copybot: live paper feed [skip ci]

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

HANDOFF.md

@@ -41,6 +41,27 @@ LIVE 2026-07-24 @d4fff27), #25 Study E position-scope conviction
 rolling net-USD aggregate; flip = operator's call). #18 (empty-cond copies unsettleable) closed same day: RTDS seed
 enrichment + falsy-cond repair pass + 1h alarm.
 
+## LIVE BOT PAUSED (user, 2026-07-27)
+`LIVE_CONFIRM` UNSET — wwf-copybot-live reboots into `geocheck --idle`
+(no clone, no book, no orders). Key + funder secrets untouched; re-arm =
+`flyctl secrets set LIVE_CONFIRM="TRADE LIVE" -a wwf-copybot-live`.
+State at pause: book $48.55 · $22.48 free · 15 open ($26.07, five at
+93-98c) · realized −$27.31. Open positions now ride to resolution
+UNMANAGED (no >=90c band exits; platform auto-redeems winners). /live
+feed is frozen at this state until re-armed.
+
+**WHY it was paused — the finding that triggered it:** Polymarket enforces
+a **5-share minimum per order** ("Size (1.47) lower than the minimum: 5").
+That is a PRICE-dependent dollar floor: at the book's $1 braked stake
+(4% of $48.55, halved by the drawdown brake, floored to the $1 venue
+min) only <=20c markets are reachable, so every 40-90c signal fired an
+order that could not succeed — 25 venue rejections in 3 days, while 204
+other signals were correctly floor-rejected as sub-conviction. Fixed at
+the gate (copytrade.MIN_SHARES=5.0 blocks with the shares/dollars
+needed instead of firing doomed orders), but the CAPITAL fact stands:
+**~$113 equity at 4%, or ~$225 under the drawdown brake, is the minimum
+viable size to trade 90c markets.** Sizing/funding is the USER's call.
+
 ## Operating boundary (user, 2026-07-13 — standing)
 **Full autonomy on the bots**; the real-money bot **stays ARMED**. Never
 touch the private key, Discord alerts webhook ROTATED 2026-07-19 (#3 closed),
@@ -194,6 +215,17 @@ Fly side fully autonomous: recorder (~3+ weeks headroom), 3 harnesses,
 both copybots — nothing depends on the Mac while paused. On return the
 tape mirror + nightly self-heal (freshness wait + ledger backfill).
 
+## Studies A + B DECOMMISSIONED (user directive 2026-07-25)
+#17 formally KILLED (final grades: oracle −$12.89/fill n=3,308 at E≥.04;
+surge A2 final −$2.17/fill n=8,700) · #19 closed · **wwf-surgebot +
+wwf-oraclebot scaled to 0** (machines destroyed, apps + volumes +
+ledgers retained frozen; full teardown = flyctl apps destroy). /test
+dash = Study C + Study D only. Study D first chain grade 07-25:
+**+$22.33/ep (+27.1% of staked) n=140, mirage KILLED (+4.0¢ median,
+n=321), ex-top-5 +$8.99/ep, edge concentrates in 15-40¢ complements**
+— PASS-track, bars n≥400/5d. Study C day-4: pooled +$0.007/lean
+n=12,542 — flat; neither bar met.
+
 ## Floors FROZEN (user directive 2026-07-24)
 All 7 conviction floors floor_pin'd at the 07-24 p80s (Kruto 80 ·
 0xbadaf319 27.50 · gkm 470.51 · 1kto1m 314.91 · Bikes 227.01 · AIcAIc

copybot.py

@@ -1746,6 +1746,13 @@ class Copybot:
             # without copies (2026-07-13 user report). n = lifetime copies,
             # n24 = fills in the window.
             "lag": (lambda t: {"n": lag.get("n", 0), "n24": t[0],
+                               # window empty -> we show the LIFETIME mean, so
+                               # SAY so; the tile used to label it "24h" and
+                               # quietly report a number dragged by the retired
+                               # poll era (2026-07-27 user report)
+                               "basis": ("24h" if t[1] is not None
+                                         else "lifetime" if lag.get("n")
+                                         else "none"),
                                "avg_s": (round(t[1], 1) if t[1] is not None
                                          else (round(lag["sum_s"] / lag["n"], 1)
                                                if lag.get("n") else None)),
@@ -2347,7 +2354,12 @@ class Copybot:
         if not rec:
             return 0, None, None
         n = len(rec)
-        return n, sum(r[1] for r in rec) / n, sum(r[2] for r in rec) / n
+        # MEDIAN, not mean (2026-07-27): one 269s early-rollout outlier made a
+        # 3s bot read as 25s. The tile is a health signal, not an accounting
+        # total, so the typical fill is the honest summary.
+        lags = sorted(r[1] for r in rec)
+        med = lags[n // 2] if n % 2 else (lags[n // 2 - 1] + lags[n // 2]) / 2
+        return n, med, sum(r[2] for r in rec) / n
 
     def summary(self, cycle):
         bank = self.cfg["bankroll_usd"]

copybot_fills.jsonl

@@ -969,3 +969,266 @@
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 {"ts": 1784999568.3, "side": "SELL", "token": "49331878508394871833592446045300865060542314418976779518068691623730505202112", "shares": 101.7779, "price": 1.0, "fee": 0.0, "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785011561.5, "side": "SELL", "token": "44955835255986870213886955575315970674806073263991248758756749076487124445148", "shares": 20.2619, "price": 0.92, "fee": 0.0447, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785051237.9, "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "token": "9750443237218684936401351443214131681943461238354594128478044162692102765046", "name": "AIcAIc", "outcome": "Ninjas in Pyjamas", "title": "LoL: LNG Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner", "detect_lag_s": 9.9, "their_price": 0.58, "my_price": 0.58, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 196.63, "cost": 114.05, "fee": 1.437, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.56, "ba": 0.57, "spread": 0.01, "bid5c": 13786.45, "ask5c": 24857.47}, "maker": true}
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+{"ts": 1785054579.2, "side": "SELL", "token": "9750443237218684936401351443214131681943461238354594128478044162692102765046", "shares": 100.0516, "price": 0.96, "fee": 0.1153, "mode": "paper"}
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copybot_fills.live.jsonl

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copybot_missed_archive.live.jsonl

@@ -43,3 +43,37 @@
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copybot_rejects.live.jsonl

@@ -5,3 +5,402 @@
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 {"ts": 1785012454.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "38884068172535805856055306821255818075942958190529114209704610647400987735157", "cond": "0x1dee5d0ada64742ca4a7a378caf2b572ec77e23a1810c07c6b90a3933c6643f4", "usd": 3.69, "price": 0.25, "reason": "$4 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101\u00b0F on July 25?", "mode": "live"}
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+{"ts": 1785175033.1, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 8.82, "price": 0.1500000017, "reason": "$9 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785175494.7, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "109560195847127443718098720993839508458395767835235641294925271566812897320563", "cond": "0xcdf022c2b67b00eeb6325e4f2e7471cc6db10f907185b12f0a1d5f41b5f64b11", "usd": 39.16, "price": 0.88, "reason": "$39 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Solary vs Esprit Sh\u014dnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785176159.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "23024890824928991931171457925717332651331351410702959969331637777186712345804", "cond": "0x1e2944f5396c5dd65ebd6ae74a1ad7d5b6ef41310ac4fb89e00a0a1c4be79215", "usd": 4.6, "price": 0.219999972260867, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Mounjaro sales be above $9.75B?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785176159.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "110215760658752952054086825519876111081636420232399895419831306493560319639468", "cond": "0x6b429cdeaaae79e40997e65bd17b372cd69bc6fe372998badf55eb320610b89e", "usd": 0.53, "price": 0.53, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Mounjaro sales be above $10.5B?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785176233.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "7563876384170328991093508345293910030919134701285431254369345261613508722844", "cond": "0xfc74a45166df83d2fe1f96b4f21e03c48814ba55a123eb8c4bc5664ffc364346", "usd": 0.53, "price": 0.53, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $143.5?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785176234.5, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "107329851418144236190548562808413375246774632562537915157353502219078013640218", "cond": "0xa20e250a5e0800bb6374b5eee619bdb0f51fff278bc4c13aef10645b5c8d6e8d", "usd": 7.6, "price": 0.38, "reason": "$8 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $142?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785176903.8, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "22243280273498234987031341437063630596733850966298635604549136405175256264690", "cond": "0x1a03b791d9670be09bce3ffd281cca2a98df7be99d4daeb9f1f44226271c6937", "usd": 2.12, "price": 0.68, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785178249.7, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 9.8, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$10 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785178581.0, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "99084894197465360825392240234914575924164907464372282353662854733930281112240", "cond": "0xaa8859787095503143c6909aef38089bee2757f4da906b1c0d2e84279e39f0a1", "usd": 16.8, "price": 0.8395002973230928, "reason": "$17 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $140.5?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785178581.1, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "7361545935938804750971113494538671145680968001907625519907041646375937676902", "cond": "0xae7b4333a7a5827436a80ef1498257155a11931b5ea380db74bd5c79a5820830", "usd": 2.8, "price": 0.14, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $139?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785179113.4, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 0.35, "price": 0.15, "reason": "$0 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785179209.7, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 1.08, "price": 0.3500000975000341, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785179608.8, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 2.49, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785180968.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "3352212270030970971065176500659733642539163570172678204545227744137098328443", "cond": "0x770170d4c1fcba074aaf166e0c7b17a5363ac996888dabc3b8ba3aa7ecbc80e4", "usd": 0.43, "price": 0.51, "reason": "$0 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785180972.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "9517313050774710930236335382783778767010533589089781595901530417522133486261", "cond": "0xb5d05433a58ebc99c17a31e44adfce64154b74f9a1b52a565b8cfd450270cc75", "usd": 11.69, "price": 0.46, "reason": "$12 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785181063.2, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "3352212270030970971065176500659733642539163570172678204545227744137098328443", "cond": "0x770170d4c1fcba074aaf166e0c7b17a5363ac996888dabc3b8ba3aa7ecbc80e4", "usd": 12.26, "price": 0.4960871430074373, "reason": "$12 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785184044.3, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 1.8, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785188899.3, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 1.88, "price": 0.3500000185714333, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785189887.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "102310045461734588077779078166990872317761226486600712678916824798493454810082", "cond": "0x263e0b8fd25ff0cbba70632c51d2815c8c4baee07485132909425769c4eacb34", "usd": 5.78, "price": 0.25, "reason": "$6 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785189887.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "90894528034844239433098400057663273138419716408873356788213029508523177653209", "cond": "0xe51b0cdb413eb9a18243e70c1f33705cdab18f4149b867f32f05650e758d8070", "usd": 16.66, "price": 0.740133, "reason": "$17 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785191883.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489", "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5", "usd": 18.7, "price": 0.55, "reason": "$19 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785191883.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "cond": "0x7f0d84b155c484b801f2cba68eb0f9ef8b2a0a54b7e6bb0fa53a1778964f53fd", "usd": 25.9, "price": 0.4, "reason": "$26 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785191896.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489", "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5", "usd": 16.62, "price": 0.5599999932611308, "reason": "$17 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785192499.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "114112791648091992484961360791130871882442300768649687759021814005678770195744", "cond": "0xd2bfe443d711e8b98256a572769876088a7a8d59b8a118be246c561931431d2a", "usd": 15.5, "price": 0.3, "reason": "$16 < conviction floor $28", "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 28?", "mode": "live"}

copytrade.py

@@ -33,6 +33,12 @@ CLOB_API = "https://clob.polymarket.com"
 POLYGON_CHAIN_ID = 137
 CONFIRM_PHRASE = "TRADE LIVE"
 
+# Polymarket rejects orders under this many shares regardless of dollar
+# value ("Size (1.47) lower than the minimum: 5", observed live 2026-07-27).
+# It makes the real floor PRICE-dependent: a 90c market needs $4.50, a 20c
+# market $1.00 — which is why a $1-stake book can only trade deep longshots.
+MIN_SHARES = 5.0
+
 DEFAULT_CONFIG = {
     "mode": "paper",                 # "paper" or "live"
     "poll_seconds": 12,              # how often to check each wallet
@@ -431,6 +437,17 @@ class CopyTrader:
         if allowed < r["min_order_usd"]:
             return 0.0, (f"capped to ${allowed:.2f} < min order "
                          f"${r['min_order_usd']:.2f} (caps)")
+        # VENUE SHARE MINIMUM (2026-07-27): Polymarket rejects any order
+        # under MIN_SHARES shares — "Size (1.47) lower than the minimum: 5"
+        # — which is a PRICE-dependent dollar floor the $-only gate above
+        # cannot see. At a $1 stake that caps us to <=20c markets; every
+        # 40-90c signal fired a doomed order and booked a venue rejection.
+        # Skip honestly instead, and say what the bet would have needed.
+        need = MIN_SHARES * price
+        if allowed < need - 1e-9:
+            return 0.0, (f"below venue {MIN_SHARES:g}-share minimum: "
+                         f"${allowed:.2f} at {price:.2f} = "
+                         f"{allowed / price:.2f} shares (needs ${need:.2f})")
         return allowed, None
 
     # -- process one of their trades --

fly.leanbot.toml

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+# wwf-leanbot — Study C Stage-2 maker-lean PAPER harness (research silo).
+# No keys, no orders, code baked in image. The screened wallet set is
+# published nightly by maker_set.py — the box never screens itself.
+# Verdict binds to #26; graded nightly on the Mac (grade_lean.py).
+app = "wwf-leanbot"
+primary_region = "arn"
+
+[build]
+  dockerfile = "research/leanbot.Dockerfile"
+
+[[mounts]]
+  source = "lean"
+  destination = "/data"
+
+# read-only paper feed (GET /feed, CORS-open)
+[http_service]
+  internal_port = 8080
+  force_https = true
+  auto_stop_machines = false
+  auto_start_machines = true
+  min_machines_running = 1
+
+[[restart]]
+  policy = "always"
+
+[[vm]]
+  size = "shared-cpu-1x"
+  memory = "256mb"

history/reconcile.csv

@@ -1,2 +1,6 @@
 date,live_bt_ev,live_fill_gap,live_filled_ev,live_filled_n,live_missed_ev,live_missed_n,live_realized,live_rejected_ev,live_rejected_n,live_unseen_ev,live_unseen_n,n,paper_bt_ev,paper_fill_gap,paper_filled_ev,paper_filled_n,paper_missed_ev,paper_missed_n,paper_rejected_ev,paper_rejected_n,paper_unseen_ev,paper_unseen_n,replica_pnl
 2026-07-24,3797,33,-250,14,1915,40,-16.58,0,0,2133,73,127,3797,593,548,23,299,37,0,0,2951,67,109.05
+2026-07-27,4030,43,-248,22,1839,56,-27.24,-300,3,2739,101,182,4030,615,1054,41,237,48,-300,3,3039,90,200.53
+2026-07-28,4443,43,-248,22,1908,68,-27.31,-241,4,3024,111,205,4443,617,996,46,543,60,-300,3,3204,96,170.53
+2026-07-29,5143,-12,-58,29,2504,84,-27.31,-341,5,3038,139,257,5143,613,1375,75,1062,71,-249,9,2955,102,44.11
+2026-07-30,4943,-12,-58,29,2318,87,-27.31,-273,7,2956,172,295,4943,657,1519,79,702,77,-247,14,2969,125,82.87

live/cache.py

@@ -64,7 +64,30 @@ def conv_cutoff(sizes, q=CONV_PCTILE):
     return s[f] if f + 1 >= len(s) else s[f] + (s[f + 1] - s[f]) * (k - f)
 
 _lock = threading.Lock()
-_con = duckdb.connect(DB)
+
+
+def _connect(db=None, tries=240, wait=15):
+    """duckdb is SINGLE-WRITER and this module connects at IMPORT time, so a
+    daily/nightly overlap used to raise straight out of `import cache` —
+    killing forward.py and, through nightly.sh's `set -e`, every grader
+    behind it (2026-07-27 and again 07-28: the graders silently never ran).
+    Wait the other writer out instead. 60 min, because the daily holds
+    this lock for its WHOLE collect+score phase (~30 min at 1.5 wallets/s
+    over ~2,600 wallets) — a 6-min wait died against it on 2026-07-29."""
+    db = db or DB
+    for i in range(tries):
+        try:
+            return duckdb.connect(db)
+        except Exception as e:
+            if "lock" not in str(e).lower() or i == tries - 1:
+                raise
+            if i == 0:
+                print(f"[cache] {os.path.basename(db)} locked by another "
+                      f"writer — waiting…", flush=True)
+            time.sleep(wait)
+
+
+_con = _connect()
 _con.execute("""CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bets(
     wallet TEXT, cond TEXT, asset TEXT, won BOOLEAN, p DOUBLE, res_t BIGINT,
     size DOUBLE, src TEXT, ts BIGINT, resolved BOOLEAN)""")

live/conviction_wallets.json

@@ -33,13 +33,13 @@
     "train_win": 100.0,
     "train_conv_roi": 1.249,
     "train_z": 9.66,
-    "z_all": 20.92,
+    "z_all": 20.89,
     "med_stake": 9800,
     "avg_entry": 0.46,
     "train_n": 79,
-    "fwd_win": 96.3,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.015,
-    "fwd_n": 27
+    "fwd_win": 97.0,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.064,
+    "fwd_n": 33
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x72e1597864456eda62878413cf3e60c332e4a45d",
@@ -51,9 +51,9 @@
     "med_stake": 474,
     "avg_entry": 0.52,
     "train_n": 322,
-    "fwd_win": 99.3,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.06,
-    "fwd_n": 277
+    "fwd_win": 98.5,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.055,
+    "fwd_n": 334
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455",
@@ -93,9 +93,9 @@
     "med_stake": 2350,
     "avg_entry": 0.53,
     "train_n": 106,
-    "fwd_win": 99.1,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.161,
-    "fwd_n": 117
+    "fwd_win": 99.2,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.162,
+    "fwd_n": 132
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x2ba9075a4393227d4f1bee910725a6706de0b078",
@@ -135,9 +135,9 @@
     "med_stake": 308,
     "avg_entry": 0.47,
     "train_n": 259,
-    "fwd_win": 75.7,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.817,
-    "fwd_n": 70
+    "fwd_win": 77.0,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.884,
+    "fwd_n": 74
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0xfc81760d44a21acc9fd4b749a5bf9a9b2eeae072",
@@ -149,9 +149,9 @@
     "med_stake": 80,
     "avg_entry": 0.63,
     "train_n": 183,
-    "fwd_win": 92.6,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.778,
-    "fwd_n": 68
+    "fwd_win": 92.8,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.782,
+    "fwd_n": 69
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0xd7664fe4744856866d3ee36b84ec6e77a7025eb1",
@@ -237,6 +237,20 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": -0.06,
     "fwd_n": 12
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4",
+    "name": "0x8e9eedf2",
+    "train_win": 70.8,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.533,
+    "train_z": 5.11,
+    "z_all": 13.24,
+    "med_stake": 3495,
+    "avg_entry": 0.62,
+    "train_n": 353,
+    "fwd_win": 80.0,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.36,
+    "fwd_n": 130
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x4a9a12ab62660a22b84cb36d1610f4d09abb8297",
     "name": "0x4a9a12ab",
@@ -269,29 +283,15 @@
     "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
     "name": "0xbadaf319",
     "train_win": 77.1,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.45,
-    "train_z": 3.68,
-    "z_all": 4.53,
-    "med_stake": 68,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.454,
+    "train_z": 3.67,
+    "z_all": 4.52,
+    "med_stake": 67,
     "avg_entry": 0.6,
     "train_n": 83,
-    "fwd_win": 79.1,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126,
-    "fwd_n": 316
-  },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4",
-    "name": "0x8e9eedf2",
-    "train_win": 70.9,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.437,
-    "train_z": 4.99,
-    "z_all": 13.36,
-    "med_stake": 3505,
-    "avg_entry": 0.62,
-    "train_n": 350,
-    "fwd_win": 82.0,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.414,
-    "fwd_n": 122
+    "fwd_win": 79.5,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123,
+    "fwd_n": 347
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b",
@@ -331,9 +331,9 @@
     "med_stake": 171,
     "avg_entry": 0.52,
     "train_n": 34,
-    "fwd_win": 62.2,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.187,
-    "fwd_n": 246
+    "fwd_win": 60.8,
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     "name": "0x16abe608",
@@ -1461,13 +1447,13 @@
     "train_win": 75.6,
     "train_conv_roi": 0.016,
     "train_z": 1.88,
-    "z_all": 2.18,
+    "z_all": 2.22,
     "med_stake": 3442,
     "avg_entry": 0.72,
     "train_n": 361,
     "fwd_win": null,
     "fwd_conv_roi": null,
-    "fwd_n": 0
+    "fwd_n": 1
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x83e8723ff456f79445192be823761a4d67517b89",
@@ -1496,19 +1482,5 @@
     "fwd_win": null,
     "fwd_conv_roi": null,
     "fwd_n": 0
-  },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x993c072519306017fe9a6b3ee6fa4a02b3056787",
-    "name": "0x993c0725",
-    "train_win": 65.6,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.007,
-    "train_z": 1.78,
-    "z_all": 2.02,
-    "med_stake": 6032,
-    "avg_entry": 0.58,
-    "train_n": 93,
-    "fwd_win": 63.0,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": -0.081,
-    "fwd_n": 46
   }
 ]

