PolyWeather Pro

Production weather-intelligence stack for temperature settlement markets.

Official dashboard: polyweather-pro.vercel.app 中文说明: README_ZH.md

Public docs center: /docs/intro on the main site (bilingual product documentation, including intraday signals, TAF, settlement sources, history, and extension).

Product Screenshots

Global Dashboard

City Analysis (Ankara)

Product Status (2026-04-10)

• Subscription live: Pro Monthly 5 USDC.
• Points redemption live: 500 points = 1 USDC, max 3 USDC off.
• Onchain checkout live: Polygon contract checkout (USDC / USDC.e).
• Auto-reconciliation live: event listener + periodic confirm loop.
• Ops dashboard live: /ops for memberships, leaderboard, manual point grants, and payment incident triage.
• Lightweight observability live: /healthz, /api/system/status, /metrics.
• Runtime state, cache, and core offline training/backfill flows now use SQLite as the primary path; legacy JSON/JSONL files remain only for migration, export, and explicit fallback input.
• EMOS/CRPS pipeline is integrated in shadow mode with rollout gating.
• Intraday structural signal is now peak-window aware and bilingual (zh-CN / en-US).
• Non-Hong Kong airport cities now ingest TAF and parse FM / TEMPO / BECMG / PROB30/40.
• Temperature chart now overlays TAF Timing markers near the expected peak window.
• Trade cue now combines upper-air structure, TAF, market crowding, and edge_percent.
• Browser extension now uses DEB for multi-day forecast and stays positioned as a lightweight lead-in to the main site.
• Official nearby-network layer now covers MGM (Turkey), CMA/NMC (Mainland China), JMA AMeDAS (Japan), KMA (Korea), HKO (Hong Kong), and CWA (Taiwan).
• Tokyo now ingests Haneda JMA AMeDAS 10-minute temperature as the official enhancement layer.
• Dashboard prewarm is now supported through a dedicated worker / cron path, with runtime status exposed in /api/system/status and /ops.
• /ops now exposes cache bucket counts, summary cache hit / miss rate, and prewarm runtime heartbeat.
• Intraday commentary can optionally use Groq as a bilingual rewrite layer, while rule-based commentary remains the fallback.
• Vercel frontend guidance now includes cost controls for analytics, eager fetches, and edge-side scanner blocking.

License & Commercial Boundary

This repository is licensed under GNU AGPL-3.0 only from 2026-03-30 onward.

• Public in repo: weather aggregation, core analysis, dashboard, bot baseline, and standard payment flow.
• Not included in this repository: private production data, internal operating thresholds, commercial risk rules, pricing strategy details, and growth tooling.
• Trademark, brand, domain, production databases, and hosted-service operations are not granted by the code license.

See: AGPL-3.0 & Commercial Boundary

Core Capabilities

• Aggregates observations and forecasts for 45 monitored cities.
• Uses DEB (Dynamic Error Balancing) to blend multi-model highs.
• Generates settlement-oriented probability buckets (mu + bucket distribution).
• Maps weather view to Polymarket quotes for mispricing scan.
• Reuses one analysis core across web dashboard and Telegram bot.
• Adds payment audit trails, replay tooling, and incident visibility in ops.
• Adds peak-window-oriented intraday structure cards for surface + upper-air analysis.
• Adds airport-side TAF timing overlays and airport suppression/disruption interpretation for non-Hong Kong airport cities.
• Adds official nearby-network enhancement layers for China, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Turkey without replacing airport settlement anchors.
• Adds optional dashboard prewarm worker so hot cities can be refreshed before user clicks.

Reference Architecture

flowchart LR
    U["Users (Web / Telegram)"] --> FE["Next.js Frontend (Vercel)"]
    U --> BOT["Telegram Bot (VPS)"]
    FE --> API["FastAPI /web/app.py"]
    BOT --> API

    API --> WX["Weather Collector"]
    WX --> METAR["Aviation Weather (METAR)"]
    WX --> TAF["Aviation Weather (TAF)"]
    WX --> MGM["MGM (Turkey station network)"]
    WX --> OM["Open-Meteo"]
    WX --> JMA["JMA AMeDAS (Japan)"]
    WX --> KMA["KMA (Korea)"]
    WX --> HKO["HKO / CWA / NOAA / Official settlement sources"]

