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https://github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git
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jaxperro
fce6f0f2de
Mirrors forward.py::score_oracle semantics verbatim (constants frozen from study_oracle/tape); live-only suppress-only guards; $100 FAK walks the live asks inside p_ref*1.05; three settle layers (own-feed tick, CLOB flags, nightly CTF re-grade via grade_oracle.py -> oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl). Shakedown 2026-07-22: 52 events/9 fills/43 craters at p50 541ms; 30/30 event agreement vs tape scorer on the comparable set. Verdict still binds to forward_ledger only (#17). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
65 lines
2.5 KiB
Bash
Executable File
65 lines
2.5 KiB
Bash
Executable File
#!/bin/bash
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# research nightly — scores the frozen studies on fresh tape and versions
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# the forward ledger. SILO: touches only research/ (+ the append-only
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# resolutions cache via payouts.py). Fired at 09:15 local by
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# com.jaxperro.research-nightly, but the clock time is advisory: the Mac
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# sleeps and the 08:00 daily pipeline's tape ingest lands whenever it lands
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# (2026-07-21: daily started 09:31 on wake, ingest hours later, and the
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# 09:15 firing both CRASHED on launchd's bare `python3` — no duckdb — and
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# would have scored a stale tape). So: absolute framework python, and WAIT
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# for the tape to be fresh (max ts within FRESH_S of now) before scoring,
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# up to DEADLINE_S; then run anyway and log the staleness.
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# Safe to run by hand any time: bash research/nightly.sh
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set -e
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cd "$(dirname "$0")"
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PY=/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.11/bin/python3
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FRESH_S=$((6 * 3600))
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DEADLINE_S=$((8 * 3600))
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POLL_S=900
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# ABSOLUTE lock path: the script cd's to the repo root before the git
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# steps, so a relative trap rmdir missed the dir entirely (2026-07-21 first
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# run: exit 1 + a stale lock that would have skipped every future night).
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LOCK="$(pwd)/.nightly.lock.d"
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if ! mkdir "$LOCK" 2>/dev/null; then
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echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) already running — skip" >> forward.log
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exit 0
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fi
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trap 'rmdir "$LOCK"' EXIT
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tape_age() {
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"$PY" - <<'EOF'
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import duckdb, time
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db = duckdb.connect("../live/rtds.duckdb", read_only=True)
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mx, = db.execute("select max(ts) from trades").fetchone()
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print(int(time.time() - (mx or 0)))
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EOF
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}
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start=$(date +%s)
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while true; do
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age=$(tape_age) || age=999999
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if [ "$age" -le "$FRESH_S" ]; then
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echo "== $(date -u +%FT%TZ) nightly (tape age ${age}s) ==" >> forward.log
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break
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fi
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if [ $(( $(date +%s) - start )) -ge "$DEADLINE_S" ]; then
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echo "== $(date -u +%FT%TZ) nightly DEADLINE — tape still ${age}s stale, scoring anyway ==" >> forward.log
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break
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fi
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sleep "$POLL_S"
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done
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"$PY" forward.py >> forward.log 2>&1
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"$PY" informed_set.py >> forward.log 2>&1 # surge harness reads this daily
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"$PY" grade_surge.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true # paper book -> chain truth
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"$PY" grade_oracle.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true # oracle paper -> chain truth
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cd ..
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git add research/forward_ledger.jsonl research/params/informed_set.json \
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research/surge_paper_ledger.jsonl research/oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl 2>/dev/null
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if ! git diff --cached --quiet; then
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git commit -q -m "research: forward ledger $(date -u +%F) [skip ci]"
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git pull --rebase --autostash -q && git push -q
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fi
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