First list on the aligned taxonomy. Notable: 0xb0E43B and
ArbTraderRookie's records reveal refund-harvesting (~800/1150 EXACT-0.5
redeems on ITF totals bought under 50c — $148k of 0xb0E43B's $218k) —
real edge, but 1-2c/share margins that taker copies can't clear.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
/closed-positions serves 50-row pages regardless of limit; stepping by the
requested size truncated every wallet's exit history to its most recent ~50
closes (1% coverage for hyperactive wallets) — sold-mirroring was silently
falling back to the hold-to-res ceiling almost everywhere. Now: page by
returned size, cache exits incrementally in duckdb (immutable events —
deep backfill once, a page or two per refresh; title/outcome columns for
display). Deep-exit 30d replay: $18,270 (+1727%), 259W/79L/29R/284S,
misses 253 -> 1 (mirrored exits recycle capital as fast as the signal does).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The honest 30d backtest: $1k -> $2,538 (+154%), 78W/18L/112R — not the
refund-inflated +8,627%. Sharp list: 33 copy-positive holders under truth
gates; 0x4bFb-whale and ArbTrader no longer qualify (their conviction
records were carried by 50/50 refunds counted as wins). portfolio.py now
reports refunds as R, not L (a scratch is not a loss).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* validate_timing.display_stats adds all_win/all_won/all_lost/all_pnl —
the wallet's record and own P&L over EVERY resolved bet ever cached,
trusted rows only, deduped one-per-market (feeds the dashboard's new
All-Time columns); consensus temp table now built before the pool
* copybot write_feed adds classes {name: volume|whale} so the dashboard
can badge whale-class wallets
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* per-trade Discord pings removed everywhere: copybot placement/settle/startup
alerts silenced (engine.webhook forced off), webhook_receiver.py archived,
Procfile removed. The ONLY Discord output is now live/discord_daily.py at the
end of the daily pipeline: one embed listing every watch_sharps wallet with a
Polymarket profile link + 30D conviction win% / record / P&L.
* trust.py fixes found on the first scheduled run (sharp list collapsed 25->7):
- Polymarket rewrites endDate after resolution, so freshly re-pulled wallets'
corrected res_t stopped matching the stale cross-wallet consensus
(374/454 of iohihoo's rows wrongly distrusted). v2 rows with resolved=TRUE
are now self-certifying (resolved=TRUE implies endDate-based res_t observed
post-end) — consensus only gates legacy rows.
- daily.sh invalidates watchlist wallets by DELETING their pulled row; a
transiently failed re-pull then dropped the wallet's entire history from
the trusted set (the 0x73afc816 whale vanished). Legacy rows of wallets
missing from pulled now fall back to trusting markets resolved >=14d ago.
Re-run: 85 conviction wallets, 34 copy-positive sharps — whale/iohihoo/
Stavenson/LSB1/Kruto all recovered.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Two data bugs were hiding the best copy targets (FINDINGS 'The holder
blind spot'):
* live/trust.py (new): only score rows whose res_t matches the market's
consensus resolution time across >=2 wallets, pulled after resolution,
resolved != False. Kills the res_t=ts fallback poison that let scalpers
masquerade as 99%-win holders (ArbTraderRookie's rows were 100% this).
* conviction_scan.py: trusted rows only; p80 conviction cutoff from the
train window only (look-ahead leak); new gates z_all>2 (whole-book z,
~doubles pooled forward copy-ROI) and median conviction stake >=$50
(dust filter). 55 wallets selected, forward 30/38 profitable, +21.4%
pooled (was 284 selected, +16.0%).
* validate_timing.py: the held-edge gates now read the trailing-90d
trusted conviction record via trust.conviction_record instead of the
replay's held leg, which is structurally ~all-unresolved for week-lead
holders (whale 0x73afc816 showed 'held 0-0, 21 unresolved' and was
rejected at 100% fwd win). 25 copy-positive holders now, including
Stavenson (51-0), the whale (112-4) and iohihoo (98-10).
* cache.py: query() helper so trust.py shares the single in-process
connection instead of fighting the single-writer lock.
* README: gotcha 8 (fake res_t/won) + candidate next data sources
(Goldsky pipelines, PolymarketData order books, Pinnacle CLV,
Polysights); FINDINGS: dated section correcting the iohihoo/ArbTrader
scalper-trap verdicts as winner=False-bug artifacts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- get_json: catch OSError + http.client.HTTPException (RemoteDisconnected/
IncompleteRead escaped the retry loop and killed last night's validate_timing
run on a single dropped keep-alive).
- validate_timing: per-wallet retry+exclude guard so one bad wallet can't take
out the whole selection; regenerated watch_sharps.json — the first fee-aware,
resolved-only sharp list (10 copy-positive holders of 254).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replace the blunt 24h lead gate with a copy-replay selection run on EVERY
conviction wallet: keep only those that are copy-positive AND have a
genuine hold-to-resolution edge (held_pnl>0, held win-rate>=55% over >=8
resolved held bets), active in 30d, with a light >=1h lead floor vs true
snipers. display_stats now splits copy P&L into scalp vs held legs and
uses fresh-positions resolution (clob fallback) so it's cheap enough to
run on all ~229 wallets.
Effect: drops scalper-traps whose win% looked great but lose copied
(ArbTrader, iohihoo, S888, ttj01) and the old lead gate's discards;
surfaces fast-resolving copy-positive holders it used to throw away
(raid3r, 0x6d1A94f4, 0xec1d07e5, mantaray, earthisgood, shisan...).
14 copy-positive holders now in watch_sharps.json.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
display_stats now computes copy_pnl: what a flat-$50 copier of a wallet's
conviction bets ACTUALLY realizes since Jun 1 — replays their entries,
mirrors their exits, and settles held bets at AUTHORITATIVE clob
resolution (winner by token_id). This is the truth for copyability and
exposes scalpers whose position win% looks great but lose when copied
(ArbTrader 99.5% conv win but -$793 copy; iohihoo 88.7% but -$749).
Position win%/record/P&L stay on the cache (large 180d sample). Added a
clob resolver (_clob_winner) + activity-replay; only Kruto2027 (+1184),
S888, oliman2, fortuneking (+430) etc. are positive to copy.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
validate_timing now filters the sharp list to wallets that have traded in
the last 30 days (last_trade from the /activity pull), so watch_sharps.json
only lists currently-active sharps — not just hidden client-side. Dropped
10 of 41 on this run (-> 31 active). The dashboard keeps its own 30d filter
as a safety net for daily-stale feeds.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
display_stats now emits conv30_win/won/lost/pnl — conviction (top-20%)
bets resolved in the last 30 days — for a new "30 Day Conv Record" column
on the dashboard alongside the lifetime record.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
display_stats now emits avg_bet = average stake of the wallet's
conviction (top-20%) bets, for a new dashboard column after the P&L
columns.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro