copybot: live paper feed [skip ci]

copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl

@@ -614,3 +614,4 @@
 {"ts": 1785077313.1, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785077644.3, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785077976.5, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785078305.4, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}

copybot_missed_archive.jsonl

@@ -2,3 +2,4 @@
 {"ts": 1783596707, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "67316041392595003970935162895075724563017159074192091517379695493042764601836", "cond": "0x9287e54a43cbc37355e3646f3a450eb4543d975da64960a25e69740966d41aa4", "title": "Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "GamerLegion", "price": 0.26, "stake": 45.29, "reason": "price moved 0.24\u21920.26", "status": "sold", "pnl": -26.23, "settled": 1783606057, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_checked": true, "exit_price": 0.1183}
 {"ts": 1783598001, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "9679320407472932109528091937661974039402650044145955274074635176957029935409", "cond": "0x45bd5bbfdfea7124c07903b2b48804ae485555c5c2edb42c1c1446a0706f1ee9", "title": "Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of July 6 2026?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.89, "stake": 44.77, "reason": "followed but not placed \u2014 silent exit at copy time (thin/no-ask book most likely; both silent paths instrumented 2026-07-09)", "status": "won", "pnl": 5.39, "settled": 1783715665, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true}
 {"ts": 1783602410, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "65585128992878043579543337949365468961659444652241007486927374035531121325136", "cond": "0x7d055d8db3ee70c0781b1a263c29beefcbf83bc9790c06b67199221135e34029", "title": "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "Team Liquid", "price": 0.35, "stake": 44.98, "reason": "price moved 0.25\u21920.35", "status": "sold", "pnl": -11.38, "settled": 1783611803, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_checked": true, "exit_price": 0.2742}
+{"ts": 1783604149, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "67641966972047957873936737096988118191995511744453931882847190188392441958087", "cond": "0xecde241a4741d42286e5395049fceaf619514722fba5924637cc8207246b7eb8", "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 9?", "outcome": "Up", "price": 0.71, "stake": 44.73, "reason": "price moved 0.59\u21920.71", "status": "sold", "pnl": 1.14, "settled": 1783620288, "name": "1kto1m", "exit_price": 0.74}

copybot_rejects.jsonl

@@ -123,3 +123,8 @@
 {"ts": 1785077212.0, "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", "token": "76086080721211914578465521311103562342722558385619086781992496684492302000361", "cond": "0x94ff87418950d4d712605dd9ba5efbf80cd05c37d27057456c3d67e5b4cde514", "usd": 3.85, "price": 0.77, "reason": "$4 < conviction floor $80", "title": "Spread: Tobol Kostanay (-2.5)", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785078123.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "48025382529750567685072394432380546840954558388193330194986975453537142750387", "cond": "0xf13b10468f72942e3e5bf520dbca6fa03f596e806c173195b8b4e622b5f57ef9", "usd": 2.65, "price": 0.5199999921509406, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 26?", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785078123.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "101737069197249387963102004851211025566354274707549809068983221444221729231145", "cond": "0xc0a93ddba814197618a31c351b7491d8aaa2e2ae00d222a0bdaa4bf675f56712", "usd": 2.15, "price": 0.43, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 26?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785078250.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "48025382529750567685072394432380546840954558388193330194986975453537142750387", "cond": "0xf13b10468f72942e3e5bf520dbca6fa03f596e806c173195b8b4e622b5f57ef9", "usd": 2.75, "price": 0.54, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 26?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785078251.6, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "101737069197249387963102004851211025566354274707549809068983221444221729231145", "cond": "0xc0a93ddba814197618a31c351b7491d8aaa2e2ae00d222a0bdaa4bf675f56712", "usd": 2.05, "price": 0.41, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 26?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785078265.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "48025382529750567685072394432380546840954558388193330194986975453537142750387", "cond": "0xf13b10468f72942e3e5bf520dbca6fa03f596e806c173195b8b4e622b5f57ef9", "usd": 2.54, "price": 0.4799999608, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 26?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785078265.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "101737069197249387963102004851211025566354274707549809068983221444221729231145", "cond": "0xc0a93ddba814197618a31c351b7491d8aaa2e2ae00d222a0bdaa4bf675f56712", "usd": 2.44, "price": 0.47, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 26?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785078294.6, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "115473468773460773779037287694704603605055350918057990080306971866121986289715", "cond": "0x70eb82556e062975ed23ff8e07a355f132a79f17ef6267ee8be0a8c283ef7dbd", "usd": 27.13, "price": 0.3799999944, "reason": "$27 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?", "mode": "paper"}

