The 25k-row (500-page) full-history backfill × 90 sharp wallets stalled the
daily pipeline for 4+ hours on its first uncached pass. 4000 rows (80 pages)
covers the 30d backtest and most of the 180d display window; the exits cache
is incremental so the horizon extends on later runs. Extreme scalpers keep a
hold-to-res ceiling on their deepest history (honest, and none are followed).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
_handle_their_buy referenced their_prev in the fresh-OPEN branch but only
assigned it in the is_add branch — every new position crashed with
UnboundLocalError the moment the their-bet ceiling landed 2026-07-06. The
webhook/heartbeat try/except swallowed it as 'handler error', so the bot
logged FOLLOW then silently placed NOTHING (last real fill 07-05 23:17;
live Fly logs show FOLLOW ArbTrader ... -> heartbeat error: their_prev).
This is the primary cause of 'live bot missing bets'. Fix: hoist their_prev
above the if/else so both branches see the signal's prior position.
Also (the user's two asks):
- copybot on_wallet_activity: a QUALIFYING bet we were too slow to catch
(webhook missed / bot down / fast market resolved before we polled) is now
recorded as a missed bet 'too slow to follow (Nm late)' instead of silently
dropped; below-floor dust stays console-only. Filter runs before the stale
gate so we know if it would have qualified.
- sync_floors.py rewritten: PIN each paper-bot wallet's floor to the trusted
cache p80 (identical to the backtest's conv_thr), written to
copybot.paper.json, wired into daily.sh + committed. Kills the boot-time
data-api floor drift (fortuneking $1,498 boot vs $892 backtest) that made
the live bot filter out bets the backtest kept.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The key does not belong in any committed file — the worker reads the RPC
from ALCHEMY_RPC_URL env (or the gitignored config.json locally). Rotating
the key is the real fix (it hit the public repo history); this removes it
from HEAD.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
config.live.json is gitignored (holds the key) so the Fly worker can't see
it. This committed twin carries the synced 8-wallet follow set + $5 test
caps + separate feed/fills; the worker reads it and injects the key via
LIVE_PRIVATE_KEY env (copybot 1.2). Mac path: cp to config.live.json, fill
the key. Fixes 'stale shisan888 follow set' + the cloud-config gap.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
copybot.py:
- 1.1 feed_path/fill_log are config-driven (live run won't clobber the
paper book's feed or fills ledger)
- 1.2 LIVE_PRIVATE_KEY / LIVE_FUNDER_ADDRESS / LIVE_SIGNATURE_TYPE env
overrides (Fly worker has no gitignored config.live.json)
- 1.4 chain_cash_gap(): live-only book-cash vs CLOB USDC balance, logged
as ⚠ CASH≠CHAIN (the real-money ledger_drift)
- 1.5 geo-gate is FATAL in live mode — unauth order probe; refuses to arm
from a 403-geo-blocked box before the confirm phrase (verified: refuses
from this US Mac)
- 1.6 mirror-exit retry: FAK sells that fill 0 on thin books retry each
backstop poll, ⚠ EXIT STUCK alert after 10 unfilled attempts
discord_daily.py: --ping retries 4x (5/10/15s) — launchd wakes the Mac to
run daily.sh and the heads-up ping was racing DNS/WiFi coming up after
sleep (getaddrinfo 'nodename nor servname'); the end-of-run digest always
landed, only the start ping lost the race.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
/closed-positions serves 50-row pages regardless of limit; stepping by the
requested size truncated every wallet's exit history to its most recent ~50
closes (1% coverage for hyperactive wallets) — sold-mirroring was silently
falling back to the hold-to-res ceiling almost everywhere. Now: page by
returned size, cache exits incrementally in duckdb (immutable events —
deep backfill once, a page or two per refresh; title/outcome columns for
display). Deep-exit 30d replay: $18,270 (+1727%), 259W/79L/29R/284S,
misses 253 -> 1 (mirrored exits recycle capital as fast as the signal does).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
smart_money.closed_exits() is now the shared implementation (backtest +
sharps): close time from /closed-positions, exit price reconstructed from
realized P&L. validate_timing's conv/conv30/all-time/realized tallies count
a bet the wallet sold pre-resolution at its exit price (conv_sold /
conv30_sold / all_sold fields) instead of pretending it rode to resolution.
Beyond the ~4000-row data horizon exits fall back to hold-to-res.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The replay held everything to resolution while the live bot mirrors exits —
two different strategies wearing one dashboard. Now, when a followed wallet
fully closed a position pre-resolution, the replay sells there too: close
time from /closed-positions, exit price reconstructed as
avgPrice + realizedPnl/totalBought, exit taker fee + slippage haircut paid.
Complete in-window round trips on unresolved markets (entered AND exited —
previously invisible to the replay) are included; on-chain-resolved conds
are excluded from round-trip synthesis so redeems can't masquerade as
sells. Sold legs count apart from W/L/R (they're price events, not
outcomes): 30d now 226W/55L/84R/31S, $12,730 (+1173%) — mirrored exits
bank the wallets' early profit-taking that hold-to-resolution left behind.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The honest 30d backtest: $1k -> $2,538 (+154%), 78W/18L/112R — not the
refund-inflated +8,627%. Sharp list: 33 copy-positive holders under truth
gates; 0x4bFb-whale and ArbTrader no longer qualify (their conviction
records were carried by 50/50 refunds counted as wins). portfolio.py now
reports refunds as R, not L (a scratch is not a loss).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The backtest reads positions (state); the bot reads trades (events). A trade
during downtime was silently baselined away at the next boot — not copied,
not missed, invisible — while the backtest still showed it (2026-07-07:
9 ArbTrader positions opened into the Fly trial-expiry crash-loop appeared
only in portfolio.json's current list). Now every boot + backstop poll
records any unseeded, unheld, unrecorded position that clears the follow
filter as a missed bet (reason 'bot offline'), settled hypothetically like
every other miss. Never copied — the entry is stale by definition. Dust
below risk.min_order_usd is ignored; API failure skips (silence is never
data). Bets that open AND close entirely within downtime stay the
backtest's domain.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The cache's won (curPrice>=0.5 at pull) counts 50/50 refunds as wins for
BOTH sides — 521 of 2,128 chain-checked follow-set markets (24%) were
refunds, which is where the whales' 92-100% displayed win rates came from.
- live/payouts.py: resolutions table in cache.duckdb, filled from the CTF
contract's payout vectors (batched+paced JSON-RPC, ~12 calls/s free tier;
resolved rows immutable, unresolved recheck 6h, RPC failures never cached).
truth(cond, asset) -> 1/0/0.5/None; refunds need no asset side.
- validate_timing: every displayed stat (conv/conv30/all-time/realized/copy
replay) settles at truth; refunds count as neither W nor L, P&L is
size*(wp-p)/p; new conv_ref/conv30_ref/all_ref feed fields.
- trust.conviction_record: optional truthfn — the selection gates
(trust_wr/trust_roi) no longer select on refund inflation.
- portfolio.py: replay pays wp (refunds 0.5/share, was 1.0).
- conviction_scan: documented as the (refund-inflated) candidate layer;
final selection re-judges against truth downstream.
Validation: 0x4bFb-whale conv 174-16 91.6% $1.61M -> 34-16 +140ref 68%
$214k, and truth-adjusted all-time P&L now sits within ~16% of lb-api's
PM P&L (was 7x apart); LSB1 (0 refunds) byte-identical, its P&L matches
PM P&L to 0.07%.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
copybot[bot]