Sell-band evidence: every band <90c LOSES by mirroring (<30c +$79/sell
given up, 50-70c +$7.29); >=90c SAVES (-$0.85/sell, n=68).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
User-directed flip 2026-07-23 (ahead of the Friday read; the user go is
the gate, per both pre-registrations). Maker entries: GTC at the sharp's
price, 60s registry TTL, no chase. Hold-through: mirrored exits ignored
and ledgered to copybot_ignored_exits[.live].jsonl as the live
counterfactual. Verdict bars unchanged: #20 keep/revert at n>=30 resolved
(fill>=70% or ROI>=parity edge / revert fill<55%@40, ROI<=0@30); #21
keep/revert at n>=30 resolved ignored-exits (hold>=mirror / revert
-$50@30 or 25% attributable DD).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Bench promotion per the #13 method run early: +17.4%/+33.5% both windows
(n=5), insider z 2.5 (p_luck 0.7%), 64% day-of entries, 1% refunds.
gkmgkldfmg stays per user call. Live mirrors paper exactly.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
30-day backtest replay of all 11 proving wallets: Bikes leads at +$7,804
(slow geopolitics/novelty markets — the most copyable flow profile in the
set: 12 conviction bets >$100 in his last 60 trades, no in-play delay, no
5-min races). AIcAIc out: weakest incumbent forward (+$32 paper, −$9.5
live, only negative wallet) and his sell-timing class is the one most
flattered by zero-lag backtest fills — benched in backtest.json to re-prove.
badaf keeps his seat: +105% ROI on invested and 6-0 forward. LSB1 (+$55)
and imwalkinghere (uncopyable) stay out — both validated by this replay.
42021 cut from the bench (+$15 dud). Bench now: Vahan88, EdwardIN, LSB1,
imwalkinghere, AIcAIc.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The 08:00 daily sync_floors.py unconditionally overwrote every paper-book
floor with the trusted p80 — silently reverting Kruto 80→125.61 the morning
after the deliberate lowering, so the paper book stopped matching the live
book (which reads a different config) and the 'catch more Kruto flow'
experiment ran on real money only. sync_floors now honors a per-wallet
floor_pin; Kruto pinned to 80 in paper + backtest (live already 80 via
per_wallet_min_usd). All three books gate Kruto at 80 again.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5-day forward sample (101 paper + 31 live copies): imwalkinghere produced
ZERO copies — his flow is 5-min BTC Up/Down markets that resolve faster
than any copy can act, and his missed bets would have LOST $390. LSB1 is
the worst forward performer (−$397, 2-4; misses also negative) → demoted
to backtest.json for re-proving. Kruto: +$736 from TWO copies at the
highest z on the table (19.3) — floor lowered to catch more flow. Bench
adds to backtest for forward proving: Vahan88, 42021, BikesAreTheBikes,
EdwardIN. badaf vindicated (+$310, 6-0 + the 0.001 counterfactual) and
stays; AIcAIc gets a week under RTDS before judgment.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
User call 2026-07-13 after a big 0.001 longshot was floor-blocked (the
same band class that blocked the 16x Hive copy at 0.05). Executor's
protected prices now round to 4dp and scale with the price — the old 2dp
rounding zeroed the bound on sub-penny books (BUY never bounds below the
quoted cross; SELL never above the quoted bid; verified at 0.001/0.002).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
1. Caps retired: risk block mirrors the paper sentinels; sizing is the
paper bot's 4%-of-equity (class_pct 0.04/0.12), floored at the venue's
$1 min order (4% of a $22 book is $0.89 — sub-min stakes died at the
gate). bankroll rebased to the real $22.28 equity; spend tracker reset
(the confusing $35 is gone with the daily cap).
2. Price guard is now ABSOLUTE +0.05 (both books): 0.14→0.15 follows,
0.14→0.20 skips. The relative 5% blocked one-tick moves on cheap
in-play books.
3. Pending-order registry: in-play 'delayed' holds are no longer cancelled
at 20s — the executor hands them to state.pending_orders with full copy
context; the heartbeat resolver adopts the fill whenever it lands
(bets/my_pos/cash/ledger, TTL 600s → cancel + honest miss). Recovers
Rune-Eaters-class holds (+$7.50 forfeited by the old cancel).
5 stub-client paths pass incl. adopt + expire.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
stake = class % of equity (drawdown-braked), capped at the signal's own
position size so far (OPEN caps at their fill, ADDs grow with their
position). No sweep, no $250 pin — fills stay within size the market
demonstrably absorbed from the signal itself.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Whale-class wallets bypass min_their_usd and per-wallet floors entirely:
both current whales win ~92% across their ENTIRE book (Stavenson 469-39,
0x4bFb 862-72 all-time trusted; 99.2% last 30d for the whale), so
size-filtering them only costs flow. The 0.95 entry cap stays (execution
guard, validated). Floors removed from the paper config for both.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
follow.stake_mult ({address: mult}) scales the equity fraction for that
wallet's signals; drawdown brake and stake cap still apply, and the
profit-ratchet sweep threshold stays on the BASE fraction so which wallet
happens to trade doesn't change when profits get banked. Verified: $40
base stake -> $120 for the two, $40 for everyone else, case-insensitive.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The three trusted-record holders from the May->June re-validation (51-0,
112-4, 98-10 trailing conviction records; see FINDINGS 'holder blind spot').
Existing five wallets unchanged; p80 floors from the cache (Stavenson 3922.17,
whale 940.14, iohihoo 55.63).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Once working equity exceeds stake_cap/pct ($6,250 at 4%), surplus cash sweeps
to state["reserve"]/portfolio reserve - banked, never bet, immune to drawdown
- keeping stakes at the $250 level where marketable fills sit inside typical
book depth. Feed/summary gain reserve; realized = cash+exposure+reserve-bank.
June backfill: equity $15,684 (+1468%), $9,185 banked, next stake pinned $250.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
+$2,454 copy P&L, 72.4% conviction win (144-55), $257 avg bet, 2.1h median
lead. Added to bot configs (p80 floor $115.27) + backtest set. June backfill
with him: +2677% (in-sample selection bias + compounding, next stake $1,070 -
treat as a ceiling; depth-aware fills become necessary at these clip sizes).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- guard: by rule, a price BELOW the sharp's fill always passes (strictly
better odds; the symmetric guard once skipped a 0.70->0.51 improvement that
won +$36). Only adverse drift is gated by price_guard_pct.
- entry cap: June sweep (0.75-1.0) peaked at max_entry 0.95 - >95c favorites
added ~23 wins yet lowered final equity (slip+fee eat 1-3% payouts, capital
compounds better elsewhere); deep caps cut real winners. Set in all configs
+ portfolio MAX_ENTRY (env-overridable for sweeps; PORTFOLIO_OUT added).
Canonical June backfill: +716%, 219W/52L, $374 fees.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
max_trade/max_position guards lifted in both paper configs; backtest STAKE_CAP
-> inf. June backfill uncapped: +531%, next stake $252, $195 fees.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Engine default + both bot configs + backtest set to 0 (cap logic stays, opt-in
via risk.max_per_event). June backfill without the cap: +465%, 237 resolved
(202W/35L), 22 missed, $170 fees.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro