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jaxperro
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live/: operationalizes the LBS/Yale "skilled ~3%" result against the live data-api. Enumerate recent liquid markets -> top traders -> candidate pool; cache every wallet's resolved bets once in DuckDB (~26k wallets / 12.5M bets, keyed by per-bet resolution time so any cutoff re-scores in seconds); 5-gate skill funnel (n>=15, z>0, BH-FDR, split-half OOS, MM/bot cap); dashboard + daily refresh. Key finding: copying the high-win-rate "favorite-rider" cohort looks +23.6% in-sample but loses -7.4% once selected on pre-June-1 data only (99% -> 68% win rate) — selection bias, reproducing the paper's "lucky winners revert" result on live data. Win rate != edge, again. wide/: bulk subgraph->DuckDB scanner (survivorship-bias-free over all wallets), but the public subgraph is frozen at Jan 2026 -> historical tool only. Large local data (*.duckdb, candidates.json, *_scored.json, history/) gitignored. README + FINDINGS updated with the current logic and the clean result. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
121 lines
35 KiB
HTML
121 lines
35 KiB
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<!doctype html><html lang="en"><head><meta charset="utf-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1">
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<title>Skilled Wallets — Polymarket</title>
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</style></head><body><div class="wrap">
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<h1>Skilled Wallets <span style="color:var(--dim);font-weight:400;font-size:18px">· Polymarket</span></h1>
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<p class="sub">107 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-16 07:37</p>
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<div class="cards">
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Validated wallets</div><div class="v">107</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Median z</div><div class="v">4.0</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Median OOS z</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--green)">3.0</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Value / longshot</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--green)">69</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Favorite-rider</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--amber)">21</div></div>
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</div>
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<div class="controls">
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<input id="q" placeholder="search name or address…">
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<select id="arch"><option value="">All archetypes</option>
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<option value="value">Value / longshot</option>
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<option value="balanced">Balanced</option>
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<option value="favorite">Favorite-rider</option></select>
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<select id="sort">
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<option value="z">Sort: z (skill)</option>
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<option value="z_oos">Sort: out-of-sample z</option>
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<option value="band_0204">Sort: alpha-zone %</option>
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<option value="n">Sort: # bets</option>
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<option value="win_rate">Sort: win rate</option>
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</select>
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</div>
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<table id="tbl"><thead><tr>
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<th data-k="rank">#</th><th data-k="name">Wallet</th>
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<th data-k="z">z</th><th data-k="z_oos">OOS z</th>
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<th data-k="n">bets</th><th data-k="win_rate">win%</th>
