- Railway project magnificent-kindness DELETED (soft-delete, purges
2026-07-10) — retired-infra fully gone; requirements.txt loses its
Railway-detection rationale (stdlib core, optional extras noted).
- tests/test_check_book.py: the Option A orphan-fix regression harness
moves into the repo (was session-local); 6 cases, no network/config.
- daily.sh: calibration step — one row/day of live-book vs backtest
equity to live/history/calibration.csv, the series that sizes real
money (day-zero row seeded: live $1,000 vs model $22,027).
- config.json.bak (untracked, stale copy of the leaked Alchemy key)
deleted locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
README: Set E + fresh-book framing in 'system today', /live page in the
dashboard row, --bank in the ops table, book-reset procedure row, gotchas
12-15 (three cache cursors, res_t is endDate metadata / price is the sold
discriminator / redeemable is resolution truth, refund-harvester
archetype, single-writer state-surgery rule). FINDINGS: three new
sections — aligning the three books (7/9 cross-check, honest 29.1k->17.4k,
Set E selection), the refund harvesters, the calibration experiment
(in-sample warning + bank-size ceiling effect). HANDOFF rev 3: fresh
pickup with watch-list, rejected-with-evidence list, Phase 2 framing.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
$500 Set E 30d: $14,140 (+2728%) vs $1,000's +2103% — smaller books
compound purer because 4% stakes hit the their-bet ceilings later.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Abort -> hard-reset to origin -> re-commit the running book. The
process is the book's single writer; remote state surgery must stop
the bot first (2026-07-08 BOOK RESET race: stale boot clone rebased
old state onto the reset and every publish died in UU until reboot).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Old book (started Jun 25, Sets B–D, ended $1,000 bank / +$229.79
realized / 8 open discarded) lives in git history and
archive/copybot_fills.pre-reset-2026-07-08.jsonl. Clean slate so the
book measures Set E from day one.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
First list on the aligned taxonomy. Notable: 0xb0E43B and
ArbTraderRookie's records reveal refund-harvesting (~800/1150 EXACT-0.5
redeems on ITF totals bought under 50c — $148k of 0xb0E43B's $218k) —
real edge, but 1-2c/share margins that taker copies can't clear.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
rtally now uses the same redeem-vs-sell price discriminator as the
backtest (exit_p ≈ payout ⇒ held; mid print ⇒ SOLD). The sign-only
tally counted a mirror-seller's exits as wins — 0xb0E43B read '94.4%
all-time' on 937 sells with almost no held outcomes. Win% is held-only
now, sold P&L stays in the P&L columns, all_sold/conv_sold/conv30_sold
populate for the dashboard's +NS record chips.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Chosen by the aligned honest 30d replay (2026-07-08): Set E $24.4k
(+2338%) vs Set D $17.4k (+1636%); every member positive in the shared
book. oliman2/leegunner excluded on the anti-survivorship audit.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Audit of the two biggest All-Time-vs-PM divergences (oliman2, leegunner)
proved the fold-in RIGHT and PM's leaderboard wrong: live per-position
sums reproduce our numbers to the dollar (oliman2 +181,594 closed
-160,644 abandoned = ~+19k true vs leaderboard 112k; leegunner +323,707
-58,762 = ~274k true vs 347k). redeemable is exact (set on resolution
for winners AND losers); pinning misfolded a few unresolved longshots.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Three fixes from the 2026-07-08 alignment audit (bot feed vs replay,
row-by-row):
1. sold-detection no longer trusts res_t alone — for in-play markets
res_t is endDate metadata (game-DAY midnight, pre-dates the entry) so
the timestamp test never fired and every in-play sell booked as
held-to-resolution. Price is the fallback truth: a redeem prints
exactly the payout, a real sell prints a mid price (>2c off payout).
2. round trips on resolved-on-chain markets are booked, not dropped —
when the trusted cache row never qualifies (bogus forward res_t:
Chidekh 'unresolved until Jul 14' on a Jul-5 match) the bet used to
vanish; now redeem-closes book at chain truth, sell-closes mirror.
3. Set-D wallets gate on the bot's PINNED floors (copybot.paper.json),
not a recomputed p80 that drifts a few % and takes different bets.
Also: resolved display slice 60 -> 250 rows.
Cross-check: 9 settled Set-D bot bets -> 7 agree, 0 absent, 2 diffs that
are real execution gaps (bot missed the sharp's exit, rode to
resolution) — each book records what actually happened to IT.
Equity 30d: $29.1k -> $17.4k (+1636%) — the flattering artifacts are gone.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The daily freshen reset the bets + exits cursors but never pulled_entries,
so a watchlist wallet's first_buy map went up to 14 days stale and
portfolio.py silently dropped every bet on conds entered since the last
pull (`if not et: continue`) — neither resolved nor open. Kruto2027's
Jul-7 Brewers bets (visible SOLD in the live bot) and two losing bets
were absent from the backtest for exactly this. Entries re-pulled for
Set D + portfolio regenerated: Kruto 43->49 bets, both Brewers rows
booked, hidden losses folded in.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro