copybot: live paper feed [skip ci]

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

HANDOFF.md

@@ -41,6 +41,27 @@ LIVE 2026-07-24 @d4fff27), #25 Study E position-scope conviction
 rolling net-USD aggregate; flip = operator's call). #18 (empty-cond copies unsettleable) closed same day: RTDS seed
 enrichment + falsy-cond repair pass + 1h alarm.
 
+## LIVE BOT PAUSED (user, 2026-07-27)
+`LIVE_CONFIRM` UNSET — wwf-copybot-live reboots into `geocheck --idle`
+(no clone, no book, no orders). Key + funder secrets untouched; re-arm =
+`flyctl secrets set LIVE_CONFIRM="TRADE LIVE" -a wwf-copybot-live`.
+State at pause: book $48.55 · $22.48 free · 15 open ($26.07, five at
+93-98c) · realized −$27.31. Open positions now ride to resolution
+UNMANAGED (no >=90c band exits; platform auto-redeems winners). /live
+feed is frozen at this state until re-armed.
+
+**WHY it was paused — the finding that triggered it:** Polymarket enforces
+a **5-share minimum per order** ("Size (1.47) lower than the minimum: 5").
+That is a PRICE-dependent dollar floor: at the book's $1 braked stake
+(4% of $48.55, halved by the drawdown brake, floored to the $1 venue
+min) only <=20c markets are reachable, so every 40-90c signal fired an
+order that could not succeed — 25 venue rejections in 3 days, while 204
+other signals were correctly floor-rejected as sub-conviction. Fixed at
+the gate (copytrade.MIN_SHARES=5.0 blocks with the shares/dollars
+needed instead of firing doomed orders), but the CAPITAL fact stands:
+**~$113 equity at 4%, or ~$225 under the drawdown brake, is the minimum
+viable size to trade 90c markets.** Sizing/funding is the USER's call.
+
 ## Operating boundary (user, 2026-07-13 — standing)
 **Full autonomy on the bots**; the real-money bot **stays ARMED**. Never
 touch the private key, Discord alerts webhook ROTATED 2026-07-19 (#3 closed),

copybot.py

@@ -1746,6 +1746,13 @@ class Copybot:
             # without copies (2026-07-13 user report). n = lifetime copies,
             # n24 = fills in the window.
             "lag": (lambda t: {"n": lag.get("n", 0), "n24": t[0],
+                               # window empty -> we show the LIFETIME mean, so
+                               # SAY so; the tile used to label it "24h" and
+                               # quietly report a number dragged by the retired
+                               # poll era (2026-07-27 user report)
+                               "basis": ("24h" if t[1] is not None
+                                         else "lifetime" if lag.get("n")
+                                         else "none"),
                                "avg_s": (round(t[1], 1) if t[1] is not None
                                          else (round(lag["sum_s"] / lag["n"], 1)
                                                if lag.get("n") else None)),
@@ -2347,7 +2354,12 @@ class Copybot:
         if not rec:
             return 0, None, None
         n = len(rec)
-        return n, sum(r[1] for r in rec) / n, sum(r[2] for r in rec) / n
+        # MEDIAN, not mean (2026-07-27): one 269s early-rollout outlier made a
+        # 3s bot read as 25s. The tile is a health signal, not an accounting
+        # total, so the typical fill is the honest summary.
+        lags = sorted(r[1] for r in rec)
+        med = lags[n // 2] if n % 2 else (lags[n // 2 - 1] + lags[n // 2]) / 2
+        return n, med, sum(r[2] for r in rec) / n
 
     def summary(self, cycle):
         bank = self.cfg["bankroll_usd"]

copybot_fills.jsonl

@@ -996,3 +996,45 @@
 {"ts": 1785099998.6, "side": "SELL", "token": "38653928625312634500254748884896709523765538580393484335273651251587581768973", "shares": 213.0295, "price": 1.0, "fee": 0.0, "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785103318.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "73772414999817992515088687755193145487336993356690533986692595350122387340288", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on July 27?", "detect_lag_s": 2.8, "their_price": 0.93, "my_price": 0.93, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 63.33, "cost": 58.9, "fee": 0.1237, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.93, "ba": 0.99, "spread": 0.06, "bid5c": 173.9, "ask5c": 589.05}, "maker": true}
 {"ts": 1785103447.3, "side": "SELL", "token": "73772414999817992515088687755193145487336993356690533986692595350122387340288", "shares": 51.1702, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0152, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785111591.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "Yes", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?", "detect_lag_s": 6.7, "their_price": 0.63, "my_price": 0.63, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 48.8, "cost": 30.74, "fee": 0.3413, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.44, "ba": 0.63, "spread": 0.19, "bid5c": 283.23, "ask5c": 305.44}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785115560.0, "side": "SELL", "token": "73772414999817992515088687755193145487336993356690533986692595350122387340288", "shares": 12.1581, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0036, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785121857.8, "side": "SELL", "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "shares": 11.2685, "price": 0.93, "fee": 0.022, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785127066.5, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "52897893276285627510690194142963884799788689807458708980439810896103687693971", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "Yes", "title": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026", "detect_lag_s": 6.5, "their_price": 0.9, "my_price": 0.9, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 48.72, "cost": 43.85, "fee": 0.1315, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.89, "ba": 0.98, "spread": 0.09, "bid5c": 2320.09, "ask5c": 1465.45}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785129711.1, "side": "SELL", "token": "52897893276285627510690194142963884799788689807458708980439810896103687693971", "shares": 48.7191, "price": 0.998, "fee": 0.0029, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785130844.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "79670417518965340166637380137891741750752210241055933511013597289989925437928", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "Up", "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 27?", "detect_lag_s": 6.7, "their_price": 0.9, "my_price": 0.9, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 61.79, "cost": 55.61, "fee": 0.1668, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.89, "ba": 0.9, "spread": 0.01, "bid5c": 11365.29, "ask5c": 24552.77}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785139521.2, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "5093836280630653877561190382016580808144147177143767913302616853585042535941", "name": "JuiceFarm", "outcome": "T1", "title": "LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage", "detect_lag_s": 30.2, "their_price": 0.88, "my_price": 0.88, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 151.88, "cost": 133.65, "fee": 0.4812, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.87, "ba": 0.88, "spread": 0.01, "bid5c": 28291.75, "ask5c": 52184.09}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785144319.2, "side": "SELL", "token": "78639892723644623147617890032845605442018473848411325154446303980329931711515", "shares": 33.3626, "price": 0.979, "fee": 0.0206, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785153020.4, "side": "SELL", "token": "5093836280630653877561190382016580808144147177143767913302616853585042535941", "shares": 151.88, "price": 1.0, "fee": 0.0, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785159013.9, "side": "SELL", "token": "79670417518965340166637380137891741750752210241055933511013597289989925437928", "shares": 55.5555, "price": 0.93, "fee": 0.1085, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785162562.3, "side": "SELL", "token": "72380260523779452108747496691590035418744958761813904753644512394906005337193", "shares": 10.9272, "price": 0.95, "fee": 0.0156, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785162655.1, "side": "SELL", "token": "72380260523779452108747496691590035418744958761813904753644512394906005337193", "shares": 4.3709, "price": 0.95, "fee": 0.0062, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785166439.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "Yes", "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "detect_lag_s": 7.4, "their_price": 0.73, "my_price": 0.73, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 71.91, "cost": 52.49, "fee": 0.4252, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.73, "ba": 0.81, "spread": 0.08, "bid5c": 2034.67, "ask5c": 1517.89}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785166552.5, "side": "SELL", "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286", "shares": 57.3569, "price": 0.94, "fee": 0.097, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785166553.6, "side": "SELL", "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286", "shares": 14.4991, "price": 0.93, "fee": 0.0283, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785166601.9, "side": "SELL", "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286", "shares": 0.054, "price": 0.91, "fee": 0.0001, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785170383.3, "side": "SELL", "token": "72380260523779452108747496691590035418744958761813904753644512394906005337193", "shares": 21.8545, "price": 0.95, "fee": 0.0311, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785170796.1, "side": "SELL", "token": "72380260523779452108747496691590035418744958761813904753644512394906005337193", "shares": 17.4748, "price": 0.95, "fee": 0.0249, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785175094.4, "side": "SELL", "token": "31844421127747452247920361772593140342967161564902355004027803194678743954899", "shares": 24.8546, "price": 0.996, "fee": 0.003, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785191856.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "Yes", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "detect_lag_s": 1.3, "their_price": 0.41, "my_price": 0.41, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 168.23, "cost": 68.97, "fee": 1.2208, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.39, "ba": 0.41, "spread": 0.02, "bid5c": 1334.92, "ask5c": 2013.34}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785202412.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 Week of July 27 2026?", "detect_lag_s": 9.4, "their_price": 0.77, "my_price": 0.77, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 29.17, "cost": 22.46, "fee": 0.155, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.67, "ba": 0.77, "spread": 0.1, "bid5c": 58.85, "ask5c": 77.0}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785203532.0, "side": "SELL", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "shares": 1.895, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0006, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785205294.9, "side": "SELL", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "shares": 2.0824, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0006, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785205661.0, "side": "SELL", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "shares": 4.1024, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0012, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785208726.4, "side": "SELL", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "shares": 4.1856, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0012, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785221119.7, "side": "SELL", "token": "45110992399056657070414988111806772840513629662508128679624612897635752010841", "shares": 0.2166, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0001, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785235545.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "86679239858518906873492617617658695793360100462726529532253226646142736420327", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $270 in July?", "detect_lag_s": 4.4, "their_price": 0.776, "my_price": 0.776, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 82.51, "cost": 64.03, "fee": 0.4303, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.645, "ba": 0.971, "spread": 0.326, "bid5c": 433.24, "ask5c": 3339.76}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785242656.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "80808145657906667113795891925826034935213900714245802195985269085181895227480", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Unit FDV above $2B one day after launch?", "detect_lag_s": 5.3, "their_price": 0.8132, "my_price": 0.8132, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 32.2, "cost": 26.19, "fee": 0.1467, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.78, "ba": 0.97, "spread": 0.19, "bid5c": 36.03, "ask5c": 261.92}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785242663.6, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "64694885593632675781317938696736040286617580212029967143105168259299625512290", "name": "1kto1m", "outcome": "Down", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8AM ET", "detect_lag_s": 0.6, "their_price": 0.4473, "my_price": 0.4473, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 242.63, "cost": 108.52, "fee": 1.7995, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.44, "ba": 0.45, "spread": 0.01, "bid5c": 694.88, "ask5c": 1085.21}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785248873.1, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "115022349425230056420599576774053150964082288276346642481948600625364544056404", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "outcome": "No Hoodwink", "title": "Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner", "detect_lag_s": 51.1, "their_price": 0.8758, "my_price": 0.8758, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 154.51, "cost": 135.31, "fee": 0.5043, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.819, "ba": 0.833, "spread": 0.014, "bid5c": 544.3, "ask5c": 194.81}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785249409.0, "side": "SELL", "token": "115022349425230056420599576774053150964082288276346642481948600625364544056404", "shares": 154.51, "price": 1.0, "fee": 0.0, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785252600.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?", "detect_lag_s": 0.7, "their_price": 0.87, "my_price": 0.87, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 71.18, "cost": 61.93, "fee": 0.2415, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.84, "ba": 0.88, "spread": 0.04, "bid5c": 2834.7, "ask5c": 2735.31}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785252609.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?", "detect_lag_s": 1.9, "their_price": 0.86, "my_price": 0.86, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 67.88, "cost": 58.38, "fee": 0.2452, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.79, "ba": 0.84, "spread": 0.05, "bid5c": 2548.29, "ask5c": 2578.65}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785252699.6, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?", "detect_lag_s": 1.6, "their_price": 0.86, "my_price": 0.86, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 13.26, "cost": 11.4, "fee": 0.0479, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.84, "ba": 0.86, "spread": 0.02, "bid5c": 3152.34, "ask5c": 2414.75}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785253450.2, "side": "SELL", "token": "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448", "shares": 2.713, "price": 0.991, "fee": 0.0007, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785253623.1, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "36691622618442161420564423274570099987634772496502598170189501595483083268777", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 28?", "detect_lag_s": 10.1, "their_price": 0.946, "my_price": 0.946, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 65.61, "cost": 62.07, "fee": 0.1005, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.892, "ba": 0.998, "spread": 0.106, "bid5c": 576.61, "ask5c": 700.77}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785253623.2, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "36691622618442161420564423274570099987634772496502598170189501595483083268777", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 28?", "detect_lag_s": 7.2, "their_price": 0.946, "my_price": 0.946, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 74.07, "cost": 70.07, "fee": 0.1135, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.892, "ba": 0.998, "spread": 0.106, "bid5c": 576.61, "ask5c": 700.77}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785253623.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "36691622618442161420564423274570099987634772496502598170189501595483083268777", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 28?", "detect_lag_s": 5.3, "their_price": 0.946, "my_price": 0.946, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 74.07, "cost": 70.07, "fee": 0.1135, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.892, "ba": 0.998, "spread": 0.106, "bid5c": 576.61, "ask5c": 700.77}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785253652.7, "side": "SELL", "token": "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448", "shares": 1.5898, "price": 0.998, "fee": 0.0001, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785253661.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "99168594369112900321075065263037928819848865546262777337590843994370476821249", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 28?", "detect_lag_s": 2.7, "their_price": 0.4744, "my_price": 0.4744, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 30.23, "cost": 14.34, "fee": 0.2261, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.354, "ba": 0.51, "spread": 0.156, "bid5c": 24.57, "ask5c": 110.41}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785253748.0, "side": "SELL", "token": "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448", "shares": 4.33, "price": 0.997, "fee": 0.0004, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785253798.6, "side": "SELL", "token": "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448", "shares": 8.1662, "price": 0.998, "fee": 0.0005, "mode": "paper"}

copybot_fills.live.jsonl

@@ -386,3 +386,8 @@
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copybot_ignored_exits.live.jsonl

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copybot_missed_archive.live.jsonl

@@ -59,3 +59,21 @@
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copybot_rejects.jsonl

@@ -190,3 +190,378 @@
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copybot_rejects.live.jsonl

@@ -192,3 +192,215 @@
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+{"ts": 1785173663.6, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 0.88, "price": 0.1500000170000201, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785173713.0, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 11.2, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$11 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785174749.3, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 0.53, "price": 0.15, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785175033.1, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 8.82, "price": 0.1500000017, "reason": "$9 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785175494.7, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "109560195847127443718098720993839508458395767835235641294925271566812897320563", "cond": "0xcdf022c2b67b00eeb6325e4f2e7471cc6db10f907185b12f0a1d5f41b5f64b11", "usd": 39.16, "price": 0.88, "reason": "$39 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Solary vs Esprit Sh\u014dnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785176159.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "23024890824928991931171457925717332651331351410702959969331637777186712345804", "cond": "0x1e2944f5396c5dd65ebd6ae74a1ad7d5b6ef41310ac4fb89e00a0a1c4be79215", "usd": 4.6, "price": 0.219999972260867, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Mounjaro sales be above $9.75B?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785176159.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "110215760658752952054086825519876111081636420232399895419831306493560319639468", "cond": "0x6b429cdeaaae79e40997e65bd17b372cd69bc6fe372998badf55eb320610b89e", "usd": 0.53, "price": 0.53, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Mounjaro sales be above $10.5B?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785176233.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "7563876384170328991093508345293910030919134701285431254369345261613508722844", "cond": "0xfc74a45166df83d2fe1f96b4f21e03c48814ba55a123eb8c4bc5664ffc364346", "usd": 0.53, "price": 0.53, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $143.5?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785176234.5, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "107329851418144236190548562808413375246774632562537915157353502219078013640218", "cond": "0xa20e250a5e0800bb6374b5eee619bdb0f51fff278bc4c13aef10645b5c8d6e8d", "usd": 7.6, "price": 0.38, "reason": "$8 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $142?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785176903.8, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "22243280273498234987031341437063630596733850966298635604549136405175256264690", "cond": "0x1a03b791d9670be09bce3ffd281cca2a98df7be99d4daeb9f1f44226271c6937", "usd": 2.12, "price": 0.68, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785178249.7, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 9.8, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$10 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785178581.0, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "99084894197465360825392240234914575924164907464372282353662854733930281112240", "cond": "0xaa8859787095503143c6909aef38089bee2757f4da906b1c0d2e84279e39f0a1", "usd": 16.8, "price": 0.8395002973230928, "reason": "$17 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $140.5?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785178581.1, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "7361545935938804750971113494538671145680968001907625519907041646375937676902", "cond": "0xae7b4333a7a5827436a80ef1498257155a11931b5ea380db74bd5c79a5820830", "usd": 2.8, "price": 0.14, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Marriott (MAR) Q2 worldwide RevPAR be above $139?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785179113.4, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 0.35, "price": 0.15, "reason": "$0 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785179209.7, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 1.08, "price": 0.3500000975000341, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785179608.8, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 2.49, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785180968.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "3352212270030970971065176500659733642539163570172678204545227744137098328443", "cond": "0x770170d4c1fcba074aaf166e0c7b17a5363ac996888dabc3b8ba3aa7ecbc80e4", "usd": 0.43, "price": 0.51, "reason": "$0 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785180972.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "9517313050774710930236335382783778767010533589089781595901530417522133486261", "cond": "0xb5d05433a58ebc99c17a31e44adfce64154b74f9a1b52a565b8cfd450270cc75", "usd": 11.69, "price": 0.46, "reason": "$12 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785181063.2, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "3352212270030970971065176500659733642539163570172678204545227744137098328443", "cond": "0x770170d4c1fcba074aaf166e0c7b17a5363ac996888dabc3b8ba3aa7ecbc80e4", "usd": 12.26, "price": 0.4960871430074373, "reason": "$12 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785184044.3, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 1.8, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785188899.3, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 1.88, "price": 0.3500000185714333, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785189887.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "102310045461734588077779078166990872317761226486600712678916824798493454810082", "cond": "0x263e0b8fd25ff0cbba70632c51d2815c8c4baee07485132909425769c4eacb34", "usd": 5.78, "price": 0.25, "reason": "$6 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785189887.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "90894528034844239433098400057663273138419716408873356788213029508523177653209", "cond": "0xe51b0cdb413eb9a18243e70c1f33705cdab18f4149b867f32f05650e758d8070", "usd": 16.66, "price": 0.740133, "reason": "$17 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785191883.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489", "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5", "usd": 18.7, "price": 0.55, "reason": "$19 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785191883.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "cond": "0x7f0d84b155c484b801f2cba68eb0f9ef8b2a0a54b7e6bb0fa53a1778964f53fd", "usd": 25.9, "price": 0.4, "reason": "$26 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785191896.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489", "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5", "usd": 16.62, "price": 0.5599999932611308, "reason": "$17 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785192499.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "114112791648091992484961360791130871882442300768649687759021814005678770195744", "cond": "0xd2bfe443d711e8b98256a572769876088a7a8d59b8a118be246c561931431d2a", "usd": 15.5, "price": 0.3, "reason": "$16 < conviction floor $28", "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 28?", "mode": "live"}

copytrade.py

@@ -33,6 +33,12 @@ CLOB_API = "https://clob.polymarket.com"
 POLYGON_CHAIN_ID = 137
 CONFIRM_PHRASE = "TRADE LIVE"
 
+# Polymarket rejects orders under this many shares regardless of dollar
+# value ("Size (1.47) lower than the minimum: 5", observed live 2026-07-27).
+# It makes the real floor PRICE-dependent: a 90c market needs $4.50, a 20c
+# market $1.00 — which is why a $1-stake book can only trade deep longshots.
+MIN_SHARES = 5.0
+
 DEFAULT_CONFIG = {
     "mode": "paper",                 # "paper" or "live"
     "poll_seconds": 12,              # how often to check each wallet
@@ -431,6 +437,17 @@ class CopyTrader:
         if allowed < r["min_order_usd"]:
             return 0.0, (f"capped to ${allowed:.2f} < min order "
                          f"${r['min_order_usd']:.2f} (caps)")
+        # VENUE SHARE MINIMUM (2026-07-27): Polymarket rejects any order
+        # under MIN_SHARES shares — "Size (1.47) lower than the minimum: 5"
+        # — which is a PRICE-dependent dollar floor the $-only gate above
+        # cannot see. At a $1 stake that caps us to <=20c markets; every
+        # 40-90c signal fired a doomed order and booked a venue rejection.
+        # Skip honestly instead, and say what the bet would have needed.
+        need = MIN_SHARES * price
+        if allowed < need - 1e-9:
+            return 0.0, (f"below venue {MIN_SHARES:g}-share minimum: "
+                         f"${allowed:.2f} at {price:.2f} = "
+                         f"{allowed / price:.2f} shares (needs ${need:.2f})")
         return allowed, None
 
     # -- process one of their trades --

fly.leanbot.toml

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+# wwf-leanbot — Study C Stage-2 maker-lean PAPER harness (research silo).
+# No keys, no orders, code baked in image. The screened wallet set is
+# published nightly by maker_set.py — the box never screens itself.
+# Verdict binds to #26; graded nightly on the Mac (grade_lean.py).
+app = "wwf-leanbot"
+primary_region = "arn"
+
+[build]
+  dockerfile = "research/leanbot.Dockerfile"
+
+[[mounts]]
+  source = "lean"
+  destination = "/data"
+
+# read-only paper feed (GET /feed, CORS-open)
+[http_service]
+  internal_port = 8080
+  force_https = true
+  auto_stop_machines = false
+  auto_start_machines = true
+  min_machines_running = 1
+
+[[restart]]
+  policy = "always"
+
+[[vm]]
+  size = "shared-cpu-1x"
+  memory = "256mb"

live/conviction_wallets.json

@@ -37,9 +37,9 @@
     "med_stake": 9800,
     "avg_entry": 0.46,
     "train_n": 79,
-    "fwd_win": 96.3,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.015,
-    "fwd_n": 27
+    "fwd_win": 96.4,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.018,
+    "fwd_n": 28
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x72e1597864456eda62878413cf3e60c332e4a45d",
@@ -51,9 +51,9 @@
     "med_stake": 474,
     "avg_entry": 0.52,
     "train_n": 322,
-    "fwd_win": 99.3,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.06,
-    "fwd_n": 277
+    "fwd_win": 99.4,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.075,
+    "fwd_n": 308
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455",
@@ -223,6 +223,20 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": null,
     "fwd_n": 0
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4",
+    "name": "0x8e9eedf2",
+    "train_win": 70.9,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.536,
+    "train_z": 5.14,
+    "z_all": 13.37,
+    "med_stake": 3502,
+    "avg_entry": 0.62,
+    "train_n": 351,
+    "fwd_win": 82.0,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.414,
+    "fwd_n": 122
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0xc0fd10b1ad1202e9bcfb920c88c4d0af7cc3d036",
     "name": "0xc0fd10b1",
@@ -279,20 +293,6 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126,
     "fwd_n": 316
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4",
-    "name": "0x8e9eedf2",
-    "train_win": 70.9,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.437,
-    "train_z": 4.99,
-    "z_all": 13.36,
-    "med_stake": 3505,
-    "avg_entry": 0.62,
-    "train_n": 350,
-    "fwd_win": 82.0,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.414,
-    "fwd_n": 122
-  },
   {
     "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b",
     "name": "0xdf1ea9bb",
@@ -367,9 +367,9 @@
     "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37",
     "name": "0xe542afd3",
     "train_win": 68.4,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.378,
-    "train_z": 7.97,
-    "z_all": 14.61,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.379,
+    "train_z": 7.98,
+    "z_all": 14.63,
     "med_stake": 841,
     "avg_entry": 0.54,
     "train_n": 484,
@@ -377,6 +377,20 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": 0.26,
     "fwd_n": 210
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x2f53f2d2424d6592bce3d2522b048f6d542ad5ab",
+    "name": "0x2f53f2d2",
+    "train_win": 73.7,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.37,
+    "train_z": 1.85,
+    "z_all": 2.42,
+    "med_stake": 53,
+    "avg_entry": 0.53,
+    "train_n": 19,
+    "fwd_win": 54.1,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.028,
+    "fwd_n": 111
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x88ad3166c6cce6a1bf732050749089273252a1f3",
     "name": "0x88ad3166",
@@ -401,9 +415,9 @@
     "med_stake": 138,
     "avg_entry": 0.56,
     "train_n": 72,
-    "fwd_win": 70.7,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.193,
-    "fwd_n": 273
+    "fwd_win": 70.0,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.179,
+    "fwd_n": 280
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea",
@@ -485,9 +499,9 @@
     "med_stake": 117,
     "avg_entry": 0.54,
     "train_n": 71,
-    "fwd_win": 56.6,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.036,
-    "fwd_n": 53
+    "fwd_win": 54.9,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.005,
+    "fwd_n": 71
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x460d15ce9258fb8ce6a94d984574598d2f1c9d5f",
@@ -523,7 +537,7 @@
     "train_win": 89.6,
     "train_conv_roi": 0.271,
     "train_z": 3.09,
-    "z_all": 2.21,
+    "z_all": 2.22,
     "med_stake": 131,
     "avg_entry": 0.72,
     "train_n": 48,
@@ -569,9 +583,9 @@
     "med_stake": 165,
     "avg_entry": 0.65,
     "train_n": 35,
-    "fwd_win": 82.4,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.024,
-    "fwd_n": 17
+    "fwd_win": 83.3,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 1.02,
+    "fwd_n": 18
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2",
@@ -579,7 +593,7 @@
     "train_win": 81.2,
     "train_conv_roi": 0.23,
     "train_z": 3.76,
-    "z_all": 3.84,
+    "z_all": 3.96,
     "med_stake": 231,
     "avg_entry": 0.68,
     "train_n": 112,
@@ -611,9 +625,9 @@
     "med_stake": 355,
     "avg_entry": 0.71,
     "train_n": 166,
-    "fwd_win": 66.4,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.324,
-    "fwd_n": 217
+    "fwd_win": 66.7,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.318,
+    "fwd_n": 222
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@@ -747,7 +761,7 @@
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@@ -831,7 +845,7 @@
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@@ -1087,9 +1101,9 @@
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@@ -1125,7 +1139,7 @@
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@@ -1273,20 +1287,6 @@
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-  {
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     "name": "0x3746dc1e",
@@ -1315,6 +1315,20 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": -0.021,
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+  {
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     "wallet": "0x87909a89ee551c8616e5bff9089c81545bfd010b",
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@@ -1409,9 +1423,9 @@
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@@ -1467,7 +1481,7 @@
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live/copybot_live_full.json

@@ -1,36 +1,36 @@
 {
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@@ -38,8 +38,8 @@
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@@ -48,8 +48,8 @@
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@@ -69,18 +69,28 @@
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@@ -94,6 +104,302 @@
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@@ -108,13 +414,35 @@
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@@ -1003,28 +1331,6 @@
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-   "settled": null,
-   "end_ts": 1785542400,
-   "sold_shares": 19.625036535972274,
-   "sold_proceeds": 19.039331834314584
-  },
   {
    "token": "45276939554340428771698865022604030782253660716041002232668611227463504055173",
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -4544,8 +4850,8 @@
    "exit_price": null,
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null,
-   "sold_shares": 62.970071073834525,
-   "sold_proceeds": 60.614241461937546,
+   "sold_shares": 87.82469918750483,
+   "sold_proceeds": 85.36648043800103,
    "end_ts": 1809043200
   },
   {
@@ -4585,7 +4891,9 @@
    "exit_price": null,
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null,
-   "end_ts": 1798761600
+   "end_ts": 1798761600,
+   "sold_shares": 54.62747543342732,
+   "sold_proceeds": 51.818257509263326
   },
   {
    "token": "244048590847349569142622450288686721247802348946192951002087804863968899",
@@ -5129,6 +5437,347 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785254456,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "10729113877982954627733259296519930255153096234865579997117363600105394623598",
+   "cond": "0x31a3ddeea7de2cede5400708fa2916a3d9e14e57aef68737a358027a84f88943",
+   "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.1124,
+   "stake": 28.32,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785253756,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "55747552002095525592184246353402214181358260885453816054765586513715468529042",
+   "cond": "0xb35cf8fea60478adec7f4bf9fff35d42cea26c2c68b5afda2f2f5871232cd310",
+   "title": "Bitcoin above 64,000 on July 28, 12PM ET?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.48,
+   "stake": 33.95,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (92s)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785252427,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "42255817850096714307727261256815922486155091845919156053691558108406981739401",
+   "cond": "0x3008f783badb62b8e95c23d121209a0e3f3b77d3d7026772d6f00889a91d42f2",
+   "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 28?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.8301,
+   "stake": 55.21,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785242388,
+   "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+   "token": "24287003028980466247187044550266063653998500972848075666609032620527619393071",
+   "cond": "0x7f4a0faa0782fd295dac8587db732728d18d7547f689f3f9ec9cd210cd08e69b",
+   "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET",
+   "outcome": "Up",
+   "price": 0.4629,
+   "stake": 135.4,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 25.14,
+   "settled": 1785244368,
+   "name": "1kto1m",
+   "exit_price": 0.5637
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785236078,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "36265250796161854432369131892129450974997795066135083465560318874244070874973",
+   "cond": "0xc303a9de6d4671bb428d41cc1014db4c0ce4ad56a6f19ce6a2a5807ecf393f6a",
+   "title": "Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.71,
+   "stake": 40.0,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (91s)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": -0.7,
+   "settled": 1785240379,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.7099
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785237314,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "58439042405851389569374765202464187342355223435744588096613828375820301761935",
+   "cond": "0xf6b798166e4afc0cb21e1221c34270a9ce3f3594b6692de3507a9c352020feba",
+   "title": "Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.62,
+   "stake": 135.4,
+   "reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1784943181,
+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "token": "101732096022791033420874767768998282176255049842341266029460503775596933298889",
+   "cond": "0xf12648e8f9b52f1d6d2fa8aafd965df15544876cecf53fc1be6c0ab178bbc814",
+   "title": "Will \"The Odyssey\" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.46,
+   "stake": 125.36,
+   "reason": "thin book ($1 within 5c < $50)",
+   "status": "lost",
+   "pnl": -127.39,
+   "settled": 1785196825,
+   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
+   "exit_checked": true
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785191856,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489",
+   "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5",
+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.55,
+   "stake": 135.36,
+   "reason": "price moved 0.47\u21920.55",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 17.31,
+   "settled": 1785196176,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.6347
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785102628,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "11175144790294018473883407522370233749764592141943374533997532765754332298932",
+   "cond": "0x1a53f4e1df8653751aa2865bdf33129c9fba1b51a6ba3a4397c330894265f3fb",
+   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "Down",
+   "price": 0.82,
+   "stake": 63.89,
+   "reason": "thin book ($35 within 5c < $50)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 7.62,
+   "settled": 1785194160,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9243
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785192601,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "80566427864683264408132975495806825930535536706191596908698304900201437338755",
+   "cond": "0xfcaddf3ef2d9f976e0c9673ed54c380bdc3338d02ab0fa8aa7f22960f594e964",
+   "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on July 28?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.68,
+   "stake": 7.18,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (102s)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 2.01,
+   "settled": 1785192830,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.88
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785182570,
+   "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
+   "token": "115289753838857732506008126031819274849142757215567510934288229988887639669500",
+   "cond": "0xb4b758f84d9c2acd555dfe98b2ce9b817ef3935a955688254545d290f5d5baa4",
+   "title": "Fritz vs. Bergs: Match O/U 22.5",
+   "outcome": "Under",
+   "price": 0.58,
+   "stake": 5.15,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (76s)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.94,
+   "settled": 1785182726,
+   "name": "Kruto2027",
+   "exit_price": 0.7
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139689,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
+   "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
+   "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.77,
+   "stake": 133.64,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (62s)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 39.0,
+   "settled": 1785172559,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
+   "exit_price": 1.0
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785162430,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "65075316665858123310904205342608300814898488753088658332913116406808619343398",
+   "cond": "0x6899f21b3a3d26c8ae9d0332c25d160fc08b9c3b834f0d8fe116d2ec87905dc9",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $130 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.5463,
+   "stake": 33.91,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785126129,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "74119673575030259137547668301986785745647371043511033522238877972140940630607",
+   "cond": "0x40ef6ee7a563f8d48f60ad06cd27e175b070a5e2d48df2c42bc4f62091dcdd42",
+   "title": "Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.7487,
+   "stake": 93.58,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "won",
+   "pnl": 30.7,
+   "settled": 1785160376,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_checked": true
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785145662,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "109560195847127443718098720993839508458395767835235641294925271566812897320563",
+   "cond": "0xcdf022c2b67b00eeb6325e4f2e7471cc6db10f907185b12f0a1d5f41b5f64b11",
+   "title": "LoL: Solary vs Esprit Sh\u014dnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season",
+   "outcome": "Solary",
+   "price": 0.88,
+   "stake": 133.76,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (133s)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785145529,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "44947152591637181972300049650785829928165871645008039071331001566404599378498",
+   "cond": "0x26df9caa9bf1d7d5a3454ba68aebc046a48e25b65e1c70c972268c20fa7c8ec2",
+   "title": "LoL: Solary vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season",
+   "outcome": "Solary",
+   "price": 0.7931,
+   "stake": 133.76,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (95s)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785128135,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45008911945219735557521805884729456911272112830419157569734797577265875509979",
+   "cond": "0x44a785ee8973526fd587f902739da9579f29b2326a77d0f2040e480ecc6263c7",
+   "title": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.5548,
+   "stake": 31.16,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785116183,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "16328984566017971835770196682876409647533162437093057559133710618426804960492",
+   "cond": "0x0b0d65e39a6b3a67c9bc4eae0a80a18de26c79a03b2882f42c67f5da637f30c2",
+   "title": "Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $166 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.6281,
+   "stake": 32.13,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 14.57,
+   "settled": 1785118193,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9221
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785114042,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "87696708406779453134902801895465089795764350419182531911213489596972812010552",
+   "cond": "0x726f8c733ea83c15eb7bf25eca3fb324440c78a49fd2e233138214c69cdb46f0",
+   "title": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.68,
+   "stake": 22.36,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (66s)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1784966431,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "3901986631446153023403890805451260510191347162609117497694534689649201812603",
+   "cond": "0x6d440b85cbe22665a737fa92e1d698aebae32754d627e8f4214b5e258de7b05d",
+   "title": "Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.723,
+   "stake": 7.31,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (70s)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 1.65,
+   "settled": 1785112193,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.895
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785110815,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "48824398491280100431239513921328336173859523998182185336991038266268084020611",
+   "cond": "0xceb1b54f8e0fa8fb4d240b042505ec7681715758a89f82b3e356a003094c8438",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.67,
+   "stake": 62.66,
+   "reason": "thin book ($21 within 5c < $50)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785110779,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "35886998552783861513685353913940426093865851929878480433719442414123918040441",
+   "cond": "0x61eb75dae104f136d5946682f241c554f6282f81a4489285d134170526be41e0",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.49,
+   "stake": 61.02,
+   "reason": "thin book ($7 within 5c < $50)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1784990183,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -5146,21 +5795,6 @@
    "exit_checked": true,
    "exit_price": 0.8766
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785102628,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "11175144790294018473883407522370233749764592141943374533997532765754332298932",
-   "cond": "0x1a53f4e1df8653751aa2865bdf33129c9fba1b51a6ba3a4397c330894265f3fb",
-   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 27?",
-   "outcome": "Down",
-   "price": 0.82,
-   "stake": 63.89,
-   "reason": "thin book ($35 within 5c < $50)",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785086253,
    "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -5320,21 +5954,6 @@
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_price": 0.9072
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784966431,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "3901986631446153023403890805451260510191347162609117497694534689649201812603",
-   "cond": "0x6d440b85cbe22665a737fa92e1d698aebae32754d627e8f4214b5e258de7b05d",
-   "title": "Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.723,
-   "stake": 7.31,
-   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (70s)",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1784957802,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -5351,21 +5970,6 @@
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_price": 0.9091
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784943181,
-   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-   "token": "101732096022791033420874767768998282176255049842341266029460503775596933298889",
-   "cond": "0xf12648e8f9b52f1d6d2fa8aafd965df15544876cecf53fc1be6c0ab178bbc814",
-   "title": "Will \"The Odyssey\" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.46,
-   "stake": 125.36,
-   "reason": "thin book ($1 within 5c < $50)",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1784856070,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -8223,7 +8827,7 @@
    "status": "sold",
    "pnl": -0.64,
    "settled": 1783634212,
-   "name": "LSB1",
+   "name": "0x41558102",
    "exit_price": 0.8594
   },
   {

live/copybot_live_real.json

@@ -5,18 +5,19 @@
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 63.02,
- "cash": 17.44,
- "deployed": 31.21,
+ "cash": 22.48,
+ "deployed": 26.07,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": -27.21,
+ "realized": -27.31,
  "adjustments": 9.44,
  "ledger_drift": 0.03,
  "open_count": 15,
- "fees_paid": 3.61,
+ "fees_paid": 3.62,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
   "n": 127,
   "n24": 0,
+  "basis": "lifetime",
   "avg_s": 25.4,
   "avg_slip_pct": 0.0213,
   "window_h": 24
@@ -2120,21 +2121,6 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
-  {
-   "ts": 1785103318,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "73772414999817992515088687755193145487336993356690533986692595350122387340288",
-   "cond": "0x0cc87d69aedb41c2960de6c155f9b444241c9d7d375214c70b14a3262b010846",
-   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on July 27?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.92,
-   "stake": 1.0,
-   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xfad089f06ed65e22afbfd8dffffae8ce34b36df34",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785102626,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2145,6 +2131,334 @@
    "price": 0.82,
    "stake": 1.0,
    "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.994",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.12,
+   "settled": 1785194132,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9243
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785192499,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "80566427864683264408132975495806825930535536706191596908698304900201437338755",
+   "cond": "0xfcaddf3ef2d9f976e0c9673ed54c380bdc3338d02ab0fa8aa7f22960f594e964",
+   "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on July 28?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.65,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xa2d10630247477eb272c5a0ed40a7d8a82f013468",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.34,
+   "settled": 1785192769,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.88
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785191856,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45691138284392247799480039269191461630142831037707390402697922072569909819489",
+   "cond": "0xec8fb126cb6166a24fe41ca44772fb092efd591ffa9e8a8bd27b292f3353a6b5",
+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.55,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "price moved 0.47\u21920.55",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785191856,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
+   "cond": "0x7f0d84b155c484b801f2cba68eb0f9ef8b2a0a54b7e6bb0fa53a1778964f53fd",
+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.39,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.996",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785130838,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "79670417518965340166637380137891741750752210241055933511013597289989925437928",
+   "cond": "0xe682172dec68535c41b59d24d80803f4522b6ec3bcd6a7343d32c0a720bfec53",
+   "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "Up",
+   "price": 0.89,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.999",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": -0.03,
+   "settled": 1785184789,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.8669
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785182494,
+   "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
+   "token": "115289753838857732506008126031819274849142757215567510934288229988887639669500",
+   "cond": "0xb4b758f84d9c2acd555dfe98b2ce9b817ef3935a955688254545d290f5d5baa4",
+   "title": "Fritz vs. Bergs: Match O/U 22.5",
+   "outcome": "Under",
+   "price": 0.61,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xe91744d4b0b591902a6b4e052905ed05e6e56d512",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.13,
+   "settled": 1785182797,
+   "name": "Kruto2027",
+   "exit_price": 0.7
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785166433,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286",
+   "cond": "0x5e0190c0160f075a95fd5034b1d97d2245ef0c1ccb725fcbbadfc54db2ac8028",
+   "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.74,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xdeb8c90090edaa13a833d8e808b20f321941b5741",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.26,
+   "settled": 1785176778,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9363
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139619,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
+   "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
+   "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.77,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xb23969cb2a9cd69d6a772789997b02201afd4881f",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.29,
+   "settled": 1785172789,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
+   "exit_price": 1.0
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785162758,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "65075316665858123310904205342608300814898488753088658332913116406808619343398",
+   "cond": "0x6899f21b3a3d26c8ae9d0332c25d160fc08b9c3b834f0d8fe116d2ec87905dc9",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $130 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.5463,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785111590,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228",
+   "cond": "0x1b158a9177d2b8cb17144844069b93753c2578ace89a07d06fe1872c86ff8e90",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.44,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.995",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.82,
+   "settled": 1785160792,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.8122
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785126941,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "74119673575030259137547668301986785745647371043511033522238877972140940630607",
+   "cond": "0x40ef6ee7a563f8d48f60ad06cd27e175b070a5e2d48df2c42bc4f62091dcdd42",
+   "title": "Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.7487,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "won",
+   "pnl": 0.33,
+   "settled": 1785160321,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_checked": true
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139495,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "5093836280630653877561190382016580808144147177143767913302616853585042535941",
+   "cond": "0xd58aa21e48555a4f12eaf634bf513b10d00e380c365a13d90d725d774f5efd23",
+   "title": "LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.87,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.994",
+   "status": "won",
+   "pnl": 0.15,
+   "settled": 1785153399,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
+   "exit_checked": true
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785145522,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "109560195847127443718098720993839508458395767835235641294925271566812897320563",
+   "cond": "0xcdf022c2b67b00eeb6325e4f2e7471cc6db10f907185b12f0a1d5f41b5f64b11",
+   "title": "LoL: Solary vs Esprit Sh\u014dnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season",
+   "outcome": "Solary",
+   "price": 0.88,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0x3c811b9bf6510a7c361b4fab91abf5cd065a955b0",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785145428,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "44947152591637181972300049650785829928165871645008039071331001566404599378498",
+   "cond": "0x26df9caa9bf1d7d5a3454ba68aebc046a48e25b65e1c70c972268c20fa7c8ec2",
+   "title": "LoL: Solary vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season",
+   "outcome": "Solary",
+   "price": 0.8,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: price must conform to tick size 0.01 with at most",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1784824895,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "78639892723644623147617890032845605442018473848411325154446303980329931711515",
+   "cond": "0xe9ab976f5c3b9c65ea229b1a7890ba92da55c06a8c5dfe6c911320d5ecfa6a9f",
+   "title": "Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in July?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.887,
+   "stake": 2.52,
+   "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): exception: no orders found to match with FAK order. FAK orde",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.18,
+   "settled": 1785144823,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9537
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785127066,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "52897893276285627510690194142963884799788689807458708980439810896103687693971",
+   "cond": "0x0cabaf08be1954680599a1cc5d3f715558d8880b6bcb819d2e32ca404c400b35",
+   "title": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.89,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf39bb935be7758beecfda001d2c312f3bc218be4f",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.11,
+   "settled": 1785130889,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9873
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785128918,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45008911945219735557521805884729456911272112830419157569734797577265875509979",
+   "cond": "0x44a785ee8973526fd587f902739da9579f29b2326a77d0f2040e480ecc6263c7",
+   "title": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.5548,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785103318,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "73772414999817992515088687755193145487336993356690533986692595350122387340288",
+   "cond": "0x0cc87d69aedb41c2960de6c155f9b444241c9d7d375214c70b14a3262b010846",
+   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.92,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xfad089f06ed65e22afbfd8dffffae8ce34b36df34",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.06,
+   "settled": 1785117130,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9762
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785113978,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "87696708406779453134902801895465089795764350419182531911213489596972812010552",
+   "cond": "0x726f8c733ea83c15eb7bf25eca3fb324440c78a49fd2e233138214c69cdb46f0",
+   "title": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.67,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf215688810e41d482a5d17e580dea6a7ece262957",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785009018,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "3901986631446153023403890805451260510191347162609117497694534689649201812603",
+   "cond": "0x6d440b85cbe22665a737fa92e1d698aebae32754d627e8f4214b5e258de7b05d",
+   "title": "Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.723,
+   "stake": 2.02,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.46,
+   "settled": 1785113169,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.895
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785110815,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "48824398491280100431239513921328336173859523998182185336991038266268084020611",
+   "cond": "0xceb1b54f8e0fa8fb4d240b042505ec7681715758a89f82b3e356a003094c8438",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.67,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "thin book ($21 within 5c < $50)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785110779,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "35886998552783861513685353913940426093865851929878480433719442414123918040441",
+   "cond": "0x61eb75dae104f136d5946682f241c554f6282f81a4489285d134170526be41e0",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.49,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "thin book ($7 within 5c < $50)",
    "status": "open",
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null,
@@ -2372,22 +2686,6 @@
    "name": "AIcAIc",
    "exit_price": 0.95
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1783908976,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "44955835255986870213886955575315970674806073263991248758756749076487124445148",
-   "cond": "0xa164172b7cee74420cfce554c3a265b2553cb80e48b36e286e67f302b6574712",
-   "title": "Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.8163,
-   "stake": 1.0,
-   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": -0.0,
-   "settled": 1785012975,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "exit_price": 0.822
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785009018,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2466,21 +2764,6 @@
    "settled": null,
    "name": "0xbadaf319"
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785009018,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "3901986631446153023403890805451260510191347162609117497694534689649201812603",
-   "cond": "0x6d440b85cbe22665a737fa92e1d698aebae32754d627e8f4214b5e258de7b05d",
-   "title": "Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.723,
-   "stake": 2.02,
-   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785009018,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2779,303 +3062,16 @@
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null,
    "name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784885070,
-   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
-   "token": "34383281909044259756215667723509413820839811815716463480957480797279993360122",
-   "cond": "0xa2822aa2467aca2d04968c26fd5444d88fb54c4dc5f8eac7d27d84a494ac8b50",
-   "title": "LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner",
-   "outcome": "Team WE",
-   "price": 0.65,
-   "stake": 2.42,
-   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf108bfade0b5c26134b80f55a6f4d9451bfd28517",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": 1.09,
-   "settled": 1784887137,
-   "name": "AIcAIc",
-   "exit_price": 0.95
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784557345,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "67913011466625262359588841481742993497498081452195278087275807248301608894093",
-   "cond": "0x6abe5fe01ca113b7d6040604a8619cadf181d4e4a6d8db3a082542417af806fd",
-   "title": "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?",
-   "outcome": "Yes",
-   "price": 0.824,
-   "stake": 2.41,
-   "reason": "thin book ($4 within 5c < $50)",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": 0.12,
-   "settled": 1784887134,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "exit_price": 0.8729
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784438883,
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-   "title": "Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?",
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-   "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?",
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-   "title": "LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty - Game 1 Winner",
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-   "title": "Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in July?",
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-   "title": "Hibernian FC to score first vs. FC Malisheva?",
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-   "reason": "thin book ($29 within 5c < $50)",
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-   "title": "Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in July?",
-   "outcome": "No",
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-   "stake": 2.51,
-   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
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-   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $138 Week of July 20 2026?",
-   "outcome": "No",
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-   "title": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
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-   "reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time",
-   "status": "open",
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-   "title": "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?",
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-   "title": "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?",
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- "missed_pnl": 1725.68,
+ "missed_pnl": 702.78,
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+  "ts": 1785175095,
   "side": "SELL",
-  "price": 0.95,
-  "shares": 2.3,
-  "title": "LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner",
-  "outcome": "Karmine Corp"
+  "price": 0.963,
+  "shares": 0.25,
+  "title": "Amazon 2026 capex above $180B?",
+  "outcome": "Yes"
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  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
@@ -3084,8 +3080,8 @@
    "wins": 7,
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+   "miss_n": 96,
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@@ -3134,8 +3130,8 @@
    "wins": 1,
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-   "miss_n": 3,
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@@ -3154,8 +3150,8 @@
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@@ -3164,8 +3160,8 @@
    "wins": 0,
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-   "miss_n": 0,
-   "miss_pnl": 0.0,
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@@ -3174,8 +3170,8 @@
    "wins": 0,
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+   "miss_n": 20,
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   "0xd96750bf": {
@@ -3189,5 +3185,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
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  },
- "updated": 1785104762
+ "updated": 1785194134
 }

live/copybot_live_real_full.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
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- "updated": 1785104762,
+ "updated": 1785194134,
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@@ -8,8 +8,8 @@
    "wins": 7,
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-   "miss_n": 83,
-   "miss_pnl": 1731.6,
+   "miss_n": 96,
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@@ -58,8 +58,8 @@
    "wins": 1,
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@@ -78,8 +78,8 @@
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@@ -88,8 +88,8 @@
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@@ -98,8 +98,8 @@
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+   "miss_n": 20,
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@@ -2531,8 +2531,8 @@
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-   "sold_shares": 0.55,
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@@ -2822,25 +2822,12 @@
    "exit_price": null,
    "pnl": null,
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-   "end_ts": 1798761600
+   "end_ts": 1798761600,
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-   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on July 27?",
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@@ -2851,6 +2838,334 @@
    "price": 0.82,
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+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
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+   "cond": "0xfcaddf3ef2d9f976e0c9673ed54c380bdc3338d02ab0fa8aa7f22960f594e964",
+   "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on July 28?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
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+   "stake": 1.0,
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+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?",
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+   "reason": "price moved 0.47\u21920.55",
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+   "cond": "0x7f0d84b155c484b801f2cba68eb0f9ef8b2a0a54b7e6bb0fa53a1778964f53fd",
+   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
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+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.996",
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+   "cond": "0xe682172dec68535c41b59d24d80803f4522b6ec3bcd6a7343d32c0a720bfec53",
+   "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "Up",
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+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.999",
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+   "ts": 1785182494,
+   "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
+   "token": "115289753838857732506008126031819274849142757215567510934288229988887639669500",
+   "cond": "0xb4b758f84d9c2acd555dfe98b2ce9b817ef3935a955688254545d290f5d5baa4",
+   "title": "Fritz vs. Bergs: Match O/U 22.5",
+   "outcome": "Under",
+   "price": 0.61,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xe91744d4b0b591902a6b4e052905ed05e6e56d512",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.13,
+   "settled": 1785182797,
+   "name": "Kruto2027",
+   "exit_price": 0.7
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785166433,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286",
+   "cond": "0x5e0190c0160f075a95fd5034b1d97d2245ef0c1ccb725fcbbadfc54db2ac8028",
+   "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.74,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xdeb8c90090edaa13a833d8e808b20f321941b5741",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.26,
+   "settled": 1785176778,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9363
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139619,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
+   "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
+   "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.77,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xb23969cb2a9cd69d6a772789997b02201afd4881f",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.29,
+   "settled": 1785172789,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
+   "exit_price": 1.0
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785162758,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "65075316665858123310904205342608300814898488753088658332913116406808619343398",
+   "cond": "0x6899f21b3a3d26c8ae9d0332c25d160fc08b9c3b834f0d8fe116d2ec87905dc9",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $130 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.5463,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785111590,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228",
+   "cond": "0x1b158a9177d2b8cb17144844069b93753c2578ace89a07d06fe1872c86ff8e90",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.44,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.995",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.82,
+   "settled": 1785160792,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.8122
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785126941,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "74119673575030259137547668301986785745647371043511033522238877972140940630607",
+   "cond": "0x40ef6ee7a563f8d48f60ad06cd27e175b070a5e2d48df2c42bc4f62091dcdd42",
+   "title": "Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.7487,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "won",
+   "pnl": 0.33,
+   "settled": 1785160321,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_checked": true
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139495,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "5093836280630653877561190382016580808144147177143767913302616853585042535941",
+   "cond": "0xd58aa21e48555a4f12eaf634bf513b10d00e380c365a13d90d725d774f5efd23",
+   "title": "LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.87,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: invalid amount for a marketable BUY order ($0.994",
+   "status": "won",
+   "pnl": 0.15,
+   "settled": 1785153399,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
+   "exit_checked": true
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785145522,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "109560195847127443718098720993839508458395767835235641294925271566812897320563",
+   "cond": "0xcdf022c2b67b00eeb6325e4f2e7471cc6db10f907185b12f0a1d5f41b5f64b11",
+   "title": "LoL: Solary vs Esprit Sh\u014dnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season",
+   "outcome": "Solary",
+   "price": 0.88,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0x3c811b9bf6510a7c361b4fab91abf5cd065a955b0",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785145428,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "44947152591637181972300049650785829928165871645008039071331001566404599378498",
+   "cond": "0x26df9caa9bf1d7d5a3454ba68aebc046a48e25b65e1c70c972268c20fa7c8ec2",
+   "title": "LoL: Solary vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season",
+   "outcome": "Solary",
+   "price": 0.8,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: price must conform to tick size 0.01 with at most",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1784824895,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "78639892723644623147617890032845605442018473848411325154446303980329931711515",
+   "cond": "0xe9ab976f5c3b9c65ea229b1a7890ba92da55c06a8c5dfe6c911320d5ecfa6a9f",
+   "title": "Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in July?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.887,
+   "stake": 2.52,
+   "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): exception: no orders found to match with FAK order. FAK orde",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.18,
+   "settled": 1785144823,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9537
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785127066,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "52897893276285627510690194142963884799788689807458708980439810896103687693971",
+   "cond": "0x0cabaf08be1954680599a1cc5d3f715558d8880b6bcb819d2e32ca404c400b35",
+   "title": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.89,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf39bb935be7758beecfda001d2c312f3bc218be4f",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.11,
+   "settled": 1785130889,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9873
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785128918,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "45008911945219735557521805884729456911272112830419157569734797577265875509979",
+   "cond": "0x44a785ee8973526fd587f902739da9579f29b2326a77d0f2040e480ecc6263c7",
+   "title": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.5548,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785103318,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "73772414999817992515088687755193145487336993356690533986692595350122387340288",
+   "cond": "0x0cc87d69aedb41c2960de6c155f9b444241c9d7d375214c70b14a3262b010846",
+   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on July 27?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.92,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xfad089f06ed65e22afbfd8dffffae8ce34b36df34",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.06,
+   "settled": 1785117130,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.9762
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785113978,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "87696708406779453134902801895465089795764350419182531911213489596972812010552",
+   "cond": "0x726f8c733ea83c15eb7bf25eca3fb324440c78a49fd2e233138214c69cdb46f0",
+   "title": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.67,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf215688810e41d482a5d17e580dea6a7ece262957",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785009018,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "3901986631446153023403890805451260510191347162609117497694534689649201812603",
+   "cond": "0x6d440b85cbe22665a737fa92e1d698aebae32754d627e8f4214b5e258de7b05d",
+   "title": "Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.723,
+   "stake": 2.02,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "sold",
+   "pnl": 0.46,
+   "settled": 1785113169,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "exit_price": 0.895
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785110815,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "48824398491280100431239513921328336173859523998182185336991038266268084020611",
+   "cond": "0xceb1b54f8e0fa8fb4d240b042505ec7681715758a89f82b3e356a003094c8438",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.67,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "thin book ($21 within 5c < $50)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785110779,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "35886998552783861513685353913940426093865851929878480433719442414123918040441",
+   "cond": "0x61eb75dae104f136d5946682f241c554f6282f81a4489285d134170526be41e0",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.49,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "thin book ($7 within 5c < $50)",
    "status": "open",
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null,
@@ -3172,21 +3487,6 @@
    "settled": null,
    "name": "0xbadaf319"
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785009018,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "3901986631446153023403890805451260510191347162609117497694534689649201812603",
-   "cond": "0x6d440b85cbe22665a737fa92e1d698aebae32754d627e8f4214b5e258de7b05d",
-   "title": "Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.723,
-   "stake": 2.02,
-   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1785009018,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -3646,21 +3946,6 @@
    "name": "Kruto2027",
    "exit_checked": true
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784824895,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "78639892723644623147617890032845605442018473848411325154446303980329931711515",
-   "cond": "0xe9ab976f5c3b9c65ea229b1a7890ba92da55c06a8c5dfe6c911320d5ecfa6a9f",
-   "title": "Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in July?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.887,
-   "stake": 2.52,
-   "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): exception: no orders found to match with FAK order. FAK orde",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1784818262,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -5835,7 +6120,7 @@
    "status": "sold",
    "pnl": 0.0,
    "settled": 1783899291,
-   "name": "LSB1",
+   "name": "0x41558102",
    "exit_price": 1.0
   },
   {
@@ -5851,7 +6136,7 @@
    "status": "lost",
    "pnl": -1.01,
    "settled": 1783898972,
-   "name": "LSB1",
+   "name": "0x41558102",
    "exit_checked": true
   },
   {
@@ -5946,7 +6231,7 @@
    "status": "lost",
    "pnl": -1.01,
    "settled": 1783867047,
-   "name": "LSB1",
+   "name": "0x41558102",
    "exit_checked": true
   },
   {

