* per-trade Discord pings removed everywhere: copybot placement/settle/startup
alerts silenced (engine.webhook forced off), webhook_receiver.py archived,
Procfile removed. The ONLY Discord output is now live/discord_daily.py at the
end of the daily pipeline: one embed listing every watch_sharps wallet with a
Polymarket profile link + 30D conviction win% / record / P&L.
* trust.py fixes found on the first scheduled run (sharp list collapsed 25->7):
- Polymarket rewrites endDate after resolution, so freshly re-pulled wallets'
corrected res_t stopped matching the stale cross-wallet consensus
(374/454 of iohihoo's rows wrongly distrusted). v2 rows with resolved=TRUE
are now self-certifying (resolved=TRUE implies endDate-based res_t observed
post-end) — consensus only gates legacy rows.
- daily.sh invalidates watchlist wallets by DELETING their pulled row; a
transiently failed re-pull then dropped the wallet's entire history from
the trusted set (the 0x73afc816 whale vanished). Legacy rows of wallets
missing from pulled now fall back to trusting markets resolved >=14d ago.
Re-run: 85 conviction wallets, 34 copy-positive sharps — whale/iohihoo/
Stavenson/LSB1/Kruto all recovered.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
New portfolio.py replays the followed wallets' conviction bets ($1k/$50,
hold-to-resolution) from cache.duckdb — which has res_t, so capital
RECYCLES at the true resolution time (no client-side clob storms, no
phantom-locked capital) and covers the full bet history (~40 pages, not
the browser's 4). Writes portfolio.json (equity, splits, current/
resolved/missed tables, per-wallet); wired into daily.sh + publish. The
dashboard now renders the top page from this feed (1 request) with the
client-side replay kept as a fallback.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The daily run regenerates dashboard.html but the publish step never
committed it, leaving it perpetually modified. Add it to the publish git
add list and commit the current snapshot.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
daily.sh now POSTs a summary (finish time, sharp count, push status) to a
Discord webhook after the publish step. The webhook URL is read from the
gitignored config.json (daily_webhook key) so it never lands in the public
repo; the ping is skipped if the key is absent. Sends a browser User-Agent
(Discord 403s requests without one).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Add the sharps pipeline (conviction_scan.py + validate_timing.py) to the
daily run so watch_sharps.json self-updates, and a publish step that
commits + pushes the refreshed outputs (watch_skilled / watch_sharps /
conviction_wallets) so the live dashboard at jaxperro.com/trading picks
up the new set. Also force-refresh the sharps watchlist (not just
skilled) before the cache top-up for accurate forward stats. Publish
does pull --rebase before push so a diverged remote can't wedge it.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
live/: operationalizes the LBS/Yale "skilled ~3%" result against the live
data-api. Enumerate recent liquid markets -> top traders -> candidate pool;
cache every wallet's resolved bets once in DuckDB (~26k wallets / 12.5M bets,
keyed by per-bet resolution time so any cutoff re-scores in seconds); 5-gate
skill funnel (n>=15, z>0, BH-FDR, split-half OOS, MM/bot cap); dashboard +
daily refresh.
Key finding: copying the high-win-rate "favorite-rider" cohort looks +23.6%
in-sample but loses -7.4% once selected on pre-June-1 data only (99% -> 68%
win rate) — selection bias, reproducing the paper's "lucky winners revert"
result on live data. Win rate != edge, again.
wide/: bulk subgraph->DuckDB scanner (survivorship-bias-free over all wallets),
but the public subgraph is frozen at Jan 2026 -> historical tool only.
Large local data (*.duckdb, candidates.json, *_scored.json, history/) gitignored.
README + FINDINGS updated with the current logic and the clean result.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro