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research: oraclebot — Study B real-time paper harness (wwf-oraclebot) + nightly chain grading

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Mirrors forward.py::score_oracle semantics verbatim (constants frozen from
study_oracle/tape); live-only suppress-only guards; $100 FAK walks the live
asks inside p_ref*1.05; three settle layers (own-feed tick, CLOB flags,
nightly CTF re-grade via grade_oracle.py -> oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl).
Shakedown 2026-07-22: 52 events/9 fills/43 craters at p50 541ms; 30/30
event agreement vs tape scorer on the comparable set. Verdict still binds
to forward_ledger only (#17).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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jaxperro
2026-07-22 16:51:53 -04:00
parent ace347e99d
commit fce6f0f2de
5 changed files with 959 additions and 1 deletions
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research/nightly.sh
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@@ -53,10 +53,11 @@ done
"$PY" forward.py >> forward.log 2>&1
"$PY" informed_set.py >> forward.log 2>&1 # surge harness reads this daily
"$PY" grade_surge.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true # paper book -> chain truth
"$PY" grade_oracle.py >> forward.log 2>&1 || true # oracle paper -> chain truth
cd ..
git add research/forward_ledger.jsonl research/params/informed_set.json \
research/surge_paper_ledger.jsonl 2>/dev/null
research/surge_paper_ledger.jsonl research/oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl 2>/dev/null
if ! git diff --cached --quiet; then
git commit -q -m "research: forward ledger $(date -u +%F) [skip ci]"
git pull --rebase --autostash -q && git push -q