live/watch_skilled.json

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xf419556a9758214628edff29dce8f39a8aa13ce7",
     "name": "2j289uUmAio7ap245975",
-    "weight": 0.0549,
+    "weight": 0.0619,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 17.91,
     "z_oos": 9.49,
@@ -14,19 +14,19 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4",
     "name": "Siziriv",
-    "weight": 0.0456,
+    "weight": 0.0515,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 14.89,
-    "z_oos": 7.6,
-    "n": 2441,
-    "win_rate": 50.6,
+    "z_oos": 7.55,
+    "n": 2450,
+    "win_rate": 50.8,
     "avg_entry": 0.44,
     "band_0204": 0.02
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x2257901897e83d39e778fa86d568dc1cd9a2dca2",
     "name": "iuii899889",
-    "weight": 0.0306,
+    "weight": 0.0345,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 9.99,
     "z_oos": 6.55,
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xda24f0caf5766fc36df8ac2f6ae3a567b71a9f1f",
     "name": "Thewinwin",
-    "weight": 0.0281,
+    "weight": 0.0317,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 9.18,
     "z_oos": 6.84,
@@ -50,7 +50,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x14d2bf01e3e7bac9b1799265db3c7d8a993dfa3e",
     "name": "8998yueyye",
-    "weight": 0.0279,
+    "weight": 0.0315,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 9.12,
     "z_oos": 5.97,
@@ -59,58 +59,46 @@
     "avg_entry": 0.39,
     "band_0204": 0.25
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0xf508f2dde64316531b4eab2f0956636b9dd63a0e",
-    "name": "0xf508f2dd\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.026,
-    "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 8.5,
-    "z_oos": 5.94,
-    "n": 2045,
-    "win_rate": 21.9,
-    "avg_entry": 0.16,
-    "band_0204": 0.24
-  },
   {
     "wallet": "0xf1a437dc0ac31303fbc288d1b1dbaf7e7f4c9779",
     "name": "0xd0C09b7e25f88eFfde2",
-    "weight": 0.0251,
+    "weight": 0.0288,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 8.2,
-    "z_oos": 6.41,
-    "n": 2221,
-    "win_rate": 36.7,
+    "z": 8.34,
+    "z_oos": 6.62,
+    "n": 2237,
+    "win_rate": 37.1,
     "avg_entry": 0.3,
     "band_0204": 0.25
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x2f633efb75256a2f2445110c8978684ab8936643",
-    "name": "AI.AGENT.2026",
-    "weight": 0.0247,
+    "wallet": "0xf508f2dde64316531b4eab2f0956636b9dd63a0e",
+    "name": "0xf508f2dd\u2026",
+    "weight": 0.0287,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 8.08,
-    "z_oos": 4.46,
-    "n": 652,
-    "win_rate": 92.6,
-    "avg_entry": 0.83,
-    "band_0204": 0.05
+    "z": 8.29,
+    "z_oos": 5.3,
+    "n": 2181,
+    "win_rate": 21.2,
+    "avg_entry": 0.15,
+    "band_0204": 0.23
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x1b44945f8992fcea2b43034557e47d11827fd8de",
     "name": "BrickThrower",
-    "weight": 0.0237,
+    "weight": 0.027,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 7.74,
-    "z_oos": 5.58,
-    "n": 2362,
-    "win_rate": 44.3,
+    "z": 7.81,
+    "z_oos": 5.87,
+    "n": 2414,
+    "win_rate": 44.0,
     "avg_entry": 0.38,
     "band_0204": 0.24
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046",
     "name": "hfdffdhr",
-    "weight": 0.0224,
+    "weight": 0.0253,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 7.31,
     "z_oos": 4.99,
@@ -119,46 +107,34 @@
     "avg_entry": 0.41,
     "band_0204": 0.2
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x47946decc4e4aafee23df84d6bf1a4b3c6c2ba33",
+    "name": "0x47946Decc4e4AAFee23df84D6Bf1A4B3C6c2ba33-1783372491387",
+    "weight": 0.0234,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 6.76,
+    "z_oos": 2.64,
+    "n": 1668,
+    "win_rate": 28.6,
+    "avg_entry": 0.22,
+    "band_0204": 0.27
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x5da978e2df4d17bfe7214c017e2151d4b827ce46",
     "name": "Skovie",
-    "weight": 0.0206,
+    "weight": 0.0231,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 6.72,
-    "z_oos": 6.71,
-    "n": 976,
-    "win_rate": 30.8,
+    "z": 6.69,
+    "z_oos": 6.55,
+    "n": 998,
+    "win_rate": 31.0,
     "avg_entry": 0.23,
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     "name": "0x4b51d90a\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.019,
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@@ -167,14 +143,26 @@
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+  {
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+    "name": "0x657b0517a6599F82aDA5281817041165c4E843c1-1782796906468",
+    "weight": 0.0213,
+    "tier": "validated",
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+    "z_oos": 2.64,
+    "n": 1336,
+    "win_rate": 35.0,
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     "wallet": "0xc850cf70d9da621ff0c219f625c9623f88b78c51",
     "name": "0xc850cf70\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.0171,
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-    "z_oos": 5.08,
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+    "z": 5.56,
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@@ -182,31 +170,19 @@
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     "name": "0xa75f077c\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.0169,
+    "weight": 0.0189,
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-    "z_oos": 3.12,
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+    "z": 5.46,
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-    "win_rate": 90.1,
-    "avg_entry": 0.88,
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     "name": "napahp",
-    "weight": 0.0165,
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@@ -218,23 +194,23 @@
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     "name": "0xf3d54cce\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.0161,
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-    "z_oos": 2.76,
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-    "win_rate": 50.0,
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     "wallet": "0x751a2b86cab503496efd325c8344e10159349ea1",
     "name": "Sharky6999",
-    "weight": 0.0159,
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-    "z_oos": 3.85,
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+    "z": 5.21,
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@@ -242,11 +218,11 @@
   {
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     "name": "PWBR",
-    "weight": 0.0154,
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@@ -254,7 +230,7 @@
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@@ -266,139 +242,115 @@
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     "name": "0x13289e4d\u2026",
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     "name": "0x9e8af884\u2026",
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+    "wallet": "0xb615ca2e43ac4d650bbd352de56643989b546d93",
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+    "name": "aka-baka-tiki-taka",
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     "name": "STAYCALM",
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+  {
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+    "win_rate": 35.9,
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@@ -410,7 +362,7 @@
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     "name": "0x4d6a0541\u2026",
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@@ -422,7 +374,7 @@
   {
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@@ -432,21 +384,21 @@
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+    "wallet": "0x111a20cb89e66593229f90fffb92fe5a765caceb",
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     "name": "kaslas",
-    "weight": 0.0127,
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@@ -455,38 +407,14 @@
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   {
     "wallet": "0x48270d81cfe598ae0379ca535a26dc41e3e9080d",
     "name": "DiogoBNF566",
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     "tier": "validated",
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-    "n": 2006,
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@@ -494,7 +422,7 @@
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@@ -506,7 +434,7 @@
   {
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-    "weight": 0.0117,
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@@ -516,45 +444,33 @@
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-    "name": "Bigbang4",
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+    "wallet": "0xdb04e241eee2c21326cdce044b43b982fba8bfe1",
+    "name": "0xdB04e241eEe2C21326cDCE044B43b982fba8bFE1-1780908621030",
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+    "wallet": "0x0daff95741ef98945657a52ee4bd8e525ef217a9",
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-    "win_rate": 27.5,
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     "wallet": "0xdeca32428d5cf4b1c4d7266a950e20791676ddd5",
     "name": "durrrrrrrr",
-    "weight": 0.0112,
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@@ -564,21 +480,21 @@
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-    "wallet": "0xd92f13f9c20e5739aae98032e443b13d9d823d83",
-    "name": "follwmee",
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+    "wallet": "0x6d5922a5c641890fad61d810ce09b6c9f066b1b3",
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     "wallet": "0xc265ab3fad6092a5a28cbb72bdef33e6eaced5ab",
     "name": "0xc265ab3f\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.0102,
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@@ -590,7 +506,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xe75b11fa4fa01db5f11743e5f40df6c23b8e97eb",
     "name": "sleepyzs",
-    "weight": 0.0101,
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@@ -602,7 +518,7 @@
   {
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     "name": "0x6D3C9fE9CB9A7e006C99b13bDd0451aB5059C74a-1775205794013",
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@@ -614,7 +530,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x46b2f8a865a3572a435813e747e22cce0e835977",
     "name": "quantssss",
-    "weight": 0.0101,
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@@ -626,7 +542,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x536be02af900fe046fa708c8059c04f737a2cee3",
     "name": "fill-or-fok-me",
-    "weight": 0.01,
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@@ -636,21 +552,21 @@
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   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x97026acc2fcbfc70420f3792ba612e5abb67ca89",
-    "name": "SERINAITE",
-    "weight": 0.01,
+    "wallet": "0x3db61e79ee7afbd4ed101a9fc497c05f679acb34",
+    "name": "0x3db61e79\u2026",
+    "weight": 0.0113,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.26,
-    "z_oos": 2.8,
-    "n": 1713,
-    "win_rate": 37.5,
-    "avg_entry": 0.34,
-    "band_0204": 0.44
+    "z": 3.28,
+    "z_oos": 2.93,
+    "n": 1854,
+    "win_rate": 59.7,
+    "avg_entry": 0.56,
+    "band_0204": 0.13
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x4f7d834c2292157e8c1c34653a60dff3cd8ab3ff",
     "name": "52463434",
-    "weight": 0.0099,
+    "weight": 0.0112,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.23,
     "z_oos": 1.06,
@@ -662,7 +578,7 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0x9807ef11efccde6399f6e2fa410de357092192f4",
     "name": "0x9807ef11\u2026",
-    "weight": 0.0099,
+    "weight": 0.0111,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.22,
     "z_oos": 2.09,
@@ -672,33 +588,21 @@
     "band_0204": 0.16
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x25d8c73a5ebeb6db934d8da68592ba3d4f1ca71f",
-    "name": "none910",
-    "weight": 0.0098,
+    "wallet": "0x52e9ddafda7ae033b1dd4553c7acdb9b3effb5cd",
+    "name": "muUren",
+    "weight": 0.0111,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.21,
-    "z_oos": 2.53,
-    "n": 1495,
-    "win_rate": 47.8,
-    "avg_entry": 0.45,
-    "band_0204": 0.09
-  },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0xec1e4ae315d80985ad25b2f6fe4dfc2941310d9c",
-    "name": "samoel97",
-    "weight": 0.0097,
-    "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.18,
-    "z_oos": 3.32,
-    "n": 544,
-    "win_rate": 78.1,
-    "avg_entry": 0.75,
-    "band_0204": 0.04
+    "z": 3.2,
+    "z_oos": 2.02,
+    "n": 2274,
+    "win_rate": 52.8,
+    "avg_entry": 0.5,
+    "band_0204": 0.23
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x90347085ff4edd5d6305eea5746d239784b0f7df",
     "name": "7887",
-    "weight": 0.0097,
+    "weight": 0.0109,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 3.16,
     "z_oos": 1.99,
@@ -708,33 +612,45 @@
     "band_0204": 0.18
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x52e9ddafda7ae033b1dd4553c7acdb9b3effb5cd",
-    "name": "muUren",
-    "weight": 0.0097,
+    "wallet": "0x25d8c73a5ebeb6db934d8da68592ba3d4f1ca71f",
+    "name": "none910",
+    "weight": 0.0109,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.16,
-    "z_oos": 2.23,
-    "n": 2206,
-    "win_rate": 52.9,
-    "avg_entry": 0.5,
-    "band_0204": 0.22
+    "z": 3.15,
+    "z_oos": 2.4,
+    "n": 1502,
+    "win_rate": 47.5,
+    "avg_entry": 0.44,
+    "band_0204": 0.09
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x40cc3feb8acaab0aa7fbd5dc7e2eb5f2f8fc1be7",
-    "name": "Ariyeh",
-    "weight": 0.0093,
+    "wallet": "0xec1e4ae315d80985ad25b2f6fe4dfc2941310d9c",
+    "name": "samoel97",
+    "weight": 0.0107,
     "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 3.03,
-    "z_oos": 3.9,
-    "n": 820,
-    "win_rate": 32.4,
-    "avg_entry": 0.28,
-    "band_0204": 0.29
+    "z": 3.11,
+    "z_oos": 3.13,
+    "n": 606,
+    "win_rate": 76.1,
+    "avg_entry": 0.73,
+    "band_0204": 0.04
+  },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x97026acc2fcbfc70420f3792ba612e5abb67ca89",
+    "name": "SERINAITE",
+    "weight": 0.0103,
+    "tier": "validated",
+    "z": 2.97,
+    "z_oos": 2.77,
+    "n": 1803,
+    "win_rate": 36.6,
+    "avg_entry": 0.34,
+    "band_0204": 0.44
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x55154a54cd74db752540dcd663a30cdb5c00eb8b",
     "name": "AK47ForLIFE",
-    "weight": 0.0089,
+    "weight": 0.01,
     "tier": "validated",
     "z": 2.89,
     "z_oos": 2.74,
@@ -742,17 +658,5 @@
     "win_rate": 41.5,
     "avg_entry": 0.38,
     "band_0204": 0.35
-  },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x1d949489f736378cbde40db18c093c5cff459100",
-    "name": "BullishBarb",
-    "weight": 0.0087,
-    "tier": "validated",
-    "z": 2.83,
-    "z_oos": 1.31,
-    "n": 2107,
-    "win_rate": 53.4,
-    "avg_entry": 0.51,
-    "band_0204": 0.25
   }
 ]

recorder/sync_tape.py

@@ -132,6 +132,7 @@ def main():
         return 0
     have = {r[0] for r in con.execute("SELECT segment FROM ingested").fetchall()}
     got = 0
+    pending_acks = []
     for d in new:
         rel, seg = d["path"], d["segment"]
         dst = os.path.join(MIRROR, rel)
@@ -171,9 +172,29 @@ def main():
             con.execute("COMMIT")
         with open(LOCAL_MANIFEST, "a") as fh:
             fh.write(json.dumps(d) + "\n")
-        box(f"touch {PQ}/acks/{os.path.basename(rel)}.ok")
+        # ACK IS DEFERRED AND NON-FATAL (2026-07-27): one ssh round-trip per
+        # file rides WireGuard, which travel networks throttle to the point
+        # of timing out — and a raised TimeoutExpired used to kill the whole
+        # sync mid-backlog (52 files in, 12 to go). The invariant is
+        # one-directional: the box may delete ONLY what the Mac acked, so a
+        # MISSING ack is always safe (box keeps the file; 25GB ≈ 3+ weeks).
+        # Batch them at the end, best-effort.
+        pending_acks.append(os.path.basename(rel))
         got += 1
-        print(f"[sync] {rel}: {n} rows -> db + mirror + ack")
+        print(f"[sync] {rel}: {n} rows -> db + mirror (ack queued)")
+    # batched ack: ONE ssh round-trip for the whole run (was one per file).
+    # Never fatal — unacked files simply wait for a healthier network; the
+    # next run re-acks them (touch is idempotent, and `have` keeps the DB
+    # from re-ingesting).
+    if pending_acks:
+        try:
+            box("touch " + " ".join(f"{PQ}/acks/{a}.ok"
+                                    for a in pending_acks), timeout=180)
+            print(f"[sync] acked {len(pending_acks)} file(s) in one call")
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"[sync] ⚠ ack deferred ({type(e).__name__}) — box keeps "
+                  f"{len(pending_acks)} file(s) until a healthier run; "
+                  f"data already in db + mirror")
     n, = con.execute("SELECT count(*) FROM trades").fetchone()
     print(f"[sync] +{got}/{len(new)} files · rtds.duckdb now {n:,} trades")
     return 0

