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research: forward ledger 2026-07-22 [skip ci]

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jaxperro
2026-07-22 13:11:32 -04:00
parent ca5d5a80b2
commit ab2f854dcc
3 changed files with 212 additions and 116 deletions
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research/forward_ledger.jsonl
+9
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@@ -22,3 +22,12 @@
{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-20", "computed_at": "2026-07-21 18:46 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 9297, "fills": 40, "pending": 1553, "pnl": -679.29, "wins": 19, "ev_per_fill": -16.98, "hit": 0.475}, "0.07": {"events": 5522, "fills": 23, "pending": 559, "pnl": -465.09, "wins": 10, "ev_per_fill": -20.22, "hit": 0.435}, "0.1": {"events": 3900, "fills": 15, "pending": 298, "pnl": -538.19, "wins": 7, "ev_per_fill": -35.88, "hit": 0.467}}
{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-19", "computed_at": "2026-07-21 18:46 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 2585, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 478, "misses": 1885, "pending": 222, "pnl": 11994.91, "wins": 346, "ev_per_fill": 25.09, "hit": 0.724}, "worst": {"fills": 478, "misses": 1885, "pending": 222, "pnl": 11773.09, "wins": 346, "ev_per_fill": 24.63, "hit": 0.724}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 29, "pnl": 1142.87}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 20, "pnl": -191.23}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 37, "pnl": 952.1}]}
{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-19", "computed_at": "2026-07-21 18:46 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 1316, "fills": 9, "pending": 232, "pnl": -27.62, "wins": 7, "ev_per_fill": -3.07, "hit": 0.778}, "0.07": {"events": 767, "fills": 2, "pending": 105, "pnl": -8.42, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": -4.21, "hit": 0.5}, "0.1": {"events": 524, "fills": 1, "pending": 64, "pnl": 93.2, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 93.2, "hit": 1.0}}
{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-22", "computed_at": "2026-07-22 16:56 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 1485, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 73, "misses": 1075, "pending": 337, "pnl": 3005.48, "wins": 64, "ev_per_fill": 41.17, "hit": 0.877}, "worst": {"fills": 73, "misses": 1075, "pending": 337, "pnl": 2983.92, "wins": 64, "ev_per_fill": 40.88, "hit": 0.877}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 2, "pnl": 125.53}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 1, "pnl": 93.2}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 5, "pnl": 86.33}]}
{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-22", "computed_at": "2026-07-22 16:56 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 4286, "fills": 11, "pending": 825, "pnl": 6.33, "wins": 7, "ev_per_fill": 0.58, "hit": 0.636}, "0.07": {"events": 2502, "fills": 9, "pending": 357, "pnl": -30.04, "wins": 5, "ev_per_fill": -3.34, "hit": 0.556}, "0.1": {"events": 1782, "fills": 6, "pending": 203, "pnl": -172.72, "wins": 3, "ev_per_fill": -28.79, "hit": 0.5}}
{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-22", "computed_at": "2026-07-22 16:56 UTC", "triggers": 21, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 0, "misses": 13, "pending": 8, "pnl": 0.0, "wins": 0}, "worst": {"fills": 0, "misses": 13, "pending": 8, "pnl": 0.0, "wins": 0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-21", "computed_at": "2026-07-22 16:56 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 2573, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 312, "misses": 1904, "pending": 357, "pnl": 14609.55, "wins": 252, "ev_per_fill": 46.83, "hit": 0.808}, "worst": {"fills": 312, "misses": 1904, "pending": 357, "pnl": 14360.55, "wins": 252, "ev_per_fill": 46.03, "hit": 0.808}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 4, "pnl": 358.52}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 1, "pnl": 160.16}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 12, "pnl": 208.9}]}
{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-21", "computed_at": "2026-07-22 16:56 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 5194, "fills": 13, "pending": 907, "pnl": -225.91, "wins": 7, "ev_per_fill": -17.38, "hit": 0.538}, "0.07": {"events": 3028, "fills": 6, "pending": 337, "pnl": -480.92, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": -80.15, "hit": 0.167}, "0.1": {"events": 2132, "fills": 6, "pending": 183, "pnl": -480.92, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": -80.15, "hit": 0.167}}
{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-21", "computed_at": "2026-07-22 16:56 UTC", "triggers": 52, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 2, "misses": 32, "pending": 18, "pnl": -206.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "worst": {"fills": 2, "misses": 32, "pending": 18, "pnl": -206.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-20", "computed_at": "2026-07-22 16:56 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 1619, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 261, "misses": 1173, "pending": 185, "pnl": 9098.57, "wins": 191, "ev_per_fill": 34.86, "hit": 0.732}, "worst": {"fills": 261, "misses": 1173, "pending": 185, "pnl": 8940.4, "wins": 191, "ev_per_fill": 34.25, "hit": 0.732}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 6, "pnl": 13.45}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 7, "pnl": 471.42}]}
{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-20", "computed_at": "2026-07-22 16:56 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 9297, "fills": 40, "pending": 1553, "pnl": -679.29, "wins": 19, "ev_per_fill": -16.98, "hit": 0.475}, "0.07": {"events": 5525, "fills": 23, "pending": 560, "pnl": -465.09, "wins": 10, "ev_per_fill": -20.22, "hit": 0.435}, "0.1": {"events": 3900, "fills": 15, "pending": 298, "pnl": -538.19, "wins": 7, "ev_per_fill": -35.88, "hit": 0.467}}
{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-20", "computed_at": "2026-07-22 16:56 UTC", "triggers": 28, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 2, "misses": 19, "pending": 7, "pnl": -206.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "worst": {"fills": 2, "misses": 19, "pending": 7, "pnl": -206.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
research/params/informed_set.json
+116 -116
View File
@@ -1,157 +1,157 @@
{
"generated_at": 1784661151,
"as_of_tape_ts": 1784660384,
"generated_at": 1784740270,
"as_of_tape_ts": 1784735935,
"method": "study_flow.informed_set FROZEN (top_n=150, z>=2.5, n>=6)",
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research/surge_paper_ledger.jsonl
+87
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