docs: stage-0 coherence pass across README/HANDOFF/recorder/research

- README: recorder row + architecture diagram reflect fold->parquet->
  15-min mirror (and research/ joins the diagram); cheat-sheet gains a
  'sync the tape now' row
- HANDOFF: snapshot dated 2026-07-21, launchd roster (tape-sync +
  research-nightly wait behavior), #15 back in the open queue, tape ops
  line in quick-reference
- recorder/README: ops block (sync_tape + fold health, deploy gap note),
  storage economics (/mo, mirror as Stage-1 feedstock)
- research/README: nightly.sh wait-for-fresh-tape semantics
- live/tape_sharps.json: refreshed 4-day chain-validated screen (the
  smoke run had briefly left a chain-less version)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

README.md

@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ Three deployed pieces + one static dashboard:
 | **copybot worker** (`copybot.py` via `host/start.sh`) | **Fly.io app `wwf-copybot`, region `arn` (Stockholm), 24/7** — migrated off Railway 2026-07-06: Railway ran it in a US region, which Polymarket's IP geoblock would 403 the moment orders got real; Stockholm is unrestricted AND ~25ms from the CLOB's eu-west-2 primaries. Every boot self-checks the geo-gate (`host/geocheck.py`) and verifies the clone against `git ls-remote` (stale-replica guard) | **T0 = the RTDS trade stream** (gotcha 18): every platform trade, wallet-attributed, **~1s detection** (measured p50 0.8s over 22k msgs), silent-stale guard force-reconnects a quiet socket. Backstops: the Alchemy address-activity webhook (~3s, `POST /alchemy`, signature-verified — **T0b chain seed** 2026-07-14: its tx hashes decode straight from the receipt's OrderFilled logs when the data-api indexer lags, so RTDS-silent markets still copy at push speed), a 5-min backstop poll, and the reconcile janitor. Per-wallet **trade cursor** paginates the activity feed so clip bursts can't scroll past a fetch (H3). 60s heartbeat settles/publishes; paper-copies with real fees/lag/slippage AND live-FAK thin-book reality (**paper FAK parity** 2026-07-16: a quote with no ask inside the protected band books a MISS, not a fill — keeps the live-vs-paper per-signal ratio honest; `live/edge.py` turns it into the daily bankroll-decision verdict in `history/edge.csv` + the Discord digest footer); commits its book back to the repo |
 | **REAL-MONEY worker** (same code, `COPYBOT_ROLE=live`) | **Fly.io app `wwf-copybot-live`, `arn`, 24/7, ARMED 2026-07-10** — separate app so the two books never share a process, state file, or failure mode. Trades the signer's **Deposit Wallet** `0x455e…45a1` (pUSD collateral) via the unified SDK (`polymarket-client`) | Same T0 RTDS detection (`RTDS_DETECT=1`) + Alchemy/poll backstops; **own-fill push** via the CLOB user channel (`userws` in the heartbeat) makes in-play pending holds adopt the moment they match — ws events only *trigger* the resolver, `get_order` stays the arbiter (gotcha 17). Paper-parity sizing (4% of equity, $1 venue floor, no price floor, hard caps retired — the **depth gate** is the scaling rail: skip dust books (ask5c<$50), stake ≤10% of 5c depth — the spread>0.08 SKIP was retired 2026-07-19 as a lag-era relic (guard + protected band bound overpay)). Every placement/exit/settle pings Discord. Disarm: `flyctl secrets unset LIVE_CONFIRM -a wwf-copybot-live` |
 | **VALUE bot** (CLOSED 2026-07-19 — [`value/README.md`](value/README.md)) | ~~Fly app `wwf-valuebot`~~ destroyed after the paper verdict: 994 tickets, 1W/993L, 0.075x — today's sub-2¢ asks are fully informed; the 2025-era calibration edge is gone — a hard SILO: own code (`value/valuebot.py`, zero copybot imports), own state/feed, own image, no shared wallet ever | Systematically buys sub-2¢ contracts (the calibration study's one underpriced bucket — [`value/PLAN.md`](value/PLAN.md)); honest FAK fill model, chain-truth settles, $1 tickets, event cap 1. Verdict at ~2k resolved tickets vs a ~1.05% break-even hit rate |
-| **RTDS tape recorder** ([`recorder/README.md`](recorder/README.md)) | **Fly.io app `wwf-recorder`, `arn`, 24/7** — third silo: no repo clone (code in image), no keys, 25GB volume | Records the FULL firehose (~8M events/day): every trade, order MATCH (maker side), comment, crypto tick — dual-socket capture (one socket alone measured 92.9% coverage; the twin covers per-conn silences). **Nothing deletes until the Mac's nightly ingest verifiably commits it** (~5 weeks offline headroom) → `live/rtds.duckdb` (trades + aux) |
+| **RTDS tape recorder** ([`recorder/README.md`](recorder/README.md)) | **Fly.io app `wwf-recorder`, `arn`, 24/7** — third silo: no repo clone (code in image), no keys, 25GB volume | Records the FULL firehose (~8M events/day): every trade, order MATCH (maker side), comment, crypto tick — dual-socket capture (one socket alone measured 92.9% coverage; the twin covers per-conn silences). **Stage-0 warehouse (2026-07-21): the box folds its own segments into row-verified Parquet on the volume; the Mac mirrors + appends into `live/rtds.duckdb` every 15 min** (`com.jaxperro.tape-sync`). Nothing deletes without a verified second copy (gz needs its parquet; parquet needs the Mac's ack) |
 | **Discord digest** (`live/discord_daily.py`) | end of the daily pipeline | one message/day: the sharp list with profile links + 30-day conviction stats (per-trade pings retired 2026-07-04 for PAPER; the LIVE book pings every real placement/exit/settle) |
 | **dashboard** | [jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading) + [jaxperro.com/live](https://jaxperro.com/live) (static, in the `jaxperro` repo) | `/trading` renders the paper book, backtest book and sharp table; `/live` is the REAL MONEY page (reads `live/copybot_live_real.json` — live since 2026-07-10). Both pages share `trading/copybot-section.js` — one renderer, no drift |
 
@@ -78,10 +78,12 @@ for the phased path; Phase 1 code prep is complete, Phase 2 is funding).
  daily.sh: enumerate → collect → skill (5-gate)          wwf-recorder: FULL firehose:
  → conviction+timing gates → sync_floors (pins)          trades + order matches +
  → portfolio.py (bench forward table) → edge.py          comments + ticks (~8M ev/day,
- (bankroll verdict → digest footer) → tape ingest        twin-socket ~99.9% capture) →
- → dashboard → publish → Discord digest                  25GB volume, download-gated
- cache.duckdb: 26M resolved bets, single-writer;         deletes → nightly ingest →
- TRUSTED rows only may score (trust.py)                  rtds.duckdb (trades + aux)
+ (bankroll verdict → digest footer) → tape sync          twin-socket ~99.9% capture)
+ → dashboard → publish → Discord digest                  → fold.py sidecar → verified
+ cache.duckdb: 26M resolved bets, single-writer;         zstd parquet on the volume →
+ TRUSTED rows only may score (trust.py)                  15-min Mac mirror (sync_tape)
+ research/: edge factory over the tape (SILO;            → rtds.duckdb + live/parquet/
+ studies #16/#17, forward_ledger = the verdicts)         (Stage-1 warehouse feedstock)
 ```
 
 ---
@@ -99,6 +101,7 @@ for the phased path; Phase 1 code prep is complete, Phase 2 is funding).
 | **reset the paper book** | **stop the machine FIRST** (`flyctl machine stop <id> --app wwf-copybot`), then write a fresh `new_state()` into `copybot_state.json`, archive `copybot_fills.jsonl`, commit+push, then `flyctl apps restart`. Order matters: the running bot's memory is the book's single writer and its publish flow will re-commit its own book over yours (by design — see gotcha 15). Verify the first heartbeat reads `free $1,000/$1,000 · realized $+0` |
 | **watchdog** | two layers, both automatic: fly.toml's http `/health` check (Fly restarts a dark machine) + `.github/workflows/watchdog.yml` (GitHub-hosted probe every ~30-150 min → Discord alert via the `DISCORD_WEBHOOK_URL` repo secret when 3 probes fail). Test: `gh workflow run watchdog` |
 | **run the daily pipeline manually** | `cd live && bash daily.sh` (launchd runs it 08:00; ~40 min, mostly collect). Never run two at once — the cache is single-writer |
+| **sync the tape now** | `python3 recorder/sync_tape.py` — incremental + idempotent (launchd `com.jaxperro.tape-sync` does it every 15 min anyway); box-side fold health: `flyctl logs -a wwf-recorder --no-tail \| grep '\[fold\]'` |
 | **refresh just the sharp list** | `cd live && python3 conviction_scan.py && python3 validate_timing.py` |
 | **daily Discord digest** | sent by `live/discord_daily.py` at the end of `daily.sh`; webhook = `daily_webhook` in gitignored `config.json` |
 | **go real-money** | **DONE 2026-07-10** — [`LIVE_ROLLOUT.md`](LIVE_ROLLOUT.md) executed through Phase 4 (first fills verified end-to-end); the armed bot runs paper-parity rules (caps retired by user decision, superseding rule 0.6). [`HANDOFF.md`](HANDOFF.md) is the current-state entry point |