docs: document conviction-profile scan + timing gate + 23 copyable sharps

README/FINDINGS/live-README now cover the repeatable find: score high-conviction
(>=$200) bets, validate forward (25/37 profitable, p=0.024), then a lead-time
gate drops uncopyable insiders -> 23 validated copyable sharps shown live on
jaxperro.com/trading.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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jaxperro
2026-06-19 09:43:27 -06:00
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@@ -191,6 +191,17 @@ win rate ≠ edge, again. (The `value`/longshot archetype — wallets that beat
*underdog* prices — is the one worth testing next.) Full pipeline in
[`live/README.md`](live/README.md).
**What does work (the repeatable find).** Scoring wallets on their **high-
conviction (≥$200) bets** — which win 7080% on genuinely-uncertain (~0.40.6)
markets — trained pre-June and validated June: **25/37 stayed profitable forward
(p=0.024)**. A lead-time gate (`validate_timing.py`) then drops the ~30% that are
uncopyable insiders (entry <6h before resolution), leaving **23 validated
copyable sharps** (`watch_sharps.json`), surfaced live on
[jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading). One held **80% win over
1,017 forward bets**. This is the strongest evidence in the project that
*followable* skill exists — though execution lag/fees and ongoing forward
validation still gate turning it into real money.
---
## The honest verdict