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<th data-k="avg_entry">avg entry</th><th data-k="band_0204">alpha 0.2–0.4</th>
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<th data-k="arch">type</th>
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</tr></thead><tbody id="body"></tbody></table>
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<p class="note"><b>How to read it.</b> <b>z</b> = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). <b>OOS z</b> = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. <b>Alpha 0.2–0.4</b> = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. <span class="value" style="padding:1px 7px">Value</span> wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); <span class="favorite" style="padding:1px 7px">Favorite-rider</span> wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.</p>
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<script>
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const DATA=[{"wallet": "0x5f390e4b7d6f06d6756a6c92afdbf7b3176aa78c", "name": "oVyg7f", "weight": 0.0368, "tier": "validated", "z": 18.49, "z_oos": 8.38, "n": 2000, "win_rate": 66.0, "avg_entry": 0.57, "band_0204": 0.02, "rank": 1, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1320}, {"wallet": "0xf419556a9758214628edff29dce8f39a8aa13ce7", "name": "2j289uUmAio7ap245975", "weight": 0.0355, "tier": "validated", "z": 17.85, "z_oos": 9.4, "n": 2091, "win_rate": 69.7, "avg_entry": 0.51, "band_0204": 0.13, "rank": 2, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1457}, {"wallet": "0x2257901897e83d39e778fa86d568dc1cd9a2dca2", "name": "iuii899889", "weight": 0.0198, "tier": "validated", "z": 9.97, "z_oos": 6.51, "n": 1539, "win_rate": 50.0, "avg_entry": 0.38, "band_0204": 0.25, "rank": 3, "arch": "value", "wins": 770}, {"wallet": "0x9ace6559d0c1fe92c360503c6dbcd962e15f0f16", "name": "Jach9394", "weight": 0.0192, "tier": "validated", "z": 9.64, "z_oos": 7.7, "n": 2128, "win_rate": 47.8, "avg_entry": 0.38, "band_0204": 0.46, "rank": 4, "arch": "value", "wins": 1017}, {"wallet": "0xda24f0caf5766fc36df8ac2f6ae3a567b71a9f1f", "name": "Thewinwin", "weight": 0.0183, "tier": "validated", "z": 9.18, "z_oos": 6.84, "n": 2001, "win_rate": 41.0, "avg_entry": 0.32, "band_0204": 0.31, "rank": 5, "arch": "value", "wins": 820}, {"wallet": "0x14d2bf01e3e7bac9b1799265db3c7d8a993dfa3e", "name": "8998yueyye", "weight": 0.0181, "tier": "validated", "z": 9.09, "z_oos": 5.89, "n": 1532, "win_rate": 49.9, "avg_entry": 0.39, "band_0204": 0.25, "rank": 6, "arch": "value", "wins": 764}, {"wallet": "0x97892305f3b5569c32d16f4ed70f840dd7e61ae7", "name": "0x97892305f3b5569c32d16f4ed70F840dd7e61ae7-1770916318891", "weight": 0.0177, "tier": "validated", "z": 8.9, "z_oos": 6.92, "n": 1806, "win_rate": 44.5, "avg_entry": 0.35, "band_0204": 0.51, "rank": 7, "arch": "value", "wins": 804}, {"wallet": "0xf820ceebb69255955e9d04367259c84e8e7f0485", "name": "2iq", "weight": 0.0173, "tier": "validated", "z": 8.68, "z_oos": 13.09, "n": 2000, "win_rate": 16.8, "avg_entry": 0.11, "band_0204": 0.1, "rank": 8, "arch": "value", "wins": 336}, {"wallet": "0x49818089c6e2755e0e300a48a8dc4747cf9cd2b4", "name": "0x49818089\u2026", "weight": 0.0165, "tier": "validated", "z": 8.3, "z_oos": 4.81, "n": 1334, "win_rate": 61.6, "avg_entry": 0.51, "band_0204": 0.26, "rank": 9, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 822}, {"wallet": "0x1b44945f8992fcea2b43034557e47d11827fd8de", "name": "BrickThrower", "weight": 0.0152, "tier": "validated", "z": 7.65, "z_oos": 5.57, "n": 2063, "win_rate": 45.1, "avg_entry": 0.38, "band_0204": 0.23, "rank": 10, "arch": "value", "wins": 930}, {"wallet": "0x2f633efb75256a2f2445110c8978684ab8936643", "name": "AI.AGENT.2026", "weight": 0.0144, "tier": "validated", "z": 7.24, "z_oos": 4.26, "n": 573, "win_rate": 92.0, "avg_entry": 0.82, "band_0204": 0.05, "rank": 11, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 527}, {"wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", "name": "hfdffdhr", "weight": 0.0135, "tier": "validated", "z": 6.78, "z_oos": 4.21, "n": 1396, "win_rate": 49.2, "avg_entry": 0.41, "band_0204": 0.2, "rank": 12, "arch": "value", "wins": 687}, {"wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", "name": "oliman2", "weight": 0.0126, "tier": "validated", "z": 6.31, "z_oos": 3.63, "n": 