Fetched from CLOB end_date_iso at fill time; settle passes backfill
pre-ETA fills. Feeds the /surge Open tab's Resolves column.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
CORS-open GET /feed serving the paper book (equity, counters, open,
settled, skips, informed-set meta) — paper data only, nothing mutable.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Real-time PAPER trader of the FROZEN surge signal on its own Fly app
(wwf-surgebot, recorder-pattern image, no keys, no bot imports):
$100 paper book · 5%-of-equity daily stakes ($1 venue floor) · cash-gated
all-or-nothing · event cap 2 · paper FAK against the live CLOB book inside
p_ref*1.05 · provisional CLOB settles re-graded nightly with CTF payout
vectors (grade_surge.py -> surge_paper_ledger.jsonl). Informed set
published daily (informed_set.py -> params/informed_set.json, frozen
method). Unit-tested: fill/crater/event-cap/cash paths exact; live smoke:
dual sockets + sizing clean. Believing any of it stays gated on the #16
forward verdict.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Same frozen surge signal, band opened to 0.5-5c, all niches, F=$300 —
tracked nightly as flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY (NOT pre-registered). First
tape scan: they live in in-play sports totals/blowout tails + esports
maps; ~70% crater; 31 resolved fills, 4 wins, EV sign owned entirely by
two lottery hits; sim depth-blind at longshot share counts. Accumulate
to ~100+ resolved fills before any pre-registration or kill.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
wallet_pnl gains miss_n / miss_pnl (every skip ever, state + archive).
Missed display names now resolve via current follow set THEN names stored
on bet records — a retired wallet (LSB1) was splitting into an address-
prefix twin card. Verified: per-wallet miss_pnl sums exactly to the
feed's missed_pnl (+1173.65 across 199 skips).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Dashboard cards were summing the rolling 100-bet window client-side —
AIcAIc read -5.62 while lifetime (both its addresses) is -15.84/10. The
feed now publishes:
- wallet_pnl: lifetime per-NAME rollup (state + spooled archives), so
address changes and window rotation can't skew the cards
- last_fill: stamped in _drain_fills for the bot-health strip
- <feed>_full.json: EVERY bet + EVERY miss ever (state + archives),
written under the same change-gate, published alongside
Misses now spool to copybot_missed_archive.*.jsonl instead of silent
deletion at the 200 cap (settled rows spool first — open misses must stay
in state for the missed-settle resolver); state was at 199/200, nothing
lost. Archives join the publish set so history survives machine loss.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
First run exited 1 after a successful score: the exit trap's relative
rmdir ran from the repo root (post-cd) — wrong dir, stale lock left in
research/, every future night would have skipped itself.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replays candidate sets through the engine's mirrored mechanics (stake rule
+ DD halving + their-shares ceiling + one-market-one-stake adds + all-or-
nothing cash gate + proportional sell mirror, copytrade.py cited) with the
calibrated sim fill model and tape proxy-resolution. Per-wallet conviction
floors from the paper config's pinned p80s (candidates without pins get
tape-p80, same rule). Outputs per-set×bankroll: realized/open, deployment
stats, miss families (capital/crater/band), capital-miss hypothetical P&L,
per-wallet realized, and --loo leave-one-out marginals at $1k.
Validated against the real paper book on the same window: 33 replay opens
vs 26 real (backfill bias documented — pre-tape positions' adds replay as
opens), capital misses 0 vs 0, peak deploy 62% vs the era's 74%, mean
deployed $297 vs ~$360. SEARCH TOOL ONLY per the silo README — verdicts
stay with forward_ledger.jsonl.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The nightly Mac-coupled bulk ingest was the fragile link (today: Mac slept
through 08:00, the pipeline started 09:31, and the sftp bulk pull wedged in
timeout cascades holding the db lock — digest blocked behind it). Stage 0
moves the fold onto the box and reduces the Mac to an incremental mirror:
- recorder/fold.py (sidecar, capture stays PID 1): closed gz segments ->
zstd parquet /data/parquet/<fam>/date=*/segment.parquet, row-parity
verified, manifest-logged, THEN gz deleted. Deletion invariant STRONGER:
raw needs a verified parquet; parquet needs a Mac ACK before the disk
guard may prune it. duckdb capped 384MB; VM 256MB -> 1GB.
- recorder/sync_tape.py (com.jaxperro.tape-sync every 15 min + daily.sh):
manifest-driven incremental sftp pull, per-file row verify, append into
rtds.duckdb NATIVE tables (views-over-parquet rejected: sim's per-asset
point queries would crawl), segment-keyed idempotence shared with the
legacy ingest.py (kept as fallback), ack back to the box.
- recorder/bootstrap_parquet.py: pre-fold history exported to the mirror,
parity OK (13.84M trades + 3.07M aux). live/parquet/ is now the complete
durable layer Stage 1 (MotherDuck/ClickHouse) would consume.
- research/tape.py connect(): brief retry — the 15-min sync holds the
write lock for seconds.
First run: backlog folded in <60s on the box, 36/36 files mirrored+
verified, rtds.duckdb 13.8M -> 18.2M trades, tape age 24h+ -> ~15-45 min.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
copybot[bot]