research/copy_reconcile.py

@@ -106,7 +106,20 @@ def main():
             and b.get("entry_t", 0) >= fs.get(nm2w.get(b["name"], ""), 0)]
     print(f"backtest bets in the parity era with join keys "
           f"(follow-since applied): {len(bets)}", flush=True)
-    db = tape.connect()
+    # rtds.duckdb is single-writer and the 15-min tape-sync agent holds it in
+    # bursts; the daily's reconcile step used to die outright on the
+    # collision (2026-07-27). Wait it out — the sync finishes in seconds.
+    for _try in range(20):
+        try:
+            db = tape.connect()
+            break
+        except Exception as e:
+            if "lock" not in str(e).lower() or _try == 19:
+                raise
+            if _try == 0:
+                print("[reconcile] tape locked by the sync agent — waiting…",
+                      flush=True)
+            time.sleep(30)
     tape.build_resolved(db)
     pays = fwd.payouts_for(db, [b["asset"] for b in bets])
     v = bot_views()

research/forward_ledger.jsonl

@@ -76,3 +76,15 @@
 {"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-25 20:41 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 7020, "fills": 1246, "pending": 75, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 778.29, "wins": 581, "ev_per_fill": 0.62, "hit": 0.466}, "0.07": {"events": 4411, "fills": 573, "pending": 27, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 5192.88, "wins": 274, "ev_per_fill": 9.06, "hit": 0.478}, "0.1": {"events": 3146, "fills": 340, "pending": 15, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 5558.45, "wins": 171, "ev_per_fill": 16.35, "hit": 0.503}}
 {"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-25 20:41 UTC", "triggers": 44, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 14, "misses": 30, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1442.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "worst": {"fills": 14, "misses": 30, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1442.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
 {"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-25 20:41 UTC", "screened": 1081, "leans": 7165, "follow_small": {"n": 4709, "pending": 853, "pnl": -16418.34, "ev_per_lean": -3.49, "hit": 0.575}, "mid_report": {"n": 969, "pending": 189, "pnl": 2597.06, "ev_per_lean": 2.68, "hit": 0.621}, "fade_whale": {"n": 316, "pending": 83, "pnl": -1053.18, "ev_per_lean": -3.33, "hit": 0.421}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 3567, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 937, "misses": 2626, "pending": 0, "refunds": 4, "pnl": 862.13, "wins": 535, "ev_per_fill": 0.92, "hit": 0.571}, "worst": {"fills": 937, "misses": 2626, "pending": 0, "refunds": 4, "pnl": 422.1, "wins": 535, "ev_per_fill": 0.45, "hit": 0.571}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 15, "pnl": -378.33}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 17, "pnl": 200.6}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 32, "pnl": 322.81}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 8387, "fills": 1519, "pending": 83, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 768.74, "wins": 714, "ev_per_fill": 0.51, "hit": 0.47}, "0.07": {"events": 5254, "fills": 698, "pending": 26, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 5085.34, "wins": 336, "ev_per_fill": 7.29, "hit": 0.481}, "0.1": {"events": 3753, "fills": 420, "pending": 15, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 5804.78, "wins": 210, "ev_per_fill": 13.82, "hit": 0.5}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "triggers": 57, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 16, "misses": 41, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 2352.0, "wins": 2, "ev_per_fill": 147.0, "hit": 0.125}, "worst": {"fills": 16, "misses": 41, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 2352.0, "wins": 2, "ev_per_fill": 147.0, "hit": 0.125}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-25", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "screened": 1062, "leans": 8306, "follow_small": {"n": 5958, "pending": 398, "pnl": -1957.38, "ev_per_lean": -0.33, "hit": 0.577}, "mid_report": {"n": 1326, "pending": 76, "pnl": 2165.88, "ev_per_lean": 1.63, "hit": 0.606}, "fade_whale": {"n": 462, "pending": 19, "pnl": -535.53, "ev_per_lean": -1.16, "hit": 0.433}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 3521, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 759, "misses": 2658, "pending": 97, "refunds": 7, "pnl": 4292.57, "wins": 439, "ev_per_fill": 5.66, "hit": 0.578}, "worst": {"fills": 759, "misses": 2658, "pending": 97, "refunds": 7, "pnl": 3797.88, "wins": 439, "ev_per_fill": 5.0, "hit": 0.578}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 12, "pnl": -253.11}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 12, "pnl": -355.65}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 11, "pnl": 59.58}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 8473, "fills": 938, "pending": 669, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -3779.46, "wins": 439, "ev_per_fill": -4.03, "hit": 0.468}, "0.07": {"events": 5295, "fills": 404, "pending": 295, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1964.68, "wins": 182, "ev_per_fill": -4.86, "hit": 0.45}, "0.1": {"events": 3662, "fills": 220, "pending": 152, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1185.93, "wins": 102, "ev_per_fill": -5.39, "hit": 0.464}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "triggers": 54, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 10, "misses": 44, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1030.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "worst": {"fills": 10, "misses": 44, "pending": 0, "refunds": 0, "pnl": -1030.0, "wins": 0, "ev_per_fill": -103.0, "hit": 0.0}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-26", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "screened": 1338, "leans": 10375, "follow_small": {"n": 5148, "pending": 2651, "pnl": 21905.0, "ev_per_lean": 4.26, "hit": 0.577}, "mid_report": {"n": 1385, "pending": 602, "pnl": 8224.1, "ev_per_lean": 5.94, "hit": 0.614}, "fade_whale": {"n": 392, "pending": 169, "pnl": -4101.82, "ev_per_lean": -10.46, "hit": 0.395}}
+{"study": "flow", "day": "2026-07-27", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "frozen_at": "2026-07-20 21:14 UTC", "triggers": 993, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 189, "misses": 722, "pending": 77, "refunds": 5, "pnl": 112.46, "wins": 116, "ev_per_fill": 0.6, "hit": 0.614}, "worst": {"fills": 189, "misses": 722, "pending": 77, "refunds": 5, "pnl": 74.74, "wins": 116, "ev_per_fill": 0.4, "hit": 0.614}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 1, "pnl": 10.78}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 4, "pnl": -410.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 1, "pnl": 147.0}]}
+{"study": "oracle", "day": "2026-07-27", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "0.04": {"events": 5309, "fills": 517, "pending": 495, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 2958.48, "wins": 243, "ev_per_fill": 5.72, "hit": 0.47}, "0.07": {"events": 2996, "fills": 207, "pending": 180, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 1611.25, "wins": 100, "ev_per_fill": 7.78, "hit": 0.483}, "0.1": {"events": 2002, "fills": 100, "pending": 100, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 1052.39, "wins": 52, "ev_per_fill": 10.52, "hit": 0.52}}
+{"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": "2026-07-27", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "triggers": 20, "set_size": 150, "first": {"fills": 7, "misses": 12, "pending": 1, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 1279.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 182.71, "hit": 0.143}, "worst": {"fills": 7, "misses": 12, "pending": 1, "refunds": 0, "pnl": 1279.0, "wins": 1, "ev_per_fill": 182.71, "hit": 0.143}, "controls_worst": [{"seed": 1, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 2, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}, {"seed": 3, "fills": 0, "pnl": 0.0}]}
+{"study": "lean", "day": "2026-07-27", "computed_at": "2026-07-27 15:57 UTC", "screened": 1535, "leans": 3103, "follow_small": {"n": 1522, "pending": 813, "pnl": 8007.61, "ev_per_lean": 5.26, "hit": 0.591}, "mid_report": {"n": 351, "pending": 235, "pnl": -902.06, "ev_per_lean": -2.57, "hit": 0.578}, "fade_whale": {"n": 78, "pending": 80, "pnl": 103.99, "ev_per_lean": 1.33, "hit": 0.359}}

research/grade_lag.py

@@ -20,6 +20,9 @@ STATE_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lag_state.pull.json")
 ATT_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lag_attempts.pull.jsonl")
 SET_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lag_settles.pull.jsonl")
 FLYCTL = shutil.which("flyctl") or "/opt/homebrew/bin/flyctl"
+# #27 freeze: v2 scores ONLY fills at/after this instant. v1 fills are
+# not reusable for the band verdict (the band was found by slicing them).
+V2_FREEZE_TS = 1785200000        # 2026-07-27 ~19:33Z, the commit that ships it
 
 
 def sftp(remote, local):
@@ -120,7 +123,31 @@ def main():
         print(f"[grade_lag] OBSERVATIONAL: median ask premium "
               f"{st.median(prem)*100:+.1f}c over {len(prem)} attempts "
               f"(kill-switch: >= +8c across 3 days)")
-    print("[grade_lag] verdict binds to the Study D pre-registration")
+    # ── #27 v2: the 15-40c complement band, forward fills only ───────────
+    import guards
+    led = []
+    try:
+        for ln in open(LEDGER):
+            try:
+                led.append(json.loads(ln))
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    print("[grade_lag] " + guards.line("v1 ALL-BANDS", guards.cuts(led),
+                                       pass_ev=4.0))
+    v2 = [r for r in led if r.get("ts", 0) >= V2_FREEZE_TS
+          and 0.15 <= (r.get("price") or 0) < 0.40]
+    print("[grade_lag] " + guards.line("v2 BAND 15-40c", guards.cuts(v2),
+                                       pass_ev=8.0))
+    for lo, hi, tag in ((0.0, 0.15, "<15c"), (0.40, 0.70, "40-70c"),
+                        (0.70, 1.01, ">=70c")):
+        ctl = [r for r in led if r.get("ts", 0) >= V2_FREEZE_TS
+               and lo <= (r.get("price") or 0) < hi]
+        if ctl:
+            print("[grade_lag]   control " + guards.line(tag, guards.cuts(ctl)))
+    print("[grade_lag] verdict binds to the Study D pre-registration (v1) "
+          "and #27 (v2 band; PASS needs EV>=+$8 AND all guards clear)")
     return 0
 
 

research/grade_lean.py

@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Nightly chain-truth grading of the maker-lean harness (wwf-leanbot).
+
+Pulls /data/lean_state.json + lean_attempts.jsonl + lean_settles.jsonl off
+the box (read-only), re-grades every settle with CTF payout vectors,
+appends to research/lean_paper_ledger.jsonl (keyed asset+ts, idempotent),
+and prints the pre-registered readouts for #26: paper-leg EV/fill WITH
+the shared concentration guards (guards.py — ex-best-day, ex-top5,
+top-event share; a headline PASS that fails them is CONCENTRATED and does
+not graduate), plus the OBSERVATIONAL kill-switch — the median ask
+premium over the lean-side print (>= 8c over 3 days = the tape's entry
+was a mirage, no paper sample needed)."""
+import json
+import os
+import shutil
+import statistics as st
+import subprocess
+import sys
+
+HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
+LEDGER = os.path.join(HERE, "lean_paper_ledger.jsonl")
+STATE_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_state.pull.json")
+ATT_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_attempts.pull.jsonl")
+SET_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_settles.pull.jsonl")
+FLYCTL = shutil.which("flyctl") or "/opt/homebrew/bin/flyctl"
+
+
+def sftp(remote, local):
+    subprocess.run([FLYCTL, "ssh", "sftp", "get", remote, local + ".new",
+                    "-a", "wwf-leanbot"], capture_output=True,
+                   timeout=600, stdin=subprocess.DEVNULL)
+    if os.path.exists(local + ".new") and os.path.getsize(local + ".new") > 0:
+        os.replace(local + ".new", local)
+        return True
+    try:
+        os.remove(local + ".new")
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    return False
+
+
+def main():
+    ok = sftp("/data/lean_state.json", STATE_PULL)
+    sftp("/data/lean_attempts.jsonl", ATT_PULL)
+    sftp("/data/lean_settles.jsonl", SET_PULL)
+    if not ok:
+        print("[grade_lean] box unreachable or no state yet — skip")
+        return 0
+    stt = json.load(open(STATE_PULL))
+    sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(HERE, "..", "live"))
+    import payouts
+    have = set()
+    ledger_rows = 0
+    try:
+        for ln in open(LEDGER):
+            try:
+                d = json.loads(ln)
+                have.add((d["asset"], d["ts"]))
+                ledger_rows += 1
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    settled = stt.get("settled", [])
+    if os.path.exists(SET_PULL):       # durable log beats trimmed state
+        seen = {(s["asset"], s["ts"]) for s in settled}
+        for ln in open(SET_PULL):
+            try:
+                s = json.loads(ln)
+                if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in seen:
+                    settled.append(s)
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    new = [s for s in settled if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in have]
+    if new:
+        payouts.ensure(sorted({s["cond"] for s in new if s.get("cond")}))
+    graded = flips = 0
+    with open(LEDGER, "a") as fh:
+        for s in new:
+            t = payouts.truth(s.get("cond"), s.get("asset")) \
+                if s.get("cond") else None
+            pay = s["payout"] if t is None else t
+            pnl = round(s["shares"] * pay - s["cost"] - s["fee"], 2)
+            if t is not None and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9:
+                flips += 1
+            fh.write(json.dumps({**s, "chain_payout": pay, "chain_pnl": pnl,
+                                 "flip": t is not None
+                                 and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9}) + "\n")
+            graded += 1
+    import guards
+    led = []
+    try:
+        for ln in open(LEDGER):
+            try:
+                led.append(json.loads(ln))
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    # observational kill-switch: median premium across ALL attempts with a
+    # visible ask (fills, premium-skips, craters alike)
+    prem = []
+    try:
+        for ln in open(ATT_PULL):
+            try:
+                a = json.loads(ln)
+                if a.get("premium") is not None:
+                    prem.append(a["premium"])
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    c = stt.get("counters", {})
+    cuts = guards.cuts(led)
+    print(f"[grade_lean] +{graded} settles ({flips} flips) · "
+          f"lifetime cross {c.get('crossings')} att {c.get('attempts')} "
+          f"fill {c.get('fills')} prem-skip {c.get('premium_skips')}")
+    print("[grade_lean] " + guards.line("PAPER LEG", cuts, pass_ev=2.0))
+    if prem:
+        prem.sort()
+        print(f"[grade_lean] OBSERVATIONAL: median ask premium "
+              f"{st.median(prem)*100:+.1f}c over {len(prem)} attempts "
+              f"(kill-switch: >= +8c across 3 days)")
+    print("[grade_lean] verdict binds to the Study C Stage-2 (#26) pre-registration")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())

research/guards.py

@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Concentration guards, shared by every harness grader (#26/#27).
+
+Two studies passed their headline bars this week on results that one
+session or five episodes were carrying (Study C ex-best-day +$1.47 vs a
++$2 bar; Study D ex-best-day −$5.86 on a +$4.49 headline). These cuts
+turn that lesson into machinery: every grader reports them nightly, and
+a PASS whose ex-best-day EV is <= 0 is recorded CONCENTRATED and does
+not graduate.
+
+rows: dicts with chain_pnl, cost, ts, and (optionally) event.
+"""
+import collections
+import datetime as dt
+
+
+def cuts(rows, pnl_key="chain_pnl"):
+    """-> dict of the guard readings (empty dict when there is nothing)."""
+    rows = [r for r in rows if r.get(pnl_key) is not None]
+    n = len(rows)
+    if not n:
+        return {}
+    tot = sum(r[pnl_key] for r in rows)
+    staked = sum(r.get("cost") or 0 for r in rows)
+    out = {"n": n, "pnl": round(tot, 2), "ev": round(tot / n, 2),
+           "pct_staked": round(100 * tot / staked, 1) if staked else None,
+           "wins": sum(1 for r in rows if r.get("chain_payout") == 1.0)}
+    out["hit"] = round(out["wins"] / n, 3)
+    # episode concentration
+    srt = sorted(rows, key=lambda r: -abs(r[pnl_key]))
+    for k in (1, 5):
+        if n > k:
+            ex = sum(r[pnl_key] for r in srt[k:])
+            out[f"ex_top{k}_ev"] = round(ex / (n - k), 2)
+    out["top5_share"] = (round(100 * sum(r[pnl_key] for r in srt[:5]) / tot, 0)
+                         if tot else None)
+    # TIME concentration — the guard both studies needed
+    byday = collections.defaultdict(lambda: [0, 0.0])
+    for r in rows:
+        d = dt.datetime.utcfromtimestamp(r["ts"]).strftime("%m-%d")
+        byday[d][0] += 1
+        byday[d][1] += r[pnl_key]
+    out["days"] = len(byday)
+    out["by_day"] = {d: [v[0], round(v[1], 0)] for d, v in sorted(byday.items())}
+    if len(byday) > 1:
+        best = max(byday.values(), key=lambda v: v[1])
+        exn = n - best[0]
+        if exn > 0:
+            out["ex_best_day_ev"] = round((tot - best[1]) / exn, 2)
+            out["ex_best_day_n"] = exn
+    # EVENT concentration (the gate Study C's fade arm failed at 32%)
+    ev = collections.defaultdict(float)
+    for r in rows:
+        if r.get("event"):
+            ev[r["event"]] += r[pnl_key]
+    if ev and tot:
+        out["events"] = len(ev)
+        out["top_event_share"] = round(
+            100 * max(ev.values(), key=abs) / tot, 0)
+    return out
+
+
+def line(tag, c, pass_ev=None):
+    """One printable verdict line + the guard verdict."""
+    if not c:
+        return f"{tag}: no graded rows"
+    s = (f"{tag}: n={c['n']} {c['wins']}W · EV/fill {c['ev']:+.2f} · "
+         f"hit {c['hit']:.3f} · {c['pct_staked']:+.0f}% staked · "
+         f"{c['days']}d")
+    if "ex_best_day_ev" in c:
+        s += f" · EX-BEST-DAY {c['ex_best_day_ev']:+.2f}"
+    if "ex_top5_ev" in c:
+        s += f" · ex-top5 {c['ex_top5_ev']:+.2f}"
+    if "top_event_share" in c:
+        s += f" · top-event {c['top_event_share']:+.0f}%"
+    if pass_ev is not None:
+        bars = [c["ev"] >= pass_ev,
+                c.get("ex_best_day_ev", -1) > 0,
+                c.get("ex_top5_ev", -1) > 0,
+                abs(c.get("top_event_share") or 0) < 30]
+        s += ("  -> " + ("ALL GUARDS CLEAR" if all(bars) else
+                         "CONCENTRATED (headline only)" if bars[0] else
+                         "below bar"))
+    return s

research/lag_paper_ledger.jsonl

@@ -138,3 +138,240 @@
 {"event": "atp-blockx-darderi-2026-07-25", "outc": "blockx", "leader": "79246784580924884403465528067980646957296862224939851683960772930000133340539", "lead_mv": 0.129, "lead_px": 0.369, "sgn": 1, "asset": "17435877608370274451894590057812006880344649715167517014597701022781438064260", "cond": "0x4ec128695160975727e9b9a5b3ea054123dd5d8ff1ae5fe063017722cc1be204", "title": "Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Blockx (+1.5)", "stale": 0.6, "ts": 1785008784.029, "price": 0.62, "best_ask": 0.62, "premium": 0.02, "shares": 161.2903, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.8387, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 56, "clob_ck": 1785018051.5047328, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785018052, "pnl": 59.45, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 59.45, "flip": false}
 {"event": "mlb-ari-wsh-2026-07-25", "outc": "washington nationals", "leader": "22618165637050340174391035562344142278262355057265147531884848041142638647486", "lead_mv": 0.11, "lead_px": 0.43, "sgn": 1, "asset": "41329537871143772624461001265894725007120651738537730295383113119590033896721", "cond": "0xc0e0625a069eef3c3c264f19225a5da26fba6aabf0da2b9469f7812a477a2512", "title": "Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)", "stale": 0.33, "ts": 1785013173.17, "price": 0.2653, "best_ask": 0.26, "premium": -0.07, "shares": 66.0, "cost": 17.51, "fee": 0.5253, "levels": 3, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 42, "clob_ck": 1785020840.5985923, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785020841, "pnl": -18.04, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -18.04, "flip": false}
 {"event": "mlb-laa-sf-2026-07-25", "outc": "los angeles angels", "leader": "41342575864190103587935971034641658136363570709563808611546824127621471410812", "lead_mv": -0.11, "lead_px": 0.28, "sgn": -1, "asset": "3878703055285638200961370222438115260028650871714969773325041277433450345977", "cond": "0x32e0803051ac7b230d59e5e420119caae8f9c4a3c59cfb84a42ea1c05bcbcf77", "title": "Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)", "stale": 0.8655, "ts": 1785012576.037, "price": 0.9, "best_ask": 0.9, "premium": 0.0345, "shares": 50.0, "cost": 45.0, "fee": 0.15, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 44, "clob_ck": 1785020961.996393, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785020963, "pnl": 4.85, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 4.85, "flip": false}
+{"event": "mlb-sd-mia-2026-07-25", "outc": "miami marlins", "leader": "31267192517123317451915465086851148383116533375943859131743363465378842708952", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.18, "sgn": -1, "asset": "80475949545119932092353982279412521656628689587653717652914855258561428887944", "cond": "0x2cd54414ff4d5285d019b45604d72b92fac1aeb68e71a3a09d859866dc129d58", "title": "Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)", "stale": 0.29, "ts": 1785018155.211, "price": 0.32, "best_ask": 0.32, "premium": 0.03, "shares": 20.0, "cost": 6.4, "fee": 0.192, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 45, "clob_ck": 1785023386.6400144, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785023387, "pnl": 13.41, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 13.41, "flip": false}
+{"event": "dota2-lynx-kw1-2026-07-25", "outc": "team lynx", "leader": "17846119866843624311176071326442489651966273852529513001314507531133316614379", "lead_mv": 0.13, "lead_px": 0.33, "sgn": 1, "asset": "113503394170371591407434528794274070758601398923718836633227115280742152205354", "cond": "0x4cd28d3de905a18ce488567974999d5d1a8f6ccefd33d1c3cd2e8ba51761ba0c", "title": "Dota 2: Team Lynx vs KW - Game 2 Winner", "stale": 0.46, "ts": 1785010947.995, "price": 0.5, "best_ask": 0.5, "premium": 0.04, "shares": 10.0, "cost": 5.0, "fee": 0.15, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 49, "clob_ck": 1785023992.8755088, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785023994, "pnl": 4.85, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 4.85, "flip": false}
+{"event": "lol-fly-ly-2026-07-25", "outc": "lyon", "leader": "58111121880102241404792455898403784251506811481420173609500779091715908489290", "lead_mv": 0.11, "lead_px": 0.54, "sgn": 1, "asset": "103550971460013348407143263875377501487305323660066711059669248992141604439632", "cond": "0x73be0c156b8b2ee5611973a3d17346f6982b1f68d773519e602bafd16b4a52dd", "title": "LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season", "stale": 0.46, "ts": 1785010591.402, "price": 0.46977, "best_ask": 0.46, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 212.8723, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 64, "clob_ck": 1785024720.280594, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785024721, "pnl": 109.87, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 109.87, "flip": false}
+{"event": "lol-fly-ly-2026-07-25", "outc": "lyon", "leader": "77644482131340851136741825060999488305678158387088125583096175106512985059595", "lead_mv": 0.16, "lead_px": 0.95, "sgn": 1, "asset": "103550971460013348407143263875377501487305323660066711059669248992141604439632", "cond": "0x73be0c156b8b2ee5611973a3d17346f6982b1f68d773519e602bafd16b4a52dd", "title": "LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season", "stale": 0.94, "ts": 1785015195.795, "price": 0.94858, "best_ask": 0.94, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 105.4211, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 0.1626, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 45, "clob_ck": 1785024720.280594, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785024721, "pnl": 5.26, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 5.26, "flip": false}
+{"event": "lol-lll-png1-2026-07-25", "outc": "pain gaming", "leader": "86202659826631685339792133714224487516877181325043252200481501201039225024964", "lead_mv": -0.11, "lead_px": 0.15, "sgn": -1, "asset": "88554976205890979866384422157857490380672259193117783628695776581747623829966", "cond": "0xf9b7610b664b638ef83f68665978d9afc66682f683eb632413450472084cb0d6", "title": "LoL: LOUD vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season", "stale": 0.45, "ts": 1785011459.455, "price": 0.47744, "best_ask": 0.46, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 209.449, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 4, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 49, "clob_ck": 1785027145.0567997, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785027146, "pnl": 106.45, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 106.45, "flip": false}
+{"event": "lol-lll-png1-2026-07-25", "outc": "loud", "leader": "89423501106794542077068637147294833096565589201594450288348072994159472796486", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.46, "sgn": -1, "asset": "80034568939583099184914682601898700829365622348287715220556998280176009787403", "cond": "0xf9b7610b664b638ef83f68665978d9afc66682f683eb632413450472084cb0d6", "title": "LoL: LOUD vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season", "stale": 0.47, "ts": 1785008215.693, "price": 0.48, "best_ask": 0.48, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 208.3333, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1785027627.1134558, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785027628, "pnl": -103.0, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -103.0, "flip": false}
+{"event": "mls-nyr-clt-2026-07-25-more-markets", "outc": "charlotte fc", "leader": "114072817486953167665368337314827749811835827337980014868734196815891319976859", "lead_mv": 0.11, "lead_px": 0.13, "sgn": 1, "asset": "30418839748991209390537601116115901359213183015768827632765892274150952869844", "cond": "0xfdaca71292930f501fcf2cfc6d87a7e5655e9968c34415054f45b32c874317ad", "title": "Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)", "stale": 0.43, "ts": 1785019789.874, "price": 0.31, "best_ask": 0.31, "premium": -0.12, "shares": 322.5806, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 46, "clob_ck": 1785027990.9211612, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785027992, "pnl": 219.58, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 219.58, "flip": false}
+{"event": "dota2-lynx-kw1-2026-07-25", "outc": "team lynx", "leader": "17846119866843624311176071326442489651966273852529513001314507531133316614379", "lead_mv": -0.114, "lead_px": 0.42, "sgn": -1, "asset": "106416335045858417485794679380630521816784116929902857244137917060878836402970", "cond": "0xfa32e4873b6663e0da3b943bb82942fff610bb00a3c0b6dfb61dc13352af17e7", "title": "Dota 2: Team Lynx vs KW (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A", "stale": 0.56, "ts": 1785008385.882, "price": 0.56943, "best_ask": 0.56, "premium": 0.0, "shares": 175.614, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 2.2684, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 51, "clob_ck": 1785028595.0315459, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785028596, "pnl": -102.27, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -102.27, "flip": false}
+{"event": "dota2-lynx-kw1-2026-07-25", "outc": "team lynx", "leader": "17846119866843624311176071326442489651966273852529513001314507531133316614379", "lead_mv": -0.11, "lead_px": 0.42, "sgn": -1, "asset": "106416335045858417485794679380630521816784116929902857244137917060878836402970", "cond": "0xfa32e4873b6663e0da3b943bb82942fff610bb00a3c0b6dfb61dc13352af17e7", "title": "Dota 2: Team Lynx vs KW (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A", "stale": 0.49, "ts": 1785010248.437, "price": 0.53, "best_ask": 0.53, "premium": 0.04, "shares": 15.0, "cost": 7.95, "fee": 0.2115, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 48, "clob_ck": 1785028595.0315459, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785028596, "pnl": -8.16, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -8.16, "flip": false}
+{"event": "dota2-lynx-kw1-2026-07-25", "outc": "team lynx", "leader": "17846119866843624311176071326442489651966273852529513001314507531133316614379", "lead_mv": 0.13, "lead_px": 0.33, "sgn": 1, "asset": "109834114700126523978751303630270508047158323116407282116186116750627846699122", "cond": "0xfa32e4873b6663e0da3b943bb82942fff610bb00a3c0b6dfb61dc13352af17e7", "title": "Dota 2: Team Lynx vs KW (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A", "stale": 0.4432, "ts": 1785010947.995, "price": 0.4585, "best_ask": 0.44, "premium": -0.0032, "shares": 218.1038, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 4, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 54, "clob_ck": 1785028595.0315459, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785028596, "pnl": 115.1, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 115.1, "flip": false}
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+{"event": "cs2-rustec-innerc-2026-07-27", "outc": "ex-rustec", "leader": "96191580196847786574827331622677881330188344440606622073190882187066106626639", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.69, "sgn": -1, "asset": "68018102572067891074601454184482549900932828934031649035883338344468468905715", "cond": "0xb80fc620974e7d966b0dcc314bd507980c7bd01b466af11b11e4089a6ff56288", "title": "Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Inner Circle Academy (BO3) - CC", "stale": 0.36, "ts": 1785163223.591, "price": 0.3769, "best_ask": 0.37, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 265.3255, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 69, "clob_ck": 1785178131.2192416, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785178132, "pnl": 162.33, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 162.33, "flip": false}
+{"event": "cs2-rustec-innerc-2026-07-27", "outc": "ex-rustec", "leader": "78307420466529914729684836051326243711601938811748465025748059469446693035876", "lead_mv": 0.18, "lead_px": 0.37, "sgn": 1, "asset": "75269431000847093469785430089457876372935737097119709932240485170719688617073", "cond": "0x10754138b854d5d389918e7d8d37de9a10f637196d5446ff996d12c1be815a2d", "title": "Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Inner Circle Academy - Map 2 Wi", "stale": 0.64, "ts": 1785167090.933, "price": 0.65, "best_ask": 0.65, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 153.8462, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.6154, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 50, "clob_ck": 1785178131.2192416, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785178132, "pnl": -101.62, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -101.62, "flip": false}
+{"event": "cs2-rustec-innerc-2026-07-27", "outc": "ex-rustec", "leader": "75269431000847093469785430089457876372935737097119709932240485170719688617073", "lead_mv": -0.12, "lead_px": 0.46, "sgn": -1, "asset": "68018102572067891074601454184482549900932828934031649035883338344468468905715", "cond": "0xb80fc620974e7d966b0dcc314bd507980c7bd01b466af11b11e4089a6ff56288", "title": "Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Inner Circle Academy (BO3) - CC", "stale": 0.7, "ts": 1785169079.313, "price": 0.74, "best_ask": 0.74, "premium": 0.04, "shares": 135.1351, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 1.0541, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 58, "clob_ck": 1785178131.2192416, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785178132, "pnl": 34.08, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 34.08, "flip": false}
+{"event": "cs2-rustec-innerc-2026-07-27", "outc": "ex-rustec", "leader": "96191580196847786574827331622677881330188344440606622073190882187066106626639", "lead_mv": -0.29, "lead_px": 0.37, "sgn": -1, "asset": "68018102572067891074601454184482549900932828934031649035883338344468468905715", "cond": "0xb80fc620974e7d966b0dcc314bd507980c7bd01b466af11b11e4089a6ff56288", "title": "Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Inner Circle Academy (BO3) - CC", "stale": 0.5, "ts": 1785163836.153, "price": 0.51948, "best_ask": 0.51, "premium": 0.01, "shares": 192.5, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 2.775, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 43, "clob_ck": 1785178252.7232025, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785178254, "pnl": 89.72, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 89.72, "flip": false}
+{"event": "cs2-rustec-innerc-2026-07-27", "outc": "ex-rustec", "leader": "96191580196847786574827331622677881330188344440606622073190882187066106626639", "lead_mv": -0.29, "lead_px": 0.37, "sgn": -1, "asset": "92267746472924415279188001683743495130554122625841340180467573520877926627034", "cond": "0x10754138b854d5d389918e7d8d37de9a10f637196d5446ff996d12c1be815a2d", "title": "Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Inner Circle Academy - Map 2 Wi", "stale": 0.479, "ts": 1785163836.153, "price": 0.48, "best_ask": 0.48, "premium": 0.001, "shares": 208.3333, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 3.0, "levels": 1, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 52, "clob_ck": 1785178252.7232025, "payout": 1.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785178254, "pnl": 105.33, "chain_payout": 1.0, "chain_pnl": 105.33, "flip": false}
+{"event": "cs2-rustec-innerc-2026-07-27", "outc": "inner circle academy", "leader": "68018102572067891074601454184482549900932828934031649035883338344468468905715", "lead_mv": -0.1, "lead_px": 0.7, "sgn": -1, "asset": "75269431000847093469785430089457876372935737097119709932240485170719688617073", "cond": "0x10754138b854d5d389918e7d8d37de9a10f637196d5446ff996d12c1be815a2d", "title": "Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Inner Circle Academy - Map 2 Wi", "stale": 0.5136, "ts": 1785166490.652, "price": 0.53785, "best_ask": 0.53, "premium": 0.0164, "shares": 185.9259, "cost": 100.0, "fee": 2.5778, "levels": 2, "partial": false, "latency_ms": 48, "clob_ck": 1785178252.7232025, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785178254, "pnl": -102.58, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -102.58, "flip": false}
+{"event": "wta-cocciar-tauson-2026-07-27", "outc": "tauson", "leader": "95789830895604369244754344647004428159571623640402383415410714701638099337128", "lead_mv": -0.28, "lead_px": 0.45, "sgn": -1, "asset": "253088177525669873062765336742935897769214283186786967538925827564678123320", "cond": "0xf77a31a66803129f8f285b267f7cd67682f1920bef928a9056dff51a9fb09258", "title": "Set Handicap: Cocciaretto (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5)", "stale": 0.13, "ts": 1785170411.26, "price": 0.08, "best_ask": 0.08, "premium": -0.05, "shares": 500.0, "cost": 40.0, "fee": 1.2, "levels": 1, "partial": true, "latency_ms": 54, "clob_ck": 1785179224.405144, "payout": 0.0, "provisional": true, "settled_ts": 1785179225, "pnl": -41.2, "chain_payout": 0.0, "chain_pnl": -41.2, "flip": false}

research/leanbot.Dockerfile

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+# wwf-leanbot — one dep, no git, no clone (same discipline as the others).
+FROM python:3.12-slim
+RUN pip install --no-cache-dir websocket-client
+COPY research/leanbot.py /leanbot.py
+CMD ["python3", "-u", "/leanbot.py"]