1933, "win_rate": 52.0, "avg_entry": 0.47, "band_0204": 0.15, "rank": 13, "arch": "value", "wins": 1005}, {"wallet": "0xd82273662ba061a46f62a479de7303266f98000f", "name": "1234zxcv07", "weight": 0.0126, "tier": "validated", "z": 6.31, "z_oos": 3.09, "n": 1054, "win_rate": 71.2, "avg_entry": 0.64, "band_0204": 0.12, "rank": 14, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 750}, {"wallet": "0x751a2b86cab503496efd325c8344e10159349ea1", "name": "Sharky6999", "weight": 0.0121, "tier": "validated", "z": 6.07, "z_oos": 3.13, "n": 2002, "win_rate": 96.3, "avg_entry": 0.94, "band_0204": 0.01, "rank": 15, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1928}, {"wallet": "0xc850cf70d9da621ff0c219f625c9623f88b78c51", "name": "0xc850cf70\u2026", "weight": 0.0119, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.97, "z_oos": 3.98, "n": 2000, "win_rate": 50.1, "avg_entry": 0.44, "band_0204": 0.32, "rank": 16, "arch": "value", "wins": 1002}, {"wallet": "0xba8c5fbcc5f58b0e4ae0c1413e0413f8c803e77d", "name": "Rock.San", "weight": 0.0116, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.81, "z_oos": 2.63, "n": 2001, "win_rate": 95.8, "avg_entry": 0.93, "band_0204": 0.01, "rank": 17, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1917}, {"wallet": "0x85c0272a4c6334e4cb1212b4e5cda66e68519231", "name": "ferrusqwed", "weight": 0.0111, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.57, "z_oos": 3.46, "n": 2229, "win_rate": 48.7, "avg_entry": 0.43, "band_0204": 0.27, "rank": 18, "arch": "value", "wins": 1086}, {"wallet": "0xa75f077c6e2510b020967c6230bac2bf342300f0", "name": "0xa75f077c\u2026", "weight": 0.0111, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.56, "z_oos": 4.03, "n": 1772, "win_rate": 49.4, "avg_entry": 0.43, "band_0204": 0.33, "rank": 19, "arch": "value", "wins": 875}, {"wallet": "0x18954a8003ebbbdaa4d9190cd2505382a5b902fb", "name": "Si-gambler", "weight": 0.0109, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.48, "z_oos": 4.07, "n": 1651, "win_rate": 40.4, "avg_entry": 0.35, "band_0204": 0.28, "rank": 20, "arch": "value", "wins": 667}, {"wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", "name": "kjjdhfgsg", "weight": 0.0109, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.48, "z_oos": 0.75, "n": 1182, "win_rate": 49.8, "avg_entry": 0.42, "band_0204": 0.23, "rank": 21, "arch": "value", "wins": 589}, {"wallet": "0x30dc7f0cfa4c98590b1c77dd92c82570efa5eb4b", "name": "napahp", "weight": 0.0107, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.4, "z_oos": 2.21, "n": 2243, "win_rate": 48.2, "avg_entry": 0.43, "band_0204": 0.35, "rank": 22, "arch": "value", "wins": 1081}, {"wallet": "0x8548f0fae7636fc17ca6bb2cbae39cbd4fbce4c1", "name": "madoka123", "weight": 0.0103, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.2, "z_oos": 5.3, "n": 2012, "win_rate": 94.1, "avg_entry": 0.92, "band_0204": 0.01, "rank": 23, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1893}, {"wallet": "0x8d650d146740463611db1f3974ae9b922953ce8f", "name": "PWBR", "weight": 0.0102, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.15, "z_oos": 2.77, "n": 2016, "win_rate": 39.4, "avg_entry": 0.35, "band_0204": 0.11, "rank": 24, "arch": "value", "wins": 794}, {"wallet": "0xb595d09ce5bbc4d39e3b3d04e80c402d2c8d5922", "name": "0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105", "weight": 0.0101, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.08, "z_oos": 3.45, "n": 2000, "win_rate": 99.9, "avg_entry": 0.99, "band_0204": 0.0, "rank": 25, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1998}, {"wallet": "0x858c18cd25e722892a60506a3e54c4ecbca84936", "name": "52434624366255247", "weight": 0.0101, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.06, "z_oos": 4.15, "n": 2000, "win_rate": 98.6, "avg_entry": 0.97, "band_0204": 0.0, "rank": 26, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1972}, {"wallet": "0x8a37fe3a49a36de9facd04bd09ee379211f7c99c", "name": "ggmggn", "weight": 0.01, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.01, "z_oos": 4.76, "n": 2000, "win_rate": 89.2, "avg_entry": 0.88, "band_0204": 0.0, "rank": 27, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1784}, {"wallet": "0x7ca56b03105371839e4a3d98f4c1059d10d784bc", "name": "MyBettingFuture", "weight": 