live/copybot_live_real_full.json

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 {
  "mode": "live",
- "updated": 1785012981,
+ "updated": 1785194134,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
-   "realized": -1.26,
-   "n": 25,
-   "wins": 6,
-   "open_cost": 15.58,
-   "open_n": 6,
-   "miss_n": 79,
-   "miss_pnl": 1731.6,
-   "last_ts": 1785011532
+   "realized": -1.02,
+   "n": 26,
+   "wins": 7,
+   "open_cost": 13.33,
+   "open_n": 5,
+   "miss_n": 96,
+   "miss_pnl": 1734.25,
+   "last_ts": 1785104758
   },
   "AIcAIc": {
    "realized": -17.02,
@@ -18,8 +18,8 @@
    "wins": 0,
    "open_cost": 0.0,
    "open_n": 0,
-   "miss_n": 14,
-   "miss_pnl": 3.33,
+   "miss_n": 21,
+   "miss_pnl": 4.33,
    "last_ts": 1784999576
   },
   "(incident)": {
@@ -38,8 +38,8 @@
    "wins": 3,
    "open_cost": 0.0,
    "open_n": 0,
-   "miss_n": 70,
-   "miss_pnl": 14.84,
+   "miss_n": 75,
+   "miss_pnl": 16.0,
    "last_ts": 1784655322
   },
   "1kto1m": {
@@ -58,8 +58,8 @@
    "wins": 1,
    "open_cost": 0.0,
    "open_n": 0,
-   "miss_n": 6,
-   "miss_pnl": -1.71,
+   "miss_n": 0,
+   "miss_pnl": 0.0,
    "last_ts": 1783828844
   },
   "BikesAreTheBikes": {
@@ -78,8 +78,8 @@
    "wins": 0,
    "open_cost": 0.0,
    "open_n": 0,
-   "miss_n": 8,
-   "miss_pnl": 6.78,
+   "miss_n": 9,
+   "miss_pnl": 6.91,
    "last_ts": 1784497466
   },
   "JuiceFarm": {
@@ -88,8 +88,8 @@
    "wins": 0,
    "open_cost": 0.0,
    "open_n": 0,
-   "miss_n": 0,
-   "miss_pnl": 0.0,
+   "miss_n": 4,
+   "miss_pnl": 0.44,
    "last_ts": 1785009025
   },
   "0x41558102": {
@@ -98,8 +98,8 @@
    "wins": 0,
    "open_cost": 0.0,
    "open_n": 0,
-   "miss_n": 14,
-   "miss_pnl": 1.05,
+   "miss_n": 20,
+   "miss_pnl": -0.66,
    "last_ts": 0
   },
   "0xd96750bf": {
@@ -114,6 +114,26 @@
   }
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "81971570430631246702272897060581472251947225950350133003310719122599499176971",
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be >7 minutes?",
+   "their_price": 0.9,
+   "my_price": 0.9,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+   "lag_s": 1.7,
+   "shares": 2.5,
+   "cost": 2.25,
+   "fee": 0.0067,
+   "opened": 1784990098,
+   "status": "won",
+   "exit_price": 1.0,
+   "pnl": 0.24,
+   "settled": 1785104758,
+   "end_ts": 1785024000
+  },
   {
    "token": "8520939197524385894693978702254214426383751437032693433763418213436851058226",
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -216,26 +236,6 @@
    "settled": 1784991381,
    "end_ts": 1784937600
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-  {
-   "token": "81971570430631246702272897060581472251947225950350133003310719122599499176971",
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "title": "Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be >7 minutes?",
-   "their_price": 0.9,
-   "my_price": 0.9,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
-   "lag_s": 1.7,
-   "shares": 2.5,
-   "cost": 2.25,
-   "fee": 0.0067,
-   "opened": 1784990098,
-   "status": "open",
-   "exit_price": null,
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "end_ts": 1785024000
-  },
   {
    "token": "24538227191540742319290192357327280598675171199196475574105878696409564463051",
    "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
@@ -2531,8 +2531,8 @@
    "exit_price": null,
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null,
-   "sold_shares": 0.55,
-   "sold_proceeds": 0.51689595,
+   "sold_shares": 0.8,
+   "sold_proceeds": 0.7573787175,
    "end_ts": 1809043200
   },
   {
@@ -2822,10 +2822,577 @@
    "exit_price": null,
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null,
-   "end_ts": 1798761600
+   "end_ts": 1798761600,
+   "sold_shares": 5.17,
+   "sold_proceeds": 4.7980029900000005
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785102626,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "11175144790294018473883407522370233749764592141943374533997532765754332298932",
+   "cond": "0x1a53f4e1df8653751aa2865bdf33129c9fba1b51a6ba3a4397c330894265f3fb",
+   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "Down",
+   "price": 0.82,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.994",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.12,
+   "settled": 1785194132,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9243
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785192499,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "80566427864683264408132975495806825930535536706191596908698304900201437338755",
+   "cond": "0xfcaddf3ef2d9f976e0c9673ed54c380bdc3338d02ab0fa8aa7f22960f594e964",
+   "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on July 28?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.65,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xa2d10630247477eb272c5a0ed40a7d8a82f013468",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.34,
+   "settled": 1785192769,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.88
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785191856,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489",
+   "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5",
+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.55,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "price moved 0.47\u21920.55",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785191856,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
+   "cond": "0x7f0d84b155c484b801f2cba68eb0f9ef8b2a0a54b7e6bb0fa53a1778964f53fd",
+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.39,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.996",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785130838,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "79670417518965340166637380137891741750752210241055933511013597289989925437928",
+   "cond": "0xe682172dec68535c41b59d24d80803f4522b6ec3bcd6a7343d32c0a720bfec53",
+   "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "Up",
+   "price": 0.89,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.999",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": -0.03,
+   "settled": 1785184789,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.8669
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785182494,
+   "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
+   "token": "115289753838857732506008126031819274849142757215567510934288229988887639669500",
+   "cond": "0xb4b758f84d9c2acd555dfe98b2ce9b817ef3935a955688254545d290f5d5baa4",
+   "title": "Fritz vs. Bergs: Match O/U 22.5",
+   "outcome": "Under",
+   "price": 0.61,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xe91744d4b0b591902a6b4e052905ed05e6e56d512",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.13,
+   "settled": 1785182797,
+   "name": "Kruto2027",
+   "exit_price": 0.7
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785166433,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286",
+   "cond": "0x5e0190c0160f075a95fd5034b1d97d2245ef0c1ccb725fcbbadfc54db2ac8028",
+   "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.74,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xdeb8c90090edaa13a833d8e808b20f321941b5741",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.26,
+   "settled": 1785176778,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9363
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139619,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
+   "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
+   "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.77,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xb23969cb2a9cd69d6a772789997b02201afd4881f",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.29,
+   "settled": 1785172789,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
+   "exit_price": 1.0
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785162758,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "65075316665858123310904205342608300814898488753088658332913116406808619343398",
+   "cond": "0x6899f21b3a3d26c8ae9d0332c25d160fc08b9c3b834f0d8fe116d2ec87905dc9",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $130 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.5463,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785111590,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228",
+   "cond": "0x1b158a9177d2b8cb17144844069b93753c2578ace89a07d06fe1872c86ff8e90",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.44,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.995",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.82,
+   "settled": 1785160792,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.8122
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785126941,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "74119673575030259137547668301986785745647371043511033522238877972140940630607",
+   "cond": "0x40ef6ee7a563f8d48f60ad06cd27e175b070a5e2d48df2c42bc4f62091dcdd42",
+   "title": "Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.7487,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "won",
+   "pnl": 0.33,
+   "settled": 1785160321,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_checked": true
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139495,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "5093836280630653877561190382016580808144147177143767913302616853585042535941",
+   "cond": "0xd58aa21e48555a4f12eaf634bf513b10d00e380c365a13d90d725d774f5efd23",
+   "title": "LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.87,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.994",
+   "status": "won",
+   "pnl": 0.15,
+   "settled": 1785153399,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
+   "exit_checked": true
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785145522,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "109560195847127443718098720993839508458395767835235641294925271566812897320563",
+   "cond": "0xcdf022c2b67b00eeb6325e4f2e7471cc6db10f907185b12f0a1d5f41b5f64b11",
+   "title": "LoL: Solary vs Esprit Sh\u014dnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season",
+   "outcome": "Solary",
+   "price": 0.88,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0x3c811b9bf6510a7c361b4fab91abf5cd065a955b0",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785145428,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "44947152591637181972300049650785829928165871645008039071331001566404599378498",
+   "cond": "0x26df9caa9bf1d7d5a3454ba68aebc046a48e25b65e1c70c972268c20fa7c8ec2",
+   "title": "LoL: Solary vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season",
+   "outcome": "Solary",
+   "price": 0.8,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: price must conform to tick size 0.01 with at most",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1784824895,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "78639892723644623147617890032845605442018473848411325154446303980329931711515",
+   "cond": "0xe9ab976f5c3b9c65ea229b1a7890ba92da55c06a8c5dfe6c911320d5ecfa6a9f",
+   "title": "Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in July?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.887,
+   "stake": 2.52,
+   "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): exception: no orders found to match with FAK order. FAK orde",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.18,
+   "settled": 1785144823,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9537
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785127066,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "52897893276285627510690194142963884799788689807458708980439810896103687693971",
+   "cond": "0x0cabaf08be1954680599a1cc5d3f715558d8880b6bcb819d2e32ca404c400b35",
+   "title": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.89,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf39bb935be7758beecfda001d2c312f3bc218be4f",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.11,
+   "settled": 1785130889,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9873
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785128918,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45008911945219735557521805884729456911272112830419157569734797577265875509979",
+   "cond": "0x44a785ee8973526fd587f902739da9579f29b2326a77d0f2040e480ecc6263c7",
+   "title": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.5548,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785103318,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "73772414999817992515088687755193145487336993356690533986692595350122387340288",
+   "cond": "0x0cc87d69aedb41c2960de6c155f9b444241c9d7d375214c70b14a3262b010846",
+   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.92,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xfad089f06ed65e22afbfd8dffffae8ce34b36df34",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.06,
+   "settled": 1785117130,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9762
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785113978,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "87696708406779453134902801895465089795764350419182531911213489596972812010552",
+   "cond": "0x726f8c733ea83c15eb7bf25eca3fb324440c78a49fd2e233138214c69cdb46f0",
+   "title": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.67,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf215688810e41d482a5d17e580dea6a7ece262957",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
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+  {
+   "ts": 1785009018,
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+   "token": "3901986631446153023403890805451260510191347162609117497694534689649201812603",
+   "cond": "0x6d440b85cbe22665a737fa92e1d698aebae32754d627e8f4214b5e258de7b05d",
+   "title": "Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.723,
+   "stake": 2.02,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.46,
+   "settled": 1785113169,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.895
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785110815,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
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+   "cond": "0xceb1b54f8e0fa8fb4d240b042505ec7681715758a89f82b3e356a003094c8438",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.67,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "thin book ($21 within 5c < $50)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
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+  {
+   "ts": 1785110779,
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+   "token": "35886998552783861513685353913940426093865851929878480433719442414123918040441",
+   "cond": "0x61eb75dae104f136d5946682f241c554f6282f81a4489285d134170526be41e0",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.49,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "thin book ($7 within 5c < $50)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
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+  {
+   "ts": 1785097442,
+   "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+   "token": "38653928625312634500254748884896709523765538580393484335273651251587581768973",
+   "cond": "0x669ccff5b823276fa737b2588aced3d00ddb278c291fbff05bf4aa3ca012fb3f",
+   "title": "LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner",
+   "outcome": "Team Liquid",
+   "price": 0.61,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xfd2edcb47353811b58b12a59359af74fe0b3e0de2",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.63,
+   "settled": 1785101374,
+   "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
+   "exit_price": 0.999
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785085571,
+   "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+   "token": "101153729343818198854460643430791650575892746410722572933584859093710282528569",
+   "cond": "0x08a53f69944788b6c5fc6907e98e71fac00952c2cacfc588edaa35496fb29527",
+   "title": "Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise - Game 2 Winner",
+   "outcome": "KW",
+   "price": 0.5041,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.25,
+   "settled": 1785087553,
+   "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
+   "exit_price": 0.6465
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785080091,
+   "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+   "token": "98557002898950649707610758478512958595262755016561795127783281070673537274115",
+   "cond": "0x904d962699c97f6e7be08a16b505ae8dd59dedd8818f848c7da59d48bf4bb47a",
+   "title": "Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise - Game 1 Winner",
+   "outcome": "RE.Arise",
+   "price": 0.62,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.998",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.31,
+   "settled": 1785081620,
+   "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
+   "exit_price": 0.8235
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785068257,
+   "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+   "token": "38870680360291703970571093973856484238741940564373297411198274857317071595974",
+   "cond": "0x849fbccbb748690f5e8775dbd4c6806714bcb87e161de4c7c0877f462d4e835b",
+   "title": "LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner",
+   "outcome": "Deep Cross Gaming",
+   "price": 0.5661,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time",
+   "status": "lost",
+   "pnl": -1.01,
+   "settled": 1785080292,
+   "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
+   "exit_checked": true
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785078294,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "54620342958738283704802452250340372295186538019357418907215676271029676157053",
+   "cond": "0x7751647558c676e670214b1161ba938c16417b09c7b577310ad80652d70066c1",
+   "title": "Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.5,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0x4c85689567f50b5654feb2d052fd5f24d16100747",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785072243,
+   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+   "token": "113359571003047396767826426301838860151873706137356935468347609290162612073776",
+   "cond": "0x0b1cbc36ef6e5b8616ab4b64e0fc050343a2e8322a1d3002ef68ee61fdaeeef5",
+   "title": "LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend",
+   "outcome": "Bilibili Gaming",
+   "price": 0.51,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.998",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.27,
+   "settled": 1785075740,
+   "name": "AIcAIc",
+   "exit_price": 0.6642
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785069395,
+   "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+   "token": "3632761527830851126218403972215896322866498280718052589856316229871893863849",
+   "cond": "0x6c433c24fb3c1f54e74a3a016eaf7820f8b6d18486e04d0ba7ad515085cdecf0",
+   "title": "LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner",
+   "outcome": "Anyone's Legend",
+   "price": 0.5,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.98,
+   "settled": 1785073777,
+   "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
+   "exit_price": 0.999
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785068199,
+   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+   "token": "70779665945520640638060284527025322569040195676030813411312036650498709891533",
+   "cond": "0x6c433c24fb3c1f54e74a3a016eaf7820f8b6d18486e04d0ba7ad515085cdecf0",
+   "title": "LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner",
+   "outcome": "Bilibili Gaming",
+   "price": 0.55,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": -0.83,
+   "settled": 1785073776,
+   "name": "AIcAIc",
+   "exit_price": 0.1012
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785067055,
+   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+   "token": "51653736840206909477127809769417338510771268257928893059964060309325560583787",
+   "cond": "0xeb31fb61257a0d23cae612629fecf7f454153f6e3cd2712e8415177b214d4601",
+   "title": "LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner",
+   "outcome": "Bilibili Gaming",
+   "price": 0.81,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xb2bab9797849292afd7ad285ab4a23673463c0e2b",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.22,
+   "settled": 1785069874,
+   "name": "AIcAIc",
+   "exit_price": 0.99
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785065613,
+   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+   "token": "106906185790690167849895063392041009115494273917041294569591008180490173521485",
+   "cond": "0xeb31fb61257a0d23cae612629fecf7f454153f6e3cd2712e8415177b214d4601",
+   "title": "LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner",
+   "outcome": "Anyone's Legend",
+   "price": 0.43,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.998",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": -0.61,
+   "settled": 1785067926,
+   "name": "AIcAIc",
+   "exit_price": 0.18
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785059589,
+   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+   "token": "89340901248495209887282475621636749099978593982836424634713915099029001879979",
+   "cond": "0x074950031f61621075f900096a3a667a0dfe233d175e841b9f9b483cca3328b7",
+   "title": "LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner",
+   "outcome": "ThunderTalk Gaming",
+   "price": 0.52,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.996",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.75,
+   "settled": 1785063991,
+   "name": "AIcAIc",
+   "exit_price": 0.9221
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785057797,
+   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+   "token": "9813729238721622440295199072182483266069584287294397729904340441074427123910",
+   "cond": "0x429f11968ea12d2f528bff9ce14d601fe160aa8e84ad78e6b33ce894bfe7ca29",
+   "title": "LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner",
+   "outcome": "ThunderTalk Gaming",
+   "price": 0.62,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.996",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.52,
+   "settled": 1785060049,
+   "name": "AIcAIc",
+   "exit_price": 0.95
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785059815,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "91266914832076152890178245367327746643886105568273548856344063538633019008684",
+   "cond": "0xfe395db7923c74606153cd29c07c46c2e4421f57983408965937dacf02aa062d",
+   "title": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.813,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.994",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785051229,
+   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+   "token": "9750443237218684936401351443214131681943461238354594128478044162692102765046",
+   "cond": "0xdcc7f905b2c9bdd332ebf271030ccc8376a7014f0c0a4cde0d00772cf0618596",
+   "title": "LoL: LNG Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner",
+   "outcome": "Ninjas in Pyjamas",
+   "price": 0.56,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.997",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.68,
+   "settled": 1785056101,
+   "name": "AIcAIc",
+   "exit_price": 0.95
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1783908976,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2920,21 +3487,6 @@
    "settled": null,
    "name": "0xbadaf319"
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785009018,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "3901986631446153023403890805451260510191347162609117497694534689649201812603",
-   "cond": "0x6d440b85cbe22665a737fa92e1d698aebae32754d627e8f4214b5e258de7b05d",
-   "title": "Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.723,
-   "stake": 2.02,
-   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785009018,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -3394,21 +3946,6 @@
    "name": "Kruto2027",
    "exit_checked": true
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784824895,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "78639892723644623147617890032845605442018473848411325154446303980329931711515",
-   "cond": "0xe9ab976f5c3b9c65ea229b1a7890ba92da55c06a8c5dfe6c911320d5ecfa6a9f",
-   "title": "Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in July?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.887,
-   "stake": 2.52,
-   "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): exception: no orders found to match with FAK order. FAK orde",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1784818262,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -5583,7 +6120,7 @@
    "status": "sold",
    "pnl": 0.0,
    "settled": 1783899291,
-   "name": "LSB1",
+   "name": "0x41558102",
    "exit_price": 1.0
   },
   {
@@ -5599,7 +6136,7 @@
    "status": "lost",
    "pnl": -1.01,
    "settled": 1783898972,
-   "name": "LSB1",
+   "name": "0x41558102",
    "exit_checked": true
   },
   {
@@ -5694,7 +6231,7 @@
    "status": "lost",
    "pnl": -1.01,
    "settled": 1783867047,
-   "name": "LSB1",
+   "name": "0x41558102",
    "exit_checked": true
   },
   {
@@ -5902,7 +6439,7 @@
    "status": "sold",
    "pnl": 0.17,
    "settled": 1783828849,
-   "name": "LSB1",
+   "name": "0x41558102",
    "exit_price": 1.0
   },
   {
@@ -5918,7 +6455,7 @@
    "status": "sold",
    "pnl": -0.48,
    "settled": 1783828831,
-   "name": "LSB1",
+   "name": "0x41558102",
    "exit_checked": true,
    "exit_price": 0.3899
   },
@@ -5935,7 +6472,7 @@
    "status": "won",
    "pnl": 0.62,
    "settled": 1783828831,
-   "name": "LSB1",
+   "name": "0x41558102",
    "exit_checked": true
   },
   {