research/leanbot.py

@@ -0,0 +1,631 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""leanbot — Study C Stage-2 (#26): maker inventory-leans at REAL execution.
+
+PAPER ONLY. No keys, no orders, no bot imports — self-contained (baked
+into the wwf-leanbot image). Study C (#22) PASSED its tape-scored window
+(+$2.17/lean, hit .576, n=20,461, 6 days) but every entry was booked at
+the lean-side LAST PRINT — an entry no real order can have. Study B died
+of exactly that assumption (tape-positive, −$8.51/fill at a real book).
+This box answers the only question that matters: when a screened
+maker-sharp's inventory crosses the conviction line, is the lean side
+still buyable near that print?
+
+Two legs per lean, both recorded:
+  observational  ask premium over the lean-side last print at trigger time
+                 (median premium >= 8c over 3 days = the tape's entry was a
+                 mirage — pre-registered kill-switch, no paper sample needed)
+  paper          $100 FAK walk at the real ask, gated by the pre-declared
+                 premium cap (+3c over the print; tighter than lagbot's 4c
+                 because a lean carries no urgency — nothing is crashing)
+
+THE VERDICT BINDS TO #26. Entries graded nightly against chain truth
+(grade_lean.py). Any semantics-altering fix bumps SEM_VER and restarts
+the shakedown clock.
+
+FROZEN spec (from #22 + pre-declared; do not tune here):
+  set        maker-sharps screened on strictly-prior tape, published
+             nightly by maker_set.py (the box never screens itself)
+  inventory  rolling net/gross USD per (wallet, token) from the
+             orders_matched stream — inventory absorbed while quoting
+  trigger    first crossing per (wallet, token, day) of
+             |net|*px >= $150 AND |net|/gross >= 0.6, lean px in [0.05,0.95]
+  band       follow arm only: lean size $150-500 (the #22 verdict arm)
+  entry      $100 FAK walk at asks <= min(print + 0.03, 0.95)
+             fee 3%*sh*min(p,1-p); MAX_PER_EVENT=2 concurrent
+Live-only plumbing (never signal): 30-min warmup, worker pool + bounded
+queue (throttle counted), map trims, registry-style settle passes.
+"""
+import json
+import os
+import queue
+import ssl
+import threading
+import time
+import urllib.request
+
+import websocket
+
+WS_URL = "wss://ws-live-data.polymarket.com"
+CLOB = "https://clob.polymarket.com"
+SET_URL = ("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder/"
+           "main/research/params/maker_set.json")
+STATE = os.environ.get("LEAN_STATE", "/data/lean_state.json")
+ATTEMPTS = os.environ.get("LEAN_ATTEMPTS", "/data/lean_attempts.jsonl")
+SETTLES = os.environ.get("LEAN_SETTLES", "/data/lean_settles.jsonl")
+SEM_VER = "n1"                    # bump on ANY semantics-altering change
+
+# ── FROZEN — #22 params + pre-declared execution rule ──────────────────────
+LEAN_USD_MIN = 150.0              # == maker_lean.LEAN_USD
+LEAN_USD_MAX = 500.0              # the #22 follow arm's upper edge
+NET_GROSS = 0.6
+BAND = (0.05, 0.95)
+PREMIUM_CAP = 0.03
+STAKE = 100.0
+FEE_RATE = 0.03
+MAX_PER_EVENT = 2
+# ── LIVE-ONLY plumbing ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+WARMUP_S = 1800
+SET_REFRESH_S = 3600
+BOOK_WORKERS = 4
+BOOK_QUEUE = 16
+CLOB_PASS_CAP = 25
+SETTLED_TRIM = 10000
+SKIPS_TRIM = 500
+INV_TRIM = 20000                  # bounded inventory map
+MAP_IDLE_TRIM_S = 86400
+TOP_LEVELS = 5
+SSL_CTX = ssl._create_unverified_context()
+
+
+def log(m):
+    print(f"{time.strftime('%H:%M:%S')}  {m}", flush=True)
+
+
+def get_json(url, timeout=8):
+    req = urllib.request.Request(url, headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"})
+    with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=timeout, context=SSL_CTX) as r:
+        return json.loads(r.read().decode())
+
+
+def walk_asks(asks, cap, stake_usd=STAKE):
+    """FAK against a CLOB ask list within cap; partial fills kept; top raw
+    levels recorded for offline replays. asks arrive UNSORTED."""
+    lv = sorted(((float(a["price"]), float(a["size"])) for a in asks or []))
+    top = [[p, s] for p, s in lv[:TOP_LEVELS]]
+    if not lv:
+        return {"filled": False, "best_ask": None, "top": top}
+    best = lv[0][0]
+    spent = shares = 0.0
+    levels = 0
+    for pxx, sz in lv:
+        if pxx > cap or spent >= stake_usd - 1e-9:
+            break
+        take = min(sz, (stake_usd - spent) / pxx)
+        if take <= 0:
+            break
+        shares += take
+        spent += take * pxx
+        levels += 1
+    if not shares:
+        return {"filled": False, "best_ask": best, "top": top}
+    return {"filled": True, "vwap": spent / shares, "shares": shares,
+            "usd": spent, "levels": levels, "best_ask": best, "top": top,
+            "partial": spent < stake_usd - 1e-9}
+
+
+def fresh_state():
+    return {
+        "sem_ver": SEM_VER, "boot_ts": int(time.time()),
+        "open": {}, "settled": [], "skips": [],
+        "pnl_realized": 0.0,
+        "counters": {"crossings": 0, "attempts": 0, "fills": 0,
+                     "craters": 0, "premium_skips": 0, "throttle_skip": 0,
+                     "book_fail": 0, "settled_total": 0, "settle_clob": 0,
+                     "skip": {"warmup": 0, "not_in_set": 0, "band_usd": 0,
+                              "band_px": 0, "no_print": 0, "event_cap": 0,
+                              "no_complement": 0, "already_fired": 0}}}
+
+
+class LeanBot:
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.lock = threading.Lock()
+        self.boot = time.time()
+        self.state = fresh_state()
+        if os.path.exists(STATE):
+            try:
+                old = json.load(open(STATE))
+                if old.get("sem_ver") == SEM_VER:
+                    self.state = old
+                    self.state["boot_ts"] = int(time.time())
+                    log(f"state resumed: {len(old.get('open', {}))} open · "
+                        f"{old['counters']['settled_total']} settled")
+                else:
+                    log(f"SEM_VER changed {old.get('sem_ver')}->{SEM_VER} — "
+                        f"fresh state (shakedown clock restarts)")
+            except Exception as e:
+                log(f"state load failed ({e}) — fresh")
+        self.sharps = set()
+        self.set_meta = {}
+        self.set_ts = 0
+        self.inv = {}          # (wallet, asset) -> [net_usd, gross_usd, ts]
+        self.fired = set()     # (wallet, asset, day) already triggered
+        self.last_px = {}      # asset -> (ts, price)
+        self.cond_assets = {}  # cond -> {asset, ...}
+        self.tok_meta = {}     # asset -> (cond, event, title, outcome)
+        self.book_q = queue.Queue(BOOK_QUEUE)
+
+    # ── the screened set (never computed here — published by maker_set.py) ──
+    def refresh_set(self):
+        try:
+            d = get_json(SET_URL, timeout=15)
+            ws = {w.lower() for w in d.get("wallets") or []}
+            if ws:
+                with self.lock:
+                    self.sharps = ws
+                    self.set_meta = {"n": len(ws), "as_of": d.get("as_of"),
+                                     "computed_at": d.get("computed_at")}
+                    self.set_ts = time.time()
+                log(f"maker set: {len(ws)} wallets (as-of "
+                    f"{time.strftime('%F', time.gmtime(d.get('as_of') or 0))})")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ maker set fetch failed: {e}")
+
+    # ── stream ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    def on_trade(self, p):
+        """activity/trades — price marks + token metadata (the orders_matched
+        payload often carries empty conditionId/eventSlug; trades do not)."""
+        a = p.get("asset")
+        if not a:
+            return
+        try:
+            px = float(p.get("price") or 0)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return
+        now = time.time()
+        with self.lock:
+            if 0 < px < 1:
+                self.last_px[a] = (now, px)
+            cond = p.get("conditionId") or ""
+            if cond:
+                self.cond_assets.setdefault(cond, set()).add(a)
+                self.tok_meta[a] = (cond, p.get("eventSlug") or "",
+                                    (p.get("title") or "")[:80],
+                                    p.get("outcome") or "")
+
+    def on_match(self, p):
+        """activity/orders_matched — the MAKER side of every match. Inventory
+        absorbed while quoting, which is the #22 signal substrate."""
+        w = (p.get("proxyWallet") or "").lower()
+        a = p.get("asset")
+        if not w or not a:
+            return
+        try:
+            px = float(p.get("price") or 0)
+            sz = float(p.get("size") or 0)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return
+        if px <= 0 or sz <= 0:
+            return
+        now = time.time()
+        usd = px * sz
+        with self.lock:
+            cond = p.get("conditionId") or ""
+            if cond:
+                self.cond_assets.setdefault(cond, set()).add(a)
+                self.tok_meta.setdefault(a, (cond, p.get("eventSlug") or "",
+                                             (p.get("title") or "")[:80],
+                                             p.get("outcome") or ""))
+            if w not in self.sharps:
+                self.state["counters"]["skip"]["not_in_set"] += 1
+                return
+            key = (w, a)
+            st = self.inv.get(key) or [0.0, 0.0, now]
+            st[0] += usd if p.get("side") == "BUY" else -usd
+            st[1] += usd
+            st[2] = now
+            self.inv[key] = st
+            if len(self.inv) > INV_TRIM:
+                for k in sorted(self.inv, key=lambda k: self.inv[k][2])[:2000]:
+                    del self.inv[k]
+            if time.time() - self.boot < WARMUP_S:
+                self.state["counters"]["skip"]["warmup"] += 1
+                return
+            self._maybe_fire(w, a, st, px, now)
+
+    def _maybe_fire(self, w, a, st, px, now):   # under lock
+        net, gross = st[0], st[1]
+        if gross < 1e-9:
+            return
+        lean_usd = abs(net)
+        if lean_usd < LEAN_USD_MIN or abs(net) / gross < NET_GROSS:
+            return
+        day = int(now // 86400)
+        if (w, a, day) in self.fired:
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["already_fired"] += 1
+            return
+        self.state["counters"]["crossings"] += 1
+        self.fired.add((w, a, day))
+        if lean_usd >= LEAN_USD_MAX:            # follow arm is $150-500
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["band_usd"] += 1
+            return
+        # lean side: net>0 = they are accumulating THIS token; net<0 = they
+        # are net short it, so the lean is the complement token
+        if net > 0:
+            target, lean_px = a, px
+        else:
+            cond = (self.tok_meta.get(a) or ("",))[0]
+            sibs = [x for x in self.cond_assets.get(cond, set()) if x != a]
+            if len(sibs) != 1:
+                self.state["counters"]["skip"]["no_complement"] += 1
+                return
+            target = sibs[0]
+            lean_px = 1 - px
+        lp = self.last_px.get(target)
+        if not lp or now - lp[0] > 3600:
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["no_print"] += 1
+            return
+        print_px = lp[1]
+        if not (BAND[0] <= print_px <= BAND[1]):
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["band_px"] += 1
+            return
+        cond, event, title, outcome = self.tok_meta.get(
+            target, ("", "", "", ""))
+        if event and sum(1 for l in self.state["open"].values()
+                         if l.get("event") == event) >= MAX_PER_EVENT:
+            self.state["counters"]["skip"]["event_cap"] += 1
+            return
+        job = {"wallet": w, "src_asset": a, "asset": target, "cond": cond,
+               "event": event, "title": title, "outcome": outcome,
+               "lean_usd": round(lean_usd, 2), "net": round(net, 2),
+               "gross": round(gross, 2), "side": 1 if net > 0 else -1,
+               "print": round(print_px, 4), "lean_px": round(lean_px, 4),
+               "ts": round(now, 3)}
+        try:
+            self.book_q.put_nowait(job)
+            self.state["counters"]["attempts"] += 1
+        except queue.Full:
+            self.state["counters"]["throttle_skip"] += 1
+            self._skip(job, "throttle", None)
+            self.log_attempt({**job, "filled": False, "why": "throttle"})
+
+    # ── execution (workers; network OUT of the lock) ───────────────────────
+    def book_worker(self):
+        while True:
+            job = self.book_q.get()
+            try:
+                self.attempt(job)
+            except Exception as e:
+                log(f"⚠ attempt error: {e}")
+                with self.lock:
+                    self.state["counters"]["book_fail"] += 1
+
+    def attempt(self, job):
+        t0 = time.time()
+        try:
+            bk = get_json(f"{CLOB}/book?token_id={job['asset']}")
+        except Exception:
+            with self.lock:
+                self.state["counters"]["book_fail"] += 1
+            return
+        lat_ms = int((time.time() - t0) * 1000)
+        cap = min(job["print"] + PREMIUM_CAP, BAND[1])
+        r = walk_asks(bk.get("asks"), cap)
+        premium = (r["best_ask"] - job["print"]) if r["best_ask"] else None
+        rec = {**job, "latency_ms": lat_ms, "best_ask": r["best_ask"],
+               "premium": round(premium, 4) if premium is not None else None,
+               "top": r["top"], "cap": round(cap, 4), "filled": r["filled"]}
+        with self.lock:
+            c = self.state["counters"]
+            if not r["filled"]:
+                why = "crater" if r["best_ask"] is None else "premium"
+                c["craters" if why == "crater" else "premium_skips"] += 1
+                rec["why"] = why
+                self._skip(job, why, r["best_ask"])
+                log(f"{why.upper()} {job['title'][:34]} print "
+                    f"{job['print']:.2f} ask "
+                    f"{r['best_ask'] if r['best_ask'] is not None else '—'} "
+                    f"(lean ${job['lean_usd']:.0f}, {lat_ms}ms)")
+                self.persist()
+            else:
+                fee = FEE_RATE * r["shares"] * min(r["vwap"], 1 - r["vwap"])
+                lot = {**job, "price": round(r["vwap"], 5),
+                       "best_ask": r["best_ask"], "premium": rec["premium"],
+                       "shares": round(r["shares"], 4),
+                       "cost": round(r["usd"], 2), "fee": round(fee, 4),
+                       "levels": r["levels"], "partial": r["partial"],
+                       "latency_ms": lat_ms}
+                self.state["open"][f"{job['asset']}:{job['ts']}"] = lot
+                c["fills"] += 1
+                rec.update({"price": lot["price"], "shares": lot["shares"],
+                            "usd": lot["cost"], "fee": lot["fee"],
+                            "partial": lot["partial"]})
+                log(f"FILL {job['title'][:34]} @ {lot['price']:.3f} "
+                    f"(print {job['print']:.2f} prem "
+                    f"{rec['premium'] if rec['premium'] is not None else 0:+.3f}"
+                    f", lean ${job['lean_usd']:.0f}, ${lot['cost']:.2f}, "
+                    f"{lat_ms}ms)")
+                self.persist()
+        self.log_attempt(rec)
+
+    def log_attempt(self, rec):
+        try:
+            with open(ATTEMPTS, "a") as fh:
+                fh.write(json.dumps(rec) + "\n")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ attempts log write failed: {e}")
+
+    def _skip(self, job, why, ba):     # under lock
+        self.state["skips"].append(
+            {"ts": int(job["ts"]), "asset": job["asset"], "why": why,
+             "print": job["print"], "ba": ba, "title": job["title"],
+             "lean_usd": job["lean_usd"]})
+        del self.state["skips"][:-SKIPS_TRIM]
+
+    # ── settles: CLOB backstop -> nightly chain truth ──────────────────────
+    def settle_clob_pass(self):
+        with self.lock:
+            now = time.time()
+            due = list(self.state["open"].keys())
+            due.sort(key=lambda lid: self.state["open"][lid].get("clob_ck", 0))
+            due = due[:CLOB_PASS_CAP]
+            snap = {}
+            for lid in due:
+                lot = self.state["open"][lid]
+                lot["clob_ck"] = now
+                snap[lid] = (lot.get("cond"), lot["asset"])
+        verdicts = {}
+        for lid, (cond, asset) in snap.items():
+            if not cond:
+                continue
+            try:
+                m = get_json(f"{CLOB}/markets/{cond}")
+            except Exception:
+                continue
+            if not m.get("closed"):
+                continue
+            for t in m.get("tokens") or []:
+                if str(t.get("token_id")) == str(asset):
+                    verdicts[lid] = 1.0 if t.get("winner") else 0.0
+        if not verdicts:
+            return
+        with self.lock:
+            n = 0
+            for lid, pay in verdicts.items():
+                lot = self.state["open"].get(lid)
+                if lot:
+                    self._settle(lid, lot, pay)
+                    n += 1
+            if n:
+                self.persist()
+
+    def _settle(self, lid, lot, pay):  # under lock
+        pnl = round(lot["shares"] * pay - lot["cost"] - lot["fee"], 2)
+        self.state["pnl_realized"] = round(self.state["pnl_realized"] + pnl, 2)
+        c = self.state["counters"]
+        c["settled_total"] += 1
+        c["settle_clob"] += 1
+        rec = {**lot, "payout": pay, "provisional": True,
+               "settled_ts": int(time.time()), "pnl": pnl}
+        self.state["settled"].append(rec)
+        del self.state["settled"][:-SETTLED_TRIM]
+        del self.state["open"][lid]
+        try:
+            with open(SETTLES, "a") as fh:
+                fh.write(json.dumps(rec) + "\n")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ settles log write failed: {e}")
+        word = "WON" if pay == 1.0 else "refund" if pay == 0.5 else "lost"
+        log(f"SETTLE {word} {lot['title'][:34]} {pnl:+.2f} · "
+            f"realized {self.state['pnl_realized']:+.2f}")
+
+    # ── plumbing ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    def persist(self):
+        tmp = STATE + ".tmp"
+        json.dump(self.state, open(tmp, "w"))
+        os.replace(tmp, STATE)
+
+    def trim_maps(self):               # under lock (minute loop)
+        now = time.time()
+        if len(self.last_px) > 400000:
+            self.last_px = {a: v for a, v in self.last_px.items()
+                            if now - v[0] < MAP_IDLE_TRIM_S}
+        day = int(now // 86400)
+        self.fired = {k for k in self.fired if k[2] >= day - 1}
+
+    def feed_dict(self):               # under lock
+        stt = self.state
+        return {
+            "mode": "paper", "study": "lean (Study C stage-2)",
+            "sem_ver": SEM_VER, "updated": int(time.time()),
+            "boot_ts": stt["boot_ts"],
+            "warmup_left_s": max(0, int(self.boot + WARMUP_S - time.time())),
+            "frozen": {"lean_usd": [LEAN_USD_MIN, LEAN_USD_MAX],
+                       "net_gross": NET_GROSS, "premium_cap": PREMIUM_CAP,
+                       "stake": STAKE, "band": BAND, "fee_rate": FEE_RATE,
+                       "max_per_event": MAX_PER_EVENT},
+            "set": self.set_meta, "set_age_s": int(time.time() - self.set_ts),
+            "tracked_inventories": len(self.inv),
+            "counters": stt["counters"], "pnl_realized": stt["pnl_realized"],
+            "open_n": len(stt["open"]),
+            "open": [{**l, "id": lid}
+                     for lid, l in list(stt["open"].items())[-200:]],
+            "settled": stt["settled"][-200:], "skips": stt["skips"][-100:],
+            "note": "verdict binds to #26; median ask-premium >= 8c over 3 "
+                    "days is the observational kill-switch (graded nightly "
+                    "from the attempts stream)"}
+
+
+SUB = json.dumps({"action": "subscribe", "subscriptions": [
+    {"topic": "activity", "type": "trades", "filters": ""},
+    {"topic": "activity", "type": "orders_matched", "filters": ""}]})
+
+
+def run_conn(tag, bot):
+    backoff = 2
+    while True:
+        state = {"fresh": time.time()}
+
+        def on_open(ws):
+            ws.send(SUB)
+            state["fresh"] = time.time()
+            log(f"ws[{tag}]: connected")
+
+            def ping():
+                while ws.keep_running:
+                    time.sleep(5)
+                    try:
+                        ws.send('{"action":"ping"}')
+                    except Exception:
+                        break
+                    if time.time() - state["fresh"] > 20:
+                        try:
+                            ws.close()
+                        except Exception:
+                            pass
+                        break
+            threading.Thread(target=ping, daemon=True).start()
+
+        def on_message(ws, raw):
+            state["fresh"] = time.time()
+            try:
+                m = json.loads(raw)
+            except Exception:
+                return
+            if m.get("topic") != "activity":
+                return
+            try:
+                if m.get("type") == "trades":
+                    bot.on_trade(m.get("payload") or {})
+                elif m.get("type") == "orders_matched":
+                    bot.on_match(m.get("payload") or {})
+            except Exception as e:
+                log(f"⚠ on_message error: {e}")
+
+        try:
+            app = websocket.WebSocketApp(WS_URL, on_open=on_open,
+                                         on_message=on_message)
+            app.run_forever(sslopt={"cert_reqs": ssl.CERT_NONE})
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"ws[{tag}]: {str(e)[:60]}")
+        time.sleep(backoff + (1 if tag == "b" else 0))
+        backoff = min(backoff * 2, 30)
+        if time.time() - state["fresh"] < 60:
+            backoff = 2
+
+
+def serve_feed(bot, port=8080):
+    from http.server import BaseHTTPRequestHandler, ThreadingHTTPServer
+
+    class H(BaseHTTPRequestHandler):
+        def log_message(self, *a):
+            pass
+
+        def do_GET(self):
+            if self.path.split("?")[0] != "/feed":
+                self.send_response(404)
+                self.end_headers()
+                return
+            with bot.lock:
+                body = json.dumps(bot.feed_dict()).encode()
+            self.send_response(200)
+            self.send_header("Content-Type", "application/json")
+            self.send_header("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
+            self.send_header("Cache-Control", "no-store")
+            self.send_header("Content-Length", str(len(body)))
+            self.end_headers()
+            self.wfile.write(body)
+
+    ThreadingHTTPServer(("0.0.0.0", port), H).serve_forever()
+
+
+def selftest():
+    """Boot gate — hard exit on failure."""
+    bot = LeanBot.__new__(LeanBot)
+    bot.state = fresh_state()
+    bot.lock = threading.Lock()
+    bot.boot = time.time() - WARMUP_S - 1
+    bot.sharps = {"0xsharp"}
+    bot.set_meta, bot.set_ts = {}, time.time()
+    bot.inv, bot.fired = {}, set()
+    bot.last_px, bot.cond_assets, bot.tok_meta = {}, {}, {}
+    bot.book_q = queue.Queue(4)
+    jobs = []
+    bot.book_q.put_nowait = lambda j: jobs.append(j)   # capture, no network
+
+    def mk(w, a, side, px, sz, cond="c1"):
+        return {"proxyWallet": w, "asset": a, "side": side, "price": px,
+                "size": sz, "conditionId": cond, "eventSlug": "ev1",
+                "title": "T", "outcome": "X"}
+    bot.on_trade({"asset": "tokA", "price": 0.30, "conditionId": "c1",
+                  "eventSlug": "ev1", "title": "T", "outcome": "X"})
+    bot.on_trade({"asset": "tokB", "price": 0.70, "conditionId": "c1",
+                  "eventSlug": "ev1", "title": "T", "outcome": "Y"})
+    # not in set -> ignored
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xrando", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 2000))
+    assert not jobs, "non-set wallet fired"
+    # in set, sub-threshold ($60) -> no fire
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 200))
+    assert not jobs, "sub-threshold fired"
+    # crosses $150 one-sided -> fires on tokA
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 400))
+    assert len(jobs) == 1, f"expected 1 job, got {len(jobs)}"
+    assert jobs[0]["asset"] == "tokA" and jobs[0]["side"] == 1
+    assert jobs[0]["print"] == 0.30, jobs[0]["print"]
+    # same (wallet, token, day) cannot fire twice
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokA", "BUY", 0.30, 400))
+    assert len(jobs) == 1, "re-fired same day"
+    # net-short lean routes to the complement token
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokB", "SELL", 0.70, 400))
+    assert len(jobs) == 2 and jobs[1]["asset"] == "tokA", jobs[1]
+    assert jobs[1]["side"] == -1
+    # over the $500 band edge -> counted, no job
+    bot.on_match(mk("0xsharp", "tokZ", "BUY", 0.50, 4000))
+    assert len(jobs) == 2, "over-band fired"
+    assert bot.state["counters"]["skip"]["band_usd"] == 1
+    # walk_asks: cap respected, partials kept
+    r = walk_asks([{"price": 0.33, "size": 100}, {"price": 0.40, "size": 900}],
+                  0.33)
+    assert r["filled"] and abs(r["usd"] - 33.0) < 1e-6 and r["partial"], r
+    r2 = walk_asks([{"price": 0.99, "size": 10}], 0.33)
+    assert not r2["filled"] and r2["best_ask"] == 0.99, r2
+    assert WARMUP_S >= 60, "warmup must exceed a burst window"
+    log("selftest OK")
+
+
+def main():
+    selftest()
+    bot = LeanBot()
+    bot.refresh_set()
+    if not bot.sharps:
+        log("⚠ no maker set yet — idling until the nightly publishes one")
+    threading.Thread(target=serve_feed, args=(bot,), daemon=True).start()
+    for i in range(BOOK_WORKERS):
+        threading.Thread(target=bot.book_worker, daemon=True).start()
+    for tag in ("a", "b"):
+        threading.Thread(target=run_conn, args=(tag, bot), daemon=True).start()
+    tick = 0
+    while True:
+        time.sleep(60)
+        tick += 1
+        try:
+            if time.time() - bot.set_ts > SET_REFRESH_S:
+                bot.refresh_set()
+            if tick % 2 == 0:
+                bot.settle_clob_pass()
+            with bot.lock:
+                bot.trim_maps()
+                if tick % 5 == 0:
+                    bot.persist()
+                c = bot.state["counters"]
+                log(f"paper pnl {bot.state['pnl_realized']:+.2f} · open "
+                    f"{len(bot.state['open'])} · cross {c['crossings']} "
+                    f"att {c['attempts']} fill {c['fills']} "
+                    f"prem-skip {c['premium_skips']} crat {c['craters']} · "
+                    f"inv {len(bot.inv)} · set {len(bot.sharps)} · "
+                    f"settled {c['settled_total']}")
+        except Exception as e:
+            log(f"⚠ loop error: {e}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

research/maker_set.py

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Publish the walk-forward screened maker-sharp set for wwf-leanbot (#26).
+
+The bot must NEVER screen on its own live data — that is how a study
+starts selecting the wallets that happened to win during its own window.
+So the set is computed here, on tape strictly BEFORE today, exactly as
+maker_lean.py's screen_asof does (the frozen #22 method), and published
+to research/params/maker_set.json for the box to fetch.
+
+Wired into nightly.sh before the graders. Same contract as
+informed_set.py (surgebot's input): committed file = frozen input.
+"""
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+import time
+
+HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
+sys.path.insert(0, HERE)
+import tape                                    # noqa: E402
+import maker_lean as ml                        # noqa: E402
+
+OUT = os.path.join(HERE, "params", "maker_set.json")
+
+
+def main():
+    db = tape.connect()
+    # midnight UTC today — the set may only see strictly-prior tape
+    t_cut = int(time.time() // 86400) * 86400
+    sharps = ml.screen_asof(db, t_cut)
+    db.close()
+    out = {
+        "computed_at": int(time.time()),
+        "as_of": t_cut,
+        "method": "maker_lean.screen_asof (z>=2.5, >=6 resolved maker bets, "
+                  "pnl>0) on orders_matched strictly before as_of",
+        "frozen_params": {"lean_usd": [ml.LEAN_USD, 500.0],
+                          "net_gross": ml.NET_GROSS, "band": list(ml.BAND)},
+        "n": len(sharps),
+        "wallets": sorted(sharps),
+    }
+    os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(OUT), exist_ok=True)
+    tmp = OUT + ".tmp"
+    json.dump(out, open(tmp, "w"), indent=1)
+    os.replace(tmp, OUT)
+    print(f"[maker_set] {len(sharps)} wallets as-of "
+          f"{time.strftime('%F', time.gmtime(t_cut))} -> params/maker_set.json",
+          flush=True)
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())

research/nightly.sh

@@ -22,9 +22,30 @@ POLL_S=900
 # run: exit 1 + a stale lock that would have skipped every future night).
 LOCK="$(pwd)/.nightly.lock.d"
 if ! mkdir "$LOCK" 2>/dev/null; then
-  echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) already running — skip" >> forward.log
-  exit 0
+  # STALE-LOCK GUARD (2026-07-27): a killed run (pause, crash, reboot) can
+  # leave the dir behind — the EXIT trap never fires on SIGKILL — and every
+  # later night then skips SILENTLY. Trust the recorded PID: if it is gone,
+  # the lock is debris, so take it over.
+  OWNER=$(cat "$LOCK/pid" 2>/dev/null)
+  if [ -n "$OWNER" ]; then
+    if kill -0 "$OWNER" 2>/dev/null; then
+      echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) already running (pid $OWNER) — skip" >> forward.log
+      exit 0
+    fi
+    echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) STALE lock (pid $OWNER gone) — taking over" >> forward.log
+  else
+    # No pid file = a lock from before this guard existed (or a crash between
+    # mkdir and the write). Do NOT assume stale — that ran two nightlies at
+    # once on 2026-07-27. Age it out instead: 6h is longer than any real run.
+    AGE=$(( $(date +%s) - $(stat -f %m "$LOCK" 2>/dev/null || echo 0) ))
+    if [ "$AGE" -lt 21600 ]; then
+      echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) lock held (no pid, age ${AGE}s < 6h) — skip" >> forward.log
+      exit 0
+    fi
+    echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) STALE lock (no pid, age ${AGE}s) — taking over" >> forward.log
+  fi
 fi
+echo $$ > "$LOCK/pid"
 trap 'rmdir "$LOCK"' EXIT
 
 tape_age() {
@@ -52,14 +73,17 @@ done
 
 "$PY" forward.py >> forward.log 2>&1
 "$PY" informed_set.py >> forward.log 2>&1     # surge harness reads this daily
+"$PY" maker_set.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true       # leanbot input (#26)
 "$PY" grade_surge.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true   # A2 measurement -> chain truth
 "$PY" surge_book_replay.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true  # virtual $100/5% book
 "$PY" grade_oracle.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true  # oracle paper -> chain truth
 "$PY" grade_lag.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true      # lead-lag paper -> chain truth
+"$PY" grade_lean.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true     # maker-lean paper -> chain truth
 "$PY" meta_snap.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true     # market metadata (local gz)
 
 cd ..
 git add research/forward_ledger.jsonl research/params/informed_set.json \
+        research/lean_paper_ledger.jsonl research/params/maker_set.json \
         research/surge_paper_ledger.jsonl research/oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl research/lag_paper_ledger.jsonl \
         research/surge_meas_ledger.jsonl research/surge_book.json 2>/dev/null
 if ! git diff --cached --quiet; then

research/sharp_halflife.py

@@ -21,7 +21,23 @@ SIGNAL decay, not our execution (T3/T11 own execution).
 Outputs: EV/bet by age-in-set bucket (0-2d / 3-6d / 7-13d / 14d+),
 pooled AND per-wallet-day mean-of-means (concentration guard), plus the
 survival curve (fraction of detected wallets still published at age k).
-NOT pre-registered — informs a rotation policy for the follow set."""
+NOT pre-registered — informs a rotation policy for the follow set.
+
+VERDICT (2026-07-27, cached-only grading, COVERAGE 14%): NO EDGE DECAY.
+EV/bet by age-in-set: 0-2d +$13.75 (n=867) · 3-6d +$17.97 (n=839) ·
+7-13d +$22.24 (n=1,569) · 14d+ +$19.81 (n=2,406) — the FRESHEST bucket
+is the weakest and edge holds past two weeks. Set against the survival
+curve (49% of detections gone within 1 day, 11% at 28d), the churn is
+THRESHOLD JITTER around the z-cutoff, not wallets going stale.
+=> Do NOT build an age-based rotation rule; age is not a decay signal.
+Caveats: 14% coverage (cached chain truth only — rises on its own as
+other nightlies fill the payouts cache; rerun later to confirm) and
+top-5 wallets carry 44% of the pooled total.
+
+METHOD NOTE: ensure() over every cond these wallets ever touched was a
+TREADMILL (84k conds, RPC-bound, count grows daily) — five runs across
+five days never finished it. Cached-only + honest coverage answered the
+same question in minutes. Pass --ensure to crawl the tail anyway."""
 import collections
 import json
 import os
@@ -120,14 +136,29 @@ def main():
           flush=True)
 
     import payouts
+    # CACHED-ONLY grading (2026-07-27): ensure() over every cond these
+    # wallets ever touched is a TREADMILL — 84k conds, RPC-bound, and the
+    # count grows daily as they keep betting; five runs across five days
+    # never finished it. The question ("does edge decay after detection")
+    # does not need every historical bet: it needs an unbiased sample of
+    # post-detection ones. So grade what chain truth is ALREADY cached and
+    # report coverage; the cache fills from every other nightly anyway, so
+    # coverage rises on its own without a dedicated crawl.
     conds = sorted({b[1] for b in bets if b[1]})
-    print(f"ensuring {len(conds)} conds against chain…", flush=True)
-    payouts.ensure(conds)
+    if "--ensure" in sys.argv:
+        print(f"ensuring {len(conds)} conds against chain…", flush=True)
+        payouts.ensure(conds)
+    else:
+        print(f"cached-only grading over {len(conds)} conds "
+              f"(pass --ensure to crawl the uncached tail)", flush=True)
 
     per_bucket = {tag: [] for _, _, tag in BUCKETS}
     per_wd = {tag: collections.defaultdict(list) for _, _, tag in BUCKETS}
     graded = skipped = 0
     for w, cond, asset, p, ts in bets:
+        if ts is None or p is None:        # cache rows with no entry time
+            skipped += 1
+            continue
         if ts // 86400 < det_n[w]:
             continue                    # pre-detection bet
         pay = payouts.truth(cond, asset)
@@ -142,8 +173,11 @@ def main():
                 per_bucket[tag].append(ev)
                 per_wd[tag][(w, int(ts // 86400))].append(ev)
                 break
+    cov = 100 * graded / max(1, graded + skipped)
     print(f"chain-graded post-detection bets: {graded} "
-          f"(ungraded/refund skipped: {skipped})\n", flush=True)
+          f"(ungraded/refund skipped: {skipped}) · COVERAGE {cov:.0f}%"
+          f"{'  ⚠ low — treat buckets as indicative' if cov < 50 else ''}\n",
+          flush=True)
 
     print("EV BY AGE-IN-SET (per $100 at the wallet's own entry, feeless):",
           flush=True)

rtds_shadow.live.jsonl

@@ -1,574 +1,3 @@
-{"ts": 1784700710.5, "trade_ts": 1784700710, "lat_s": 0.5, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 10.188678, "price": 0.5299999666296256, "title": "", "tx": "0x8a12d5860ae25fa1ba5b063e2547b89ad48d1566b8228b8455a233bc720f5dc4", "seen": false}
-{"ts": 1784700715.65, "trade_ts": 1784700715, "lat_s": 0.65, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 9.717947, "price": 0.3899999660422104, "title": "", "tx": "0xa3bd0c391080a2acf14250c77be8102b567decdc06f72985d6db7a78504860ec", "seen": false}
-{"ts": 1784700716.49, "trade_ts": 1784700716, "lat_s": 0.49, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 30.337072, "price": 0.8899999973629624, "title": "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of July 20 2026?", "tx": "0x4cd8b0ef7fcd195e340a933a82d6a5234b42f60f326f3987417cd1a2e3fed4fa", "seen": false}
-{"ts": 1784700761.47, "trade_ts": 1784700761, "lat_s": 0.47, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 16.51, "price": 0.39, "title": "", "tx": "0x22644f69091b03ba217ef332b63fa0f4bb1b963bb9135706265ac9c4ec5482e1", "seen": false}
-{"ts": 1784700761.81, "trade_ts": 1784700761, "lat_s": 0.81, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 16.81818, "price": 0.55, "title": "", "tx": "0xf39201949d7eb28aef030548a1aeeb762951fc9a978f92f262b13fe1d126b247", "seen": false}
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