Feed builder enriches open bet records with end_ts via the cached
_market lookup — one fetch per position lifetime, <=8 per publish pass,
fetched-but-unknown marked to prevent refetch loops. No execution-path
change; both dashboards render it under the LIVE pill with the
in-play-resolves-earlier tooltip.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2,191 episodes (400 highest-volume event/outcome groups, name-matched
semantics only): follower drift +4.12c mean in leader direction at +5m
(43% >+2c vs 17% adverse; p50=0 — thin siblings often don't print).
Tradable leg chain-true: n=2,028 · EV +$9.73/$100 buying the follower at
its last print in the leader's direction. STATED OPTIMISM: stale-print
entry (the T4 lesson — prints are not books); resting asks may have
repriced without printing. Stage-2 = execution realism (live book reads
or a paper scanner leg). Theme with T6: edge lives where repricing is
SLOW — the far side of the requote wall.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Incumbent census (volume-ranked): industrialized niche — top harvester
$3.2M vol/5,854 buys at +2.27% per ~4h hold; several ~$1M at +2.4-3.4%;
two big operators NEGATIVE (-3%) — residual risk is real, top-5 share
only 20%. Bucket returns (+6.2%/90-95c etc) are UPPER bounds: $129M of
high-price buys sit on non-tape-resolved tokens where upsets linger.
Verdict: park at our capital scale (pennies on idle cash); revisit as an
idle-cash overlay once nightly chain coverage closes the bias, or if
bankroll grows 10x.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
98 chain-graded misses. The useful inversion: crater_reject misses were
GOOD misses (-$7.74/-$6.32 per $100 both books) — unfillable entries were
adversely selected, consistent with the week's winner's-curse theme, and
puts a question mark on the 07-20 requote-retry's EV (follow-up: score
retry outcomes). Everything else outlier-dominated at n<=21/bucket (one
+1567% longshot carries depth_thin); no filter changes warranted. Ledger
deepens daily — maker-window expiries now feed it.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
9,165 chain-graded leans, 3 walk-forward days, as-of screening (no
self-selection). FOLLOW +$2.51/lean pooled (59% hit @ 58c avg), positive
ALL THREE days (+1.60/+2.20/+3.60) — day-consistency the surge signal
never had under truth. Size structure tells the mechanism: $150-500
leans FOLLOW +$2.90 (absorbed retail flow = signal); $2k+ leans FOLLOW
-$1.73 / FADE +$13.38 n=422 (whale bags = makers getting picked off).
Caveats: last-print entry optimism, thin vs the fee hurdle as taker
(maker-entry execution is the natural pairing), $2k+ fade cell needs an
event-concentration check before pre-registration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
User-directed flip 2026-07-23 (ahead of the Friday read; the user go is
the gate, per both pre-registrations). Maker entries: GTC at the sharp's
price, 60s registry TTL, no chase. Hold-through: mirrored exits ignored
and ledgered to copybot_ignored_exits[.live].jsonl as the live
counterfactual. Verdict bars unchanged: #20 keep/revert at n>=30 resolved
(fill>=70% or ROI>=parity edge / revert fill<55%@40, ROI<=0@30); #21
keep/revert at n>=30 resolved ignored-exits (hold>=mirror / revert
-$50@30 or 25% attributable DD).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
FINDINGS: 'The fill model is the next scorer' section (A2 chain grade
-$7.54/fill x1344 confirms the surge kill; oracle harness chain grade
vetoes the ledger-positive tiers; virtual-book +26% variance footnote;
the five tandem tests and the makers-on-the-wall through-line).
HANDOFF: snapshot -> 07-23 (7-wallet rev 5, dark flags, Friday agenda
incl #20/#21). READMEs: /test consolidation row, measurement-harness
research row, study statuses + new script inventory.
Archive: value/ (closed 07-19) + its test, ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md,
order_probe v1 -> archive/; replay_out/ gitignored; links repaired.
Tests: all 7 active scripts pass post-move.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
entry_mode=maker (#20): GTC limit at the sharp's own price via
place_limit_order; live bids park in the pending registry with
maker_ttl_s=60 (registry-side cancel — venue GTD needs >=3min); instant
partial crosses cancel their remainder (07-10 invariant). Paper leg: a
paper_maker registry filled from RTDS prints <= bid, expired by heartbeat
sweep into honest misses. maker_stats counters; fills rows tagged maker;
ba_at_signal recorded (taker counterfactual).
exit_mode=hold (#21): _handle_their_sell choke-point returns without
ordering; every ignored sell -> copybot_ignored_exits[.live].jsonl +
state tail (the mirror counterfactual's forward control). Reconcile
logs hold-through once per position (no backstop spam, no EXIT-STUCK
alarms in hold mode).
Dark by default: real configs boot byte-identical banners; all 8 test
scripts pass; flip = one config change at Friday's read per the
pre-registrations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
T2: the maker species is real and distinct — 673 wallets clear the taker
screen's z>=2.5 discipline on the orders_matched stream (~33 expected by
chance), pooled +$5.9M over 47,693 resolved bets in ~6 tape days; only
96/673 overlap the taker informed set, 3/37 watch_sharps. Not copyable by
taking (their edge IS the spread) — follow-ons: inventory-lean signal,
T1 generic maker sim.
T4: print-substrate sibling-sum scan reads 2.8%/1.5% violation minutes but
the top examples expose the artifact (resolution-time dust prints at bids,
not standing offers); persistence p50 1min. Verdict: inconclusive at v0,
needs standing-book data (L2 recording / live paired scanner) — parked
behind the T1 decision.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
54 chain-graded parity+ signals @$100: maker bid at their price fills 93%
within 60s, EV/signal +$17.45 vs taker +$12.86 (+36%) — fee removal +
no pay-up. No adverse-selection asymmetry at the 60s window (winners fill
92% vs losers 94%); mild asymmetry only in patient tails, so 60s-then-
cancel is the shape. Queue-position optimism stated: maker wins while real
priority >~68%; markout re-read stream will refine. Candidate execution
change behind mirror-exactly + pre-registration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Paper pooled +18.6% (n=35, clears hurdle+2pp). Concentration: esports +22.0%
(n=29, 83% of stake) and gkmgkldfmg +33.4% (n=19). Live pooled ~breakeven at
$1-2 stakes (rounding drag, concentrated in the esports cell) — the #14
size-up tension in one table. Slippage by lag: <=3s fills BETTER than their
print (-0.66c mean). Exploratory measurement; cells small; meta-niche
coverage 0% until snapshots accrue (title fallback used).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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