live/watch_skilled.json

@@ -2,11 +2,11 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xf419556a9758214628edff29dce8f39a8aa13ce7",
     "name": "2j289uUmAio7ap245975",
-    "weight": 0.0549,
+    "weight": 0.0612,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 17.91,
-    "z_oos": 9.49,
-    "n": 2085,
+    "z": 17.93,
+    "z_oos": 9.44,
+    "n": 2081,
     "win_rate": 69.9,
     "avg_entry": 0.51,
     "band_0204": 0.13
@@ -14,19 +14,19 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4",
     "name": "Siziriv",
-    "weight": 0.0456,
+    "weight": 0.0501,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 14.89,
-    "z_oos": 7.6,
-    "n": 2441,
-    "win_rate": 50.6,
+    "z": 14.69,
+    "z_oos": 7.47,
+    "n": 2460,
+    "win_rate": 50.8,
     "avg_entry": 0.44,
-    "band_0204": 0.02
+    "band_0204": 0.03
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x2257901897e83d39e778fa86d568dc1cd9a2dca2",
     "name": "iuii899889",
-    "weight": 0.0306,
+    "weight": 0.0341,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 9.99,
     "z_oos": 6.55,
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xda24f0caf5766fc36df8ac2f6ae3a567b71a9f1f",
     "name": "Thewinwin",
-    "weight": 0.0281,
+    "weight": 0.0313,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 9.18,
     "z_oos": 6.84,
@@ -50,7 +50,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x14d2bf01e3e7bac9b1799265db3c7d8a993dfa3e",
     "name": "8998yueyye",
-    "weight": 0.0279,
+    "weight": 0.0311,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 9.12,
     "z_oos": 5.97,
@@ -62,55 +62,55 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xf508f2dde64316531b4eab2f0956636b9dd63a0e",
     "name": "0xf508f2dd\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.026,
+    "weight": 0.0301,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 8.5,
-    "z_oos": 5.94,
-    "n": 2045,
-    "win_rate": 21.9,
-    "avg_entry": 0.16,
-    "band_0204": 0.24
+    "z": 8.81,
+    "z_oos": 5.28,
+    "n": 2390,
+    "win_rate": 20.7,
+    "avg_entry": 0.15,
+    "band_0204": 0.23
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0xf1a437dc0ac31303fbc288d1b1dbaf7e7f4c9779",
     "name": "0xd0C09b7e25f88eFfde2",
-    "weight": 0.0251,
+    "weight": 0.0286,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 8.2,
-    "z_oos": 6.41,
-    "n": 2221,
-    "win_rate": 36.7,
+    "z": 8.37,
+    "z_oos": 6.64,
+    "n": 2240,
+    "win_rate": 37.1,
     "avg_entry": 0.3,
     "band_0204": 0.25
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x2f633efb75256a2f2445110c8978684ab8936643",
-    "name": "AI.AGENT.2026",
-    "weight": 0.0247,
-    "tier": "validated",
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-    "z_oos": 4.46,
-    "n": 652,
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-    "avg_entry": 0.83,
-    "band_0204": 0.05
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   {
     "wallet": "0x1b44945f8992fcea2b43034557e47d11827fd8de",
     "name": "BrickThrower",
-    "weight": 0.0237,
+    "weight": 0.0277,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 7.74,
-    "z_oos": 5.58,
-    "n": 2362,
+    "z": 8.11,
+    "z_oos": 5.96,
+    "n": 2456,
     "win_rate": 44.3,
     "avg_entry": 0.38,
     "band_0204": 0.24
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x47946decc4e4aafee23df84d6bf1a4b3c6c2ba33",
+    "name": "0x47946Decc4e4AAFee23df84D6Bf1A4B3C6c2ba33-1783372491387",
+    "weight": 0.0273,
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@@ -410,7 +374,7 @@
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@@ -422,7 +386,7 @@
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@@ -431,22 +395,10 @@
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@@ -455,22 +407,10 @@
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@@ -482,19 +422,31 @@
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@@ -506,7 +458,7 @@
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@@ -518,7 +470,7 @@
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@@ -527,46 +479,10 @@
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     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.6,
     "z_oos": 1.88,
@@ -575,10 +491,22 @@
     "avg_entry": 0.45,
     "band_0204": 0.22
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x6d5922a5c641890fad61d810ce09b6c9f066b1b3",
+    "name": "dror-768",
+    "weight": 0.0116,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 3.41,
+    "z_oos": 1.42,
+    "n": 553,
+    "win_rate": 26.6,
+    "avg_entry": 0.21,
+    "band_0204": 0.31
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0xc265ab3fad6092a5a28cbb72bdef33e6eaced5ab",
     "name": "0xc265ab3f\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.0102,
+    "weight": 0.0114,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.34,
     "z_oos": 2.06,
@@ -587,10 +515,22 @@
     "avg_entry": 0.98,
     "band_0204": 0.0
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x52e9ddafda7ae033b1dd4553c7acdb9b3effb5cd",
+    "name": "muUren",
+    "weight": 0.0113,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 3.31,
+    "z_oos": 2.15,
+    "n": 2352,
+    "win_rate": 53.0,
+    "avg_entry": 0.5,
+    "band_0204": 0.22
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0xe75b11fa4fa01db5f11743e5f40df6c23b8e97eb",
     "name": "sleepyzs",
-    "weight": 0.0101,
+    "weight": 0.0113,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.3,
     "z_oos": 1.46,
@@ -602,7 +542,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x6d3c9fe9cb9a7e006c99b13bdd0451ab5059c74a",
     "name": "0x6D3C9fE9CB9A7e006C99b13bDd0451aB5059C74a-1775205794013",
-    "weight": 0.0101,
+    "weight": 0.0113,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.3,
     "z_oos": 0.22,
@@ -612,57 +552,21 @@
     "band_0204": 0.4
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x46b2f8a865a3572a435813e747e22cce0e835977",
-    "name": "quantssss",
-    "weight": 0.0101,
-    "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.29,
-    "z_oos": 2.37,
-    "n": 2007,
-    "win_rate": 49.2,
-    "avg_entry": 0.46,
-    "band_0204": 0.39
-  },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x536be02af900fe046fa708c8059c04f737a2cee3",
-    "name": "fill-or-fok-me",
-    "weight": 0.01,
+    "wallet": "0x3db61e79ee7afbd4ed101a9fc497c05f679acb34",
+    "name": "0x3db61e79\u2026",
+    "weight": 0.0112,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.28,
-    "z_oos": 2.24,
-    "n": 2017,
-    "win_rate": 48.3,
-    "avg_entry": 0.45,
-    "band_0204": 0.34
-  },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x97026acc2fcbfc70420f3792ba612e5abb67ca89",
-    "name": "SERINAITE",
-    "weight": 0.01,
-    "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.26,
-    "z_oos": 2.8,
-    "n": 1713,
-    "win_rate": 37.5,
-    "avg_entry": 0.34,
-    "band_0204": 0.44
-  },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x4f7d834c2292157e8c1c34653a60dff3cd8ab3ff",
-    "name": "52463434",
-    "weight": 0.0099,
-    "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.23,
-    "z_oos": 1.06,
-    "n": 1104,
-    "win_rate": 40.2,
-    "avg_entry": 0.36,
-    "band_0204": 0.21
+    "z_oos": 2.93,
+    "n": 1854,
+    "win_rate": 59.7,
+    "avg_entry": 0.56,
+    "band_0204": 0.13
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x9807ef11efccde6399f6e2fa410de357092192f4",
     "name": "0x9807ef11\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.0099,
+    "weight": 0.011,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.22,
     "z_oos": 2.09,
@@ -674,67 +578,79 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x25d8c73a5ebeb6db934d8da68592ba3d4f1ca71f",
     "name": "none910",
-    "weight": 0.0098,
+    "weight": 0.0109,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.21,
-    "z_oos": 2.53,
-    "n": 1495,
-    "win_rate": 47.8,
-    "avg_entry": 0.45,
+    "z": 3.2,
+    "z_oos": 2.45,
+    "n": 1502,
+    "win_rate": 47.5,
+    "avg_entry": 0.44,
     "band_0204": 0.09
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0xec1e4ae315d80985ad25b2f6fe4dfc2941310d9c",
-    "name": "samoel97",
-    "weight": 0.0097,
-    "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.18,
-    "z_oos": 3.32,
-    "n": 544,
-    "win_rate": 78.1,
-    "avg_entry": 0.75,
-    "band_0204": 0.04
-  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x90347085ff4edd5d6305eea5746d239784b0f7df",
     "name": "7887",
-    "weight": 0.0097,
+    "weight": 0.0108,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.16,
-    "z_oos": 1.99,
-    "n": 2371,
+    "z": 3.15,
+    "z_oos": 2.04,
+    "n": 2370,
     "win_rate": 42.1,
     "avg_entry": 0.4,
     "band_0204": 0.18
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x52e9ddafda7ae033b1dd4553c7acdb9b3effb5cd",
-    "name": "muUren",
-    "weight": 0.0097,
+    "wallet": "0xec1e4ae315d80985ad25b2f6fe4dfc2941310d9c",
+    "name": "samoel97",
+    "weight": 0.0107,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.16,
-    "z_oos": 2.23,
-    "n": 2206,
-    "win_rate": 52.9,
-    "avg_entry": 0.5,
-    "band_0204": 0.22
+    "z": 3.14,
+    "z_oos": 3.37,
+    "n": 680,
+    "win_rate": 75.1,
+    "avg_entry": 0.72,
+    "band_0204": 0.04
+  },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x4f7d834c2292157e8c1c34653a60dff3cd8ab3ff",
+    "name": "52463434",
+    "weight": 0.0107,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 3.13,
+    "z_oos": 0.94,
+    "n": 1101,
+    "win_rate": 40.1,
+    "avg_entry": 0.36,
+    "band_0204": 0.21
+  },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x97026acc2fcbfc70420f3792ba612e5abb67ca89",
+    "name": "SERINAITE",
+    "weight": 0.0106,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 3.12,
+    "z_oos": 2.6,
+    "n": 1958,
+    "win_rate": 36.2,
+    "avg_entry": 0.33,
+    "band_0204": 0.44
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x40cc3feb8acaab0aa7fbd5dc7e2eb5f2f8fc1be7",
     "name": "Ariyeh",
-    "weight": 0.0093,
+    "weight": 0.0104,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.03,
-    "z_oos": 3.9,
-    "n": 820,
-    "win_rate": 32.4,
+    "z": 3.05,
+    "z_oos": 4.04,
+    "n": 830,
+    "win_rate": 32.3,
     "avg_entry": 0.28,
     "band_0204": 0.29
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x55154a54cd74db752540dcd663a30cdb5c00eb8b",
     "name": "AK47ForLIFE",
-    "weight": 0.0089,
+    "weight": 0.0099,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 2.89,
     "z_oos": 2.74,
@@ -742,17 +658,5 @@
     "win_rate": 41.5,
     "avg_entry": 0.38,
     "band_0204": 0.35
-  },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x1d949489f736378cbde40db18c093c5cff459100",
-    "name": "BullishBarb",
-    "weight": 0.0087,
-    "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 2.83,
-    "z_oos": 1.31,
-    "n": 2107,
-    "win_rate": 53.4,
-    "avg_entry": 0.51,
-    "band_0204": 0.25
   }
 ]

recorder/sync_tape.py

@@ -132,6 +132,7 @@ def main():
         return 0
     have = {r[0] for r in con.execute("SELECT segment FROM ingested").fetchall()}
     got = 0
+    pending_acks = []
     for d in new:
         rel, seg = d["path"], d["segment"]
         dst = os.path.join(MIRROR, rel)
@@ -171,9 +172,29 @@ def main():
             con.execute("COMMIT")
         with open(LOCAL_MANIFEST, "a") as fh:
             fh.write(json.dumps(d) + "\n")
-        box(f"touch {PQ}/acks/{os.path.basename(rel)}.ok")
+        # ACK IS DEFERRED AND NON-FATAL (2026-07-27): one ssh round-trip per
+        # file rides WireGuard, which travel networks throttle to the point
+        # of timing out — and a raised TimeoutExpired used to kill the whole
+        # sync mid-backlog (52 files in, 12 to go). The invariant is
+        # one-directional: the box may delete ONLY what the Mac acked, so a
+        # MISSING ack is always safe (box keeps the file; 25GB ≈ 3+ weeks).
+        # Batch them at the end, best-effort.
+        pending_acks.append(os.path.basename(rel))
         got += 1
-        print(f"[sync] {rel}: {n} rows -> db + mirror + ack")
+        print(f"[sync] {rel}: {n} rows -> db + mirror (ack queued)")
+    # batched ack: ONE ssh round-trip for the whole run (was one per file).
+    # Never fatal — unacked files simply wait for a healthier network; the
+    # next run re-acks them (touch is idempotent, and `have` keeps the DB
+    # from re-ingesting).
+    if pending_acks:
+        try:
+            box("touch " + " ".join(f"{PQ}/acks/{a}.ok"
+                                    for a in pending_acks), timeout=180)
+            print(f"[sync] acked {len(pending_acks)} file(s) in one call")
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"[sync] ⚠ ack deferred ({type(e).__name__}) — box keeps "
+                  f"{len(pending_acks)} file(s) until a healthier run; "
+                  f"data already in db + mirror")
     n, = con.execute("SELECT count(*) FROM trades").fetchone()
     print(f"[sync] +{got}/{len(new)} files · rtds.duckdb now {n:,} trades")
     return 0

research/README.md

@@ -25,6 +25,21 @@ anything on the live bot"):
 - **Every study gets one instrument that does not share the scorer's
   assumptions** — the surge paper harness (chain-graded from day one) is
   what caught the bug. Divergence between instruments is signal, not noise.
+- **DEFINITION LAW (2026-07-28, from #26): a tape scorer and its harness
+  must be shown to name the SAME EVENTS before any tape verdict is
+  trusted.** Study C scored +$2.17/lean on tape and −$2.26/fill at a real
+  book with entry price ruled out (median ask premium +1c, 72% fill).
+  The crossing diagnostic (lean_crossing_diag.py) found only 51% of the
+  harness's attempts had a matching tape crossing, and 84% of the tape's
+  crossings were invisible to a live bot — the two were measuring
+  different signals under one name. Exposure comes from triggers that
+  depend on RECONSTRUCTED STATE (running inventory, rolling windows,
+  cumulative flow): the scorer sees a whole day, the bot sees from boot.
+  Point-in-time triggers (one print, one burst) are not exposed, which is
+  why Study D's harness matched its Stage-1 definition and C's did not.
+  For any state-dependent trigger the crossing diagnostic — not the P&L —
+  is the FIRST check, and a harness should warm-start its state from tape
+  rather than from zero.
 - **DATA LAW (2026-07-22): tests are additive, never subtractive.** Raw
   streams (tape, attempts, markouts, settles, meta snapshots) are
   append-only; analysis opens them read-only; no script rewrites or

research/copy_reconcile.py

@@ -106,7 +106,20 @@ def main():
             and b.get("entry_t", 0) >= fs.get(nm2w.get(b["name"], ""), 0)]
     print(f"backtest bets in the parity era with join keys "
           f"(follow-since applied): {len(bets)}", flush=True)
-    db = tape.connect()
+    # rtds.duckdb is single-writer and the 15-min tape-sync agent holds it in
+    # bursts; the daily's reconcile step used to die outright on the
+    # collision (2026-07-27). Wait it out — the sync finishes in seconds.
+    for _try in range(20):
+        try:
+            db = tape.connect()
+            break
+        except Exception as e:
+            if "lock" not in str(e).lower() or _try == 19:
+                raise
+            if _try == 0:
+                print("[reconcile] tape locked by the sync agent — waiting…",
+                      flush=True)
+            time.sleep(30)
     tape.build_resolved(db)
     pays = fwd.payouts_for(db, [b["asset"] for b in bets])
     v = bot_views()

