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diagnosability: gate first-failure tally + BH no-pass message says why
...
validate_timing: the holder gate went 37->34->14->0 across runs and the
log said only '0 copy-positive holders' — which condition bit took an
hour of hand queries to reconstruct. Now every run prints the
first-failure breakdown (today: inactive_30d 48, PASS 34, copy_pnl<=0
20, trust_roi<=0 7, trust_wr<55% 3).
skill.py: a BH threshold of 0.0 is NOT a broken bar — it is 'nobody
cleared FDR'. With 1,207 simultaneous tests the rank-1 bar is p<=4.1e-5
and the best wallet is 1.7e-4, so a z~3 record is no longer
distinguishable from luck. The message now says that with the numbers.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-08-02 21:54:49 -04:00
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