "leader": "25746883110021677767695785818389367713141575029145323192209821113692475391536", "lead_mv": 0.128, "lead_px": 0.988, "sgn": 1, "asset": "113105666807784348819062532247328126329061723012665467385216612407700179223894", "cond": "0x27e7440cb323dc921b47887e81b5895fed381831963775d2860cabdfce541629", "title": "Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Se", "stale": 0.69, "ts": 1785231091.33, "price": 0.65, "best_ask": 0.65, "premium": -0.04, "shares": 153.8462, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.6154, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1785254362.7666643, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785254364, "pnl": 52.23, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 52.23, "flip": false}
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{"event": "atp-justo-gueymar-2026-07-27", "outc": "justo", "leader": "51588588804873453523768780981721622213191205479358798522215018786447446596876", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.6, "sgn": -1, "asset": "76259076565824292552325982242573397014819686616572461844767730389688245077790", "cond": "0x980ddc59be2a1b2dcc53408bd41f89df407a346ad6fb2a92dbe07e08a9e49caa", "title": "Set Handicap: Justo (-1.5) vs Gueymard-Wayenburg (+1.5)", "stale": 0.6, "ts": 1785177308.95, "price": 0.6, "best_ask": 0.6, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 166.6667, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 2.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 55, "clob_ck": 1785254362.7666643, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785254364, "pnl": -102.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -102.0, "flip": false}
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{"event": "lol-bar-gxp-2026-07-28", "outc": "giantx itero", "leader": "92270979911672595491866048958764370831199194168759063323904862213777152407573", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.15, "sgn": -1, "asset": "100436562974203158222701682454490933015760172201222550990661155759584757102052", "cond": "0x27b1663ac1db47d10b4c626ef56c835fbb1003354b4b1ca390bf0d8d590d8a53", "title": "LoL: Bar\u00e7a eSports vs GIANTX iTero - Game 1 Winner", "stale": 0.9, "ts": 1785257720.326, "price": 0.91, "best_ask": 0.91, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 109.8901, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 0.2967, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 48, "clob_ck": 1785273905.1682663, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785273906, "pnl": 9.59, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 9.59, "flip": false}
{"event": "atp-fils-jodar-2026-07-27", "outc": "jodar", "leader": "114534721266494635499178849726704144990717651276353486395873444011864430376119", "lead_mv": -0.14, "lead_px": 0.34, "sgn": -1, "asset": "19562666199379112756591540642217908808541015169688673301676560322541694054636", "cond": "0xd8d302d8eb50f4b161401dbf3e448255d512c3d428ae103c4c64d6b62103aa36", "title": "Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5)", "stale": 0.4, "ts": 1785261720.659, "price": 0.39, "best_ask": 0.39, "premium": -0.01, "shares": 256.4103, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1785273905.1682663, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785273906, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
{"event": "wta-kasatki-kalinsk-2026-07-28", "outc": "kalinskaya", "leader": "38083907736193695407185670860322550936053770365390710837272707488816727300748", "lead_mv": 0.127, "lead_px": 0.999, "sgn": 1, "asset": "78303846018821624930742814754971353390879993264924609718366788354652929800226", "cond": "0x2a68aa6fc8f2d3310a33913608c9cc749ba0b0677eb877d821dae2ec8bf15eca", "title": "Set 2 Winner: Kasatkina vs Kalinskaya", "stale": 0.62, "ts": 1785269622.646, "price": 0.62, "best_ask": 0.62, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 161.2903, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.8387, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 54, "clob_ck": 1785274148.1811235, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785274149, "pnl": 59.45, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 59.45, "flip": false}
research/lean_paper_ledger.jsonl
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research/params/informed_set.json
+117 -117
View File
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
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}
research/params/maker_set.json
+169 -85
View File
File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff
research/surge_book.json
+2 -2
View File
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
{
"computed_at": "2026-07-25 23:22 UTC",
"computed_at": "2026-07-28 21:31 UTC",
"spec": {
"bank": 100.0,
"stake_pct": 0.05,
@@ -600,7 +600,7 @@
65.22
],
[
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60.83
]
]