research/forward_ledger.jsonl

@@ -52,3 +52,51 @@
 {"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-23", "computed_at": "2026-07-23 14:45 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 1409, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 255, "misses": 1062, "pending": 91, "refunds": 1, "pnl": 3180.23, "wins": 156, "ev_per_fill": 12.47, "hit": 0.612}, "worst": {"fills": 255, "misses": 1062, "pending": 91, "refunds": 1, "pnl": 3019.2, "wins": 156, "ev_per_fill": 11.84, "hit": 0.612}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 4, "pnl": 268.07}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 24, "pnl": 145.92}]}
 {"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-23", "computed_at": "2026-07-23 14:45 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 5213, "fills": 949, "pending": 11, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -5834.45, "wins": 439, "ev_per_fill": -6.15, "hit": 0.463}, "0.07": {"events": 3239, "fills": 414, "pending": 7, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1225.54, "wins": 192, "ev_per_fill": -2.96, "hit": 0.464}, "0.1": {"events": 2280, "fills": 221, "pending": 5, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -2241.27, "wins": 99, "ev_per_fill": -10.14, "hit": 0.448}}
 {"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-23", "computed_at": "2026-07-23 14:45 UTC", "triggers": 32, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 7, "misses": 25, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 11279.0, "wins": 2, "ev_per_fill": 1611.29, "hit": 0.286}, "worst": {"fills": 7, "misses": 25, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 4612.33, "wins": 2, "ev_per_fill": 658.9, "hit": 0.286}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 1, "pnl": -103.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-22", "computed_at": "2026-07-24 18:37 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 3015, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 790, "misses": 2216, "pending": 2, "refunds": 7, "pnl": -7304.17, "wins": 408, "ev_per_fill": -9.25, "hit": 0.516}, "worst": {"fills": 790, "misses": 2216, "pending": 2, "refunds": 7, "pnl": -7522.01, "wins": 408, "ev_per_fill": -9.52, "hit": 0.516}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 5, "pnl": 110.35}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 14, "pnl": 270.22}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 55, "pnl": -425.46}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-22", "computed_at": "2026-07-24 18:37 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 8535, "fills": 1535, "pending": 67, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -11638.66, "wins": 731, "ev_per_fill": -7.58, "hit": 0.476}, "0.07": {"events": 4998, "fills": 621, "pending": 23, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -3085.64, "wins": 297, "ev_per_fill": -4.97, "hit": 0.478}, "0.1": {"events": 3516, "fills": 336, "pending": 12, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1108.29, "wins": 167, "ev_per_fill": -3.3, "hit": 0.497}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-22", "computed_at": "2026-07-24 18:37 UTC", "triggers": 44, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 16, "misses": 28, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 3352.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 209.5, "hit": 0.062}, "worst": {"fills": 16, "misses": 28, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 3352.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 209.5, "hit": 0.062}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 2, "pnl": -206.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-22", "computed_at": "2026-07-24 18:37 UTC", "screened": 274, "leans": 4314, "follow_small": {"n": 3052, "pending": 395, "pnl": 3877.5, "ev_per_lean": 1.27, "hit": 0.566}, "mid_report": {"n": 566, "pending": 87, "pnl": 1535.08, "ev_per_lean": 2.71, "hit": 0.558}, "fade_whale": {"n": 179, "pending": 15, "pnl": -698.81, "ev_per_lean": -3.9, "hit": 0.391}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-23", "computed_at": "2026-07-24 18:37 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 3154, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 586, "misses": 2378, "pending": 188, "refunds": 2, "pnl": 16663.34, "wins": 401, "ev_per_fill": 28.44, "hit": 0.684}, "worst": {"fills": 586, "misses": 2378, "pending": 188, "refunds": 2, "pnl": 16102.13, "wins": 401, "ev_per_fill": 27.48, "hit": 0.684}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 4, "pnl": 324.86}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 6, "pnl": 209.65}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 31, "pnl": 1015.43}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-23", "computed_at": "2026-07-24 18:37 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 8714, "fills": 1183, "pending": 425, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -6283.5, "wins": 559, "ev_per_fill": -5.31, "hit": 0.473}, "0.07": {"events": 5274, "fills": 506, "pending": 156, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -2253.11, "wins": 235, "ev_per_fill": -4.45, "hit": 0.464}, "0.1": {"events": 3661, "fills": 274, "pending": 80, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -3481.9, "wins": 122, "ev_per_fill": -12.71, "hit": 0.445}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-23", "computed_at": "2026-07-24 18:37 UTC", "triggers": 68, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 11, "misses": 48, "pending": 9, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 10867.0, "wins": 2, "ev_per_fill": 987.91, "hit": 0.182}, "worst": {"fills": 11, "misses": 48, "pending": 9, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 4200.33, "wins": 2, "ev_per_fill": 381.85, "hit": 0.182}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 1, "pnl": -103.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-23", "computed_at": "2026-07-24 18:37 UTC", "screened": 552, "leans": 7191, "follow_small": {"n": 2548, "pending": 3193, "pnl": 13667.09, "ev_per_lean": 5.36, "hit": 0.595}, "mid_report": {"n": 579, "pending": 574, "pnl": 1767.3, "ev_per_lean": 3.05, "hit": 0.629}, "fade_whale": {"n": 154, "pending": 123, "pnl": 3709.09, "ev_per_lean": 24.08, "hit": 0.416}}
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+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-27", "computed_at": "2026-07-28 17:48 UTC", "triggers": 28, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 12, "misses": 15, "pending": 1, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 764.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 63.67, "hit": 0.083}, "worst": {"fills": 12, "misses": 15, "pending": 1, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 764.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 63.67, "hit": 0.083}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-27", "computed_at": "2026-07-28 17:48 UTC", "screened": 1535, "leans": 5565, "follow_small": {"n": 3538, "pending": 720, "pnl": 6066.74, "ev_per_lean": 1.71, "hit": 0.583}, "mid_report": {"n": 773, "pending": 177, "pnl": 2510.12, "ev_per_lean": 3.25, "hit": 0.59}, "fade_whale": {"n": 241, "pending": 55, "pnl": -682.8, "ev_per_lean": -2.83, "hit": 0.411}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-28", "computed_at": "2026-07-28 17:48 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 1562, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 350, "misses": 1149, "pending": 59, "refunds": 4, "pnl": -1147.7, "wins": 178, "ev_per_fill": -3.28, "hit": 0.509}, "worst": {"fills": 350, "misses": 1149, "pending": 59, "refunds": 4, "pnl": -1322.06, "wins": 178, "ev_per_fill": -3.78, "hit": 0.509}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 1, "pnl": 37.72}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 2, "pnl": 59.26}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 24, "pnl": 502.53}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-28", "computed_at": "2026-07-28 17:48 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 6710, "fills": 1173, "pending": 4, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 65.35, "wins": 524, "ev_per_fill": 0.06, "hit": 0.447}, "0.07": {"events": 3802, "fills": 419, "pending": 3, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 2369.06, "wins": 191, "ev_per_fill": 5.65, "hit": 0.456}, "0.1": {"events": 2679, "fills": 214, "pending": 3, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 2055.26, "wins": 103, "ev_per_fill": 9.6, "hit": 0.481}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-28", "computed_at": "2026-07-28 17:48 UTC", "triggers": 18, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 6, "misses": 12, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -618.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "worst": {"fills": 6, "misses": 12, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -618.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-28", "computed_at": "2026-07-28 17:48 UTC", "screened": 1608, "leans": 4956, "follow_small": {"n": 3043, "pending": 734, "pnl": 20781.22, "ev_per_lean": 6.83, "hit": 0.599}, "mid_report": {"n": 653, "pending": 165, "pnl": 4136.44, "ev_per_lean": 6.33, "hit": 0.574}, "fade_whale": {"n": 254, "pending": 80, "pnl": 532.17, "ev_per_lean": 2.1, "hit": 0.386}}

research/grade_lag.py

@@ -20,6 +20,9 @@ STATE_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lag_state.pull.json")
 ATT_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lag_attempts.pull.jsonl")
 SET_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lag_settles.pull.jsonl")
 FLYCTL = shutil.which("flyctl") or "/opt/homebrew/bin/flyctl"
+# #27 freeze: v2 scores ONLY fills at/after this instant. v1 fills are
+# not reusable for the band verdict (the band was found by slicing them).
+V2_FREEZE_TS = 1785200000        # 2026-07-27 ~19:33Z, the commit that ships it
 
 
 def sftp(remote, local):
@@ -120,7 +123,31 @@ def main():
         print(f"[grade_lag] OBSERVATIONAL: median ask premium "
               f"{st.median(prem)*100:+.1f}c over {len(prem)} attempts "
               f"(kill-switch: >= +8c across 3 days)")
-    print("[grade_lag] verdict binds to the Study D pre-registration")
+    # ── #27 v2: the 15-40c complement band, forward fills only ───────────
+    import guards
+    led = []
+    try:
+        for ln in open(LEDGER):
+            try:
+                led.append(json.loads(ln))
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    print("[grade_lag] " + guards.line("v1 ALL-BANDS", guards.cuts(led),
+                                       pass_ev=4.0))
+    v2 = [r for r in led if r.get("ts", 0) >= V2_FREEZE_TS
+          and 0.15 <= (r.get("price") or 0) < 0.40]
+    print("[grade_lag] " + guards.line("v2 BAND 15-40c", guards.cuts(v2),
+                                       pass_ev=8.0))
+    for lo, hi, tag in ((0.0, 0.15, "<15c"), (0.40, 0.70, "40-70c"),
+                        (0.70, 1.01, ">=70c")):
+        ctl = [r for r in led if r.get("ts", 0) >= V2_FREEZE_TS
+               and lo <= (r.get("price") or 0) < hi]
+        if ctl:
+            print("[grade_lag]   control " + guards.line(tag, guards.cuts(ctl)))
+    print("[grade_lag] verdict binds to the Study D pre-registration (v1) "
+          "and #27 (v2 band; PASS needs EV>=+$8 AND all guards clear)")
     return 0
 
 

research/grade_lean.py

@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Nightly chain-truth grading of the maker-lean harness (wwf-leanbot).
+
+Pulls /data/lean_state.json + lean_attempts.jsonl + lean_settles.jsonl off
+the box (read-only), re-grades every settle with CTF payout vectors,
+appends to research/lean_paper_ledger.jsonl (keyed asset+ts, idempotent),
+and prints the pre-registered readouts for #26: paper-leg EV/fill WITH
+the shared concentration guards (guards.py — ex-best-day, ex-top5,
+top-event share; a headline PASS that fails them is CONCENTRATED and does
+not graduate), plus the OBSERVATIONAL kill-switch — the median ask
+premium over the lean-side print (>= 8c over 3 days = the tape's entry
+was a mirage, no paper sample needed)."""
+import json
+import os
+import shutil
+import statistics as st
+import subprocess
+import sys
+
+HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
+LEDGER = os.path.join(HERE, "lean_paper_ledger.jsonl")
+STATE_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_state.pull.json")
+ATT_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_attempts.pull.jsonl")
+SET_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_settles.pull.jsonl")
+FLYCTL = shutil.which("flyctl") or "/opt/homebrew/bin/flyctl"
+
+
+def sftp(remote, local):
+    subprocess.run([FLYCTL, "ssh", "sftp", "get", remote, local + ".new",
+                    "-a", "wwf-leanbot"], capture_output=True,
+                   timeout=600, stdin=subprocess.DEVNULL)
+    if os.path.exists(local + ".new") and os.path.getsize(local + ".new") > 0:
+        os.replace(local + ".new", local)
+        return True
+    try:
+        os.remove(local + ".new")
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    return False
+
+
+def main():
+    ok = sftp("/data/lean_state.json", STATE_PULL)
+    sftp("/data/lean_attempts.jsonl", ATT_PULL)
+    sftp("/data/lean_settles.jsonl", SET_PULL)
+    if not ok:
+        print("[grade_lean] box unreachable or no state yet — skip")
+        return 0
+    stt = json.load(open(STATE_PULL))
+    sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(HERE, "..", "live"))
+    import payouts
+    have = set()
+    ledger_rows = 0
+    try:
+        for ln in open(LEDGER):
+            try:
+                d = json.loads(ln)
+                have.add((d["asset"], d["ts"]))
+                ledger_rows += 1
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    settled = stt.get("settled", [])
+    if os.path.exists(SET_PULL):       # durable log beats trimmed state
+        seen = {(s["asset"], s["ts"]) for s in settled}
+        for ln in open(SET_PULL):
+            try:
+                s = json.loads(ln)
+                if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in seen:
+                    settled.append(s)
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    new = [s for s in settled if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in have]
+    if new:
+        payouts.ensure(sorted({s["cond"] for s in new if s.get("cond")}))
+    graded = flips = 0
+    with open(LEDGER, "a") as fh:
+        for s in new:
+            t = payouts.truth(s.get("cond"), s.get("asset")) \
+                if s.get("cond") else None
+            pay = s["payout"] if t is None else t
+            pnl = round(s["shares"] * pay - s["cost"] - s["fee"], 2)
+            if t is not None and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9:
+                flips += 1
+            fh.write(json.dumps({**s, "chain_payout": pay, "chain_pnl": pnl,
+                                 "flip": t is not None
+                                 and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9}) + "\n")
+            graded += 1
+    import guards
+    led = []
+    try:
+        for ln in open(LEDGER):
+            try:
+                led.append(json.loads(ln))
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    # observational kill-switch: median premium across ALL attempts with a
+    # visible ask (fills, premium-skips, craters alike)
+    prem = []
+    try:
+        for ln in open(ATT_PULL):
+            try:
+                a = json.loads(ln)
+                if a.get("premium") is not None:
+                    prem.append(a["premium"])
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    c = stt.get("counters", {})
+    cuts = guards.cuts(led)
+    print(f"[grade_lean] +{graded} settles ({flips} flips) · "
+          f"lifetime cross {c.get('crossings')} att {c.get('attempts')} "
+          f"fill {c.get('fills')} prem-skip {c.get('premium_skips')}")
+    print("[grade_lean] " + guards.line("PAPER LEG", cuts, pass_ev=2.0))
+    if prem:
+        prem.sort()
+        print(f"[grade_lean] OBSERVATIONAL: median ask premium "
+              f"{st.median(prem)*100:+.1f}c over {len(prem)} attempts "
+              f"(kill-switch: >= +8c across 3 days)")
+    print("[grade_lean] verdict binds to the Study C Stage-2 (#26) pre-registration")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())

research/guards.py

@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Concentration guards, shared by every harness grader (#26/#27).
+
+Two studies passed their headline bars this week on results that one
+session or five episodes were carrying (Study C ex-best-day +$1.47 vs a
++$2 bar; Study D ex-best-day −$5.86 on a +$4.49 headline). These cuts
+turn that lesson into machinery: every grader reports them nightly, and
+a PASS whose ex-best-day EV is <= 0 is recorded CONCENTRATED and does
+not graduate.
+
+rows: dicts with chain_pnl, cost, ts, and (optionally) event.
+"""
+import collections
+import datetime as dt
+
+
+def cuts(rows, pnl_key="chain_pnl"):
+    """-> dict of the guard readings (empty dict when there is nothing)."""
+    rows = [r for r in rows if r.get(pnl_key) is not None]
+    n = len(rows)
+    if not n:
+        return {}
+    tot = sum(r[pnl_key] for r in rows)
+    staked = sum(r.get("cost") or 0 for r in rows)
+    out = {"n": n, "pnl": round(tot, 2), "ev": round(tot / n, 2),
+           "pct_staked": round(100 * tot / staked, 1) if staked else None,
+           "wins": sum(1 for r in rows if r.get("chain_payout") == 1.0)}
+    out["hit"] = round(out["wins"] / n, 3)
+    # episode concentration
+    srt = sorted(rows, key=lambda r: -abs(r[pnl_key]))
+    for k in (1, 5):
+        if n > k:
+            ex = sum(r[pnl_key] for r in srt[k:])
+            out[f"ex_top{k}_ev"] = round(ex / (n - k), 2)
+    out["top5_share"] = (round(100 * sum(r[pnl_key] for r in srt[:5]) / tot, 0)
+                         if tot else None)
+    # TIME concentration — the guard both studies needed
+    byday = collections.defaultdict(lambda: [0, 0.0])
+    for r in rows:
+        d = dt.datetime.utcfromtimestamp(r["ts"]).strftime("%m-%d")
+        byday[d][0] += 1
+        byday[d][1] += r[pnl_key]
+    out["days"] = len(byday)
+    out["by_day"] = {d: [v[0], round(v[1], 0)] for d, v in sorted(byday.items())}
+    if len(byday) > 1:
+        best = max(byday.values(), key=lambda v: v[1])
+        exn = n - best[0]
+        if exn > 0:
+            out["ex_best_day_ev"] = round((tot - best[1]) / exn, 2)
+            out["ex_best_day_n"] = exn
+    # EVENT concentration (the gate Study C's fade arm failed at 32%)
+    ev = collections.defaultdict(float)
+    for r in rows:
+        if r.get("event"):
+            ev[r["event"]] += r[pnl_key]
+    if ev and tot:
+        out["events"] = len(ev)
+        out["top_event_share"] = round(
+            100 * max(ev.values(), key=abs) / tot, 0)
+    return out
+
+
+def line(tag, c, pass_ev=None):
+    """One printable verdict line + the guard verdict."""
+    if not c:
+        return f"{tag}: no graded rows"
+    s = (f"{tag}: n={c['n']} {c['wins']}W · EV/fill {c['ev']:+.2f} · "
+         f"hit {c['hit']:.3f} · {c['pct_staked']:+.0f}% staked · "
+         f"{c['days']}d")
+    if "ex_best_day_ev" in c:
+        s += f" · EX-BEST-DAY {c['ex_best_day_ev']:+.2f}"
+    if "ex_top5_ev" in c:
+        s += f" · ex-top5 {c['ex_top5_ev']:+.2f}"
+    if "top_event_share" in c:
+        s += f" · top-event {c['top_event_share']:+.0f}%"
+    if pass_ev is not None:
+        bars = [c["ev"] >= pass_ev,
+                c.get("ex_best_day_ev", -1) > 0,
+                c.get("ex_top5_ev", -1) > 0,
+                abs(c.get("top_event_share") or 0) < 30]
+        s += ("  -> " + ("ALL GUARDS CLEAR" if all(bars) else
+                         "CONCENTRATED (headline only)" if bars[0] else
+                         "below bar"))
+    return s

research/lag_paper_ledger.jsonl

@@ -0,0 +1,470 @@
+{"event": "dota2-lvlup1-aion-2026-07-23", "outc": "level up", "leader": "89507678504793426551212929924870711276308423203092272391688242222946163423059", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.55, "sgn": -1, "asset": "94600501717187708583303443321939472661253172303827265919528577679589382750192", "cond": "0x868fee35d42c65e4353fb4b796ec231b3b0809865a3aed792cff9709872e6981", "title": "Dota 2: Level UP vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Gr", "stale": 0.11, "ts": 1784842159.254, "price": 0.14903, "best_ask": 0.13, "premium": 0.02, "shares": 402.0, "cost": 59.91, "fee": 1.7973, "levels": 3, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1784856089.882884, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1784856091, "pnl": -61.71, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -61.71, "flip": false}
+{"event": "dota2-lvlup1-aion-2026-07-23", "outc": "team aion", "leader": "5647148672921589245030542810175330868101932532344795596693147024240325408360", "lead_mv": -0.16, "lead_px": 0.32, "sgn": -1, "asset": "6431187516415431956913260207884118588714393484530650412086135978357502804927", "cond": "0x868fee35d42c65e4353fb4b796ec231b3b0809865a3aed792cff9709872e6981", "title": "Dota 2: Level UP vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Gr", "stale": 0.89, "ts": 1784843372.687, "price": 0.89937, "best_ask": 0.89, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 111.1889, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 0.3357, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 46, "clob_ck": 1784856089.882884, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1784856091, "pnl": 10.85, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 10.85, "flip": false}
+{"event": "cs2-isg-pdaf-2026-07-23", "outc": "patins da ferrari", "leader": "26199605089017810013607400937466638753265867159683331238194349301537649882702", "lead_mv": 0.11, "lead_px": 0.45, "sgn": 1, "asset": "69820771310818687824438444000479063948984885174492968252635212674969766962399", "cond": "0xc67d660b321c4175f1335020fa9b567610a190a139eac8dfc78f690856906ddf", "title": "Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Patins da Ferrari - Map 1 Winner", "stale": 0.06, "ts": 1784853443.368, "price": 0.00132, "best_ask": 0.001, "premium": -0.059, "shares": 75683.433, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 4, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1784856211.0883157, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1784856212, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
+{"event": "dota2-lvlup1-aion-2026-07-23", "outc": "level up", "leader": "89507678504793426551212929924870711276308423203092272391688242222946163423059", "lead_mv": -0.11, "lead_px": 0.59, "sgn": -1, "asset": "94600501717187708583303443321939472661253172303827265919528577679589382750192", "cond": "0x868fee35d42c65e4353fb4b796ec231b3b0809865a3aed792cff9709872e6981", "title": "Dota 2: Level UP vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Gr", "stale": 0.14, "ts": 1784842772.254, "price": 0.16382, "best_ask": 0.15, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 610.4118, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 3, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 48, "clob_ck": 1784856211.0883157, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1784856212, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
+{"event": "mlb-ari-stl-2026-06-25", "outc": "st. louis cardinals", "leader": "71856455118493709297632503907487243818721512819680089446567991379519689617161", "lead_mv": 0.13, "lead_px": 0.73, "sgn": 1, "asset": "5229354428865547873933060356596762525702479402185576080013629502196858700357", "cond": "0x983aafe2560d2e3987a2ecbeb022c364160c03ead3543d607e0aa2313006d2aa", "title": "Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)", "stale": 0.56, "ts": 1784841980.768, "price": 0.56097, "best_ask": 0.56, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 178.2632, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 2.3479, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 46, "clob_ck": 1784857665.4277174, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1784857666, "pnl": -102.35, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -102.35, "flip": false}
+{"event": "mlb-ari-stl-2026-06-25", "outc": "arizona diamondbacks", "leader": "46779723381704339196945414642157562369699423381301456693265473805729782194057", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.7, "sgn": -1, "asset": "5229354428865547873933060356596762525702479402185576080013629502196858700357", "cond": "0x983aafe2560d2e3987a2ecbeb022c364160c03ead3543d607e0aa2313006d2aa", "title": "Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)", "stale": 0.18, "ts": 1784847320.573, "price": 0.21, "best_ask": 0.21, "premium": 0.03, "shares": 44.0, "cost": 9.24, "fee": 0.2772, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 49, "clob_ck": 1784857786.6077118, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1784857787, "pnl": -9.52, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -9.52, "flip": false}
+{"event": "mlb-kc-det-2026-07-23", "outc": "detroit tigers", "leader": "96617713993786130994718862574976195118143572114631506503883545188677968775939", "lead_mv": -0.14, "lead_px": 0.36, "sgn": -1, "asset": "66893369134053222164005368137451678555462899057124936937829644756270151186132", "cond": "0xb1c3b1aa624b68d2f3e32b044fc25ee9852a0a6f14b7ae9ae17ca0d23d4763a9", "title": "Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers", "stale": 0.4487, "ts": 1784846977.325, "price": 0.44, "best_ask": 0.44, "premium": -0.0087, "shares": 227.2727, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 55, "clob_ck": 1784858149.9728007, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1784858151, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
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+{"event": "lol-bar-gxp-2026-07-28", "outc": "giantx itero", "leader": "92270979911672595491866048958764370831199194168759063323904862213777152407573", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.15, "sgn": -1, "asset": "100436562974203158222701682454490933015760172201222550990661155759584757102052", "cond": "0x27b1663ac1db47d10b4c626ef56c835fbb1003354b4b1ca390bf0d8d590d8a53", "title": "LoL: Bar\u00e7a eSports vs GIANTX iTero - Game 1 Winner", "stale": 0.9, "ts": 1785257720.326, "price": 0.91, "best_ask": 0.91, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 109.8901, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 0.2967, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 48, "clob_ck": 1785273905.1682663, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785273906, "pnl": 9.59, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 9.59, "flip": false}
+{"event": "atp-fils-jodar-2026-07-27", "outc": "jodar", "leader": "114534721266494635499178849726704144990717651276353486395873444011864430376119", "lead_mv": -0.14, "lead_px": 0.34, "sgn": -1, "asset": "19562666199379112756591540642217908808541015169688673301676560322541694054636", "cond": "0xd8d302d8eb50f4b161401dbf3e448255d512c3d428ae103c4c64d6b62103aa36", "title": "Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5)", "stale": 0.4, "ts": 1785261720.659, "price": 0.39, "best_ask": 0.39, "premium": -0.01, "shares": 256.4103, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1785273905.1682663, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785273906, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
+{"event": "wta-kasatki-kalinsk-2026-07-28", "outc": "kalinskaya", "leader": "38083907736193695407185670860322550936053770365390710837272707488816727300748", "lead_mv": 0.127, "lead_px": 0.999, "sgn": 1, "asset": "78303846018821624930742814754971353390879993264924609718366788354652929800226", "cond": "0x2a68aa6fc8f2d3310a33913608c9cc749ba0b0677eb877d821dae2ec8bf15eca", "title": "Set 2 Winner: Kasatkina vs Kalinskaya", "stale": 0.62, "ts": 1785269622.646, "price": 0.62, "best_ask": 0.62, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 161.2903, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.8387, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 54, "clob_ck": 1785274148.1811235, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785274149, "pnl": 59.45, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 59.45, "flip": false}

research/lean_crossing_diag.py

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""#26 follow-up — DO THE TAPE AND THE HARNESS NAME THE SAME EVENT?
+
+Study C scored +$2.17/lean on tape and −$2.26/fill at a real book, with
+the entry price ruled out (median ask premium +1.0c, 72% fill rate). The
+remaining suspect is the SIGNAL DEFINITION itself: the harness builds
+each (wallet, token) inventory from the live stream and starts EMPTY at
+boot, while maker_lean.day_leans() sees the wallet's whole day. If those
+two disagree about WHEN net inventory crosses $150, they are measuring
+different events under one name — and #22's tape number was never
+reachable by construction rather than by execution.
+
+Method: take the harness's own attempts (its declared crossings, after
+the band/event-cap/print filters), recompute tape crossings over the SAME
+wallets and window with the frozen method, and ask three questions:
+  1. agreement — what fraction of harness attempts have a tape crossing
+     for the same (wallet, asset, day)?
+  2. tape-only  — crossings the tape names that the harness never saw
+  3. size drift — for matched pairs, how far apart are the lean_usd the
+     two computed? (the direct read on whole-day vs from-boot inventory)
+Read-only; no verdict authority — it explains a KILL that already fired.
+"""
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+import time
+import collections
+
+HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
+sys.path.insert(0, HERE)
+import tape                                    # noqa: E402
+import maker_lean as ml                        # noqa: E402
+
+ATT = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_attempts.pull.jsonl")
+
+
+def main():
+    att = []
+    for ln in open(ATT):
+        try:
+            att.append(json.loads(ln))
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+    if not att:
+        raise SystemExit("no attempts pulled")
+    lo_ts = min(a["ts"] for a in att)
+    hi_ts = max(a["ts"] for a in att)
+    print(f"harness attempts: {len(att)} · window "
+          f"{time.strftime('%m-%d %H:%M', time.gmtime(lo_ts))} -> "
+          f"{time.strftime('%m-%d %H:%M', time.gmtime(hi_ts))}Z", flush=True)
+
+    db = tape.connect()
+    # the harness screens off params/maker_set.json (published nightly);
+    # use the SAME set so any gap is about crossing detection, not the set
+    sharps = set(json.load(open(os.path.join(
+        HERE, "params", "maker_set.json")))["wallets"])
+    sharps = {w.lower() for w in sharps}
+    print(f"screened set: {len(sharps)} wallets (same file the box fetches)",
+          flush=True)
+
+    # tape crossings over the harness's own window, frozen method
+    leans = ml.day_leans(db, int(lo_ts), int(hi_ts) + 1, sharps)
+    db.close()
+    band = [t for t in leans
+            if ml.LEAN_USD <= t["lean_usd"] < 500.0]
+    print(f"tape crossings in window: {len(leans)} · in the $150-500 "
+          f"follow band: {len(band)}", flush=True)
+
+    def key(w, a, ts):
+        return ((w or "").lower(), str(a), int(ts // 86400))
+
+    # the harness's crossing is on the SOURCE token it watched (src_asset);
+    # day_leans keys on the same wallet+asset it saw the inventory build in
+    h_keys = {key(a.get("wallet"), a.get("src_asset") or a.get("asset"),
+                  a["ts"]): a for a in att}
+    t_keys = {key(t["w"], t["a"], t["ts"]): t for t in band}
+    both = set(h_keys) & set(t_keys)
+    h_only = set(h_keys) - set(t_keys)
+    t_only = set(t_keys) - set(h_keys)
+
+    print("\n== AGREEMENT ==")
+    print(f"  harness attempts matched by a tape crossing: "
+          f"{len(both)}/{len(h_keys)} = {100*len(both)/max(1,len(h_keys)):.0f}%")
+    print(f"  harness-only (tape never named it): {len(h_only)}")
+    print(f"  tape-only  (harness never saw it):  {len(t_only)}"
+          f"  [of {len(t_keys)} tape crossings = "
+          f"{100*len(t_only)/max(1,len(t_keys)):.0f}% missed]")
+
+    if both:
+        drift = []
+        for k in both:
+            drift.append((h_keys[k]["lean_usd"], t_keys[k]["lean_usd"]))
+        rel = sorted(abs(h - t) / max(t, 1) for h, t in drift)
+        agree = sum(1 for h, t in drift if abs(h - t) / max(t, 1) < 0.10)
+        print("\n== SIZE DRIFT on matched pairs ==")
+        print(f"  within 10% of each other: {agree}/{len(drift)} = "
+              f"{100*agree/len(drift):.0f}%")
+        print(f"  median |gap|: {100*rel[len(rel)//2]:.0f}% · "
+              f"p90 {100*rel[int(.9*len(rel))]:.0f}%")
+        for h, t in drift[:5]:
+            print(f"    harness ${h:>7.0f} vs tape ${t:>7.0f}")
+
+    if t_only:
+        by = collections.Counter(k[0][:10] for k in t_only)
+        print(f"\n  tape-only by wallet (top): {dict(by.most_common(4))}")
+    if h_only:
+        by = collections.Counter(k[0][:10] for k in h_only)
+        print(f"  harness-only by wallet (top): {dict(by.most_common(4))}")
+
+    print("\nREAD: high agreement => the definitions match and the KILL is "
+          "about the market, not the method. Low agreement or large size "
+          "drift => the two systems name different events and #22's tape "
+          "number was unreachable by construction.")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

research/lean_paper_ledger.jsonl

@@ -0,0 +1,763 @@
+{"wallet": "0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6", "src_asset": "63040897640976194506586365072289217146994590237929752329092983973554772493863", "asset": "63040897640976194506586365072289217146994590237929752329092983973554772493863", "cond": "0xc99a21fcf08589789443de7ea8b7807289ff4d76c23b8f3acae01f7d4810f44d", "event": "eth-updown-5m-1785182700", "title": "Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET", "outcome": "Up", "lean_usd": 207.44, "net": 207.44, "gross": 207.44, "side": 1, "print": 0.09, "lean_px": 0.1, "ts": 1785182913.886, "price": 0.10997, "best_ask": 0.1, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 418.08, "cost": 45.98, "fee": 1.3793, "levels": 3, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 46, "clob_ck": 1785184824.8410692, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785184826, "pnl": -47.36, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -47.36, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6", "src_asset": "96922287040892692002484935544479458445887850239096960356106328182083653622471", "asset": "96922287040892692002484935544479458445887850239096960356106328182083653622471", "cond": "0xf8dfcc7400277d33431604d931f52bdbee4dbcd694a42a36d4ac650428ad9881", "event": "eth-updown-5m-1785183300", "title": "Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET", "outcome": "Up", "lean_usd": 203.72, "net": 203.72, "gross": 203.72, "side": 1, "print": 0.28, "lean_px": 0.291, "ts": 1785183332.432, "price": 0.29185, "best_ask": 0.29, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 342.6383, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 54, "clob_ck": 1785185310.2158694, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785185313, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6", "src_asset": "29923553432233131218750206882184553026015365622241257929614260241908152761557", "asset": "29923553432233131218750206882184553026015365622241257929614260241908152761557", "cond": "0xb11fbf1663b52deedd2bf17adf3dca3c94de5d46998e21c2a3fadcd90fbdeb7e", "event": "eth-updown-5m-1785183600", "title": "Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET", "outcome": "Up", "lean_usd": 242.96, "net": 242.96, "gross": 242.96, "side": 1, "print": 0.53, "lean_px": 0.5548, "ts": 1785183665.224, "price": 0.56, "best_ask": 0.56, "premium": 0.03, "shares": 76.26, "cost": 42.71, "fee": 1.0066, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 45, "clob_ck": 1785185677.6415315, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785185684, "pnl": 32.54, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 32.54, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6", "src_asset": "108992430544393745428429858167008377206902513464198966511785347479236402630770", "asset": "108992430544393745428429858167008377206902513464198966511785347479236402630770", "cond": "0xb11fbf1663b52deedd2bf17adf3dca3c94de5d46998e21c2a3fadcd90fbdeb7e", "event": "eth-updown-5m-1785183600", "title": "Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET", "outcome": "Down", "lean_usd": 287.84, "net": 287.84, "gross": 287.84, "side": 1, "print": 0.25, "lean_px": 0.2948, "ts": 1785183811.162, "price": 0.21215, "best_ask": 0.18, "premium": -0.07, "shares": 471.375, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 7, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 54, "clob_ck": 1785185677.6415315, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785185684, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6", "src_asset": "76094561681349825035532095435093230990499418767185425954953201257752317555409", "asset": "76094561681349825035532095435093230990499418767185425954953201257752317555409", "cond": "0xa53b1a4c234d4996d1aed3f5a16c12a2e7039bb29a77c82ee35e1aa5dd792ddd", "event": "eth-updown-5m-1785183900", "title": "Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET", "outcome": "Down", "lean_usd": 190.65, "net": 190.65, "gross": 190.65, "side": 1, "print": 0.36, "lean_px": 0.4065, "ts": 1785183927.988, "price": 0.37979, "best_ask": 0.37, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 263.3051, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 3, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 51, "clob_ck": 1785186174.682058, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785186180, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6", "src_asset": "111188192843093624651773134412089256655978407382625266165474658047551423661734", "asset": "111188192843093624651773134412089256655978407382625266165474658047551423661734", "cond": "0xd574a0dd6f52af34a3ef9c7c8085301d8809e44500a27bd1d6dcb814db9045bb", "event": "eth-updown-5m-1785184200", "title": "Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET", "outcome": "Up", "lean_usd": 172.02, "net": 172.02, "gross": 172.02, "side": 1, "print": 0.15, "lean_px": 0.1672, "ts": 1785184274.73, "price": 0.17255, "best_ask": 0.15, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 362.2, "cost": 62.5, "fee": 1.8749, "levels": 4, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 51, "clob_ck": 1785186301.086241, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785186303, "pnl": -64.37, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -64.37, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xfcdc071df7080c214196bb0b3b751e5417f9d8e3", "src_asset": "16777986507162289409202891893522086551062556972507282677080319326193684887903", "asset": "16777986507162289409202891893522086551062556972507282677080319326193684887903", "cond": "0xcf0a6488b2dec5947f5b70206c35a0138dc895ff3fd5cd31801f6b061c206521", "event": "btc-updown-15m-1785184200", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET", "outcome": "Down", "lean_usd": 152.25, "net": 152.25, "gross": 152.25, "side": 1, "print": 0.75, "lean_px": 0.75, "ts": 1785184709.635, "price": 0.75, "best_ask": 0.75, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 133.3333, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 53, "clob_ck": 1785187151.263946, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785187152, "pnl": 32.33, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 32.33, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6", "src_asset": "47150461435146919945781634374493041682828829118861092889218312086451059794427", "asset": "47150461435146919945781634374493041682828829118861092889218312086451059794427", "cond": "0xa99c8ebd822ea6bc6de58ad089a94ef0fe04ec19d11bd8c78a68fb3bb8e29780", "event": "eth-updown-5m-1785185400", "title": "Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET", "outcome": "Down", "lean_usd": 413.08, "net": 413.08, "gross": 413.08, "side": 1, "print": 0.59, "lean_px": 0.5961, "ts": 1785185445.562, "price": 0.60945, "best_ask": 0.6, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 164.082, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.9225, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1785188000.938388, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785188002, "pnl": -101.92, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -101.92, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xfcdc071df7080c214196bb0b3b751e5417f9d8e3", "src_asset": "17080908841280539714701175151293324677353277740456558389973612043780678527192", "asset": "17080908841280539714701175151293324677353277740456558389973612043780678527192", "cond": "0x05a22032b337c117bd4d6fa4707786e0a4b7d7f363334838efbb9ca5a99e598b", "event": "btc-updown-15m-1785185100", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET", "outcome": "Down", "lean_usd": 151.3, "net": 151.3, "gross": 151.3, "side": 1, "print": 0.68, "lean_px": 0.68, "ts": 1785185725.885, "price": 0.68475, "best_ask": 0.68, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 146.0397, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.3812, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 240, "clob_ck": 1785188365.345853, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785188366, "pnl": -101.38, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -101.38, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6", "src_asset": "87164324464227502249992335930662807458064186624913748792945680548245836387241", "asset": "87164324464227502249992335930662807458064186624913748792945680548245836387241", "cond": "0x17c287dd77728d5fe64bdceb7f84e45ea62bbe997730064d284693b967cb1d69", "event": "eth-updown-5m-1785186000", "title": "Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET", "outcome": "Down", "lean_usd": 444.6, "net": 444.6, "gross": 444.6, "side": 1, "print": 0.5713, "lean_px": 0.5713, "ts": 1785185835.923, "price": 0.58794, "best_ask": 0.58, "premium": 0.0087, "shares": 170.0847, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 2.1025, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 47, "clob_ck": 1785188607.8776634, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785188609, "pnl": 67.98, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 67.98, "flip": false}
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+{"wallet": "0xdc81f14a6e9af07af6ca443f63de558c7612e889", "src_asset": "52601976916552684833989557691132870096168951948702303317611424566028611534018", "asset": "52601976916552684833989557691132870096168951948702303317611424566028611534018", "cond": "0x44c82bdbface1bd8222a75c33e38b02c954ee7c2700a5bd97b2bb67d86b9e039", "event": "atp-roncade-nicod-2026-07-28", "title": "Liberec: Franco Roncadelli vs Jakub Nicod", "outcome": "Franco Roncadelli", "lean_usd": 157.48, "net": 157.48, "gross": 157.48, "side": 1, "print": 0.4, "lean_px": 0.4, "ts": 1785221238.873, "price": 0.41, "best_ask": 0.41, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 243.9024, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 52, "clob_ck": 1785274152.642452, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785274153, "pnl": 140.9, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 140.9, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0x076daa87c4fe1a85402a9b6b8e0a866224388d4c", "src_asset": "83875203539879426204160268208083149423466428866143610583388482404977217833737", "asset": "83875203539879426204160268208083149423466428866143610583388482404977217833737", "cond": "0xf944aa8fa32b5bd168ffa49f78825ffdc74a0315a496528a9afb760aaaecf604", "event": "atp-fils-jodar-2026-07-27", "title": "Mubadala Citi DC Open: Arthur Fils vs Rafael Jodar", "outcome": "Arthur Fils", "lean_usd": 267.88, "net": 267.88, "gross": 267.88, "side": 1, "print": 0.59, "lean_px": 0.6, "ts": 1785249944.524, "price": 0.6, "best_ask": 0.6, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 166.6667, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 2.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 156, "clob_ck": 1785274275.241366, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785274276, "pnl": -102.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -102.0, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0x294b241f8b97845803fe34a9b99629e07cd422d2", "src_asset": "52651990528651061281747635983374209994516468786804797586116610568249293625677", "asset": "52651990528651061281747635983374209994516468786804797586116610568249293625677", "cond": "0x44c82bdbface1bd8222a75c33e38b02c954ee7c2700a5bd97b2bb67d86b9e039", "event": "atp-roncade-nicod-2026-07-28", "title": "Liberec: Franco Roncadelli vs Jakub Nicod", "outcome": "Jakub Nicod", "lean_usd": 200.0, "net": 200.0, "gross": 200.0, "side": 1, "print": 0.58, "lean_px": 0.59, "ts": 1785249947.725, "price": 0.59, "best_ask": 0.59, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 169.4915, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 2.0847, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 319, "clob_ck": 1785274275.241366, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785274276, "pnl": -102.08, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -102.08, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xc07d5961e7a361992983c1a3a865d00dc28cb1df", "src_asset": "34685070624741525968073517845969444808680841484620978490206029743402304036557", "asset": "34685070624741525968073517845969444808680841484620978490206029743402304036557", "cond": "0x7933ce0528910ef26f413f3ebddc316181c1c08133af9e37134900965b04b474", "event": "itf-herea-mansfie-2026-07-28", "title": "ITF Florence: Carmen Andreea Herea vs Kate Mansfield", "outcome": "Carmen Andreea Herea", "lean_usd": 224.5, "net": 224.5, "gross": 224.5, "side": 1, "print": 0.67, "lean_px": 0.67, "ts": 1785253972.121, "price": 0.68, "best_ask": 0.68, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 147.0588, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.4118, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 240, "clob_ck": 1785274275.241366, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785274276, "pnl": 45.65, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 45.65, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0x2ef97ef235f8f468d8fa5cb98aa151e3bf4611b4", "src_asset": "81620146340394157542376009999326128953556134950203947754795643344590044854167", "asset": "81620146340394157542376009999326128953556134950203947754795643344590044854167", "cond": "0x5bf9838a8804dd7f4a5c11ae008d7e231d24a438bb27954459abb46994f10d41", "event": "ucl-din-thu-2026-07-28", "title": "Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-07-28?", "outcome": "Yes", "lean_usd": 200.0, "net": 200.0, "gross": 200.0, "side": 1, "print": 0.73, "lean_px": 0.73, "ts": 1785257985.723, "price": 0.73, "best_ask": 0.73, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 136.9863, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.1096, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 319, "clob_ck": 1785274275.241366, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785274276, "pnl": -101.11, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -101.11, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0xaedd5e3146a21219f4837feb0691d9b09926ad5b", "src_asset": "92157329701399620198550524653013264577114081158356855192227607220218236387817", "asset": "92157329701399620198550524653013264577114081158356855192227607220218236387817", "cond": "0x7b89b0ab80ce647e633efd13daafbe981856e300d9e8267b8f423cd9d0b63969", "event": "col-al-dil-2026-07-28", "title": "Will SK Dila Gori win on 2026-07-28?", "outcome": "No", "lean_usd": 151.04, "net": 151.04, "gross": 151.04, "side": 1, "print": 0.9, "lean_px": 0.9, "ts": 1785185896.021, "price": 0.9, "best_ask": 0.9, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 111.1111, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 0.3333, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 48, "clob_ck": 1785274275.241366, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785274276, "pnl": 10.78, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 10.78, "flip": false}
+{"wallet": "0x2167ae62b705484c7b474ad78ad0dc6110d8fa33", "src_asset": "41392046197349466833198800664009246022269237873899998176285543070886837537061", "asset": "41392046197349466833198800664009246022269237873899998176285543070886837537061", "cond": "0x50183fa3a8fbe9e98a22a46a00f2a6be186730a134682835a2a46ff1f587a45b", "event": "cs2-cyb-lavked-2026-07-28", "title": "Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou", "outcome": "Lavked", "lean_usd": 200.0, "net": 200.0, "gross": 200.0, "side": 1, "print": 0.51, "lean_px": 0.51, "ts": 1785201926.524, "price": 0.52, "best_ask": 0.52, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 192.3077, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 2.7692, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 48, "clob_ck": 1785274275.241366, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785274276, "pnl": -102.77, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -102.77, "flip": false}

