docs: add Shock Score, MAE sigma floor, DEB bias analysis to both READMEs
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2569718930@qq.com
@@ -24,17 +24,25 @@ The system automatically tracks the historical performance of weather models (EC
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### 2. 🎲 Math Probability Engine (Settlement Probability)
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Automatically computes the probability for each possible WU settlement integer using a Gaussian distribution fitted to the ensemble forecast:
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Automatically computes the probability for each possible WU settlement integer using a Gaussian distribution:
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- **Distribution Center μ**: Weighted average of DEB/multi-model median (70%) and ensemble median (30%). Auto-corrects upward when actual METAR max exceeds μ and is still rising.
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- **Standard Deviation σ**: Derived from the 51-member ensemble P10/P90 (σ = (P90-P10) / 2.56).
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- **Time Decay**: σ dynamically narrows based on the current time relative to the predicted peak window:
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- Before peak: σ × 1.0 (maximum uncertainty)
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- During peak window: σ × 0.7 (settling)
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- After peak: σ × 0.3 (outcome mostly determined)
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- **Observed Floor**: Temperatures below the current METAR max WU value are automatically excluded (can't go back down).
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- **Interval Integration**: Integrates over each WU rounding interval [N-0.5, N+0.5) to compute the probability of settling at integer N.
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- **Display**: `🎲 Settlement Probability (μ=3.7): 4°C [3.5~4.5) 68% | 3°C [2.5~3.5) 32%`
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- **Distribution Center μ**: Weighted average of DEB/multi-model median (70%) and ensemble median (30%). Auto-corrects upward when METAR max exceeds μ.
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- **Standard Deviation σ — Three-Layer Pipeline**:
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1. **Ensemble Base**: σ = (P90-P10) / 2.56
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2. **MAE Floor**: Uses DEB’s historical MAE as σ minimum—prevents ensembles from underestimating true uncertainty
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3. **Shock Score Amplifier**: σ × (1 + 0.5 × shock_score) when weather is changing rapidly
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- **Time Decay**: Before peak σ×1.0 → During peak σ×0.7 → After peak σ×0.3
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- **Observed Floor**: Temperatures below the current METAR max WU value are excluded
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#### 💥 Shock Score: Weather Disruption Soft Scorer (0~1)
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Evaluates environmental stability from the last 4 METAR observations. Higher = more unstable = wider σ:
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| Component | Weight | Trigger |
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| :-------------------- | :----- | :---------------------------------------------------------------- |
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| Wind Direction Change | 0~0.4 | Angle difference × wind speed amplifier (weak winds downweighted) |
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| Cloud Cover Jump | 0~0.35 | Cloud code escalation (FEW→BKN, etc.) |
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| Pressure Change | 0~0.25 | >2hPa change within 2 hours |
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### 3. 🤖 AI Deep Analysis (Groq LLaMA 3.3 70B)
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@@ -91,12 +99,12 @@ chmod +x ~/update.sh
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## 🕹️ Bot Commands
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| Command | Description |
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| :------------------ | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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| `/city [city_name]` | Get weather analysis, settlement probabilities, METAR tracking, and AI insights. |
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| `/deb [city_name]` | View DEB blended forecast accuracy (WU hit rate, MAE) and model comparison. |
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| `/id` | View the Chat ID of the current conversation. |
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| `/help` | Display help information. |
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| Command | Description |
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| :------------------ | :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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| `/city [city_name]` | Get weather analysis, settlement probabilities, METAR tracking, and AI insights. |
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| `/deb [city_name]` | View DEB accuracy: daily hit/miss breakdown, bias analysis (underestimate/overestimate), model MAE comparison, trading suggestions. |
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| `/id` | View the Chat ID of the current conversation. |
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| `/help` | Display help information. |
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### Supported Cities
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@@ -123,6 +131,8 @@ graph TD
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DEB --> DB[(daily_records Database)]
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Peak --> Prob[Gaussian Probability Engine]
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Collector --> Prob
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METAR --> Shock[Shock Score]
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Shock --> Prob
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Collector --> Logic[Settlement Boundary / Trend Analysis]
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end
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+26
-16
@@ -26,15 +26,23 @@ PolyWeather 是一款专为 **Polymarket** 等预测市场打造的天气分析
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基于集合预报的正态分布拟合，自动计算每个 WU 结算整数温度的概率：
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- **分布中心 μ**：以 DEB/多模型中位数（70% 权重）和集合中位数（30%）的加权均值为中心。当实测最高温已超过 μ 且仍在升温时，自动向上修正。
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- **标准差 σ**：由 51 成员集合预报的 P10/P90 反推（σ = (P90-P10) / 2.56）。
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- **时间衰减**：σ 会根据当前时间与预计最热时段的关系动态收窄：
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- 峰值前：σ × 1.0（最大不确定性）
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- 峰值窗口内：σ × 0.7（正在定型）
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- 峰值后：σ × 0.3（大局已定）
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- **实测过滤**：已实测到的最高温对应 WU 值以下的候选温度自动排除（不可能回退）。
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- **区间积分**：对每个 WU 取整区间 [N-0.5, N+0.5) 做正态积分，得到结算落入该整数的概率。
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- **展示格式**：`🎲 结算概率 (μ=3.7)：4°C [3.5~4.5) 68% | 3°C [2.5~3.5) 32%`
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- **分布中心 μ**：以 DEB/多模型中位数（70%）和集合中位数（30%）的加权均值为中心。实测超过 μ 时自动上修。
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- **标准差 σ 三层修正管线**：
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1. **集合基础**：σ = (P90-P10) / 2.56
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2. **MAE 兆底**：用 DEB 历史 MAE 作为 σ 下限——防止集合预报低估真实不确定性
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3. **Shock Score 放宽**：σ × (1 + 0.5 × shock_score)，气象突变时自动加宽
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- **时间衰减**：峰值前 σ×1.0 → 峰值窗口 σ×0.7 → 峰值后 σ×0.3
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- **实测过滤**：已实测 WU 值以下的候选自动排除
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#### 💥 Shock Score：气象突变软评分 (0~1)
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用近 4 条 METAR 报文的风向/云量/气压变化评估环境稳定性，越高 = 越不稳定 = σ 放宽：
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| 分项 | 权重 | 触发条件 |
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| :------- | :----- | :------------------------------------ |
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| 风向变化 | 0~0.4 | 角度差 × 风速放大系数（弱风降权避噪） |
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| 云量阶跃 | 0~0.35 | FEW→BKN 等云码跳变 |
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| 气压变化 | 0~0.25 | 2h 内气压差 > 2hPa |
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### 3. 🤖 AI 深度分析 (Groq LLaMA 3.3 70B)
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@@ -91,12 +99,12 @@ chmod +x ~/update.sh
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## 🕹️ 机器人指令
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| 指令 | 说明 |
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| :--------------- | :---------------------------------------------------------- |
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| `/city [城市名]` | 获取深度气象分析、结算概率、实测追踪及 AI 决策建议。 |
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| `/deb [城市名]` | 查看 DEB 融合预测的历史准确率（WU 命中率、MAE）和模型对比。 |
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| `/id` | 查看当前对话的 Chat ID。 |
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| `/help` | 显示说明信息。 |
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| 指令 | 说明 |
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| :--------------- | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
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| `/city [城市名]` | 获取深度气象分析、结算概率、实测追踪及 AI 决策建议。 |
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| `/deb [城市名]` | 查看 DEB 准确率：逐日命中明细、偏差分析（低估/高估）、模型 MAE 对比、交易建议。 |
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| `/id` | 查看当前对话的 Chat ID。 |
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| `/help` | 显示说明信息。 |
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### 支持城市示例
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@@ -120,9 +128,11 @@ graph TD
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subgraph 算法层
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Collector --> Peak[峰值时段预测]
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Collector --> DEB[DEB 动态权重融合]
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DEB --> DB[(daily_records 数据库)]
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DEB --> DB[(每日记录数据库)]
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Peak --> Prob[正态分布概率引擎]
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Collector --> Prob
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METAR --> Shock[Shock Score 突变评分]
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Shock --> Prob
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Collector --> Logic[结算边界 / 趋势分析]
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end
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