FINDINGS: 'The fill model is the next scorer' section (A2 chain grade
-$7.54/fill x1344 confirms the surge kill; oracle harness chain grade
vetoes the ledger-positive tiers; virtual-book +26% variance footnote;
the five tandem tests and the makers-on-the-wall through-line).
HANDOFF: snapshot -> 07-23 (7-wallet rev 5, dark flags, Friday agenda
incl #20/#21). READMEs: /test consolidation row, measurement-harness
research row, study statuses + new script inventory.
Archive: value/ (closed 07-19) + its test, ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md,
order_probe v1 -> archive/; replay_out/ gitignored; links repaired.
Tests: all 7 active scripts pass post-move.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
entry_mode=maker (#20): GTC limit at the sharp's own price via
place_limit_order; live bids park in the pending registry with
maker_ttl_s=60 (registry-side cancel — venue GTD needs >=3min); instant
partial crosses cancel their remainder (07-10 invariant). Paper leg: a
paper_maker registry filled from RTDS prints <= bid, expired by heartbeat
sweep into honest misses. maker_stats counters; fills rows tagged maker;
ba_at_signal recorded (taker counterfactual).
exit_mode=hold (#21): _handle_their_sell choke-point returns without
ordering; every ignored sell -> copybot_ignored_exits[.live].jsonl +
state tail (the mirror counterfactual's forward control). Reconcile
logs hold-through once per position (no backstop spam, no EXIT-STUCK
alarms in hold mode).
Dark by default: real configs boot byte-identical banners; all 8 test
scripts pass; flip = one config change at Friday's read per the
pre-registrations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
T2: the maker species is real and distinct — 673 wallets clear the taker
screen's z>=2.5 discipline on the orders_matched stream (~33 expected by
chance), pooled +$5.9M over 47,693 resolved bets in ~6 tape days; only
96/673 overlap the taker informed set, 3/37 watch_sharps. Not copyable by
taking (their edge IS the spread) — follow-ons: inventory-lean signal,
T1 generic maker sim.
T4: print-substrate sibling-sum scan reads 2.8%/1.5% violation minutes but
the top examples expose the artifact (resolution-time dust prints at bids,
not standing offers); persistence p50 1min. Verdict: inconclusive at v0,
needs standing-book data (L2 recording / live paired scanner) — parked
behind the T1 decision.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
54 chain-graded parity+ signals @$100: maker bid at their price fills 93%
within 60s, EV/signal +$17.45 vs taker +$12.86 (+36%) — fee removal +
no pay-up. No adverse-selection asymmetry at the 60s window (winners fill
92% vs losers 94%); mild asymmetry only in patient tails, so 60s-then-
cancel is the shape. Queue-position optimism stated: maker wins while real
priority >~68%; markout re-read stream will refine. Candidate execution
change behind mirror-exactly + pre-registration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Paper pooled +18.6% (n=35, clears hurdle+2pp). Concentration: esports +22.0%
(n=29, 83% of stake) and gkmgkldfmg +33.4% (n=19). Live pooled ~breakeven at
$1-2 stakes (rounding drag, concentrated in the esports cell) — the #14
size-up tension in one table. Slippage by lag: <=3s fills BETTER than their
print (-0.66c mean). Exploratory measurement; cells small; meta-niche
coverage 0% until snapshots accrue (title fallback used).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Bench promotion per the #13 method run early: +17.4%/+33.5% both windows
(n=5), insider z 2.5 (p_luck 0.7%), 64% day-of entries, 1% refunds.
gkmgkldfmg stays per user call. Live mirrors paper exactly.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A TimeoutExpired get leaves a size>0 partial that the exists-check treated
as success, so the console fallback never ran for timeouts; the caller's
parquet read then failed (no magic bytes), deleted the file, and the next
run repeated the identical loop — 8 hours of tape-head stall overnight
2026-07-23. Partials from timeouts are now removed and the fallback runs.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro