winning-wallet-finder_github/research

research/ — the edge factory (SILO)

Standing rules (user directive 2026-07-20: "built in a silo to not affect anything on the live bot"):

• Nothing here is imported by, or imports, the bot (copybot.py, copytrade.py, their configs). The Fly workers run pinned entrypoints; this directory is inert to them.
• Tape access is read-only (duckdb.connect(..., read_only=True)).
• The ONE shared write: live/cache.duckdb::resolutions via live/payouts.py — append-only immutable chain facts, the same store the daily pipeline already feeds. Nothing else in live/ is touched.
• The existing paper bot is the live test's CONTROL — graduated edges get their own paper harness here, never that one.
• Studies are pre-registered (GitHub issue per study: hypothesis, params, verdict + kill criteria) BEFORE their forward window opens. Exploration happens on already-collected tape; verdicts only come from forward_ledger.jsonl rows dated after the params freeze commit.

Layout: tape.py read-only loaders · tape proxy-resolution (terminal-VWAP + sibling veto, the 742/742 chain-validated method) · title parsers (niche, crypto strike/expiry/sprint) sim.py execution replayer calibrated on OUR live fills ledger (lag, FAK no-match, protected band, 3% taker fee) study_flow.py Study A — informed-flow state signal study_oracle.py Study B — crypto oracle fair value vs the book requote.py crater→requote timing measurement (retry tuning) forward.py scores frozen studies on new tape days → forward_ledger.jsonl params/ frozen study parameters (committed = frozen) nightly.sh manual/launchd runner (separate from daily.sh)