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docs: document conviction-profile scan + timing gate + 23 copyable sharps
README/FINDINGS/live-README now cover the repeatable find: score high-conviction (>=$200) bets, validate forward (25/37 profitable, p=0.024), then a lead-time gate drops uncopyable insiders -> 23 validated copyable sharps shown live on jaxperro.com/trading. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -191,6 +191,17 @@ win rate ≠ edge, again. (The `value`/longshot archetype — wallets that beat
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*underdog* prices — is the one worth testing next.) Full pipeline in
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[`live/README.md`](live/README.md).
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**What does work (the repeatable find).** Scoring wallets on their **high-
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conviction (≥$200) bets** — which win 70–80% on genuinely-uncertain (~0.4–0.6)
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markets — trained pre-June and validated June: **25/37 stayed profitable forward
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(p=0.024)**. A lead-time gate (`validate_timing.py`) then drops the ~30% that are
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uncopyable insiders (entry <6h before resolution), leaving **23 validated
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copyable sharps** (`watch_sharps.json`), surfaced live on
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[jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading). One held **80% win over
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1,017 forward bets**. This is the strongest evidence in the project that
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*followable* skill exists — though execution lag/fees and ongoing forward
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validation still gate turning it into real money.
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---
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## The honest verdict
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