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2026-07-23 23:57:31 +00:00
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HANDOFF: offline pause — launchd agents unloaded, resume checklist
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 19:30:52 -04:00
bfd725621d
#24 v0: three-book reconciliation — backtest story is 82-112% unseen+missed; +312% is decoration, rankings only
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 19:15:00 -04:00
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2026-07-23 23:08:10 +00:00
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companion missed rows carry entry price
2026-07-23 19:07:21 -04:00
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2026-07-23 23:05:35 +00:00
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2026-07-23 23:03:33 +00:00
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full missed-row companion feeds (portfolio[_follow]_missed.json): wallet-card would-be totals now reconstructable row-by-row in the dash modal
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 19:01:17 -04:00
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HANDOFF: two backtest books + bank-sweep capture finding
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 18:52:35 -04:00
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follow-only backtest book (--follow-only -> portfolio_follow.json, daily-wired): followed-7 replay +312% vs +41% bench — bench crowding was starving the follow set
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 18:49:37 -04:00
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2026-07-23 22:41:31 +00:00
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HANDOFF: band-guarded mirror supersedes pure hold ( #21 )
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 18:39:19 -04:00
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backtest book regenerated under band-guarded mirror (sells >=90c)
2026-07-23 18:37:56 -04:00
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2026-07-23 22:35:26 +00:00
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2026-07-23 22:34:54 +00:00
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band-guarded mirror exits ( #21 successor): mirror sells >=90c only, sub-band sells ignored+ledgered; sell-band study slice; backtest parity
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Sell-band evidence: every band <90c LOSES by mirroring (<30c +$79/sell
given up, 50-70c +$7.29); >=90c SAVES (-$0.85/sell, n=68).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 18:34:20 -04:00
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2026-07-23 22:30:30 +00:00
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docs: batch-three findings (T11 TTL optimal, T12 no exit rule, T14 imbalance band, T15 churn) + backtest paper-parity + Profitable bench
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 18:26:59 -04:00
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T12 verdict: STAY +$5.95/unwind (n=265) — maker-sharp unwinds are not exit signals; Study C keeps no exit rule; concentration caveat stated
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 18:23:04 -04:00
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backtest book regenerated under maker/hold parity
2026-07-23 18:21:40 -04:00
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2026-07-23 22:19:18 +00:00
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2026-07-23 22:16:32 +00:00
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T12 + T15 scripts (runs in flight; verdict headers follow with results)
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 18:14:07 -04:00
004911bba3
backtest execution follows the paper bot's follow flags (#20/#21 parity): maker entries at the sharp's price, hold-through exits; sold-unresolved carry as open at exit print
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 18:09:11 -04:00
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T14: depth structure as fill filter — balanced-book band (imb .25-.47) is the one cross-harness structure; extremes adverse both ways; slope quartiles = tie artifact; l1_frac inconsistent
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 17:51:07 -04:00
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2026-07-23 21:37:10 +00:00
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T11: maker-entry patience curve — 60s TTL already optimal; patience past 60s harvests adverse selection (loser fill-rate 100% at 5m+)
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 17:25:49 -04:00
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docs: lock in Study C #22 + Study D #23 state (wwf-lagbot deployed, shakedown findings, batch-two verdicts)
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 17:09:09 -04:00
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T9 Stage-2: wwf-lagbot lead-lag paper harness (Study D #23 ) + nightly chain grading
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-23 16:54:53 -04:00
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