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research: forward ledger 2026-07-28 [skip ci]
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live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
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cache: wait out the single-writer lock at import instead of raising
...
duckdb is single-writer and cache.py connects at IMPORT time, so any
daily/nightly overlap raised out of 'import cache' — which killed
forward.py and, via nightly.sh's set -e, every grader behind it. Twice
now (07-27, 07-28) the night's grades silently never ran. Bounded wait
(24x15s) covers a collect pass; all consumers inherit the fix.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
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HANDOFF: live bot paused 2026-07-27 + the 5-share-minimum finding that motivated it
...
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
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venue 5-share minimum: skip honestly instead of firing doomed orders; lag tile = median + basis
...
Polymarket rejects any order under 5 shares regardless of value ('Size
(1.47) lower than the minimum: 5'). That is a PRICE-dependent dollar
floor the $-only gate could not see: at the live book's $1 braked stake
only <=20c markets are reachable, so every 40-90c signal fired an order
that could not succeed (12 'invalid amount' + 13 size rejections in 3d).
gate_buy now blocks with the shares needed and the dollars required.
Lag tile: median not mean (one 269s rollout outlier made a 3s bot read
25s) + a 'basis' field so an empty 24h window is labeled lifetime.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
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