docs: T1 maker-quoting Stage-1 kill — the wall pays speed, not formulas (FINDINGS coda + README verdict)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

FINDINGS.md

@@ -655,6 +655,19 @@ or nothing. The through-line of the week, now written as one sentence:
 **every taker edge died at the requote wall, and every instrument that
 measured the wall found the makers standing on top of it.**
 
+Coda, same night: we simmed standing on the wall ourselves
+(maker_quote_sim — quotes at oracle-fair−m, 25k tokens, ~31–50k
+chain-graded fills per cell, every trade-through assumed to fill us
+at queue-front). Best cell **+$0.37/fill**; every 4s-requote cell
+−$7–9/fill. A stale quote buys below *stale* fair, and the flow that
+reaches it is the informed flow — staleness IS the adverse selection.
+The wall pays sub-second colocated speed and queue position, not a
+fair-value formula at hobbyist latency. Maker pivot: killed at Stage
+1, $0 spent, one evening. What survives the week: the concentrated
+copy edge and its two pre-registered execution upgrades (#20/#21),
+and the human-maker inventory-lean line — following the wall's
+incumbents, not competing with them.
+
 ## Repo layout
 
 - `insider.py` — the detector: z-score/p-value, timing/freshness/sizing signals,

research/README.md

@@ -57,8 +57,11 @@ Layout:
                         follow-on: inventory-lean signal
   sibling_sum_scan.py   T4 — print-substrate sum-arb scan (artifact-
                         dominated; needs standing-book data; parked)
-  maker_quote_sim.py    T1 — crypto maker quoting at fair−m (stale-quote
-                        latency model; re-run pending)
+  maker_quote_sim.py    T1 — crypto maker quoting at fair−m: STAGE-1
+                        KILL 2026-07-23 (best cell +$0.37/fill at
+                        m=4c/R=1s under queue-front optimism; every
+                        R=4s cell −$7-9/fill — staleness IS the
+                        adverse selection; ~31-50k graded fills/cell)
   requote.py       crater→requote timing (feeds the bots' per-niche retry)
   forward.py       scores frozen studies on new tape days → forward_ledger
                    (payouts_for chain overlay mandatory; controls + sub5c