research/leanbot.Dockerfile

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+# wwf-leanbot — one dep, no git, no clone (same discipline as the others).
+FROM python:3.12-slim
+RUN pip install --no-cache-dir websocket-client
+COPY research/leanbot.py /leanbot.py
+CMD ["python3", "-u", "/leanbot.py"]

research/leanbot.py

@@ -0,0 +1,631 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""leanbot — Study C Stage-2 (#26): maker inventory-leans at REAL execution.
+
+PAPER ONLY. No keys, no orders, no bot imports — self-contained (baked
+into the wwf-leanbot image). Study C (#22) PASSED its tape-scored window
+(+$2.17/lean, hit .576, n=20,461, 6 days) but every entry was booked at
+the lean-side LAST PRINT — an entry no real order can have. Study B died
+of exactly that assumption (tape-positive, −$8.51/fill at a real book).
+This box answers the only question that matters: when a screened
+maker-sharp's inventory crosses the conviction line, is the lean side
+still buyable near that print?
+
+Two legs per lean, both recorded:
+  observational  ask premium over the lean-side last print at trigger time
+                 (median premium >= 8c over 3 days = the tape's entry was a
+                 mirage — pre-registered kill-switch, no paper sample needed)
+  paper          $100 FAK walk at the real ask, gated by the pre-declared
+                 premium cap (+3c over the print; tighter than lagbot's 4c
+                 because a lean carries no urgency — nothing is crashing)
+
+THE VERDICT BINDS TO #26. Entries graded nightly against chain truth
+(grade_lean.py). Any semantics-altering fix bumps SEM_VER and restarts
+the shakedown clock.
+
+FROZEN spec (from #22 + pre-declared; do not tune here):
+  set        maker-sharps screened on strictly-prior tape, published
+             nightly by maker_set.py (the box never screens itself)
+  inventory  rolling net/gross USD per (wallet, token) from the
+             orders_matched stream — inventory absorbed while quoting
+  trigger    first crossing per (wallet, token, day) of
+             |net|*px >= $150 AND |net|/gross >= 0.6, lean px in [0.05,0.95]
+  band       follow arm only: lean size $150-500 (the #22 verdict arm)
+  entry      $100 FAK walk at asks <= min(print + 0.03, 0.95)
+             fee 3%*sh*min(p,1-p); MAX_PER_EVENT=2 concurrent
+Live-only plumbing (never signal): 30-min warmup, worker pool + bounded
+queue (throttle counted), map trims, registry-style settle passes.
+"""
+import json
+import os
+import queue
+import ssl
+import threading
+import time
+import urllib.request
+
+import websocket
+
+WS_URL = "wss://ws-live-data.polymarket.com"
+CLOB = "https://clob.polymarket.com"
+SET_URL = ("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder/"
+           "main/research/params/maker_set.json")
+STATE = os.environ.get("LEAN_STATE", "/data/lean_state.json")
+ATTEMPTS = os.environ.get("LEAN_ATTEMPTS", "/data/lean_attempts.jsonl")
+SETTLES = os.environ.get("LEAN_SETTLES", "/data/lean_settles.jsonl")
+SEM_VER = "n1"                    # bump on ANY semantics-altering change
+
+# ── FROZEN — #22 params + pre-declared execution rule ──────────────────────
+LEAN_USD_MIN = 150.0              # == maker_lean.LEAN_USD
+LEAN_USD_MAX = 500.0              # the #22 follow arm's upper edge
+NET_GROSS = 0.6
+BAND = (0.05, 0.95)
+PREMIUM_CAP = 0.03
+STAKE = 100.0
+FEE_RATE = 0.03
+MAX_PER_EVENT = 2
+# ── LIVE-ONLY plumbing ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+WARMUP_S = 1800
+SET_REFRESH_S = 3600
+BOOK_WORKERS = 4
+BOOK_QUEUE = 16
+CLOB_PASS_CAP = 25
+SETTLED_TRIM = 10000
+SKIPS_TRIM = 500
+INV_TRIM = 20000                  # bounded inventory map
+MAP_IDLE_TRIM_S = 86400
+TOP_LEVELS = 5
+SSL_CTX = ssl._create_unverified_context()
+
+
+def log(m):
+    print(f"{time.strftime('%H:%M:%S')}  {m}", flush=True)
+
+
+def get_json(url, timeout=8):
+    req = urllib.request.Request(url, headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"})
+    with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=timeout, context=SSL_CTX) as r:
+        return json.loads(r.read().decode())
+
+
+def walk_asks(asks, cap, stake_usd=STAKE):
+    """FAK against a CLOB ask list within cap; partial fills kept; top raw
+    levels recorded for offline replays. asks arrive UNSORTED."""
+    lv = sorted(((float(a["price"]), float(a["size"])) for a in asks or []))
+    top = [[p, s] for p, s in lv[:TOP_LEVELS]]
+    if not lv:
+        return {"filled": False, "best_ask": None, "top": top}
+    best = lv[0][0]
+    spent = shares = 0.0
+    levels = 0
+    for pxx, sz in lv:
+        if pxx > cap or spent >= stake_usd - 1e-9:
+            break
+        take = min(sz, (stake_usd - spent) / pxx)
+        if take <= 0:
+            break
+        shares += take
+        spent += take * pxx
+        levels += 1
+    if not shares:
+        return {"filled": False, "best_ask": best, "top": top}
+    return {"filled": True, "vwap": spent / shares, "shares": shares,
+            "usd": spent, "levels": levels, "best_ask": best, "top": top,
+            "partial": spent < stake_usd - 1e-9}
+
+
+def fresh_state():
+    return {
+        "sem_ver": SEM_VER, "boot_ts": int(time.time()),
+        "open": {}, "settled": [], "skips": [],
+        "pnl_realized": 0.0,
+        "counters": {"crossings": 0, "attempts": 0, "fills": 0,
+                     "craters": 0, "premium_skips": 0, "throttle_skip": 0,
+                     "book_fail": 0, "settled_total": 0, "settle_clob": 0,
+                     "skip": {"warmup": 0, "not_in_set": 0, "band_usd": 0,
+                              "band_px": 0, "no_print": 0, "event_cap": 0,
+                              "no_complement": 0, "already_fired": 0}}}
+
+
+class LeanBot:
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.lock = threading.Lock()
+        self.boot = time.time()
+        self.state = fresh_state()
+        if os.path.exists(STATE):
+            try:
+                old = json.load(open(STATE))
+                if old.get("sem_ver") == SEM_VER:
+                    self.state = old
+                    self.state["boot_ts"] = int(time.time())
+                    log(f"state resumed: {len(old.get('open', {}))} open · "
+                        f"{old['counters']['settled_total']} settled")
+                else:
+                    log(f"SEM_VER changed {old.get('sem_ver')}->{SEM_VER} — "
+                        f"fresh state (shakedown clock restarts)")
+            except Exception as e:
+                log(f"state load failed ({e}) — fresh")
+        self.sharps = set()
+        self.set_meta = {}
+        self.set_ts = 0
+        self.inv = {}          # (wallet, asset) -> [net_usd, gross_usd, ts]
+        self.fired = set()     # (wallet, asset, day) already triggered
+        self.last_px = {}      # asset -> (ts, price)
+        self.cond_assets = {}  # cond -> {asset, ...}
+        self.tok_meta = {}     # asset -> (cond, event, title, outcome)
+        self.book_q = queue.Queue(BOOK_QUEUE)
+
+    # ── the screened set (never computed here — published by maker_set.py) ──
+    def refresh_set(self):
+        try:
+            d = get_json(SET_URL, timeout=15)
+            ws = {w.lower() for w in d.get("wallets") or []}
+            if ws:
+                with self.lock:
+                    self.sharps = ws
+                    self.set_meta = {"n": len(ws), "as_of": d.get("as_of"),
+                                     "computed_at": d.get("computed_at")}
+                    self.set_ts = time.time()
+                log(f"maker set: {len(ws)} wallets (as-of "
+                    f"{time.strftime('%F', time.gmtime(d.get('as_of') or 0))})")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ maker set fetch failed: {e}")
+
+    # ── stream ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    def on_trade(self, p):
+        """activity/trades — price marks + token metadata (the orders_matched
+        payload often carries empty conditionId/eventSlug; trades do not)."""
+        a = p.get("asset")
+        if not a:
+            return
+        try:
+            px = float(p.get("price") or 0)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return
+        now = time.time()
+        with self.lock:
+            if 0 < px < 1:
+                self.last_px[a] = (now, px)
+            cond = p.get("conditionId") or ""
+            if cond:
+                self.cond_assets.setdefault(cond, set()).add(a)
+                self.tok_meta[a] = (cond, p.get("eventSlug") or "",
+                                    (p.get("title") or "")[:80],
+                                    p.get("outcome") or "")
+
+    def on_match(self, p):
+        """activity/orders_matched — the MAKER side of every match. Inventory
+        absorbed while quoting, which is the #22 signal substrate."""
+        w = (p.get("proxyWallet") or "").lower()
+        a = p.get("asset")
+        if not w or not a:
+            return
+        try:
+            px = float(p.get("price") or 0)
+            sz = float(p.get("size") or 0)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return
+        if px <= 0 or sz <= 0:
+            return
+        now = time.time()
+        usd = px * sz
+        with self.lock:
+            cond = p.get("conditionId") or ""
+            if cond:
+                self.cond_assets.setdefault(cond, set()).add(a)
+                self.tok_meta.setdefault(a, (cond, p.get("eventSlug") or "",
+                                             (p.get("title") or "")[:80],
+                                             p.get("outcome") or ""))
+            if w not in self.sharps:
+                self.state["counters"]["skip"]["not_in_set"] += 1
+                return
+            key = (w, a)
+            st = self.inv.get(key) or [0.0, 0.0, now]
+            st[0] += usd if p.get("side") == "BUY" else -usd
+            st[1] += usd
+            st[2] = now
+            self.inv[key] = st
+            if len(self.inv) > INV_TRIM:
+                for k in sorted(self.inv, key=lambda k: self.inv[k][2])[:2000]:
+                    del self.inv[k]
+            if time.time() - self.boot < WARMUP_S:
+                self.state["counters"]["skip"]["warmup"] += 1
+                return
+            self._maybe_fire(w, a, st, px, now)
+
+    def _maybe_fire(self, w, a, st, px, now):   # under lock
+        net, gross = st[0], st[1]
+        if gross < 1e-9:
+            return
+        lean_usd = abs(net)
+        if lean_usd < LEAN_USD_MIN or abs(net) / gross < NET_GROSS:
+            return
+        day = int(now // 86400)
+        if (w, a, day) in self.fired:
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["already_fired"] += 1
+            return
+        self.state["counters"]["crossings"] += 1
+        self.fired.add((w, a, day))
+        if lean_usd >= LEAN_USD_MAX:            # follow arm is $150-500
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["band_usd"] += 1
+            return
+        # lean side: net>0 = they are accumulating THIS token; net<0 = they
+        # are net short it, so the lean is the complement token
+        if net > 0:
+            target, lean_px = a, px
+        else:
+            cond = (self.tok_meta.get(a) or ("",))[0]
+            sibs = [x for x in self.cond_assets.get(cond, set()) if x != a]
+            if len(sibs) != 1:
+                self.state["counters"]["skip"]["no_complement"] += 1
+                return
+            target = sibs[0]
+            lean_px = 1 - px
+        lp = self.last_px.get(target)
+        if not lp or now - lp[0] > 3600:
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["no_print"] += 1
+            return
+        print_px = lp[1]
+        if not (BAND[0] <= print_px <= BAND[1]):
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["band_px"] += 1
+            return
+        cond, event, title, outcome = self.tok_meta.get(
+            target, ("", "", "", ""))
+        if event and sum(1 for l in self.state["open"].values()
+                         if l.get("event") == event) >= MAX_PER_EVENT:
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["event_cap"] += 1
+            return
+        job = {"wallet": w, "src_asset": a, "asset": target, "cond": cond,
+               "event": event, "title": title, "outcome": outcome,
+               "lean_usd": round(lean_usd, 2), "net": round(net, 2),
+               "gross": round(gross, 2), "side": 1 if net > 0 else -1,
+               "print": round(print_px, 4), "lean_px": round(lean_px, 4),
+               "ts": round(now, 3)}
+        try:
+            self.book_q.put_nowait(job)
+            self.state["counters"]["attempts"] += 1
+        except queue.Full:
+            self.state["counters"]["throttle_skip"] += 1
+            self._skip(job, "throttle", None)
+            self.log_attempt({**job, "filled": False, "why": "throttle"})
+
+    # ── execution (workers; network OUT of the lock) ───────────────────────
+    def book_worker(self):
+        while True:
+            job = self.book_q.get()
+            try:
+                self.attempt(job)
+            except Exception as e:
+                log(f"⚠ attempt error: {e}")
+                with self.lock:
+                    self.state["counters"]["book_fail"] += 1
+
+    def attempt(self, job):
+        t0 = time.time()
+        try:
+            bk = get_json(f"{CLOB}/book?token_id={job['asset']}")
+        except Exception:
+            with self.lock:
+                self.state["counters"]["book_fail"] += 1
+            return
+        lat_ms = int((time.time() - t0) * 1000)
+        cap = min(job["print"] + PREMIUM_CAP, BAND[1])
+        r = walk_asks(bk.get("asks"), cap)
+        premium = (r["best_ask"] - job["print"]) if r["best_ask"] else None
+        rec = {**job, "latency_ms": lat_ms, "best_ask": r["best_ask"],
+               "premium": round(premium, 4) if premium is not None else None,
+               "top": r["top"], "cap": round(cap, 4), "filled": r["filled"]}
+        with self.lock:
+            c = self.state["counters"]
+            if not r["filled"]:
+                why = "crater" if r["best_ask"] is None else "premium"
+                c["craters" if why == "crater" else "premium_skips"] += 1
+                rec["why"] = why
+                self._skip(job, why, r["best_ask"])
+                log(f"{why.upper()} {job['title'][:34]} print "
+                    f"{job['print']:.2f} ask "
+                    f"{r['best_ask'] if r['best_ask'] is not None else '—'} "
+                    f"(lean ${job['lean_usd']:.0f}, {lat_ms}ms)")
+                self.persist()
+            else:
+                fee = FEE_RATE * r["shares"] * min(r["vwap"], 1 - r["vwap"])
+                lot = {**job, "price": round(r["vwap"], 5),
+                       "best_ask": r["best_ask"], "premium": rec["premium"],
+                       "shares": round(r["shares"], 4),
+                       "cost": round(r["usd"], 2), "fee": round(fee, 4),
+                       "levels": r["levels"], "partial": r["partial"],
+                       "latency_ms": lat_ms}
+                self.state["open"][f"{job['asset']}:{job['ts']}"] = lot
+                c["fills"] += 1
+                rec.update({"price": lot["price"], "shares": lot["shares"],
+                            "usd": lot["cost"], "fee": lot["fee"],
+                            "partial": lot["partial"]})
+                log(f"FILL {job['title'][:34]} @ {lot['price']:.3f} "
+                    f"(print {job['print']:.2f} prem "
+                    f"{rec['premium'] if rec['premium'] is not None else 0:+.3f}"
+                    f", lean ${job['lean_usd']:.0f}, ${lot['cost']:.2f}, "
+                    f"{lat_ms}ms)")
+                self.persist()
+        self.log_attempt(rec)
+
+    def log_attempt(self, rec):
+        try:
+            with open(ATTEMPTS, "a") as fh:
+                fh.write(json.dumps(rec) + "\n")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ attempts log write failed: {e}")
+
+    def _skip(self, job, why, ba):     # under lock
+        self.state["skips"].append(
+            {"ts": int(job["ts"]), "asset": job["asset"], "why": why,
+             "print": job["print"], "ba": ba, "title": job["title"],
+             "lean_usd": job["lean_usd"]})
+        del self.state["skips"][:-SKIPS_TRIM]
+
+    # ── settles: CLOB backstop -> nightly chain truth ──────────────────────
+    def settle_clob_pass(self):
+        with self.lock:
+            now = time.time()
+            due = list(self.state["open"].keys())
+            due.sort(key=lambda lid: self.state["open"][lid].get("clob_ck", 0))
+            due = due[:CLOB_PASS_CAP]
+            snap = {}
+            for lid in due:
+                lot = self.state["open"][lid]
+                lot["clob_ck"] = now
+                snap[lid] = (lot.get("cond"), lot["asset"])
+        verdicts = {}
+        for lid, (cond, asset) in snap.items():
+            if not cond:
+                continue
+            try:
+                m = get_json(f"{CLOB}/markets/{cond}")
+            except Exception:
+                continue
+            if not m.get("closed"):
+                continue
+            for t in m.get("tokens") or []:
+                if str(t.get("token_id")) == str(asset):
+                    verdicts[lid] = 1.0 if t.get("winner") else 0.0
+        if not verdicts:
+            return
+        with self.lock:
+            n = 0
+            for lid, pay in verdicts.items():
+                lot = self.state["open"].get(lid)
+                if lot:
+                    self._settle(lid, lot, pay)
+                    n += 1
+            if n:
+                self.persist()
+
+    def _settle(self, lid, lot, pay):  # under lock
+        pnl = round(lot["shares"] * pay - lot["cost"] - lot["fee"], 2)
+        self.state["pnl_realized"] = round(self.state["pnl_realized"] + pnl, 2)
+        c = self.state["counters"]
+        c["settled_total"] += 1
+        c["settle_clob"] += 1
+        rec = {**lot, "payout": pay, "provisional": True,
+               "settled_ts": int(time.time()), "pnl": pnl}
+        self.state["settled"].append(rec)
+        del self.state["settled"][:-SETTLED_TRIM]
+        del self.state["open"][lid]
+        try:
+            with open(SETTLES, "a") as fh:
+                fh.write(json.dumps(rec) + "\n")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ settles log write failed: {e}")
+        word = "WON" if pay == 1.0 else "refund" if pay == 0.5 else "lost"
+        log(f"SETTLE {word} {lot['title'][:34]} {pnl:+.2f} · "
+            f"realized {self.state['pnl_realized']:+.2f}")
+
+    # ── plumbing ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    def persist(self):
+        tmp = STATE + ".tmp"
+        json.dump(self.state, open(tmp, "w"))
+        os.replace(tmp, STATE)
+
+    def trim_maps(self):               # under lock (minute loop)
+        now = time.time()
+        if len(self.last_px) > 400000:
+            self.last_px = {a: v for a, v in self.last_px.items()
+                            if now - v[0] < MAP_IDLE_TRIM_S}
+        day = int(now // 86400)
+        self.fired = {k for k in self.fired if k[2] >= day - 1}
+
+    def feed_dict(self):               # under lock
+        stt = self.state
+        return {
+            "mode": "paper", "study": "lean (Study C stage-2)",
+            "sem_ver": SEM_VER, "updated": int(time.time()),
+            "boot_ts": stt["boot_ts"],
+            "warmup_left_s": max(0, int(self.boot + WARMUP_S - time.time())),
+            "frozen": {"lean_usd": [LEAN_USD_MIN, LEAN_USD_MAX],
+                       "net_gross": NET_GROSS, "premium_cap": PREMIUM_CAP,
+                       "stake": STAKE, "band": BAND, "fee_rate": FEE_RATE,
+                       "max_per_event": MAX_PER_EVENT},
+            "set": self.set_meta, "set_age_s": int(time.time() - self.set_ts),
+            "tracked_inventories": len(self.inv),
+            "counters": stt["counters"], "pnl_realized": stt["pnl_realized"],
+            "open_n": len(stt["open"]),
+            "open": [{**l, "id": lid}
+                     for lid, l in list(stt["open"].items())[-200:]],
+            "settled": stt["settled"][-200:], "skips": stt["skips"][-100:],
+            "note": "verdict binds to #26; median ask-premium >= 8c over 3 "
+                    "days is the observational kill-switch (graded nightly "
+                    "from the attempts stream)"}
+
+
+SUB = json.dumps({"action": "subscribe", "subscriptions": [
+    {"topic": "activity", "type": "trades", "filters": ""},
+    {"topic": "activity", "type": "orders_matched", "filters": ""}]})
+
+
+def run_conn(tag, bot):
+    backoff = 2
+    while True:
+        state = {"fresh": time.time()}
+
+        def on_open(ws):
+            ws.send(SUB)
+            state["fresh"] = time.time()
+            log(f"ws[{tag}]: connected")
+
+            def ping():
+                while ws.keep_running:
+                    time.sleep(5)
+                    try:
+                        ws.send('{"action":"ping"}')
+                    except Exception:
+                        break
+                    if time.time() - state["fresh"] > 20:
+                        try:
+                            ws.close()
+                        except Exception:
+                            pass
+                        break
+            threading.Thread(target=ping, daemon=True).start()
+
+        def on_message(ws, raw):
+            state["fresh"] = time.time()
+            try:
+                m = json.loads(raw)
+            except Exception:
+                return
+            if m.get("topic") != "activity":
+                return
+            try:
+                if m.get("type") == "trades":
+                    bot.on_trade(m.get("payload") or {})
+                elif m.get("type") == "orders_matched":
+                    bot.on_match(m.get("payload") or {})
+            except Exception as e:
+                log(f"⚠ on_message error: {e}")
+
+        try:
+            app = websocket.WebSocketApp(WS_URL, on_open=on_open,
+                                         on_message=on_message)
+            app.run_forever(sslopt={"cert_reqs": ssl.CERT_NONE})
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"ws[{tag}]: {str(e)[:60]}")
+        time.sleep(backoff + (1 if tag == "b" else 0))
+        backoff = min(backoff * 2, 30)
+        if time.time() - state["fresh"] < 60:
+            backoff = 2
+
+
+def serve_feed(bot, port=8080):
+    from http.server import BaseHTTPRequestHandler, ThreadingHTTPServer
+
+    class H(BaseHTTPRequestHandler):
+        def log_message(self, *a):
+            pass
+
+        def do_GET(self):
+            if self.path.split("?")[0] != "/feed":
+                self.send_response(404)
+                self.end_headers()
+                return
+            with bot.lock:
+                body = json.dumps(bot.feed_dict()).encode()
+            self.send_response(200)
+            self.send_header("Content-Type", "application/json")
+            self.send_header("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
+            self.send_header("Cache-Control", "no-store")
+            self.send_header("Content-Length", str(len(body)))
+            self.end_headers()
+            self.wfile.write(body)
+
+    ThreadingHTTPServer(("0.0.0.0", port), H).serve_forever()
+
+
+def selftest():
+    """Boot gate — hard exit on failure."""
+    bot = LeanBot.__new__(LeanBot)
+    bot.state = fresh_state()
+    bot.lock = threading.Lock()
+    bot.boot = time.time() - WARMUP_S - 1
+    bot.sharps = {"0xsharp"}
+    bot.set_meta, bot.set_ts = {}, time.time()
+    bot.inv, bot.fired = {}, set()
+    bot.last_px, bot.cond_assets, bot.tok_meta = {}, {}, {}
+    bot.book_q = queue.Queue(4)
+    jobs = []
+    bot.book_q.put_nowait = lambda j: jobs.append(j)   # capture, no network
+
+    def mk(w, a, side, px, sz, cond="c1"):
+        return {"proxyWallet": w, "asset": a, "side": side, "price": px,
+                "size": sz, "conditionId": cond, "eventSlug": "ev1",
+                "title": "T", "outcome": "X"}
+    bot.on_trade({"asset": "tokA", "price": 0.30, "conditionId": "c1",
+                  "eventSlug": "ev1", "title": "T", "outcome": "X"})
+    bot.on_trade({"asset": "tokB", "price": 0.70, "conditionId": "c1",
+                  "eventSlug": "ev1", "title": "T", "outcome": "Y"})
+    # not in set -> ignored
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xrando", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 2000))
+    assert not jobs, "non-set wallet fired"
+    # in set, sub-threshold ($60) -> no fire
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 200))
+    assert not jobs, "sub-threshold fired"
+    # crosses $150 one-sided -> fires on tokA
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 400))
+    assert len(jobs) == 1, f"expected 1 job, got {len(jobs)}"
+    assert jobs[0]["asset"] == "tokA" and jobs[0]["side"] == 1
+    assert jobs[0]["print"] == 0.30, jobs[0]["print"]
+    # same (wallet, token, day) cannot fire twice
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 400))
+    assert len(jobs) == 1, "re-fired same day"
+    # net-short lean routes to the complement token
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokB", "SELL", 0.70, 400))
+    assert len(jobs) == 2 and jobs[1]["asset"] == "tokA", jobs[1]
+    assert jobs[1]["side"] == -1
+    # over the $500 band edge -> counted, no job
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokZ", "BUY", 0.50, 4000))
+    assert len(jobs) == 2, "over-band fired"
+    assert bot.state["counters"]["skip"]["band_usd"] == 1
+    # walk_asks: cap respected, partials kept
+    r = walk_asks([{"price": 0.33, "size": 100}, {"price": 0.40, "size": 900}],
+                  0.33)
+    assert r["filled"] and abs(r["usd"] - 33.0) < 1e-6 and r["partial"], r
+    r2 = walk_asks([{"price": 0.99, "size": 10}], 0.33)
+    assert not r2["filled"] and r2["best_ask"] == 0.99, r2
+    assert WARMUP_S >= 60, "warmup must exceed a burst window"
+    log("selftest OK")
+
+
+def main():
+    selftest()
+    bot = LeanBot()
+    bot.refresh_set()
+    if not bot.sharps:
+        log("⚠ no maker set yet — idling until the nightly publishes one")
+    threading.Thread(target=serve_feed, args=(bot,), daemon=True).start()
+    for i in range(BOOK_WORKERS):
+        threading.Thread(target=bot.book_worker, daemon=True).start()
+    for tag in ("a", "b"):
+        threading.Thread(target=run_conn, args=(tag, bot), daemon=True).start()
+    tick = 0
+    while True:
+        time.sleep(60)
+        tick += 1
+        try:
+            if time.time() - bot.set_ts > SET_REFRESH_S:
+                bot.refresh_set()
+            if tick % 2 == 0:
+                bot.settle_clob_pass()
+            with bot.lock:
+                bot.trim_maps()
+                if tick % 5 == 0:
+                    bot.persist()
+                c = bot.state["counters"]
+                log(f"paper pnl {bot.state['pnl_realized']:+.2f} · open "
+                    f"{len(bot.state['open'])} · cross {c['crossings']} "
+                    f"att {c['attempts']} fill {c['fills']} "
+                    f"prem-skip {c['premium_skips']} crat {c['craters']} · "
+                    f"inv {len(bot.inv)} · set {len(bot.sharps)} · "
+                    f"settled {c['settled_total']}")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ loop error: {e}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