copybot_state.json

@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 {
   "started_at": 1783541947.246319,
   "seen_tx": [
-    "0xde90ebe713419c2590a24523d8db97e20f9c0fa2d640baa021bdf29a9d601ebc",
     "0x0af78d4f36fec690d96d58ce69858151405bc6085fdbbe506b88e866449b5146",
     "0x26505c096bdb03086ca8671ec159b891f65159af5d2c71a6ce2ea6a35632627e",
     "0x97d314e8801939bc94d582c22f689e023c17b7630f8e5ba22f426541f4a1ccf3",
@@ -5000,7 +4999,8 @@
     "0x2138b8f339542ff33610ca7823995c2a4d7ac264386036d3d21c662dc4c7c100",
     "0x87fe2fcb6fced04df39e36d2671f447034d5bc9335c723ff735b6b58435aeef1",
     "0x92248fa52857b472e77eb97bce168778bc7e53f2b53769d39410a92c46ab8e0d",
-    "0xa7e3425c47d7dab63706f93ee8d6f7346047b0f00063556b70c0f074e7ffe91a"
+    "0xa7e3425c47d7dab63706f93ee8d6f7346047b0f00063556b70c0f074e7ffe91a",
+    "0x3f56b4f1c52874db3ac7150217f3bac9369027c6845546b41adca5938881f0a3"
   ],
   "their_pos": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": {
@@ -7600,7 +7600,8 @@
       "99905615957438332226802867644651911584954235314919986394258986358958465892775": 0.0,
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-      "48025382529750567685072394432380546840954558388193330194986975453537142750387": 0.0
+      "48025382529750567685072394432380546840954558388193330194986975453537142750387": 0.0,
+      "54620342958738283704802452250340372295186538019357418907215676271029676157053": 67.942306
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     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": {
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@@ -18826,25 +18827,9 @@
     }
   },
   "hwm": 3279.700634625008,
-  "feed_sig": "cdb2497cdb3dee007127e27a52e44bf1",
+  "feed_sig": "b76506d24b00ccc2f465a581735daea2",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1785078043.805054,
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1785078294.7708142,
   "missed": [
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-      "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
-      "token": "67641966972047957873936737096988118191995511744453931882847190188392441958087",
-      "cond": "0xecde241a4741d42286e5395049fceaf619514722fba5924637cc8207246b7eb8",
-      "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 9?",
-      "outcome": "Up",
-      "price": 0.71,
-      "stake": 44.73,
-      "reason": "price moved 0.59\u21920.71",
-      "status": "sold",
-      "pnl": 1.14,
-      "settled": 1783620288,
-      "name": "1kto1m",
-      "exit_price": 0.74
-    },
     {
       "ts": 1783611728,
       "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -22022,6 +22007,21 @@
       "settled": 1785074331,
       "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
       "exit_price": 0.999
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785078307,
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "token": "54620342958738283704802452250340372295186538019357418907215676271029676157053",
+      "cond": "0x7751647558c676e670214b1161ba938c16417b09c7b577310ad80652d70066c1",
+      "title": "Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "price": 0.5199,
+      "stake": 35.33,
+      "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+      "status": "open",
+      "pnl": null,
+      "settled": null,
+      "name": "0xbadaf319"
     }
   ],
   "no_miss_toks": [
@@ -22136,7 +22136,7 @@
     "111238155193029214626119372717509509454868187612257655146390848111901958320265": 1,
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-    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 542,
+    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 543,
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@@ -22147,8 +22147,8 @@
   "trade_cursor": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
-    "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1784882427,
+    "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1785077212,
-    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785078123,
+    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785078288,
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1785072937,
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     "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1785061483,
@@ -22170,24 +22170,9 @@
   "paper_maker": [],
   "maker_stats": {
     "fills": 39,
-    "misses": 16
+    "misses": 17
   },
   "ignored_exits": [
-    {
-      "ts": 1785008988.7,
-      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.88,
-      "shares_held": 0.8746,
-      "cost_held": 0.61,
-      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "paper"
-    },
     {
       "ts": 1785009329.2,
       "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
@@ -25172,6 +25157,21 @@
       "outcome": "Yes",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785078305.4,
+      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.88,
+      "shares_held": 0.8746,
+      "cost_held": 0.61,
+      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
     }
   ]
 }

live/copybot_live.json

@@ -2138,6 +2138,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785078307,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "54620342958738283704802452250340372295186538019357418907215676271029676157053",
+   "cond": "0x7751647558c676e670214b1161ba938c16417b09c7b577310ad80652d70066c1",
+   "title": "Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.5199,
+   "stake": 35.33,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785069395,
    "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -3077,26 +3092,9 @@
    "settled": 1784649073,
    "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
    "exit_checked": true
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784148369,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "97790474719190241406489821993233180311618193540151039410585653304993937141574",
-   "cond": "0xb2af625fa98691e234f918fb36e5063ca14d436d5d7b1a1ad299bbb1890694a3",
-   "title": "Will Argentina win the World Cup?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.716,
-   "stake": 64.21,
-   "reason": "book unreliable (spread 0.14 > 0.08)",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": 16.45,
-   "settled": 1784649073,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "exit_checked": true,
-   "exit_price": 0.908
   }
  ],
- "missed_pnl": 111221.76,
+ "missed_pnl": 111220.62,
  "last_fill": {
   "ts": 1785074431,
   "side": "SELL",
@@ -3112,7 +3110,7 @@
    "wins": 19,
    "open_cost": 665.1,
    "open_n": 11,
-   "miss_n": 72,
+   "miss_n": 73,
    "miss_pnl": 111875.27,
    "last_ts": 1785059815
   },
@@ -3197,5 +3195,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1785078108
+ "updated": 1785078313
 }

live/copybot_live_full.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1785078108,
+ "updated": 1785078313,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
    "realized": 525.84,
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
    "wins": 19,
    "open_cost": 665.1,
    "open_n": 11,
-   "miss_n": 72,
+   "miss_n": 73,
    "miss_pnl": 111875.27,
    "last_ts": 1785059815
   },
@@ -5063,6 +5063,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
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+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "54620342958738283704802452250340372295186538019357418907215676271029676157053",
+   "cond": "0x7751647558c676e670214b1161ba938c16417b09c7b577310ad80652d70066c1",
+   "title": "Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.5199,
+   "stake": 35.33,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785069395,
    "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",