A killed nightly (pause/crash/reboot) left .nightly.lock.d behind — the
EXIT trap never fires on SIGKILL — and EVERY later run then skipped
silently (caught 2026-07-27: today's run exited in <1s). Lock now
records its PID and a run whose owner is gone takes it over.
Reconcile hit the 15-min tape-sync agent's single-writer lock and died;
now waits it out (20x30s).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- surgebot/oraclebot: settles now append-only to /data/*_settles.jsonl
(SETTLED_TRIM rotation can never lose a settle; graders pull them)
- forward.py: backfills any tape-covered day missing from the ledger —
a Mac offline gap > RESCORE_DAYS no longer leaves verdict-evidence holes
- meta_snap.py: nightly gzipped snapshot of all active markets (12k, 2MB/d,
local-only) — end dates make tau knowable at trigger for every tape
trigger; token->outcome maps kill the label-gap scorer artifact class
- .gitignore: pulled raw streams + meta stay local (re-fetchable, lean repo)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
v1's cash-gated book halted at its pre-registered -50% line; post-mortem
showed the ~2% cash-gated subsample was adversely selected (-$9/fill vs
+$41/fill full-signal, same day). A2 samples every trigger and replays
bankroll specs offline (surge_book_replay.py -> surge_book.json). Signal
semantics verbatim; grades to surge_meas_ledger.jsonl. See #19.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Mirrors forward.py::score_oracle semantics verbatim (constants frozen from
study_oracle/tape); live-only suppress-only guards; $100 FAK walks the live
asks inside p_ref*1.05; three settle layers (own-feed tick, CLOB flags,
nightly CTF re-grade via grade_oracle.py -> oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl).
Shakedown 2026-07-22: 52 events/9 fills/43 craters at p50 541ms; 30/30
event agreement vs tape scorer on the comparable set. Verdict still binds
to forward_ledger only (#17).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Real-time PAPER trader of the FROZEN surge signal on its own Fly app
(wwf-surgebot, recorder-pattern image, no keys, no bot imports):
$100 paper book · 5%-of-equity daily stakes ($1 venue floor) · cash-gated
all-or-nothing · event cap 2 · paper FAK against the live CLOB book inside
p_ref*1.05 · provisional CLOB settles re-graded nightly with CTF payout
vectors (grade_surge.py -> surge_paper_ledger.jsonl). Informed set
published daily (informed_set.py -> params/informed_set.json, frozen
method). Unit-tested: fill/crater/event-cap/cash paths exact; live smoke:
dual sockets + sizing clean. Believing any of it stays gated on the #16
forward verdict.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
First run exited 1 after a successful score: the exit trap's relative
rmdir ran from the repo root (post-cd) — wrong dir, stale lock left in
research/, every future night would have skipped itself.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-21 first firing failed two ways: launchd's bare python3 has no
duckdb (framework python does), and 09:15 preceded the sleep-delayed daily
pipeline's tape ingest, so even a clean run would have scored a stale
tape. nightly.sh now uses the framework python and polls tape max-ts until
it is <6h old (15min polls, 8h deadline, then scores anyway and logs the
staleness).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro