54 chain-graded parity+ signals @$100: maker bid at their price fills 93%
within 60s, EV/signal +$17.45 vs taker +$12.86 (+36%) — fee removal +
no pay-up. No adverse-selection asymmetry at the 60s window (winners fill
92% vs losers 94%); mild asymmetry only in patient tails, so 60s-then-
cancel is the shape. Queue-position optimism stated: maker wins while real
priority >~68%; markout re-read stream will refine. Candidate execution
change behind mirror-exactly + pre-registration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Paper pooled +18.6% (n=35, clears hurdle+2pp). Concentration: esports +22.0%
(n=29, 83% of stake) and gkmgkldfmg +33.4% (n=19). Live pooled ~breakeven at
$1-2 stakes (rounding drag, concentrated in the esports cell) — the #14
size-up tension in one table. Slippage by lag: <=3s fills BETTER than their
print (-0.66c mean). Exploratory measurement; cells small; meta-niche
coverage 0% until snapshots accrue (title fallback used).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Bench promotion per the #13 method run early: +17.4%/+33.5% both windows
(n=5), insider z 2.5 (p_luck 0.7%), 64% day-of entries, 1% refunds.
gkmgkldfmg stays per user call. Live mirrors paper exactly.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A TimeoutExpired get leaves a size>0 partial that the exists-check treated
as success, so the console fallback never ran for timeouts; the caller's
parquet read then failed (no magic bytes), deleted the file, and the next
run repeated the identical loop — 8 hours of tape-head stall overnight
2026-07-23. Partials from timeouts are now removed and the fallback runs.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro