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live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
This commit is contained in:
jaxperro
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.b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}
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</style></head><body><div class="wrap">
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<h1>Skilled Wallets <span style="color:var(--dim);font-weight:400;font-size:18px">· Polymarket</span></h1>
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<p class="sub">23 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-02 10:03</p>
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<p class="sub">23 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-02 23:12</p>
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<div class="cards">
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Validated wallets</div><div class="v">23</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Median z</div><div class="v">5.5</div></div>
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+167
-167
@@ -10,24 +10,24 @@
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"fwd_win": 71.3,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.287,
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"fwd_n": 143,
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"conv_win": 72.6,
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"conv_won": 143,
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"conv_lost": 54,
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"conv_pnl": 16300,
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"conv30_win": 71.7,
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"conv30_won": 99,
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"conv30_lost": 39,
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"conv30_pnl": 13851,
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"realized_pnl": 15471,
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"avg_bet": 256,
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"copy_pnl": 2520,
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"held_pnl": 2234,
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"held_won": 80,
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"held_lost": 33,
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"conv_win": 72.4,
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"conv_won": 144,
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"conv_lost": 55,
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"conv_pnl": 15905,
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"conv30_win": 71.4,
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"conv30_won": 100,
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"conv30_lost": 40,
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"conv30_pnl": 13456,
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"realized_pnl": 15470,
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"avg_bet": 257,
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"copy_pnl": 2454,
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"held_pnl": 2167,
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"held_won": 79,
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"held_lost": 34,
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"sold": 3,
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"last_trade": 1782989699,
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"last_conv_bet": 1782969302,
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"med_lead_h": 2.2
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"last_trade": 1783046102,
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"last_conv_bet": 1783038002,
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"med_lead_h": 2.1
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543",
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@@ -37,26 +37,26 @@
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"train_z": 3.35,
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"avg_entry": 0.7,
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"train_n": 257,
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"fwd_win": 77.4,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.108,
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"fwd_n": 155,
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"conv_win": 78.1,
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"conv_won": 321,
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"conv_lost": 90,
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"conv_pnl": 86878,
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"conv30_win": 76.5,
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"conv30_won": 114,
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"conv30_lost": 35,
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"conv30_pnl": 29819,
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"realized_pnl": 12774,
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"fwd_win": 77.3,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.104,
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"fwd_n": 154,
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"conv_win": 78.0,
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"conv_won": 327,
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"conv_lost": 92,
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"conv_pnl": 87414,
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"conv30_win": 76.4,
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"conv30_won": 120,
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"conv30_lost": 37,
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"conv30_pnl": 30355,
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"realized_pnl": 11431,
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"avg_bet": 1905,
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"copy_pnl": 1555,
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"held_pnl": 1555,
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"held_won": 51,
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"held_lost": 31,
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"copy_pnl": 1196,
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"held_pnl": 1196,
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"held_won": 47,
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"held_lost": 34,
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"sold": 0,
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"last_trade": 1782958745,
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"last_conv_bet": 1782944155,
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"last_trade": 1783047715,
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"last_conv_bet": 1783040968,
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"med_lead_h": 2.8
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},
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{
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@@ -70,25 +70,55 @@
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"fwd_win": 76.9,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.498,
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"fwd_n": 52,
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"conv_win": 73.1,
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"conv_won": 209,
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"conv_win": 73.2,
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"conv_won": 210,
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"conv_lost": 77,
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"conv_pnl": 110163,
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"conv_pnl": 110288,
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"conv30_win": 76.5,
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"conv30_won": 39,
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"conv30_lost": 12,
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"conv30_pnl": 26512,
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"realized_pnl": 42260,
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"avg_bet": 773,
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"realized_pnl": 42540,
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"avg_bet": 771,
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"copy_pnl": 1158,
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"held_pnl": 267,
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"held_won": 8,
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"held_lost": 1,
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"sold": 29,
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"last_trade": 1782959222,
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"last_trade": 1783020635,
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"last_conv_bet": 1782765110,
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"med_lead_h": 76.2
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0xb0f47416ad54915aea513144d7f3a9429b446fa9",
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"name": "BayStreetBoys",
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"train_win": 70.1,
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"train_conv_roi": 0.118,
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"train_z": 3.45,
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"avg_entry": 0.61,
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"train_n": 288,
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"fwd_win": 65.1,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.089,
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"fwd_n": 232,