research/maker_set.py

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Publish the walk-forward screened maker-sharp set for wwf-leanbot (#26).
+
+The bot must NEVER screen on its own live data — that is how a study
+starts selecting the wallets that happened to win during its own window.
+So the set is computed here, on tape strictly BEFORE today, exactly as
+maker_lean.py's screen_asof does (the frozen #22 method), and published
+to research/params/maker_set.json for the box to fetch.
+
+Wired into nightly.sh before the graders. Same contract as
+informed_set.py (surgebot's input): committed file = frozen input.
+"""
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+import time
+
+HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
+sys.path.insert(0, HERE)
+import tape                                    # noqa: E402
+import maker_lean as ml                        # noqa: E402
+
+OUT = os.path.join(HERE, "params", "maker_set.json")
+
+
+def main():
+    db = tape.connect()
+    # midnight UTC today — the set may only see strictly-prior tape
+    t_cut = int(time.time() // 86400) * 86400
+    sharps = ml.screen_asof(db, t_cut)
+    db.close()
+    out = {
+        "computed_at": int(time.time()),
+        "as_of": t_cut,
+        "method": "maker_lean.screen_asof (z>=2.5, >=6 resolved maker bets, "
+                  "pnl>0) on orders_matched strictly before as_of",
+        "frozen_params": {"lean_usd": [ml.LEAN_USD, 500.0],
+                          "net_gross": ml.NET_GROSS, "band": list(ml.BAND)},
+        "n": len(sharps),
+        "wallets": sorted(sharps),
+    }
+    os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(OUT), exist_ok=True)
+    tmp = OUT + ".tmp"
+    json.dump(out, open(tmp, "w"), indent=1)
+    os.replace(tmp, OUT)
+    print(f"[maker_set] {len(sharps)} wallets as-of "
+          f"{time.strftime('%F', time.gmtime(t_cut))} -> params/maker_set.json",
+          flush=True)
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())

research/nightly.sh

@@ -22,9 +22,30 @@ POLL_S=900
 # run: exit 1 + a stale lock that would have skipped every future night).
 LOCK="$(pwd)/.nightly.lock.d"
 if ! mkdir "$LOCK" 2>/dev/null; then
-  echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) already running — skip" >> forward.log
-  exit 0
+  # STALE-LOCK GUARD (2026-07-27): a killed run (pause, crash, reboot) can
+  # leave the dir behind — the EXIT trap never fires on SIGKILL — and every
+  # later night then skips SILENTLY. Trust the recorded PID: if it is gone,
+  # the lock is debris, so take it over.
+  OWNER=$(cat "$LOCK/pid" 2>/dev/null)
+  if [ -n "$OWNER" ]; then
+    if kill -0 "$OWNER" 2>/dev/null; then
+      echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) already running (pid $OWNER) — skip" >> forward.log
+      exit 0
+    fi
+    echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) STALE lock (pid $OWNER gone) — taking over" >> forward.log
+  else
+    # No pid file = a lock from before this guard existed (or a crash between
+    # mkdir and the write). Do NOT assume stale — that ran two nightlies at
+    # once on 2026-07-27. Age it out instead: 6h is longer than any real run.
+    AGE=$(( $(date +%s) - $(stat -f %m "$LOCK" 2>/dev/null || echo 0) ))
+    if [ "$AGE" -lt 21600 ]; then
+      echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) lock held (no pid, age ${AGE}s < 6h) — skip" >> forward.log
+      exit 0
+    fi
+    echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) STALE lock (no pid, age ${AGE}s) — taking over" >> forward.log
+  fi
 fi
+echo $$ > "$LOCK/pid"
 trap 'rmdir "$LOCK"' EXIT
 
 tape_age() {
@@ -52,14 +73,17 @@ done
 
 "$PY" forward.py >> forward.log 2>&1
 "$PY" informed_set.py >> forward.log 2>&1     # surge harness reads this daily
+"$PY" maker_set.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true       # leanbot input (#26)
 "$PY" grade_surge.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true   # A2 measurement -> chain truth
 "$PY" surge_book_replay.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true  # virtual $100/5% book
 "$PY" grade_oracle.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true  # oracle paper -> chain truth
 "$PY" grade_lag.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true      # lead-lag paper -> chain truth
+"$PY" grade_lean.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true     # maker-lean paper -> chain truth
 "$PY" meta_snap.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true     # market metadata (local gz)
 
 cd ..
 git add research/forward_ledger.jsonl research/params/informed_set.json \
+        research/lean_paper_ledger.jsonl research/params/maker_set.json \
         research/surge_paper_ledger.jsonl research/oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl research/lag_paper_ledger.jsonl \
         research/surge_meas_ledger.jsonl research/surge_book.json 2>/dev/null
 if ! git diff --cached --quiet; then

