diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 6bd793cc..5e39e979 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -24,17 +24,25 @@ The system automatically tracks the historical performance of weather models (EC ### 2. 🎲 Math Probability Engine (Settlement Probability) -Automatically computes the probability for each possible WU settlement integer using a Gaussian distribution fitted to the ensemble forecast: +Automatically computes the probability for each possible WU settlement integer using a Gaussian distribution: -- **Distribution Center μ**: Weighted average of DEB/multi-model median (70%) and ensemble median (30%). Auto-corrects upward when actual METAR max exceeds μ and is still rising. -- **Standard Deviation σ**: Derived from the 51-member ensemble P10/P90 (σ = (P90-P10) / 2.56). -- **Time Decay**: σ dynamically narrows based on the current time relative to the predicted peak window: - - Before peak: σ × 1.0 (maximum uncertainty) - - During peak window: σ × 0.7 (settling) - - After peak: σ × 0.3 (outcome mostly determined) -- **Observed Floor**: Temperatures below the current METAR max WU value are automatically excluded (can't go back down). -- **Interval Integration**: Integrates over each WU rounding interval [N-0.5, N+0.5) to compute the probability of settling at integer N. -- **Display**: `🎲 Settlement Probability (μ=3.7): 4°C [3.5~4.5) 68% | 3°C [2.5~3.5) 32%` +- **Distribution Center μ**: Weighted average of DEB/multi-model median (70%) and ensemble median (30%). Auto-corrects upward when METAR max exceeds μ. +- **Standard Deviation σ — Three-Layer Pipeline**: + 1. **Ensemble Base**: σ = (P90-P10) / 2.56 + 2. **MAE Floor**: Uses DEB’s historical MAE as σ minimum—prevents ensembles from underestimating true uncertainty + 3. **Shock Score Amplifier**: σ × (1 + 0.5 × shock_score) when weather is changing rapidly +- **Time Decay**: Before peak σ×1.0 → During peak σ×0.7 → After peak σ×0.3 +- **Observed Floor**: Temperatures below the current METAR max WU value are excluded + +#### 💥 Shock Score: Weather Disruption Soft Scorer (0~1) + +Evaluates environmental stability from the last 4 METAR observations. Higher = more unstable = wider σ: + +| Component | Weight | Trigger | +| :-------------------- | :----- | :---------------------------------------------------------------- | +| Wind Direction Change | 0~0.4 | Angle difference × wind speed amplifier (weak winds downweighted) | +| Cloud Cover Jump | 0~0.35 | Cloud code escalation (FEW→BKN, etc.) | +| Pressure Change | 0~0.25 | >2hPa change within 2 hours | ### 3. 🤖 AI Deep Analysis (Groq LLaMA 3.3 70B) @@ -91,12 +99,12 @@ chmod +x ~/update.sh ## 🕹️ Bot Commands -| Command | Description | -| :------------------ | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -| `/city [city_name]` | Get weather analysis, settlement probabilities, METAR tracking, and AI insights. | -| `/deb [city_name]` | View DEB blended forecast accuracy (WU hit rate, MAE) and model comparison. | -| `/id` | View the Chat ID of the current conversation. | -| `/help` | Display help information. | +| Command | Description | +| :------------------ | :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | +| `/city [city_name]` | Get weather analysis, settlement probabilities, METAR tracking, and AI insights. | +| `/deb [city_name]` | View DEB accuracy: daily hit/miss breakdown, bias analysis (underestimate/overestimate), model MAE comparison, trading suggestions. | +| `/id` | View the Chat ID of the current conversation. | +| `/help` | Display help information. | ### Supported Cities @@ -123,6 +131,8 @@ graph TD DEB --> DB[(daily_records Database)] Peak --> Prob[Gaussian Probability Engine] Collector --> Prob + METAR --> Shock[Shock Score] + Shock --> Prob Collector --> Logic[Settlement Boundary / Trend Analysis] end diff --git a/README_ZH.md b/README_ZH.md index 9482c165..f4f760ad 100644 --- a/README_ZH.md +++ b/README_ZH.md @@ -26,15 +26,23 @@ PolyWeather 是一款专为 **Polymarket** 等预测市场打造的天气分析 基于集合预报的正态分布拟合，自动计算每个 WU 结算整数温度的概率： -- **分布中心 μ**：以 DEB/多模型中位数（70% 权重）和集合中位数（30%）的加权均值为中心。当实测最高温已超过 μ 且仍在升温时，自动向上修正。 -- **标准差 σ**：由 51 成员集合预报的 P10/P90 反推（σ = (P90-P10) / 2.56）。 -- **时间衰减**：σ 会根据当前时间与预计最热时段的关系动态收窄： - - 峰值前：σ × 1.0（最大不确定性） - - 峰值窗口内：σ × 0.7（正在定型） - - 峰值后：σ × 0.3（大局已定） -- **实测过滤**：已实测到的最高温对应 WU 值以下的候选温度自动排除（不可能回退）。 -- **区间积分**：对每个 WU 取整区间 [N-0.5, N+0.5) 做正态积分，得到结算落入该整数的概率。 -- **展示格式**：`🎲 结算概率 (μ=3.7)：4°C [3.5~4.5) 68% | 3°C [2.5~3.5) 32%` +- **分布中心 μ**：以 DEB/多模型中位数（70%）和集合中位数（30%）的加权均值为中心。实测超过 μ 时自动上修。 +- **标准差 σ 三层修正管线**： + 1. **集合基础**：σ = (P90-P10) / 2.56 + 2. **MAE 兆底**：用 DEB 历史 MAE 作为 σ 下限——防止集合预报低估真实不确定性 + 3. **Shock Score 放宽**：σ × (1 + 0.5 × shock_score)，气象突变时自动加宽 +- **时间衰减**：峰值前 σ×1.0 → 峰值窗口 σ×0.7 → 峰值后 σ×0.3 +- **实测过滤**：已实测 WU 值以下的候选自动排除 + +#### 💥 Shock Score：气象突变软评分 (0~1) + +用近 4 条 METAR 报文的风向/云量/气压变化评估环境稳定性，越高 = 越不稳定 = σ 放宽： + +| 分项 | 权重 | 触发条件 | +| :------- | :----- | :------------------------------------ | +| 风向变化 | 0~0.4 | 角度差 × 风速放大系数（弱风降权避噪） | +| 云量阶跃 | 0~0.35 | FEW→BKN 等云码跳变 | +| 气压变化 | 0~0.25 | 2h 内气压差 > 2hPa | ### 3. 🤖 AI 深度分析 (Groq LLaMA 3.3 70B) @@ -91,12 +99,12 @@ chmod +x ~/update.sh ## 🕹️ 机器人指令 -| 指令 | 说明 | -| :--------------- | :---------------------------------------------------------- | -| `/city [城市名]` | 获取深度气象分析、结算概率、实测追踪及 AI 决策建议。 | -| `/deb [城市名]` | 查看 DEB 融合预测的历史准确率（WU 命中率、MAE）和模型对比。 | -| `/id` | 查看当前对话的 Chat ID。 | -| `/help` | 显示说明信息。 | +| 指令 | 说明 | +| :--------------- | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | +| `/city [城市名]` | 获取深度气象分析、结算概率、实测追踪及 AI 决策建议。 | +| `/deb [城市名]` | 查看 DEB 准确率：逐日命中明细、偏差分析（低估/高估）、模型 MAE 对比、交易建议。 | +| `/id` | 查看当前对话的 Chat ID。 | +| `/help` | 显示说明信息。 | ### 支持城市示例 @@ -120,9 +128,11 @@ graph TD subgraph 算法层 Collector --> Peak[峰值时段预测] Collector --> DEB[DEB 动态权重融合] - DEB --> DB[(daily_records 数据库)] + DEB --> DB[(每日记录数据库)] Peak --> Prob[正态分布概率引擎] Collector --> Prob + METAR --> Shock[Shock Score 突变评分] + Shock --> Prob Collector --> Logic[结算边界 / 趋势分析] end