copybot: per-niche FAK re-quote waits from measured crater-refill times

The flat 10s retry was calibrated to nothing; the tape now says craters
refill at very different speeds (research requote_timing, 775k crater
prints): crypto 94% within 4s, esports 83% within 10s, sports only 70% at
10s but 76% by 25s, geo/politics tails run minutes (price guard is the
protection there, not the retry). Waits move to FAK_RETRY_NICHE_DEFAULT
{crypto 4, esports 10, sports/geo/politics/other 25}, classified by the
validated research niche patterns (esports before sports so 'LoL: A vs B'
doesn't fall through on ' vs '). cfg fak_retry_niche_s overrides per key;
fak_retry_s stays the fallback (tennis: no measurement yet) and 0 still
disables the feature. Paper-parity: same map both bots. test t8 covers the
map, first-match classing, fallback, and config override.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

HANDOFF.md

@@ -41,8 +41,10 @@ push through.
   07-19 reconcile. **wwf-copybot** (paper $1k): same set, FAK-parity fills.
   Both on the audit-hardened build (locks, chain-gated sweep, boot-id
   single-writer guard, TLS'd user-ws — HANDOFF_ARCHIVE rev 16). 2026-07-20:
-  FAK no-match OPENs get one 10s re-quote retry on both bots (`fak_retry_s`,
-  paper-parity; misses from a second rejection tag "twice (re-quote retry)").
+  FAK no-match OPENs get one re-quote retry on both bots, PER-NICHE waits
+  from measured crater-refill times (crypto 4s / esports 10s / sports+slow
+  25s — research/params/requote_timing.json; `fak_retry_niche_s` override,
+  `fak_retry_s` fallback+kill-switch; second rejection tags "twice").
 - **wwf-recorder**: the FULL firehose (trades + order matches + comments
   + crypto ticks, ~8M events/day, dual-socket ~99.9% capture, 25GB volume,
   NOTHING deleted until the Mac verifiably ingests it) → nightly →

config.live.example.json

@@ -5,6 +5,8 @@
   "bankroll_pct": 0.04,
   "price_guard_abs": 0.05,
   "fak_retry_s": 10,
+  "fak_retry_niche_s": {"crypto": 4, "esports": 10, "sports": 25,
+                        "geo": 25, "politics": 25, "other": 25},
   "taker_fee_rate": 0.03,
   "discord_webhook": "",
   "follow": {

copybot.py

@@ -243,6 +243,40 @@ FEED_PUSH_MIN_S = 120                     # min seconds between feed git-pushes
 # with "taker_fee_rate" in config.json if that changes.
 TAKER_FEE_RATE = 0.03
 
+# FAK re-quote retry, per market niche. Waits are the measured crater-refill
+# times (research/params/requote_timing.json, 775k crater prints, 2026-07-20):
+# crypto books refill <4s 94% of the time, esports 83% by 10s, sports needs
+# ~25s (70% at 10s -> 76% at 25s); geo/politics/other tails run minutes, so
+# 25s is the cap — beyond that the price guard is the protection, not the
+# retry. Patterns are the validated research/tape.py classifier, first match
+# wins (esports before sports: "LoL: A vs B" must not fall through to
+# sports on " vs "). Config: fak_retry_niche_s overrides per key;
+# fak_retry_s stays the fallback for unmatched niches and 0 disables the
+# whole feature.
+FAK_RETRY_NICHE_DEFAULT = {"crypto": 4.0, "esports": 10.0, "sports": 25.0,
+                           "geo": 25.0, "politics": 25.0, "other": 25.0}
+NICHE_PATTERNS = [
+    ("esports", ["lol:", "dota", "cs2", "csgo", "valorant", "esports",
+                 "bilibili", "map ", "game 1", "game 2", "game 3"]),
+    ("tennis", ["tennis", "atp", "wta", "wimbledon", "set winner"]),
+    ("sports", [" vs. ", " vs ", " @ ", "mlb", "nba", "nhl", "ufc",
+                "world cup", "f1", "grand prix", "fifa"]),
+    ("crypto", ["bitcoin", "btc", "ethereum", "solana", "xrp", "doge",
+                "price of", "up or down"]),
+    ("politics", ["election", "president", "senate", "governor", "mayor",
+                  "nominee", "impeach", "tariff", "fed ", "rate cut"]),
+    ("geo", ["iran", "israel", "russia", "ukraine", "china", "taiwan",
+             "ceasefire", "strike", "nato"]),
+]
+
+
+def market_niche(title):
+    t = (title or "").lower()
+    for label, pats in NICHE_PATTERNS:
+        if any(p in t for p in pats):
+            return label
+    return "other"
+
 
 def taker_fee(shares, price, rate):
     return shares * rate * price * (1.0 - price)
@@ -894,8 +928,16 @@ class Copybot:
             engine.state["lag_recent"] = self._backfill_lag_recent()
         self.fee_rate = float(cfg.get("taker_fee_rate", TAKER_FEE_RATE))
         # FAK no-match re-quote retry wait (s); 0 disables (miss recorded at
-        # the first rejection, pre-2026-07-20 behavior)
+        # the first rejection, pre-2026-07-20 behavior). Per-niche waits from
+        # the measured crater-refill times (see FAK_RETRY_NICHE_DEFAULT);
+        # fak_retry_s is the fallback for niches without a measurement.
         self.fak_retry_s = float(cfg.get("fak_retry_s", 10))
+        self.fak_retry_niche = {
+            k: float(v) for k, v in {**FAK_RETRY_NICHE_DEFAULT,
+                                     **(cfg.get("fak_retry_niche_s") or {})}.items()}
+
+    def _fak_wait(self, title):
+        return self.fak_retry_niche.get(market_niche(title), self.fak_retry_s)
 
     def _backfill_lag_recent(self, window_s=86400):
         """[[ts, lag_s, slip], …] for fills in the last window_s, read from the
@@ -1162,9 +1204,13 @@ class Copybot:
         rows instead of surfacing later as an untracked orphan; a second
         rejection records the miss inside _handle_their_buy, tagged
         'twice (re-quote retry)'. Installed on engine.on_fak_reject by
-        main() when cfg fak_retry_s > 0 (default 10)."""
+        main() when cfg fak_retry_s > 0. The wait is PER NICHE (_fak_wait):
+        measured crater-refill times, crypto 4s / esports 10s / sports+slow
+        books 25s (research requote_timing, 2026-07-20)."""
+        wait = self._fak_wait(ctx["title"])
+
         def run():
-            time.sleep(self.fak_retry_s)
+            time.sleep(wait)
             tok = ctx["token"]
             try:
                 with self.lock:
@@ -1188,8 +1234,8 @@ class Copybot:
                     self.check_book()
             except Exception as e:
                 log(f"re-quote retry error ({ctx['label'][:36]}): {e}")
-        log(f"FAK no-match — re-quote retry in {self.fak_retry_s:.0f}s: "
-            f"{ctx['label'][:48]}")
+        log(f"FAK no-match — re-quote retry in {wait:.0f}s "
+            f"({market_niche(ctx['title'])}): {ctx['label'][:48]}")
         threading.Thread(target=run, daemon=True).start()
 
     def _ledger_buy_tokens(self):

tests/test_fak_retry.py

@@ -159,6 +159,7 @@ def t7():
     bot.here = ""
     bot.check_book = lambda: None                # network-touching, not under test
     copybot.book_depth = lambda t: None          # _record_lag's book snapshot
+    bot.fak_retry_niche = {}                     # force the scalar fallback
     bot.fak_retry_s = 0.05
     eng.on_fak_reject = bot.fak_requote_retry
     their_buy(eng)                               # reject -> schedules the retry
@@ -173,6 +174,23 @@ def t7():
     assert not eng.state.get("missed"), eng.state["missed"]
 
 
+
+@case("per-niche retry waits: measured map, first-match classing, fallback")
+def t8():
+    eng = mkengine("fak")
+    bot = copybot.Copybot(eng.cfg, eng, filt=None)
+    assert bot._fak_wait("Ethereum above 1,900 on July 20, 12PM ET?") == 4.0
+    assert bot._fak_wait("LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 2 Winner") == 10.0
+    assert bot._fak_wait("Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?") == 25.0
+    assert bot._fak_wait("Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?") == 25.0
+    assert bot._fak_wait("Completely unclassifiable market") == 25.0  # other
+    assert bot._fak_wait("Wimbledon: Alcaraz set winner") == bot.fak_retry_s  # tennis: no measurement -> fallback
+    eng.cfg["fak_retry_niche_s"] = {"crypto": 2}
+    bot2 = copybot.Copybot(eng.cfg, eng, filt=None)
+    assert bot2._fak_wait("Bitcoin above 63,400 on July 17, 3PM ET?") == 2.0
+
+
+
 print()
 print("FAILURES:", fails or "none")
 sys.exit(1 if fails else 0)