- engine (copytrade): stake_usd() = bankroll_pct x current equity (cash + open
cost basis) - Kelly-style compounding both directions - halved while equity
sits below 80% of its high-water mark; new risk.max_per_event (default 2)
blocks stacking correlated markets on one real-world event (dated-slug prefix
grouping; LSB1 once put 6 conviction bets on a single match).
- copybot: feed/summary report the dynamic stake, stake_pct, event_cap, hwm.
- portfolio backtest mirrors the exact same rule (PCT 4%, clamp $5-$150,
EVENT_CAP 2, brake 80%/half), with per-bet stakes in every table row and a
persistent CLOB slug cache for event grouping. June backfill: +426% vs +168%
flat - compounding amplifies the in-sample month; July live is the test.
Misses fell 62 -> 19 cash-missed (+26 deliberate event-cap skips): smaller
early stakes capture more signals.
- configs: bankroll_pct 0.04, max_trade/max_position 150 (runaway guards),
max_per_event 2.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- portfolio.py: follow set -> the fee-aware copy-positive sharps (Kruto2027,
shisan888, fortuneking) + LSB1; entries pay the 0.03 sports taker fee and a
+0.5%/~90s lag haircut (entry_model); backfilled from June 1; feed exposes
fee_rate/slip/lag_est_s/fees_paid and unreal uses true cost basis.
- copybot.paper.json: same four wallets, p80 conviction floors from the cache
(Kruto $123.08, shisan $704.33, fortuneking $970, LSB1 $231). Fresh $1k state
committed separately by the bot - clean July book.
- host/start.sh + nixpacks: turnkey 24/7 worker for Railway/Fly/VPS - clones
with GITHUB_TOKEN, resumes the committed state, polls 60s, publishes
state+feed+fills back through publish_feed. Replaces the Mac poller.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro