Fix history fallback handling and auth status probe behavior

scripts/build_probability_shadow_report.py

@@ -9,9 +9,11 @@ PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
 if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path:
     sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT)
 
-from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history  # noqa: E402
 from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement  # noqa: E402
-from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import _default_history_arg  # noqa: E402
+from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import (  # noqa: E402
+    _default_history_arg,
+    _load_history_with_fallback,
+)
 
 
 def _sf(value):
@@ -126,7 +128,7 @@ def main():
     )
     args = parser.parse_args()
 
-    history = load_history(args.history_file)
+    history = _load_history_with_fallback(args.history_file)
     overall = _blank_metrics()
     by_city = defaultdict(_blank_metrics)
     by_date = defaultdict(_blank_metrics)

scripts/fit_probability_calibration.py

@@ -72,10 +72,10 @@ def _load_history_with_fallback(path):
         if get_state_storage_mode() == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE:
             return DailyRecordRepository().load_all()
         return {}
-    data = load_history(path)
+    data = _load_json_if_exists(path)
     if data:
         return data
-    return _load_json_if_exists(path)
+    return load_history(path)
 
 
 def _load_truth_history():

src/models/lgbm_features.py

@@ -296,7 +296,10 @@ def build_training_samples(
         runtime_history = DailyRecordRepository().load_all()
     else:
         runtime_history = load_history(_history_file_path())
-    if mode == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE:
+    if isinstance(history_data, dict):
+        truth_history = runtime_history
+        training_feature_history = {}
+    elif mode == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE:
         truth_history = TruthRecordRepository().load_all()
         training_feature_history = TrainingFeatureRecordRepository().load_all()
     else:

tests/test_web_observability.py

@@ -134,7 +134,7 @@ def test_payment_runtime_endpoint_returns_shape():
     assert 'recent_audit_events' in payload
 
 
-def test_auth_me_auto_reconciles_missing_subscription(monkeypatch):
+def test_auth_me_does_not_reconcile_on_status_probe(monkeypatch):
     monkeypatch.setattr(routes, "_assert_entitlement", lambda request: None)
 
     def _bind_identity(request):
@@ -147,11 +147,10 @@ def test_auth_me_auto_reconciles_missing_subscription(monkeypatch):
     monkeypatch.setattr(routes.SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT, "enabled", True)
 
     calls = {"count": 0}
+    reconcile_calls = {"count": 0}
 
     def _latest_subscription(user_id, respect_requirement=False):
         calls["count"] += 1
-        if calls["count"] == 1:
-            return None
         return {
             "plan_code": "pro_monthly",
             "starts_at": "2026-03-22T00:00:00+00:00",
@@ -164,10 +163,15 @@ def test_auth_me_auto_reconciles_missing_subscription(monkeypatch):
         _latest_subscription,
     )
     monkeypatch.setattr(routes.PAYMENT_CHECKOUT, "enabled", True)
+
+    def _reconcile_latest_intent(user_id):
+        reconcile_calls["count"] += 1
+        return {"ok": True, "action": "reconciled_confirmed_intent"}
+
     monkeypatch.setattr(
         routes.PAYMENT_CHECKOUT,
         "reconcile_latest_intent",
-        lambda user_id: {"ok": True, "action": "reconciled_confirmed_intent"},
+        _reconcile_latest_intent,
     )
 
     response = client.get("/api/auth/me")
@@ -176,6 +180,7 @@ def test_auth_me_auto_reconciles_missing_subscription(monkeypatch):
     payload = response.json()
     assert payload["subscription_active"] is True
     assert payload["subscription_plan_code"] == "pro_monthly"
+    assert reconcile_calls["count"] == 0
 
 
 def test_ops_memberships_prefers_supabase_auth_email(monkeypatch):