From 8edccda58ab026849ebfc9d056b729d558c2e593 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: jaxperro <jaxtorres@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:07:31 -0400
Subject: [PATCH] docs: stage-0 coherence pass across
 README/HANDOFF/recorder/research

- README: recorder row + architecture diagram reflect fold->parquet->
  15-min mirror (and research/ joins the diagram); cheat-sheet gains a
  'sync the tape now' row
- HANDOFF: snapshot dated 2026-07-21, launchd roster (tape-sync +
  research-nightly wait behavior), #15 back in the open queue, tape ops
  line in quick-reference
- recorder/README: ops block (sync_tape + fold health, deploy gap note),
  storage economics (/mo, mirror as Stage-1 feedstock)
- research/README: nightly.sh wait-for-fresh-tape semantics
- live/tape_sharps.json: refreshed 4-day chain-validated screen (the
  smoke run had briefly left a chain-less version)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 HANDOFF.md            |   21 +-
 README.md             |   13 +-
 live/tape_sharps.json | 1297 ++++++++++++++++++++---------------------
 recorder/README.md    |   23 +-
 research/README.md    |    4 +-
 5 files changed, 684 insertions(+), 674 deletions(-)

diff --git a/HANDOFF.md b/HANDOFF.md
index 52106cb9..cb36417a 100644
--- a/HANDOFF.md
+++ b/HANDOFF.md
@@ -23,10 +23,11 @@ REOPENED #4: the redeemer's phantom-cash BOOBY TRAP is fixed + proven
 Builder API Key (SDK gasless relay) the runtime bot deliberately lacks —
 LOW urgency, the platform auto-redeems winners itself. auto_redeem OFF.
 Open now: #1 Signal A, #2 tape research, #4 redeem builder-key, #13 Fri
-bench, #14 edge verdict, #16 surge momentum (forward window OPEN), #17
-oracle fair value (accumulating, nothing frozen). #18 (empty-cond copies
-unsettleable) closed same day: RTDS seed enrichment + falsy-cond repair
-pass + 1h alarm.
+bench, #14 edge verdict, #15 tape-pull batching (Stage-0 fold+mirror
+superseded the bulk path; per-file sftp batching still worth it), #16
+surge momentum (forward window OPEN), #17 oracle fair value (accumulating,
+nothing frozen). #18 (empty-cond copies unsettleable) closed same day:
+RTDS seed enrichment + falsy-cond repair pass + 1h alarm.
 
 ## Operating boundary (user, 2026-07-13 — standing)
 **Full autonomy on the bots**; the real-money bot **stays ARMED**. Never
@@ -37,7 +38,7 @@ min_order_usd $1 = venue reality). If something looks genuinely dangerous,
 DISARM (`flyctl secrets unset LIVE_CONFIRM -a wwf-copybot-live`) rather than
 push through.
 
-## Snapshot (2026-07-19)
+## Snapshot (2026-07-21)
 - **wwf-copybot-live** (REAL, ARMED): ~$62 equity ($66.42 contributed,
   realized −$12.17 lifetime — day-one incident + honest recognitions),
   6-wallet Set E rev 4, 4% of working equity/bet, alarm-free after the
@@ -75,13 +76,17 @@ push through.
   #16/#17 forward thresholds (in their issues).
 - Dashboards: jaxperro.com/{trading,live,value} · daily pipeline on the Mac
   at 08:00 (launchd, lockfile) — floors, bench forward table, edge row,
-  tape ingest, Discord digest · research nightly at 09:15
-  (com.jaxperro.research-nightly → research/nightly.sh, self-commits the
-  forward ledger; remove with `launchctl unload`).
+  tape sync, Discord digest · tape mirror every 15 min
+  (com.jaxperro.tape-sync → recorder/sync_tape.py) · research nightly
+  fires 09:15 then WAITS for fresh tape (com.jaxperro.research-nightly →
+  research/nightly.sh, self-commits the forward ledger). All launchd agents
+  removable with `launchctl unload ~/Library/LaunchAgents/<label>.plist`.
 
 ## Ops quick-reference
 - Follow-set change: edit live/copybot.paper.json → `./live/deploy_bot.sh`;
   mirror config.live.example.json (nothing auto-writes it) + backtest.json.
+- Tape now: `python3 recorder/sync_tape.py` (launchd does it every 15 min);
+  box-side fold health: `flyctl logs -a wwf-recorder` (grep `[fold]`).
 - State surgery: stop the machine, **watch heartbeats actually CEASE**
   (gotcha 15c — and the boot-id guard now makes a zombie writer yield),
   pull → edit → push → start → verify the first heartbeat.