research/params/informed_set.json

@@ -1,157 +1,157 @@
 {
- "generated_at": 1784819417,
- "as_of_tape_ts": 1784815198,
+ "generated_at": 1785274274,
+ "as_of_tape_ts": 1785257999,
  "method": "study_flow.informed_set FROZEN (top_n=150, z>=2.5, n>=6)",
  "wallets": [
   "0xda770326bd091d26f816917aa83a6baff668683f",
   "0x893575c7d99542163c6b6e8a0fe5af0b6d217daa",
   "0xa9f5e5c9c761a0c7d692ba479028f778a5dd937f",
   "0xc4fe817476491890086330a639ac417d51bf601f",
-  "0xc7d02944a76b9f83b199e9090ecc92c82d241f8a",
   "0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea",
-  "0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14",
+  "0xc7d02944a76b9f83b199e9090ecc92c82d241f8a",
   "0xfe787d2da716d60e8acff57fb87eb13cd4d10319",
-  "0x945a49252f772a10c6ddd1d1e1e24ee20438a48c",
   "0xdbdd45150249e229eb4ca8aa48a30dca21faa5de",
+  "0x945a49252f772a10c6ddd1d1e1e24ee20438a48c",
   "0xdb83e85ffd22faa4009273034770f96ffc5b1e50",
-  "0xc29198ad764bd6adaf7bb971a3757a689ece5d74",
+  "0x1cdd071bb612de6d66d0c882b676c663697de595",
   "0xe91171f655be1568e4c63f29663c0028649e3d4e",
-  "0x076daa87c4fe1a85402a9b6b8e0a866224388d4c",
   "0x0d2d845a6ff64e31e04a70afce8a573940767ff5",
-  "0x2f26606ccc45a934838a97d44a30c32012ae0d8f",
-  "0x592997c2d8119d82d71f21119957c6434d244684",
+  "0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14",
   "0xf1f2b3c6c5bea42a6664fe3a8395addc1ab28c8d",
+  "0xa951006f1ce68498c1aef9b013880459e6e08a2f",
   "0x904ed7c7820a434ea9b11e7333ed69190d850bec",
   "0x200ffb575b936d297fcf39076ddf2b476ae07a96",
-  "0xd9c9651bfd445b2cddf750662ee79a755f216686",
-  "0x14e72e19ea2f6e2be41504dd3268184ebe5fa32c",
-  "0xa951006f1ce68498c1aef9b013880459e6e08a2f",
-  "0xa6db8383b756f1e58c504ff4179e19427dd73155",
-  "0x03bf6d028f9bbc44a8b90d4b195ecbfe54c324b9",
-  "0x34045be5c902268d74219ebfe7caa347cfae10d2",
-  "0x67af214764bd6eda61fadb25cdcbea6d13d761ee",
   "0x2e3c40fa47b27c676ddd573064162f57d51508ba",
-  "0x47138dc1eef25f1ea91f3b2fda0e0f455c634d21",
-  "0x0c99d9f172fc4c25fd2aa92f9fc272da5f020c88",
-  "0xa3c2ec158f222f3f4f5f4f57b113d761a4d3df3d",
-  "0x489d3df3601288940f89d56b5642b0951129f6e3",
-  "0x67011de1721bd8af42522c8eacbb4c52d518d7d2",
-  "0x521070c99db06e54af5e8e4a91d6858decdfbd53",
-  "0x2a69660046d7acc4ab204d7cc5ba78b0776cd2f7",
-  "0xbe0c69b37d57a0e2f171b606adab285e56fec0cd",
-  "0x0ec7f0eac6c47934ab9b41e02bd8f15a5f4293d1",
-  "0x5d634050ad89f172afb340437ed3170eaa2c9075",
-  "0x84ad9c5c547a82ec9a08547b94bd922446e5bfb7",
-  "0x77de6e0a24dc57a4345c987eb061d46eb6e5e67a",
-  "0x14f3cee5d890a61fe427407f340d190eab7a0796",
-  "0x47c9014f76660cd2efe17c1f5ea342fd12cd2038",
-  "0x60ec17443af511a21945f01430e61c803465f7b0",
-  "0xe8e086f7ef06af27889edfb5026e1453c61d7eec",
-  "0xbfd770b7ff07fb2ece41b0e7c593db65a84cf0bf",
-  "0xa509ae942ac8d8bc3f8c5df30cb6ae2c9b13ae46",
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-  "0xebff466d6070548b13a432d7583e9fa5bce870e5",
-  "0x7ddeb72e6b8726b146d085c20a90bb64158030b1",
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   "0x48363a6cd08b9602e9f2e0523c4f9a89d4c4859b",
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   "0xf504d6bcf88d485d21f65398b9deb04d92180111",
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   "0xadfb6cba33cebca02eab6111ace1e3924b9cc2ef",
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-  "0xa032d2358fa08860ba30ba8e8d828b7738202090",
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-  "0xd5a32eba30f8baa08c3f12880ff6525f926d5b70",
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   "0x94d22bf045f9a1d1cb37a40a4a8c86fd8917cfbd",
-  "0x80d8dddcfdc075eb70f6d2d774a27bfb255ab703",
-  "0xbb8ef6381e4a35b4124584cfce1c73137e2508c1",
   "0xf1ee4842fa0c7283632185e42577027452d4519c",
+  "0x505f23d257d23e4a1ec37ff9bca7c88f3bf0645e",
+  "0x52d93dcf81444f793dda7fedc370f7a35101fb1a",
+  "0x6d3c5bd13984b2de47c3a88ddc455309aab3d294",
   "0xc75b0390b025086df22363d6c22602506c3b3ea7",
-  "0x37c1ff27d21b08d1cae9f38453b895eae2a78de1",
-  "0x2126c12a2eb40b10acd1d1d0bda4cea42d58aeeb",
-  "0xb91cdd2b03d05f67db8ed560fb56cca7f668ed66",
-  "0x747fda2528435ab2719fdc36d07b4248af61f2d7",
-  "0x5268527977f700f9bf9b6d5cd843859e4e70135d",
-  "0x83d9a38fbf2265d1a092499a964412dd44e810d9",
-  "0x77bcf759a5bbbf604a52d839d5f68ead4c78b91b",
-  "0xa3b48b1e1e3c44c2c8181092206f65f29bce88df",
-  "0x2c475c09b18fa388f3c60cacef6e7221b00b47f5",
-  "0x237f21a15396d2e56c7ca5f74cfbc6af9dade76e",
-  "0xeda9da7fe9a6992128f5008ddbd7156cef74f624",
-  "0x7a5d94f83ff0195387eaf9f4463433d03eda54db",
-  "0x26c283df72be6f746b6acd37b7b06ff89da60cdf",
-  "0x19e5e4bd692fea0b868aa1b57ab4bd5a86a0dd71",
-  "0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318",
-  "0xc1fd8001916292efc9343e2d555bb67e9edb10cc",
-  "0x0df758f3a438f88d9b98da42ab76cd585a101ec1",
-  "0x1cae27a4deb610229d264199b655f2b1a4d5d01c",
-  "0xeea3f08e8a36081233e4c4b4142fd61a7b56a6a2",
-  "0xbac4ab50a9059b89131cf7bad38bb12c031586db",
-  "0xde9f7f4e77a1595623ceb58e469f776257ccd43c",
-  "0x7d0caf83488431bb760f204d52bdf5246e2fa3b7",
-  "0x83182e6abe7101f2084eef8d570ebdfc66dc34a6",
+  "0x9d94f602535e518ee1cb6aade0ca9569f1b1017d",
+  "0x7d0e41915dd94259bbe9dae12d33b1c26d304f01",
   "0x4f29e103339919c4baaea2a60195cf1c8bb27a7e",
-  "0x91ac00e15e85a986f4d3d035e3d9b1b4ac435ff3",
-  "0x56cc7a163d7a56134a394b76abaa47c7bdcad589",
+  "0x7ddeb72e6b8726b146d085c20a90bb64158030b1",
+  "0xa3b48b1e1e3c44c2c8181092206f65f29bce88df",
+  "0x8d0c8253703b8febbe53f45d182671c5385dc90a",
+  "0xeda9da7fe9a6992128f5008ddbd7156cef74f624",
+  "0xbe0a86f399d6e690d37e9471ea0b9375a89fb267",
+  "0xe83abacce6bf35b11b8de4c890ea4bf19d218355",
+  "0xbafd69a6c38f9887a6ec6923a2318ee1a6884898",
+  "0x98db8cca55c32b24cfb414b5b43d273f4e1fdd17",
+  "0xbb8ef6381e4a35b4124584cfce1c73137e2508c1",
+  "0x162147bf9d4588675de814fce9ce36d3b2c0f040",
+  "0x5b6e80132e843cb8570ee93e448f05f40ef3f544",
+  "0x26c283df72be6f746b6acd37b7b06ff89da60cdf",
+  "0xe29c038d6eacea4c98d7c39cd2583e940b28a31d",
+  "0xff34c2cc46e7624310f3549ea355540d57a4694b",
+  "0x80d8dddcfdc075eb70f6d2d774a27bfb255ab703",
+  "0x664a25f165a0150ce687410470f3352f5783fc5f",
+  "0xbe0c69b37d57a0e2f171b606adab285e56fec0cd",
+  "0x717990979ff84a32d47205a7eede94317aab7d79",
   "0x5d346a9488fa7a91dc13f16bf48131783b2fd7b5",
-  "0x629da223adfc9957329e02de95ae3d263f92756c",
-  "0xab95bd5536bd7f8117bcbfead5050b35af486c79",
-  "0xfb0c8b014cc976a606e924b5fc4a93b31fd98c72",
-  "0x5c18d1f705989046f5106d64a0cb34d5deb02f76",
-  "0xea6fa510b4609ffc1588a1b3ca217c5c999a6572",
-  "0x32b484581fc5606de9c1e43af4636b6be9bc8b21",
-  "0x4126330ba61224a3b265921fcdea1adc50d6e68b",
-  "0xc62fc154efd70e3a7991726c4eef6118566c1781",
-  "0x35e701f088b6ef25fff6b902769c1cd8b85f8331",
-  "0x5b8990db8c1304d56cf8466e443b5e50a47f23fb",
-  "0xa1a77ea9382bb8c3610f3303b66e093f644aace4",
-  "0x1a59d3f300b446d78a42941ab1b71dd61273a57e",
-  "0x0db98a11b12ab30fc1e43ea9c9b63df50849a4a8",
-  "0x5fe0ff9fda392aa72aa945843f3ebcd8b83dcc67",
-  "0x2e0bf01211c2bc155b930ffeb06b67b97dd11435",
-  "0x64d4c540211c48ce4cb7b853ffcb0df2b438f056",
-  "0x2b358a81a9aa4904fad6981ae9ad62e52fe10bfe",
-  "0x3a855ba8cdce3fce20ddf6c2867c4889cfa1e543",
-  "0x4a5147d7af926edc3054c2e4cfe9becd36c14ef6",
-  "0x98883c610e4400dd998f81cf41658d51ff06e6fe",
-  "0xb7ab821f037a4c8deb9b23b8001a4be985d116d0",
-  "0x1cdd071bb612de6d66d0c882b676c663697de595",
   "0xedf72350cc1d1fc9b02186f33a19a27108e24003",
-  "0x1a9eb0213ca31d612381841bd6159071aab1a24b",
-  "0x3d3bbf5d4855ea12fbc610b4c2b49438ace728bd",
-  "0xfb07f48542d2b655e9d0bf1cc92a8a6feee8e2cc",
-  "0x125a733601a947640cd928d4fd1bd5ddb841df71",
-  "0x1df231bd33dae91463e1682927e8096b82c289a0",
-  "0x2ad531734533078236780a5acda36d91037a62ff",
-  "0x93078b5dd1c34d0f288d2f51b23f1347520d9da3",
-  "0x273d0a3b3e0652465ee8baf8b30c1acad8befb63",
-  "0x209f44d8e117c9bc443a3cadae55e6ccc9cb0eb4",
+  "0x35e701f088b6ef25fff6b902769c1cd8b85f8331",
+  "0x19e5e4bd692fea0b868aa1b57ab4bd5a86a0dd71",
+  "0x83d9a38fbf2265d1a092499a964412dd44e810d9",
+  "0xc846f5368ab49a854d2280b7ecff92669824c413",
+  "0x5c18d1f705989046f5106d64a0cb34d5deb02f76",
+  "0x0db98a11b12ab30fc1e43ea9c9b63df50849a4a8",
+  "0x237f21a15396d2e56c7ca5f74cfbc6af9dade76e",
+  "0x77bcf759a5bbbf604a52d839d5f68ead4c78b91b",
+  "0xde9f7f4e77a1595623ceb58e469f776257ccd43c",
+  "0xe01069845e5f21c1cd1b438087f5badb24f65147",
+  "0xb91cdd2b03d05f67db8ed560fb56cca7f668ed66",
+  "0x789c0d48c4ff22a306223f0713cf3a0d5e420d10",
+  "0x5268527977f700f9bf9b6d5cd843859e4e70135d",
+  "0xb7ab821f037a4c8deb9b23b8001a4be985d116d0",
+  "0xc1fd8001916292efc9343e2d555bb67e9edb10cc",
+  "0x7d0caf83488431bb760f204d52bdf5246e2fa3b7",
+  "0x54e00a1ceb7f3b7c0bd240d1deeb0edb6b0eb02c",
+  "0x4126330ba61224a3b265921fcdea1adc50d6e68b",
+  "0xfb8edbc409120f8dbab8df8e723037e0fe773dc3",
+  "0x6683015d89998282a0d9be2570bf1e1471d38b7e",
+  "0x56cc7a163d7a56134a394b76abaa47c7bdcad589",
+  "0x629da223adfc9957329e02de95ae3d263f92756c",
+  "0xeea3f08e8a36081233e4c4b4142fd61a7b56a6a2",
   "0x147c2760baa011fdcd0d02ea0f610ffb0fd92540",
-  "0x7d9a514f9da9e8aa7fa37306943c7d1720d805e6",
+  "0x91ac00e15e85a986f4d3d035e3d9b1b4ac435ff3",
+  "0x5fe0ff9fda392aa72aa945843f3ebcd8b83dcc67",
+  "0x50e53a797b6b889c5bbe19fcc7bd7f9eb9ede39f",
+  "0x42c99f38d2b951b0dc8e8bd5371fa80c9dd19623",
+  "0xc39969c3ccce23cb870f4fffd92e88cba04f53ab",
+  "0xc2bec11a79567ea92f7c5dfa6587eadaede6af12",
+  "0x0df758f3a438f88d9b98da42ab76cd585a101ec1",
+  "0x8d10b39465225d7a881b56b4af8354997f0c940a",
+  "0x473200f1e5aaa65fd8206570ec3b597a6fc5f40d",
+  "0x37c1ff27d21b08d1cae9f38453b895eae2a78de1",
+  "0x64d4c540211c48ce4cb7b853ffcb0df2b438f056",
+  "0x365f951dc281322d83f6fcda884c7f66a938706a",
+  "0x1cae27a4deb610229d264199b655f2b1a4d5d01c",
   "0xfd3e6449d0c1e807501dcc17c0d9447201f35a7a",
-  "0x99d4291db7710e216a8b8f95323385442cc47c0d",
-  "0xd03450276d4aa4069ce11bac4cfb1683a724eece"
+  "0x2b358a81a9aa4904fad6981ae9ad62e52fe10bfe",
+  "0x048fcd7c2b21f9b84c25eeebc142bd5ae0209992",
+  "0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318",
+  "0x9e20c1016cfdf518c84aa398d64bf9b2277a5cf9",
+  "0x84d4f0a864c647b88635c0e299da30d7606377a9",
+  "0x6485f47d0344c03eb4340f985159f6eb2dcba265",
+  "0xbac4ab50a9059b89131cf7bad38bb12c031586db",
+  "0x3a855ba8cdce3fce20ddf6c2867c4889cfa1e543",
+  "0x747fda2528435ab2719fdc36d07b4248af61f2d7",
+  "0xdc4f58a48ed4467743609fdce11eea483c759804",
+  "0x01c78f8873c0c86d6b6b92ff627e3802237ee995",
+  "0x976adbd06fa70877d9e11a732e549f0e4214e8ec",
+  "0x98883c610e4400dd998f81cf41658d51ff06e6fe",
+  "0x325f0e5b5afc66ff54102d850f67f0c621304511"
  ]
 }

research/sharp_halflife.py

@@ -21,7 +21,23 @@ SIGNAL decay, not our execution (T3/T11 own execution).
 Outputs: EV/bet by age-in-set bucket (0-2d / 3-6d / 7-13d / 14d+),
 pooled AND per-wallet-day mean-of-means (concentration guard), plus the
 survival curve (fraction of detected wallets still published at age k).
-NOT pre-registered — informs a rotation policy for the follow set."""
+NOT pre-registered — informs a rotation policy for the follow set.
+
+VERDICT (2026-07-27, cached-only grading, COVERAGE 14%): NO EDGE DECAY.
+EV/bet by age-in-set: 0-2d +$13.75 (n=867) · 3-6d +$17.97 (n=839) ·
+7-13d +$22.24 (n=1,569) · 14d+ +$19.81 (n=2,406) — the FRESHEST bucket
+is the weakest and edge holds past two weeks. Set against the survival
+curve (49% of detections gone within 1 day, 11% at 28d), the churn is
+THRESHOLD JITTER around the z-cutoff, not wallets going stale.
+=> Do NOT build an age-based rotation rule; age is not a decay signal.
+Caveats: 14% coverage (cached chain truth only — rises on its own as
+other nightlies fill the payouts cache; rerun later to confirm) and
+top-5 wallets carry 44% of the pooled total.
+
+METHOD NOTE: ensure() over every cond these wallets ever touched was a
+TREADMILL (84k conds, RPC-bound, count grows daily) — five runs across
+five days never finished it. Cached-only + honest coverage answered the
+same question in minutes. Pass --ensure to crawl the tail anyway."""
 import collections
 import json
 import os
@@ -120,14 +136,29 @@ def main():
           flush=True)
 
     import payouts
+    # CACHED-ONLY grading (2026-07-27): ensure() over every cond these
+    # wallets ever touched is a TREADMILL — 84k conds, RPC-bound, and the
+    # count grows daily as they keep betting; five runs across five days
+    # never finished it. The question ("does edge decay after detection")
+    # does not need every historical bet: it needs an unbiased sample of
+    # post-detection ones. So grade what chain truth is ALREADY cached and
+    # report coverage; the cache fills from every other nightly anyway, so
+    # coverage rises on its own without a dedicated crawl.
     conds = sorted({b[1] for b in bets if b[1]})
-    print(f"ensuring {len(conds)} conds against chain…", flush=True)
-    payouts.ensure(conds)
+    if "--ensure" in sys.argv:
+        print(f"ensuring {len(conds)} conds against chain…", flush=True)
+        payouts.ensure(conds)
+    else:
+        print(f"cached-only grading over {len(conds)} conds "
+              f"(pass --ensure to crawl the uncached tail)", flush=True)
 
     per_bucket = {tag: [] for _, _, tag in BUCKETS}
     per_wd = {tag: collections.defaultdict(list) for _, _, tag in BUCKETS}
     graded = skipped = 0
     for w, cond, asset, p, ts in bets:
+        if ts is None or p is None:        # cache rows with no entry time
+            skipped += 1
+            continue
         if ts // 86400 < det_n[w]:
             continue                    # pre-detection bet
         pay = payouts.truth(cond, asset)
@@ -142,8 +173,11 @@ def main():
                 per_bucket[tag].append(ev)
                 per_wd[tag][(w, int(ts // 86400))].append(ev)
                 break
+    cov = 100 * graded / max(1, graded + skipped)
     print(f"chain-graded post-detection bets: {graded} "
-          f"(ungraded/refund skipped: {skipped})\n", flush=True)
+          f"(ungraded/refund skipped: {skipped}) · COVERAGE {cov:.0f}%"
+          f"{'  ⚠ low — treat buckets as indicative' if cov < 50 else ''}\n",
+          flush=True)
 
     print("EV BY AGE-IN-SET (per $100 at the wallet's own entry, feeless):",
           flush=True)

research/surge_book.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
- "computed_at": "2026-07-23 15:13 UTC",
+ "computed_at": "2026-07-28 21:31 UTC",
  "spec": {
   "bank": 100.0,
   "stake_pct": 0.05,
@@ -9,22 +9,22 @@
   "slip_cap": 0.05
  },
  "sem_ver_source": "a2 attempts stream",
- "equity": 125.85,
- "cash": 1.44,
- "open_n": 24,
- "settled": 46,
- "wins": 29,
- "losses": 17,
- "pnl_realized": 28.27,
- "chain_graded_settles": 46,
+ "equity": 60.83,
+ "cash": 3.57,
+ "open_n": 12,
+ "settled": 164,
+ "wins": 94,
+ "losses": 70,
+ "pnl_realized": -37.94,
+ "chain_graded_settles": 164,
  "counters": {
-  "attempts_seen": 2692,
-  "taken": 70,
-  "cash_skip": 2340,
-  "event_skip": 128,
-  "open_skip": 134,
-  "crater": 20,
-  "open_unresolved": 24
+  "attempts_seen": 12863,
+  "taken": 176,
+  "cash_skip": 11522,
+  "event_skip": 544,
+  "open_skip": 574,
+  "crater": 47,
+  "open_unresolved": 12
  },
  "curve": [
   [
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    131.18
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    125.85
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 }