docs: document conviction-profile scan + timing gate + 23 copyable sharps

README/FINDINGS/live-README now cover the repeatable find: score high-conviction
(>=$200) bets, validate forward (25/37 profitable, p=0.024), then a lead-time
gate drops uncopyable insiders -> 23 validated copyable sharps shown live on
jaxperro.com/trading.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

FINDINGS.md

@@ -165,6 +165,29 @@ copier with **missed-trade accounting** (capital tied in open positions).
 the edge is only capturable by concentrating on few wallets' high-conviction
 bets. The live tracker (jaxperro.com/trading) now runs exactly that config.*
 
+## The repeatable profile: conviction bets + a timing gate (the best result)
+
+Refining the above: instead of all bets, score wallets on their HIGH-CONVICTION
+bets only — their large (>= $200) stakes. The top wallets win **70-80% of their
+big bets on genuinely-uncertain (~0.4-0.6 priced) markets** — real edge, not
+favorite-riding — and it persists. `live/conviction_scan.py` (train pre-June,
+validate June) found **69 wallets** matching the profile; forward, **25/37 stayed
+profitable (p=0.024), +11.7% pooled**. A reproducible class, not a fluke.
+
+Then the decisive copyability filter, `live/validate_timing.py`: a near-100% win
+rate is either foresight (copyable) or last-second information (uncopyable). The
+tell is **entry->resolution lead time on winning conviction bets**. Of the 69,
+**21 were insiders** (median lead < 6h — you can't mirror them), leaving **23
+validated copyable sharps** (`watch_sharps.json`) with multi-day leads. The
+standout `0x60ec1744…` held 80% win over **1,017 forward conviction bets**; even
+the suspiciously-perfect `0x72e1…` (99/100% win) enters ~7 days early — a real
+forecaster, not an insider. These 23 are surfaced live on jaxperro.com/trading.
+
+*Lesson: score conviction bets, not all bets; require avg entry ~0.4-0.6 (edge,
+not favorites); and gate on lead time to drop insiders. That funnel produces a
+copyable, forward-validated set — the strongest evidence in this project that
+followable skill exists.*
+
 ## Repo layout
 
 - `insider.py` — the detector: z-score/p-value, timing/freshness/sizing signals,

README.md

@@ -191,6 +191,17 @@ win rate ≠ edge, again. (The `value`/longshot archetype — wallets that beat
 *underdog* prices — is the one worth testing next.) Full pipeline in
 [`live/README.md`](live/README.md).
 
+**What does work (the repeatable find).** Scoring wallets on their **high-
+conviction (≥$200) bets** — which win 70–80% on genuinely-uncertain (~0.4–0.6)
+markets — trained pre-June and validated June: **25/37 stayed profitable forward
+(p=0.024)**. A lead-time gate (`validate_timing.py`) then drops the ~30% that are
+uncopyable insiders (entry <6h before resolution), leaving **23 validated
+copyable sharps** (`watch_sharps.json`), surfaced live on
+[jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading). One held **80% win over
+1,017 forward bets**. This is the strongest evidence in the project that
+*followable* skill exists — though execution lag/fees and ongoing forward
+validation still gate turning it into real money.
+
 ---
 
 ## The honest verdict

live/README.md

@@ -74,6 +74,23 @@ archetype (beats underdog prices) is where real alpha may live — test it with
   follow 1,200 trades), but **1–2 wallets + a conviction (bet-size) filter clears**
   out-of-sample. See `../FINDINGS.md`.
 
+## The repeatable find (`conviction_scan.py` + `validate_timing.py`)
+
+The best result. Score wallets on their **high-conviction (≥$200) bets only**: the
+edge is wallets that win 70–80% on genuinely-uncertain (~0.4–0.6) markets — real
+skill, not favorite-riding.
+
+- `conviction_scan.py` — train pre-June / validate June on conviction bets →
+  69 matches, **25/37 profitable forward (p=0.024)**. → `conviction_wallets.json`.
+- `validate_timing.py` — the copyability gate: entry→resolution **lead time** on
+  winning conviction bets separates copyable sharps (multi-day lead) from
+  uncopyable insiders (<6h). Drops 21 insiders → **23 validated copyable sharps**.
+  → `watch_sharps.json` (shown live on jaxperro.com/trading).
+
+Identifiers for a follow-worthy wallet: on its **≥$200 bets** — win ≥65%, avg
+entry 0.35–0.70 (edge, not favorites), +copy-ROI, FDR-significant, **median lead
+≥24h** (copyable), and it **holds out-of-sample**.
+
 ## Daily (`daily.sh`)
 
 1. discover (enumerate last 14d) → 2. freshen cache (force-refresh watchlist +