    API --> ANA["DEB + Trend + Probability + Market Scan"]
    ANA --> PAY["Payment State (Intent + Event + Confirm Loop)"]
    ANA --> PM["Polymarket Read-only Layer"]
    ANA --> LLM["Optional Groq Commentary Rewrite"]
    API --> PREWARM["Dashboard Prewarm API / Worker"]

Monitored Cities (45)

• Europe / Middle East: Ankara, Istanbul, Moscow, London, Paris, Munich, Milan, Warsaw, Madrid, Tel Aviv, Amsterdam, Helsinki
• APAC: Seoul, Busan, Hong Kong, Lau Fau Shan, Taipei, Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Singapore, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Wellington
• Americas: Toronto, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Austin, Houston, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, Atlanta, Seattle, Mexico City, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo, Panama City
• South Asia: Lucknow

Quick Start

Backend + Bot (Docker)

docker compose up -d --build

Frontend (local)

cd frontend
npm ci
npm run dev

Recent Highlights

• Taipei settlement is aligned to Wunderground RCSS with whole-degree Celsius resolution logic.
• Shenzhen settlement is aligned to Wunderground ZGSZ.
• Hong Kong keeps HKO official readings in dashboard and history, without falling back to airport METAR lines.
• Intraday analysis now separates:
  • Surface Structure
  • Upper-Air Structure
  • Trade cue
• TAF is used as an airport-side confirmation layer, not as the main temperature model.
• Browser extension remains a lightweight monitoring + basic-bias product, while the site holds the full analysis experience.

Runtime Data (Recommended on VPS)

Use external runtime storage to avoid SQLite/git conflicts:

POLYWEATHER_RUNTIME_DATA_DIR=/var/lib/polyweather
POLYWEATHER_DB_PATH=/var/lib/polyweather/polyweather.db
POLYWEATHER_STATE_STORAGE_MODE=sqlite

Ops Verification

Health / system status / metrics

curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/healthz
curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/system/status
curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/metrics

Dashboard prewarm worker

docker compose --profile workers up -d polyweather_prewarm
curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/system/status

Check:

• prewarm.thread_alive
• prewarm.runtime.cycle_count
• cache.analysis.hit_rate
• cache.open_meteo_forecast_entries

Frontend cache headers

./scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh "https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app"

Payment auto-reconciliation logs

docker compose logs -f polyweather | egrep "payment event loop started|payment confirm loop started|payment auto-confirmed"

Payment runtime

curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/payments/runtime

Wallet activity logs

docker compose logs -f polyweather | egrep "polymarket wallet activity watcher started|wallet activity pushed"

Telegram Commands

Command	Purpose
/city <name>	City real-time analysis
/deb <name>	DEB historical reconciliation
/top	User leaderboard
/id	Show current chat ID
/diag	Startup diagnostics
/help	Help and usage

Documentation Index

• Chinese overview: README_ZH.md
• Chinese API guide: docs/API_ZH.md
• TAF signal guide (ZH): docs/TAF_SIGNAL_ZH.md
• Commercialization: docs/COMMERCIALIZATION.md
• AGPL-3.0 policy: docs/OPEN_CORE_POLICY.md
• Supabase setup (ZH): docs/SUPABASE_SETUP_ZH.md
• Configuration & secrets (ZH): docs/CONFIGURATION_ZH.md
• LightGBM daily-high model (ZH): docs/LGBM_DAILY_HIGH_ZH.md
• Frontend deployment (ZH): docs/FRONTEND_DEPLOYMENT_ZH.md
• Tech debt (EN): docs/TECH_DEBT.md
• Tech debt (ZH): docs/TECH_DEBT_ZH.md
• Payment verification: docs/payments/POLYGONSCAN_VERIFY.md
• Payment audit: docs/payments/PAYMENT_AUDIT_ZH.md
• Payment V2 upgrade: docs/payments/PAYMENT_UPGRADE_V2_ZH.md
• Ops admin guide: docs/OPS_ADMIN_ZH.md
• Deep research report: docs/deep-research-report.md
• Frontend report: FRONTEND_REDESIGN_REPORT.md
• Release process: RELEASE.md
• Changelog: CHANGELOG.md

Version

• Version: v1.5.3
• Last Updated: 2026-04-10