FINDINGS: 'The fill model is the next scorer' section (A2 chain grade
-$7.54/fill x1344 confirms the surge kill; oracle harness chain grade
vetoes the ledger-positive tiers; virtual-book +26% variance footnote;
the five tandem tests and the makers-on-the-wall through-line).
HANDOFF: snapshot -> 07-23 (7-wallet rev 5, dark flags, Friday agenda
incl #20/#21). READMEs: /test consolidation row, measurement-harness
research row, study statuses + new script inventory.
Archive: value/ (closed 07-19) + its test, ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md,
order_probe v1 -> archive/; replay_out/ gitignored; links repaired.
Tests: all 7 active scripts pass post-move.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Gamma's default /markets listing HIDES closed markets — the resolved
Odyssey market returns [] without &closed=true. Closed markets are
exactly the population repair_market_meta exists for (resolved-but-stuck
positions), so the gamma-only lookup left the paper book's own Odyssey
copy (178.57sh, resolved won) and its France-WC position permanently
cond-less; both verified resolving via the closed view. The fetch edge
is factored into _gamma_markets so the variant order, caching, and
error-then-fallback paths are unit-tested.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Root cause of the 07-20 CASH≠CHAIN -$1.75: some markets stream RTDS
trades with empty title/outcome/conditionId; the seed stored them
verbatim, on_wallet_activity's 'tok not in self.conds' guard made the
empty value sticky, and settle_resolved's 'if not cond' skip left the
position silently unsettleable until the venue auto-redeemed it.
Three-layer fix:
- RTDS seed: when the payload lacks conditionId/title, enrich from the
token id via _token_market (gamma, cached) before dispatch; the copy
still goes through on a miss.
- conds write: falsy-overwrite instead of key-presence, so a later,
richer source repairs an empty entry.
- repair_market_meta (called at the top of every settle pass, holding
the lock): re-resolves empty conds for my_pos AND open missed entries,
backfills position/bet/missed records, 300s per-token lookup backoff,
and a once-per-token alarm when a position has sat unsettleable >1h.
A repaired token settles in the SAME pass — the Odyssey bet would have
self-healed the moment the market resolved.
The paper book currently carries 4 empty conds and both books have
cond-less open missed entries — the repair pass fixes those on the first
cycle after deploy. tests/test_meta_repair.py covers backfill, backoff,
the single alarm, recovery, and the end-to-end repair->settle un-stick;
full suite 8/8.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The flat 10s retry was calibrated to nothing; the tape now says craters
refill at very different speeds (research requote_timing, 775k crater
prints): crypto 94% within 4s, esports 83% within 10s, sports only 70% at
10s but 76% by 25s, geo/politics tails run minutes (price guard is the
protection there, not the retry). Waits move to FAK_RETRY_NICHE_DEFAULT
{crypto 4, esports 10, sports/geo/politics/other 25}, classified by the
validated research niche patterns (esports before sports so 'LoL: A vs B'
doesn't fall through on ' vs '). cfg fak_retry_niche_s overrides per key;
fak_retry_s stays the fallback (tennis: no measurement yet) and 0 still
disables the feature. Paper-parity: same map both bots. test t8 covers the
map, first-match classing, fallback, and config override.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
'no orders found to match with FAK order' is the #1 miss class (13 of the
last 48h's misses) — the copy lands in the crater the sharp just swept,
before makers requote. Instead of recording the miss at the first
rejection, hand the OPEN to Copybot.fak_requote_retry: sleep fak_retry_s
(default 10, 0 disables) OUTSIDE the bot lock, then re-run the whole gated
buy path (fresh quote, price guard, depth gate) exactly once, mirroring
the webhook call site's fill drain so a retry fill books lag + bet rows.
A second rejection records the miss tagged 'twice (re-quote retry)'.
Paper-parity: the hook is installed in both modes, and PaperExecutor's
FAK model re-decides on the fresh book. tests/test_fak_retry.py covers
hook scheduling, no-double-count sizing (their_size=0 re-entry), ADD and
non-FAK bypasses, and the end-to-end retry thread.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Railway project magnificent-kindness DELETED (soft-delete, purges
2026-07-10) — retired-infra fully gone; requirements.txt loses its
Railway-detection rationale (stdlib core, optional extras noted).
- tests/test_check_book.py: the Option A orphan-fix regression harness
moves into the repo (was session-local); 6 cases, no network/config.
- daily.sh: calibration step — one row/day of live-book vs backtest
equity to live/history/calibration.csv, the series that sizes real
money (day-zero row seeded: live $1,000 vs model $22,027).
- config.json.bak (untracked, stale copy of the leaked Alchemy key)
deleted locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro