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jaxperro 2fab0424d0 research: sub-5c surge longshots as an EXPLORATORY forward arm

Same frozen surge signal, band opened to 0.5-5c, all niches, F=$300 —
tracked nightly as flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY (NOT pre-registered). First
tape scan: they live in in-play sports totals/blowout tails + esports
maps; ~70% crater; 31 resolved fills, 4 wins, EV sign owned entirely by
two lottery hits; sim depth-blind at longshot share counts. Accumulate
to ~100+ resolved fills before any pre-registration or kill.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-07-21 14:48:26 -04:00

params

research: set-replay harness — sweep wallet-set compositions over the tape

2026-07-21 12:54:35 -04:00

forward_ledger.jsonl

research: forward ledger 2026-07-21 [skip ci]

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forward.py

research: sub-5c surge longshots as an EXPLORATORY forward arm

2026-07-21 14:48:26 -04:00

nightly.sh

research: nightly lock uses an absolute path

2026-07-21 13:09:20 -04:00

README.md

docs: stage-0 coherence pass across README/HANDOFF/recorder/research

2026-07-21 13:07:31 -04:00

replay.py

research: set-replay harness — sweep wallet-set compositions over the tape

2026-07-21 12:54:35 -04:00

requote.py

research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2 , #16 , #17 )

2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00

robustness_flow.py

research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2 , #16 , #17 )

2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00

sim.py

research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2 , #16 , #17 )

2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00

study_flow.py

research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2 , #16 , #17 )

2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00

study_oracle.py

research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2 , #16 , #17 )

2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00

tape.py

stage-0 warehouse: recorder folds its own tape to parquet; Mac mirrors every 15 min

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README.md

research/ — the edge factory (SILO)

Standing rules (user directive 2026-07-20: "built in a silo to not affect anything on the live bot"):

Nothing here is imported by, or imports, the bot (copybot.py, copytrade.py, their configs). The Fly workers run pinned entrypoints; this directory is inert to them.
Tape access is read-only (duckdb.connect(..., read_only=True)).
The ONE shared write: live/cache.duckdb::resolutions via live/payouts.py — append-only immutable chain facts, the same store the daily pipeline already feeds. Nothing else in live/ is touched.
The existing paper bot is the live test's CONTROL — graduated edges get their own paper harness here, never that one.
Studies are pre-registered (GitHub issue per study: hypothesis, params, verdict + kill criteria) BEFORE their forward window opens. Exploration happens on already-collected tape; verdicts only come from forward_ledger.jsonl rows dated after the params freeze commit.

Layout: tape.py read-only loaders · tape proxy-resolution (terminal-VWAP + sibling veto, the 742/742 chain-validated method) · title parsers (niche, crypto strike/expiry/sprint) sim.py execution replayer calibrated on OUR live fills ledger (lag, FAK no-match, protected band, 3% taker fee) study_flow.py Study A — informed-flow state signal study_oracle.py Study B — crypto oracle fair value vs the book requote.py crater→requote timing measurement (retry tuning) forward.py scores frozen studies on new tape days → forward_ledger.jsonl params/ frozen study parameters (committed = frozen) nightly.sh launchd runner (fires 09:15, then WAITS for fresh tape — Stage 0 keeps the tape ~15-min fresh whenever the Mac is awake; deadline 8h, then scores anyway and logs staleness)