Sell-band evidence: every band <90c LOSES by mirroring (<30c +$79/sell
given up, 50-70c +$7.29); >=90c SAVES (-$0.85/sell, n=68).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Feed builder enriches open bet records with end_ts via the cached
_market lookup — one fetch per position lifetime, <=8 per publish pass,
fetched-but-unknown marked to prevent refetch loops. No execution-path
change; both dashboards render it under the LIVE pill with the
in-play-resolves-earlier tooltip.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2,191 episodes (400 highest-volume event/outcome groups, name-matched
semantics only): follower drift +4.12c mean in leader direction at +5m
(43% >+2c vs 17% adverse; p50=0 — thin siblings often don't print).
Tradable leg chain-true: n=2,028 · EV +$9.73/$100 buying the follower at
its last print in the leader's direction. STATED OPTIMISM: stale-print
entry (the T4 lesson — prints are not books); resting asks may have
repriced without printing. Stage-2 = execution realism (live book reads
or a paper scanner leg). Theme with T6: edge lives where repricing is
SLOW — the far side of the requote wall.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Incumbent census (volume-ranked): industrialized niche — top harvester
$3.2M vol/5,854 buys at +2.27% per ~4h hold; several ~$1M at +2.4-3.4%;
two big operators NEGATIVE (-3%) — residual risk is real, top-5 share
only 20%. Bucket returns (+6.2%/90-95c etc) are UPPER bounds: $129M of
high-price buys sit on non-tape-resolved tokens where upsets linger.
Verdict: park at our capital scale (pennies on idle cash); revisit as an
idle-cash overlay once nightly chain coverage closes the bias, or if
bankroll grows 10x.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
98 chain-graded misses. The useful inversion: crater_reject misses were
GOOD misses (-$7.74/-$6.32 per $100 both books) — unfillable entries were
adversely selected, consistent with the week's winner's-curse theme, and
puts a question mark on the 07-20 requote-retry's EV (follow-up: score
retry outcomes). Everything else outlier-dominated at n<=21/bucket (one
+1567% longshot carries depth_thin); no filter changes warranted. Ledger
deepens daily — maker-window expiries now feed it.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
9,165 chain-graded leans, 3 walk-forward days, as-of screening (no
self-selection). FOLLOW +$2.51/lean pooled (59% hit @ 58c avg), positive
ALL THREE days (+1.60/+2.20/+3.60) — day-consistency the surge signal
never had under truth. Size structure tells the mechanism: $150-500
leans FOLLOW +$2.90 (absorbed retail flow = signal); $2k+ leans FOLLOW
-$1.73 / FADE +$13.38 n=422 (whale bags = makers getting picked off).
Caveats: last-print entry optimism, thin vs the fee hurdle as taker
(maker-entry execution is the natural pairing), $2k+ fade cell needs an
event-concentration check before pre-registration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro