mirror of
https://github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git
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jaxperro
972b32e8f0
_handle_their_buy referenced their_prev in the fresh-OPEN branch but only assigned it in the is_add branch — every new position crashed with UnboundLocalError the moment the their-bet ceiling landed 2026-07-06. The webhook/heartbeat try/except swallowed it as 'handler error', so the bot logged FOLLOW then silently placed NOTHING (last real fill 07-05 23:17; live Fly logs show FOLLOW ArbTrader ... -> heartbeat error: their_prev). This is the primary cause of 'live bot missing bets'. Fix: hoist their_prev above the if/else so both branches see the signal's prior position. Also (the user's two asks): - copybot on_wallet_activity: a QUALIFYING bet we were too slow to catch (webhook missed / bot down / fast market resolved before we polled) is now recorded as a missed bet 'too slow to follow (Nm late)' instead of silently dropped; below-floor dust stays console-only. Filter runs before the stale gate so we know if it would have qualified. - sync_floors.py rewritten: PIN each paper-bot wallet's floor to the trusted cache p80 (identical to the backtest's conv_thr), written to copybot.paper.json, wired into daily.sh + committed. Kills the boot-time data-api floor drift (fortuneking $1,498 boot vs $892 backtest) that made the live bot filter out bets the backtest kept. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
75 lines
2.8 KiB
Python
75 lines
2.8 KiB
Python
#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""Pin the live paper bot's per-wallet conviction floors to the backtest's.
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PARITY FIX (2026-07-07): the bot used to derive floors AT BOOT from the
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data-api's most recent ~500 positions (copybot.derive_floor). The backtest
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(portfolio.py) uses the TRUSTED cache p80 over ~180 days. When a wallet's
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recent bets ran bigger than its long-term norm the two diverged hard —
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fortuneking's boot floor hit $1,498 vs the backtest's $892, so the live bot
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silently filtered out conviction bets the backtest counted (and the floor
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drifted every restart). This writes the backtest's floor as a PINNED
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`floor` on every wallet in copybot.paper.json, so both books gate on the
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same threshold and boots are deterministic.
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Uses the exact backtest method: trusted_wallet_rows (trust.py) deduped to
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one row per market (largest stake), then cache.conv_cutoff (p80). Wired into
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daily.sh after portfolio.py (cache warm, floors match that run); the publish
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step commits copybot.paper.json so the next bot restart picks them up.
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python3 sync_floors.py # writes live/copybot.paper.json floors
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"""
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import json
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import os
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import sys
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import time
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sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
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import cache # noqa: E402
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import trust # noqa: E402
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HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
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PAPER = os.path.join(HERE, "copybot.paper.json")
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def trusted_p80(wallet, now=None):
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"""The wallet's conviction floor = p80 of its TRUSTED bet stakes, one row
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per market (largest stake) — identical to portfolio.py's conv_thr."""
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now = int(now or time.time())
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rows = trust.trusted_wallet_rows(cache.query, wallet, now)
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best = {}
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for cond, asset, won, p, res_t, size in rows:
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if cond not in best or size > best[cond]:
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best[cond] = size
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return cache.conv_cutoff(best.values())
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def main():
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cfg = json.load(open(PAPER))
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ws = cfg.get("wallets") or []
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if not ws:
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print("[floors] copybot.paper.json has no wallets — nothing to do")
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return
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trust.ensure_cons(cache.query)
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now = int(time.time())
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changed = []
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for w in ws:
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p80 = trusted_p80(w["wallet"], now)
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if p80 == float("inf"):
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continue # no trusted sized bets — leave as-is
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new = round(p80, 2)
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old = w.get("floor")
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w["floor"] = new
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if old is None or abs((old or 0) - new) > 0.5:
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changed.append((w.get("name", w["wallet"][:8]), old, new))
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tmp = PAPER + ".tmp"
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json.dump(cfg, open(tmp, "w"), indent=2)
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os.replace(tmp, PAPER)
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print(f"[floors] pinned {len(ws)} trusted-p80 floors to copybot.paper.json"
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+ (f"; changed: " + ", ".join(f"{n} {o}→{v:g}" for n, o, v in changed)
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if changed else " (no material change)"))
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main()
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