jaxperro c18de39b71 research: set-replay harness — sweep wallet-set compositions over the tape ...

Replays candidate sets through the engine's mirrored mechanics (stake rule
+ DD halving + their-shares ceiling + one-market-one-stake adds + all-or-
nothing cash gate + proportional sell mirror, copytrade.py cited) with the
calibrated sim fill model and tape proxy-resolution. Per-wallet conviction
floors from the paper config's pinned p80s (candidates without pins get
tape-p80, same rule). Outputs per-set×bankroll: realized/open, deployment
stats, miss families (capital/crater/band), capital-miss hypothetical P&L,
per-wallet realized, and --loo leave-one-out marginals at $1k.

Validated against the real paper book on the same window: 33 replay opens
vs 26 real (backfill bias documented — pre-tape positions' adds replay as
opens), capital misses 0 vs 0, peak deploy 62% vs the era's 74%, mean
deployed $297 vs ~$360. SEARCH TOOL ONLY per the silo README — verdicts
stay with forward_ledger.jsonl.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-07-21 12:54:35 -04:00

..

replay_sets.json

research: set-replay harness — sweep wallet-set compositions over the tape

2026-07-21 12:54:35 -04:00

requote_timing.json

research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2, #16, #17)

2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00

sim_calibration.json

research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2, #16, #17)

2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00

study_flow_robustness.json

research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2, #16, #17)

2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00

study_flow.json

research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2, #16, #17)

2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00

study_oracle.json

research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2, #16, #17)

2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00