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"conv_win": 68.0,
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"conv_won": 348,
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"conv_lost": 164,
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"conv_pnl": 17946,
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"conv30_win": 65.1,
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"conv30_won": 138,
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"conv30_lost": 74,
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"conv30_pnl": 6641,
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"realized_pnl": 878,
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"avg_bet": 324,
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"copy_pnl": 799,
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"held_pnl": 799,
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"held_won": 85,
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"held_lost": 69,
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"sold": 0,
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"last_trade": 1783047785,
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"last_conv_bet": 1783047445,
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"med_lead_h": 154.8
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x2b9fcb585496145add0cbff9995afd72119684da",
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"name": null,
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@@ -119,36 +149,6 @@
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"last_conv_bet": 1782491890,
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"med_lead_h": 24.2
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x4df332e27f9ee3224f52ce30e3ce15c1075e788f",
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"name": "SunlineTicker",
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"train_win": 66.2,
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"train_conv_roi": 0.244,
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"train_z": 3.67,
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"avg_entry": 0.54,
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"train_n": 222,
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"fwd_win": 78.3,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.347,
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"fwd_n": 60,
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"conv_win": 41.1,
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"conv_won": 286,
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"conv_lost": 410,
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"conv_pnl": -590805,
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"conv30_win": 63.1,
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"conv30_won": 53,
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"conv30_lost": 31,
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"conv30_pnl": 90817,
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"realized_pnl": 123249,
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"avg_bet": 5469,
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"copy_pnl": 536,
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"held_pnl": 550,
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"held_won": 47,
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"held_lost": 32,
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"sold": 1,
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"last_trade": 1782995591,
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"last_conv_bet": 1782983375,
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"med_lead_h": 13.4
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0xec1d07e5379072429caa16bf6efeae71a6e4db17",
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"name": null,
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@@ -168,17 +168,47 @@
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"conv30_won": 108,
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"conv30_lost": 47,
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"conv30_pnl": 83,
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"realized_pnl": -125,
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"realized_pnl": -119,
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"avg_bet": 11,
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"copy_pnl": 397,
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"held_pnl": 500,
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"held_won": 74,
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"held_lost": 52,
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"copy_pnl": 708,
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"held_pnl": 810,
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"held_won": 87,
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"held_lost": 58,
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"sold": 20,
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"last_trade": 1782999229,
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"last_trade": 1783000870,
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"last_conv_bet": 1782791450,
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"med_lead_h": 5.1
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867",
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"name": "fortuneking",
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"train_win": 77.3,
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"train_conv_roi": 0.106,
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"train_z": 2.83,
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"avg_entry": 0.7,
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"train_n": 277,
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"fwd_win": 74.5,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.197,
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"fwd_n": 106,
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"conv_win": 76.8,
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"conv_won": 298,
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"conv_lost": 90,
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"conv_pnl": 117754,
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"conv30_win": 75.5,
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"conv30_won": 80,
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"conv30_lost": 26,
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"conv30_pnl": 73711,
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"realized_pnl": 87935,
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"avg_bet": 2808,
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"copy_pnl": 506,
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"held_pnl": 493,
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"held_won": 60,
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"held_lost": 18,
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"sold": 3,
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"last_trade": 1783034486,
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"last_conv_bet": 1782911405,
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"med_lead_h": 155.9
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9",
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"name": "0x5B6e9bce6D8a533017E7f16987C9854C5dA955B9-1759594051953",
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@@ -187,88 +217,28 @@
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"train_z": 4.78,
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"avg_entry": 0.59,
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"train_n": 155,
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"fwd_win": 75.8,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.283,
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"fwd_n": 66,
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"conv_win": 77.0,
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"conv_won": 171,
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"fwd_win": 76.1,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.281,
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"fwd_n": 67,
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"conv_win": 77.1,
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"conv_won": 172,
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"conv_lost": 51,
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"conv_pnl": 177,
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"conv30_win": 75.0,
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"conv30_won": 45,
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"conv_pnl": 178,
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"conv30_win": 75.4,
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"conv30_won": 46,
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"conv30_lost": 15,
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"conv30_pnl": 58,
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"realized_pnl": -30,
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"conv30_pnl": 59,
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"realized_pnl": -25,
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"avg_bet": 4,
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"copy_pnl": 288,
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"held_pnl": 121,
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"copy_pnl": 339,
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"held_pnl": 171,
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"held_won": 28,
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"held_lost": 7,
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"sold": 49,
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"last_trade": 1782999302,
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"held_lost": 6,
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"sold": 50,
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"last_trade": 1783018414,
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"last_conv_bet": 1782999302,
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"med_lead_h": 4.1
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867",
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"name": "fortuneking",
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"train_win": 77.2,
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"train_conv_roi": 0.106,
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"train_z": 2.82,
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"avg_entry": 0.7,
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"train_n": 276,
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"fwd_win": 74.5,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.197,
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"fwd_n": 106,
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"conv_win": 76.7,
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"conv_won": 297,
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"conv_lost": 90,
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"conv_pnl": 117695,
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"conv30_win": 75.2,
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"conv30_won": 79,
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"conv30_lost": 26,
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"conv30_pnl": 73652,
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"realized_pnl": 87883,
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"avg_bet": 2812,
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"copy_pnl": 272,
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"held_pnl": 260,
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"held_won": 57,
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"held_lost": 18,
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"sold": 3,
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"last_trade": 1782999214,
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"last_conv_bet": 1782911405,
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"med_lead_h": 155.9
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x1fb7053bb490c6ec05a78fe2ed383af48526fb66",
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"name": "0x1FB7053bB490c6eC05A78FE2ed383AF48526FB66-1760766256286",
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"train_win": 71.5,
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"train_conv_roi": 0.172,
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"train_z": 2.9,
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"avg_entry": 0.6,
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"train_n": 123,
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"fwd_win": 61.3,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.112,
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"fwd_n": 31,
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"conv_win": 69.3,
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"conv_won": 106,
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"conv_lost": 47,
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"conv_pnl": 48346,
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"conv30_win": 61.3,
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"conv30_won": 19,
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"conv30_lost": 12,
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"conv30_pnl": 8291,
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"realized_pnl": 40706,
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"avg_bet": 1490,
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"copy_pnl": 236,
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"held_pnl": 244,
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"held_won": 7,
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"held_lost": 2,
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"sold": 7,
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"last_trade": 1782935641,
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"last_conv_bet": 1782935641,
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"med_lead_h": 155.0
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x9e00f6a0e927146bac5f2cb6c29a32d8dcb9be98",
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"name": "0x9e00f6A0E927146bAc5f2Cb6C29a32D8dCB9bE98-1773661006098",
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@@ -280,25 +250,55 @@
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"fwd_win": 66.0,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.296,
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"fwd_n": 47,
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"conv_win": 70.0,
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"conv_won": 166,
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"conv_lost": 71,
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"conv_win": 69.5,
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"conv_won": 169,
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"conv_lost": 74,
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"conv_pnl": 190,
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"conv30_win": 67.4,
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"conv30_won": 29,
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"conv30_lost": 14,
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"conv30_pnl": 36,
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"realized_pnl": 40,
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"conv30_win": 65.3,
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"conv30_won": 32,
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"conv30_lost": 17,
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"conv30_pnl": 35,
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"realized_pnl": 34,
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"avg_bet": 2,
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"copy_pnl": 184,
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"held_pnl": 224,
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"held_won": 15,
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"held_lost": 9,
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"sold": 24,
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"last_trade": 1782985621,
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"last_conv_bet": 1782983395,
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"copy_pnl": 166,
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"held_pnl": 281,
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"held_won": 18,
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"held_lost": 11,
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"sold": 26,
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"last_trade": 1783022059,
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"last_conv_bet": 1783017071,
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"med_lead_h": null
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x1fb7053bb490c6ec05a78fe2ed383af48526fb66",
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"name": "0x1FB7053bB490c6eC05A78FE2ed383AF48526FB66-1760766256286",
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"train_win": 71.3,
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"train_conv_roi": 0.172,
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"train_z": 2.87,
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"avg_entry": 0.59,
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"train_n": 122,
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"fwd_win": 61.3,
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"fwd_conv_roi": 0.112,
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"fwd_n": 31,
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"conv_win": 69.5,
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"conv_won": 107,
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"conv_lost": 47,
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"conv_pnl": 49568,
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"conv30_win": 62.5,
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"conv30_won": 20,
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"conv30_lost": 12,
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"conv30_pnl": 9512,
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"realized_pnl": 41862,
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"avg_bet": 1487,
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"copy_pnl": 161,
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"held_pnl": 151,
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"held_won": 6,
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"held_lost": 3,
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"sold": 7,
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"last_trade": 1783024223,
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"last_conv_bet": 1783021465,
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"med_lead_h": 155.0
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},
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{
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"wallet": "0x0b9de6c1744db3888814eb09372e12edfd30e80c",
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"name": "TLouis",
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