Fetched from CLOB end_date_iso at fill time; settle passes backfill
pre-ETA fills. Feeds the /surge Open tab's Resolves column.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
CORS-open GET /feed serving the paper book (equity, counters, open,
settled, skips, informed-set meta) — paper data only, nothing mutable.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Real-time PAPER trader of the FROZEN surge signal on its own Fly app
(wwf-surgebot, recorder-pattern image, no keys, no bot imports):
$100 paper book · 5%-of-equity daily stakes ($1 venue floor) · cash-gated
all-or-nothing · event cap 2 · paper FAK against the live CLOB book inside
p_ref*1.05 · provisional CLOB settles re-graded nightly with CTF payout
vectors (grade_surge.py -> surge_paper_ledger.jsonl). Informed set
published daily (informed_set.py -> params/informed_set.json, frozen
method). Unit-tested: fill/crater/event-cap/cash paths exact; live smoke:
dual sockets + sizing clean. Believing any of it stays gated on the #16
forward verdict.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Same frozen surge signal, band opened to 0.5-5c, all niches, F=$300 —
tracked nightly as flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY (NOT pre-registered). First
tape scan: they live in in-play sports totals/blowout tails + esports
maps; ~70% crater; 31 resolved fills, 4 wins, EV sign owned entirely by
two lottery hits; sim depth-blind at longshot share counts. Accumulate
to ~100+ resolved fills before any pre-registration or kill.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
First run exited 1 after a successful score: the exit trap's relative
rmdir ran from the repo root (post-cd) — wrong dir, stale lock left in
research/, every future night would have skipped itself.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replays candidate sets through the engine's mirrored mechanics (stake rule
+ DD halving + their-shares ceiling + one-market-one-stake adds + all-or-
nothing cash gate + proportional sell mirror, copytrade.py cited) with the
calibrated sim fill model and tape proxy-resolution. Per-wallet conviction
floors from the paper config's pinned p80s (candidates without pins get
tape-p80, same rule). Outputs per-set×bankroll: realized/open, deployment
stats, miss families (capital/crater/band), capital-miss hypothetical P&L,
per-wallet realized, and --loo leave-one-out marginals at $1k.
Validated against the real paper book on the same window: 33 replay opens
vs 26 real (backfill bias documented — pre-tape positions' adds replay as
opens), capital misses 0 vs 0, peak deploy 62% vs the era's 74%, mean
deployed $297 vs ~$360. SEARCH TOOL ONLY per the silo README — verdicts
stay with forward_ledger.jsonl.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The nightly Mac-coupled bulk ingest was the fragile link (today: Mac slept
through 08:00, the pipeline started 09:31, and the sftp bulk pull wedged in
timeout cascades holding the db lock — digest blocked behind it). Stage 0
moves the fold onto the box and reduces the Mac to an incremental mirror:
- recorder/fold.py (sidecar, capture stays PID 1): closed gz segments ->
zstd parquet /data/parquet/<fam>/date=*/segment.parquet, row-parity
verified, manifest-logged, THEN gz deleted. Deletion invariant STRONGER:
raw needs a verified parquet; parquet needs a Mac ACK before the disk
guard may prune it. duckdb capped 384MB; VM 256MB -> 1GB.
- recorder/sync_tape.py (com.jaxperro.tape-sync every 15 min + daily.sh):
manifest-driven incremental sftp pull, per-file row verify, append into
rtds.duckdb NATIVE tables (views-over-parquet rejected: sim's per-asset
point queries would crawl), segment-keyed idempotence shared with the
legacy ingest.py (kept as fallback), ack back to the box.
- recorder/bootstrap_parquet.py: pre-fold history exported to the mirror,
parity OK (13.84M trades + 3.07M aux). live/parquet/ is now the complete
durable layer Stage 1 (MotherDuck/ClickHouse) would consume.
- research/tape.py connect(): brief retry — the 15-min sync holds the
write lock for seconds.
First run: backlog folded in <60s on the box, 36/36 files mirrored+
verified, rtds.duckdb 13.8M -> 18.2M trades, tape age 24h+ -> ~15-45 min.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-21 first firing failed two ways: launchd's bare python3 has no
duckdb (framework python does), and 09:15 preceded the sleep-delayed daily
pipeline's tape ingest, so even a clean run would have scored a stale
tape. nightly.sh now uses the framework python and polls tape max-ts until
it is <6h old (15min polls, 8h deadline, then scores anyway and logs the
staleness).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro