The feed's missed[] is a 60-row window of 1,388 — cards need lifetime
numbers server-side (same lesson as the copybot dash's wallet_pnl).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
THE SCORER BUG (found 2026-07-22 by the surge paper book divergence):
tape-resolution timing is win-biased. When our side LOSES, the winning
sibling keeps trading at 99c until close, the sibling-veto keeps the
market 'alive', and the loss sits in the ignored pending bucket — while
wins tape-resolve within hours and score. Jul-21 audit: tape-resolved
fills 81% hit (+$46/fill); chain-resolving the 329 'pending' fills: 26%
hit, -$49.61/fill; combined truth 53% ≈ the paper book's 57.5%. The
paper harness was the honest instrument; every ledger arm was flattered.
payouts_for(): tape proxy first, CTF chain truth for the remainder
(payouts.py cache — immutable, so nightly incremental cost is small);
refunds (0.5) now booked as scratches. Applied to flow, controls, and
oracle (sub5c inherits via score_flow). Ledger recompute follows; #16
verdict evaluates corrected numbers only.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Mirrors forward.py::score_oracle semantics verbatim (constants frozen from
study_oracle/tape); live-only suppress-only guards; $100 FAK walks the live
asks inside p_ref*1.05; three settle layers (own-feed tick, CLOB flags,
nightly CTF re-grade via grade_oracle.py -> oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl).
Shakedown 2026-07-22: 52 events/9 fills/43 craters at p50 541ms; 30/30
event agreement vs tape scorer on the comparable set. Verdict still binds
to forward_ledger only (#17).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
flyctl sftp flaked again (900s timeouts, magic-byte-less partial parquets)
and 14h of tape queued behind it — the research nightly waits on tape
freshness by design, so everything downstream stalled too. Port ingest.py's
proven console fallback: sftp gets 240s, then base64 over ssh console
(600s); the manifest row-count verify remains the integrity gate and
partials are cleaned on both paths.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
copybot[bot]