0.01, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.0, "z_oos": 3.59, "n": 2019, "win_rate": 98.7, "avg_entry": 0.97, "band_0204": 0.0, "rank": 28, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1993}, {"wallet": "0xab8a8dafae74a018683748d070cb9e349cc2154e", "name": "0xaB8A8dafAE74A018683748d070Cb9E349CC2154e-1771847292775", "weight": 0.0099, "tier": "validated", "z": 4.99, "z_oos": 2.13, "n": 1943, "win_rate": 38.4, "avg_entry": 0.34, "band_0204": 0.18, "rank": 29, "arch": "value", "wins": 746}, {"wallet": "0xe52785eab686a52fa47b9396d3343e2908315471", "name": "0xe52785eaB686a52FA47B9396D3343e2908315471-1775532473233", "weight": 0.0099, "tier": "validated", "z": 4.97, "z_oos": 2.98, "n": 273, "win_rate": 36.6, "avg_entry": 0.25, "band_0204": 0.15, "rank": 30, "arch": "value", "wins": 100}, {"wallet": "0x472e77443a5a8693f6bd0dad933a61285bd7ae19", "name": "ifailedmath", "weight": 0.0099, "tier": "validated", "z": 4.97, "z_oos": 6.42, "n": 2032, "win_rate": 53.3, "avg_entry": 0.49, "band_0204": 0.14, "rank": 31, "arch": "value", "wins": 1083}, {"wallet": "0xf3d54ccedcd08c9a203d28e332275e50770fdde9", "name": "0xf3d54cce\u2026", "weight": 0.0096, "tier": "validated", "z": 4.83, "z_oos": 3.96, "n": 1498, "win_rate": 49.3, "avg_entry": 0.43, "band_0204": 0.32, "rank": 32, "arch": "value", "wins": 739}, {"wallet": "0xcaee6125904f1ba1ee3f829328d0779f92d20900", "name": "Dedis", "weight": 0.0096, "tier": "validated", "z": 4.82, "z_oos": 4.9, "n": 859, "win_rate": 31.3, "avg_entry": 0.25, "band_0204": 0.24, "rank": 33, "arch": "value", "wins": 269}, {"wallet": "0x5f7832a6d8621345922490c74f4e525db20cbfca", "name": "pupe", "weight": 0.0095, "tier": "validated", "z": 4.79, "z_oos": 2.95, "n": 2000, "win_rate": 41.5, "avg_entry": 0.37, "band_0204": 0.18, "rank": 34, "arch": "value", "wins": 830}, {"wallet": 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"0x86520db4175cf4e7f7f646cae22365f1f3b61ccb", "name": "traxnorth", "weight": 0.0058, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.92, "z_oos": 1.0, "n": 2001, "win_rate": 42.7, "avg_entry": 0.4, "band_0204": 0.26, "rank": 96, "arch": "value", "wins": 854}, {"wallet": "0xb7ab821f037a4c8deb9b23b8001a4be985d116d0", "name": "funfacts", "weight": 0.0058, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.92, "z_oos": 3.07, "n": 2015, "win_rate": 63.7, "avg_entry": 0.61, "band_0204": 0.05, "rank": 97, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1284}, {"wallet": "0x4caee221267f30efdc751bbca7fdb7ffef10c482", "name": "Hinton07", "weight": 0.0057, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.88, "z_oos": 1.71, "n": 2011, "win_rate": 90.0, "avg_entry": 0.88, "band_0204": 0.0, "rank": 98, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1810}, {"wallet": "0x1d949489f736378cbde40db18c093c5cff459100", "name": "BullishBarb", "weight": 0.0057, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.87, "z_oos": 1.31, "n": 2108, "win_rate": 53.4, "avg_entry": 0.51, "band_0204": 0.25, "rank": 99, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1126}, {"wallet": "0x43d7c53c20814021da901e89bc0a582ee7881c75", "name": "STULAH", "weight": 0.0057, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.85, "z_oos": 3.3, "n": 2004, "win_rate": 44.3, "avg_entry": 0.41, "band_0204": 0.34, "rank": 100, "arch": "value", "wins": 888}, {"wallet": "0x55154a54cd74db752540dcd663a30cdb5c00eb8b", "name": "AK47ForLIFE", "weight": 0.0057, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.84, "z_oos": 2.64, "n": 1405, "win_rate": 41.5, "avg_entry": 0.38, "band_0204": 0.35, "rank": 101, "arch": "value", "wins": 583}, {"wallet": "0x15ac9d4fb9c30fca4fec2fdecde3fdace721f3ba", "name": "toireK", "weight": 0.0056, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.82, "z_oos": 3.4, "n": 2006, "win_rate": 96.7, "avg_entry": 0.96, "band_0204": 0.01, "rank": 102, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1940}, {"wallet": "0x229a29c0e1a54d3177d899af3b36ceb0f67b1bf0", "name": "HEROZ", "weight": 0.0056, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.82, "z_oos": 0.42, "n": 1352, "win_rate": 39.6, "avg_entry": 0.37, "band_0204": 0.18, "rank": 103, "arch": "value", "wins": 535}, {"wallet": "0x4d4bdf24c73473e5b68e230bd843a667276a153c", "name": "SisplacBII", "weight": 0.0056, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.79, "z_oos": 1.11, "n": 2100, "win_rate": 71.8, "avg_entry": 0.69, "band_0204": 0.02, "rank": 104, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1508}, {"wallet": "0x689c37af05b28153d718757a5b3c1008c4226b1e", "name": "amnesia12", "weight": 0.0055, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.78, "z_oos": 4.82, "n": 1854, "win_rate": 56.6, "avg_entry": 0.54, "band_0204": 0.14, "rank": 105, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1049}, {"wallet": "0x255ab4ffc544bccbcdc2e5891fa239c5a3813435", "name": "BaronOnThrone", "weight": 0.0055, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.76, "z_oos": 2.27, "n": 2001, "win_rate": 38.7, "avg_entry": 0.36, "band_0204": 0.4, "rank": 106, "arch": "value", "wins": 774}, {"wallet": "0x290367f43d250062f470bb531fde2e3ab32e9203", "name": "HarryRitter", "weight": 0.0055, "tier": "validated", "z": 2.74, "z_oos": 3.49, "n": 1611, "win_rate": 64.1, "avg_entry": 0.61, "band_0204": 0.12, "rank": 107, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1033}];
|
||
const fmtW=w=>w.length>14?w.slice(0,6)+'…'+w.slice(-4):w;
|
||
let sortK='z',asc=false,open=null;
|
||
const body=document.getElementById('body');
|
||
function render(){
|
||
const q=document.getElementById('q').value.toLowerCase();
|
||
const af=document.getElementById('arch').value;
|
||
let rows=DATA.filter(r=>(!af||r.arch===af)&&
|
||
(!q||(r.name||'').toLowerCase().includes(q)||r.wallet.toLowerCase().includes(q)));
|
||
rows.sort((a,b)=>{const x=a[sortK],y=b[sortK];return (asc?1:-1)*((x>y)-(x<y));});
|
||
body.innerHTML=rows.map(r=>{
|
||
const zc=r.z>=10?'var(--violet)':r.z>=6?'var(--green)':'var(--fg)';
|
||
const oc=r.z_oos>=5?'var(--green)':r.z_oos>=3?'var(--amber)':'var(--red)';
|
||
const bw=Math.round(r.band_0204*46);
|
||
return `<tr class="row" data-w="${r.wallet}">
|
||
<td>${r.rank}</td>
|
||
<td class="name">${r.name||fmtW(r.wallet)}<div class="mono">${fmtW(r.wallet)}</div></td>
|
||
<td class="z" style="color:${zc}">${r.z.toFixed(1)}</td>
|
||
<td class="z" style="color:${oc}">${r.z_oos==null?'—':r.z_oos.toFixed(1)}</td>
|
||
<td>${r.wins}/${r.n}</td>
|
||
<td>${r.win_rate.toFixed(0)}%</td>
|
||
<td>${r.avg_entry.toFixed(2)}</td>
|
||
<td><span class="bar" style="width:${bw}px"></span> ${(r.band_0204*100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
|
||
<td><span class="pill ${r.arch}">${r.arch}</span></td></tr>`;
|
||
}).join('')||'<tr><td colspan="9" style="text-align:center;color:var(--dim);padding:24px">no matches</td></tr>';
|
||
}
|
||
body.addEventListener('click',async e=>{
|
||
const tr=e.target.closest('tr.row'); if(!tr)return;
|
||
const w=tr.dataset.w;
|
||
const nx=tr.nextElementSibling;
|
||
if(nx&&nx.classList.contains('det')){nx.remove();return;}
|
||
document.querySelectorAll('tr.det').forEach(x=>x.remove());
|
||
const d=document.createElement('tr');d.className='det';
|
||
d.innerHTML=`<td colspan="9">loading recent trades… · <a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/${w}" target="_blank">open profile ↗</a></td>`;
|
||
tr.after(d);
|
||
try{
|
||
const r=await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity?user=${w}&type=TRADE&limit=8`);
|
||
const ts=await r.json();
|
||
const rows=(ts||[]).map(t=>`<div class="trade"><span class="${t.side==='BUY'?'b':'s'}">${t.side}</span>
|
||
<span>${(t.outcome||'')} · ${(t.title||'').slice(0,52)}</span>
|
||
<span style="margin-left:auto;color:var(--dim)">${((t.price||0)*100).toFixed(0)}¢</span></div>`).join('');
|
||
d.firstChild.innerHTML=`<a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/${w}" target="_blank">open profile ↗</a><div style="margin-top:6px">${rows||'no recent trades'}</div>`;
|
||
}catch(err){d.firstChild.innerHTML=`<a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/${w}" target="_blank">open profile ↗</a> · live feed unavailable`;}
|
||
});
|
||
document.querySelectorAll('th').forEach(th=>th.onclick=()=>{
|
||
const k=th.dataset.k; if(k===sortK)asc=!asc;else{sortK=k;asc=(k==='rank'||k==='avg_entry');} render();});
|
||
document.getElementById('q').oninput=render;
|
||
document.getElementById('arch').onchange=render;
|
||
document.getElementById('sort').onchange=e=>{sortK=e.target.value;asc=false;render();};
|
||
render();
|
||
</script></body></html> |