6162a687c0
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-08-01 23:12:20 -04:00
34d20823de
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-30 21:21:17 -04:00
417490f49a
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-29 16:27:56 -04:00
a52116eb69
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-28 13:48:26 -04:00
dbfc77bfe3
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-27 11:26:40 -04:00
452d7b0b1b
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-25 15:49:06 -04:00
74704cd99d
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-24 13:38:58 -04:00
7f33c66a5c
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-23 10:43:47 -04:00
4015cf0230
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-22 12:48:54 -04:00
6892aa5b1e
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-21 12:19:03 -04:00
8987bceb42
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-20 13:19:59 -04:00
dfb562645f
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-19 12:54:10 -04:00
0d608103d3
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-18 10:36:27 -04:00
80ebdb6616
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-17 21:39:05 -04:00
adbbb784c3
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-16 15:36:43 -04:00
954a2c8a21
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-15 11:25:19 -04:00
709faa2bca
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-15 00:59:11 -04:00
7334de070f
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-13 10:59:39 -04:00
3c300f48e2
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-12 10:58:08 -04:00
74508304a6
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-11 14:51:50 -04:00
a813ab7cb8
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-10 11:29:25 -04:00
cece7d7d3c
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-09 12:42:29 -04:00
d02fb05e9d
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-08 10:55:02 -04:00
a7b782cda8
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-06 14:50:42 -04:00
306fece6a7
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-05 12:57:42 -04:00
971204d58d
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-04 19:29:22 -04:00
0b83a5c81e
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-04 10:47:44 -04:00
6c3c966418
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-03 21:40:57 -04:00
2c59c2994b
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-02 23:12:37 -04:00
a184dbc1c1
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-02 10:03:33 -04:00
0f6d308eec
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-02 07:03:53 -06:00
f021016092
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-30 11:57:44 -06:00
41282f2629
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-29 11:38:12 -06:00
ead741584a
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-28 11:46:13 -06:00
c119ed8668
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-27 11:15:38 -06:00
ecd629fd5a
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-26 11:21:47 -06:00
9afa759c2d
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-25 10:12:26 -06:00
7f70cbee06
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-24 10:30:39 -06:00
8b1ccb93fc
live: commit dashboard.html each daily run (keep tree clean)
...
The daily run regenerates dashboard.html but the publish step never
committed it, leaving it perpetually modified. Add it to the publish git
add list and commit the current snapshot.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-06-23 12:46:20 -06:00
3d0bc7f001
Add live/ skilled-wallet scanner + cache; document clean OOS finding
...
live/: operationalizes the LBS/Yale "skilled ~3%" result against the live
data-api. Enumerate recent liquid markets -> top traders -> candidate pool;
cache every wallet's resolved bets once in DuckDB (~26k wallets / 12.5M bets,
keyed by per-bet resolution time so any cutoff re-scores in seconds); 5-gate
skill funnel (n>=15, z>0, BH-FDR, split-half OOS, MM/bot cap); dashboard +
daily refresh.
Key finding: copying the high-win-rate "favorite-rider" cohort looks +23.6%
in-sample but loses -7.4% once selected on pre-June-1 data only (99% -> 68%
win rate) — selection bias, reproducing the paper's "lucky winners revert"
result on live data. Win rate != edge, again.
wide/: bulk subgraph->DuckDB scanner (survivorship-bias-free over all wallets),
but the public subgraph is frozen at Jan 2026 -> historical tool only.
Large local data (*.duckdb, candidates.json, *_scored.json, history/) gitignored.
README + FINDINGS updated with the current logic and the clean result.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-06-18 11:16:20 -06:00
jaxperro