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index a4421939..138dd69d 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ Three deployed pieces + one static dashboard:
 | **copybot worker** (`copybot.py` via `host/start.sh`) | **Fly.io app `wwf-copybot`, region `arn` (Stockholm), 24/7** — migrated off Railway 2026-07-06: Railway ran it in a US region, which Polymarket's IP geoblock would 403 the moment orders got real; Stockholm is unrestricted AND ~25ms from the CLOB's eu-west-2 primaries. Every boot self-checks the geo-gate (`host/geocheck.py`) and verifies the clone against `git ls-remote` (stale-replica guard) | **T0 = the RTDS trade stream** (gotcha 18): every platform trade, wallet-attributed, **~1s detection** (measured p50 0.8s over 22k msgs), silent-stale guard force-reconnects a quiet socket. Backstops: the Alchemy address-activity webhook (~3s, `POST /alchemy`, signature-verified — **T0b chain seed** 2026-07-14: its tx hashes decode straight from the receipt's OrderFilled logs when the data-api indexer lags, so RTDS-silent markets still copy at push speed), a 5-min backstop poll, and the reconcile janitor. Per-wallet **trade cursor** paginates the activity feed so clip bursts can't scroll past a fetch (H3). 60s heartbeat settles/publishes; paper-copies with real fees/lag/slippage AND live-FAK thin-book reality (**paper FAK parity** 2026-07-16: a quote with no ask inside the protected band books a MISS, not a fill — keeps the live-vs-paper per-signal ratio honest; `live/edge.py` turns it into the daily bankroll-decision verdict in `history/edge.csv` + the Discord digest footer); commits its book back to the repo |
 | **REAL-MONEY worker** (same code, `COPYBOT_ROLE=live`) | **Fly.io app `wwf-copybot-live`, `arn`, 24/7, ARMED 2026-07-10** — separate app so the two books never share a process, state file, or failure mode. Trades the signer's **Deposit Wallet** `0x455e…45a1` (pUSD collateral) via the unified SDK (`polymarket-client`) | Same T0 RTDS detection (`RTDS_DETECT=1`) + Alchemy/poll backstops; **own-fill push** via the CLOB user channel (`userws` in the heartbeat) makes in-play pending holds adopt the moment they match — ws events only *trigger* the resolver, `get_order` stays the arbiter (gotcha 17). Paper-parity sizing (4% of equity, $1 venue floor, no price floor, hard caps retired — the **depth gate** is the scaling rail: skip dust books (ask5c<$50), stake ≤10% of 5c depth — the spread>0.08 SKIP was retired 2026-07-19 as a lag-era relic (guard + protected band bound overpay)). Every placement/exit/settle pings Discord. Disarm: `flyctl secrets unset LIVE_CONFIRM -a wwf-copybot-live` |
 | **VALUE bot** (CLOSED 2026-07-19 — [`value/README.md`](value/README.md)) | ~~Fly app `wwf-valuebot`~~ destroyed after the paper verdict: 994 tickets, 1W/993L, 0.075x — today's sub-2¢ asks are fully informed; the 2025-era calibration edge is gone — a hard SILO: own code (`value/valuebot.py`, zero copybot imports), own state/feed, own image, no shared wallet ever | Systematically buys sub-2¢ contracts (the calibration study's one underpriced bucket — [`value/PLAN.md`](value/PLAN.md)); honest FAK fill model, chain-truth settles, $1 tickets, event cap 1. Verdict at ~2k resolved tickets vs a ~1.05% break-even hit rate |
-| **RTDS tape recorder** ([`recorder/README.md`](recorder/README.md)) | **Fly.io app `wwf-recorder`, `arn`, 24/7** — third silo: no repo clone (code in image), no keys, 25GB volume | Records the FULL firehose (~8M events/day): every trade, order MATCH (maker side), comment, crypto tick — dual-socket capture (one socket alone measured 92.9% coverage; the twin covers per-conn silences). **Nothing deletes until the Mac's nightly ingest verifiably commits it** (~5 weeks offline headroom) → `live/rtds.duckdb` (trades + aux) |
+| **RTDS tape recorder** ([`recorder/README.md`](recorder/README.md)) | **Fly.io app `wwf-recorder`, `arn`, 24/7** — third silo: no repo clone (code in image), no keys, 25GB volume | Records the FULL firehose (~8M events/day): every trade, order MATCH (maker side), comment, crypto tick — dual-socket capture (one socket alone measured 92.9% coverage; the twin covers per-conn silences). **Stage-0 warehouse (2026-07-21): the box folds its own segments into row-verified Parquet on the volume; the Mac mirrors + appends into `live/rtds.duckdb` every 15 min** (`com.jaxperro.tape-sync`). Nothing deletes without a verified second copy (gz needs its parquet; parquet needs the Mac's ack) |
 | **Discord digest** (`live/discord_daily.py`) | end of the daily pipeline | one message/day: the sharp list with profile links + 30-day conviction stats (per-trade pings retired 2026-07-04 for PAPER; the LIVE book pings every real placement/exit/settle) |
 | **dashboard** | [jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading) + [jaxperro.com/live](https://jaxperro.com/live) (static, in the `jaxperro` repo) | `/trading` renders the paper book, backtest book and sharp table; `/live` is the REAL MONEY page (reads `live/copybot_live_real.json` — live since 2026-07-10). Both pages share `trading/copybot-section.js` — one renderer, no drift |
 
@@ -78,10 +78,12 @@ for the phased path; Phase 1 code prep is complete, Phase 2 is funding).
  daily.sh: enumerate → collect → skill (5-gate)          wwf-recorder: FULL firehose:
  → conviction+timing gates → sync_floors (pins)          trades + order matches +
  → portfolio.py (bench forward table) → edge.py          comments + ticks (~8M ev/day,
- (bankroll verdict → digest footer) → tape ingest        twin-socket ~99.9% capture) →
- → dashboard → publish → Discord digest                  25GB volume, download-gated
- cache.duckdb: 26M resolved bets, single-writer;         deletes → nightly ingest →
- TRUSTED rows only may score (trust.py)                  rtds.duckdb (trades + aux)
+ (bankroll verdict → digest footer) → tape sync          twin-socket ~99.9% capture)
+ → dashboard → publish → Discord digest                  → fold.py sidecar → verified
+ cache.duckdb: 26M resolved bets, single-writer;         zstd parquet on the volume →
+ TRUSTED rows only may score (trust.py)                  15-min Mac mirror (sync_tape)
+ research/: edge factory over the tape (SILO;            → rtds.duckdb + live/parquet/
+ studies #16/#17, forward_ledger = the verdicts)         (Stage-1 warehouse feedstock)
 ```
 
 ---
@@ -99,6 +101,7 @@ for the phased path; Phase 1 code prep is complete, Phase 2 is funding).
 | **reset the paper book** | **stop the machine FIRST** (`flyctl machine stop <id> --app wwf-copybot`), then write a fresh `new_state()` into `copybot_state.json`, archive `copybot_fills.jsonl`, commit+push, then `flyctl apps restart`. Order matters: the running bot's memory is the book's single writer and its publish flow will re-commit its own book over yours (by design — see gotcha 15). Verify the first heartbeat reads `free $1,000/$1,000 · realized $+0` |
 | **watchdog** | two layers, both automatic: fly.toml's http `/health` check (Fly restarts a dark machine) + `.github/workflows/watchdog.yml` (GitHub-hosted probe every ~30-150 min → Discord alert via the `DISCORD_WEBHOOK_URL` repo secret when 3 probes fail). Test: `gh workflow run watchdog` |
 | **run the daily pipeline manually** | `cd live && bash daily.sh` (launchd runs it 08:00; ~40 min, mostly collect). Never run two at once — the cache is single-writer |
+| **sync the tape now** | `python3 recorder/sync_tape.py` — incremental + idempotent (launchd `com.jaxperro.tape-sync` does it every 15 min anyway); box-side fold health: `flyctl logs -a wwf-recorder --no-tail \| grep '\[fold\]'` |
 | **refresh just the sharp list** | `cd live && python3 conviction_scan.py && python3 validate_timing.py` |
 | **daily Discord digest** | sent by `live/discord_daily.py` at the end of `daily.sh`; webhook = `daily_webhook` in gitignored `config.json` |
 | **go real-money** | **DONE 2026-07-10** — [`LIVE_ROLLOUT.md`](LIVE_ROLLOUT.md) executed through Phase 4 (first fills verified end-to-end); the armed bot runs paper-parity rules (caps retired by user decision, superseding rule 0.6). [`HANDOFF.md`](HANDOFF.md) is the current-state entry point |
diff --git a/live/tape_sharps.json b/live/tape_sharps.json
index a993671f..94b70c03 100644
--- a/live/tape_sharps.json
+++ b/live/tape_sharps.json
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
- "tape_end": 1784566799.0,
+ "tape_end": 1784649573.0,
  "params": {
   "min_bets": 8,
   "win_t": 0.97,
@@ -14,722 +14,697 @@
  },
  "candidates": [
   {
-   "wallet": "0x37c1ff27d21b08d1cae9f38453b895eae2a78de1",
-   "n": 64,
-   "wins": 52,
-   "exp_wins": 31.17269217903302,
-   "var_sum": 14.500998511496402,
-   "pnl": 8582.566326,
-   "notional": 11141.435454999999,
-   "avg_p": 0.48707331529739095,
-   "avg_fills": 1.1875,
-   "med_bet": 151.335,
+   "wallet": "0x7547479d43f4b52d892a6f2254050eea50edd158",
+   "n": 60,
+   "wins": 48,
+   "exp_wins": 23.693066345253467,
+   "var_sum": 14.04994617215601,
+   "pnl": 9938.938178999999,
+   "notional": 9915.272067,
+   "avg_p": 0.39488443908755777,
+   "avg_fills": 3.716666666666667,
+   "med_bet": 186.2101245,
    "top_niche": "sports",
-   "niches": 3,
-   "first_seen": 1784308249.0,
-   "tape_first": 1784308249.0,
-   "z": 5.469330678445668,
-   "win_pct": 81.25,
-   "n_chain": 64,
-   "wins_chain": 52,
-   "pnl_chain": 8582.57,
+   "niches": 2,
+   "first_seen": 1784311152.0,
+   "tape_first": 1784307468.0,
+   "z": 6.484744140405835,
+   "win_pct": 80.0,
+   "n_chain": 60,
+   "wins_chain": 48,
+   "pnl_chain": 9938.94,
    "flips": 0,
-   "z_chain": 5.47,
-   "pm_name": "sslavaga"
-  },
-  {
-   "wallet": "0x9ab303a355bf22a29e485d98fb88d140abb43044",
-   "n": 67,
-   "wins": 55,
-   "exp_wins": 34.72784570812084,
-   "var_sum": 14.286015857809733,
-   "pnl": 7967.576649999998,
-   "notional": 12456.08335,
-   "avg_p": 0.5183260553450871,
-   "avg_fills": 4.656716417910448,
-   "med_bet": 145.97359999999998,
-   "top_niche": "esports",
-   "niches": 3,
-   "first_seen": 1784307620.0,
-   "tape_first": 1784307620.0,
-   "z": 5.363451268529734,
-   "win_pct": 82.08955223880596,
-   "n_chain": 67,
-   "wins_chain": 55,
-   "pnl_chain": 7967.58,
-   "flips": 0,
-   "z_chain": 5.36,
-   "pm_name": "arahbo"
+   "z_chain": 6.48
   },
   {
    "wallet": "0x717990979ff84a32d47205a7eede94317aab7d79",
-   "n": 70,
-   "wins": 55,
-   "exp_wins": 33.01667519735171,
-   "var_sum": 17.13384599158028,
-   "pnl": 3751.7752760000008,
-   "notional": 5546.706666000001,
-   "avg_p": 0.47166678853359584,
-   "avg_fills": 1.7142857142857142,
-   "med_bet": 64.294399,
+   "n": 85,
+   "wins": 68,
+   "exp_wins": 39.818750215743606,
+   "var_sum": 20.782323837708326,
+   "pnl": 5168.979203000001,
+   "notional": 6819.307850000001,
+   "avg_p": 0.46845588489110124,
+   "avg_fills": 1.7411764705882353,
+   "med_bet": 65.988799,
    "top_niche": "sports",
    "niches": 4,
    "first_seen": 1784310711.0,
    "tape_first": 1784308163.0,
-   "z": 5.310873379228681,
-   "win_pct": 78.57142857142857,
-   "n_chain": 70,
-   "wins_chain": 55,
-   "pnl_chain": 3751.78,
+   "z": 6.181775021729989,
+   "win_pct": 80.0,
+   "n_chain": 85,
+   "wins_chain": 68,
+   "pnl_chain": 5168.98,
    "flips": 0,
-   "z_chain": 5.31,
-   "pm_name": "Maryyyyyy"
-  },
-  {
-   "wallet": "0x3d3bbf5d4855ea12fbc610b4c2b49438ace728bd",
-   "n": 87,
-   "wins": 64,
-   "exp_wins": 41.482434545447006,
-   "var_sum": 19.98003739898597,
-   "pnl": 2806.989571573092,
-   "notional": 5424.999914,
-   "avg_p": 0.47680959247640237,
-   "avg_fills": 1.0459770114942528,
-   "med_bet": 62.999998999999995,
-   "top_niche": "sports",
-   "niches": 2,
-   "first_seen": 1784307568.0,
-   "tape_first": 1784307508.0,
-   "z": 5.037595419763916,
-   "win_pct": 73.5632183908046,
-   "n_chain": 87,
-   "wins_chain": 64,
-   "pnl_chain": 2806.99,
-   "flips": 0,
-   "z_chain": 5.04,
-   "pm_name": "0x3d3BBF5d4855EA12fbC610b4c2b49438AcE728bD-1781226826895"
+   "z_chain": 6.18
   },
   {
    "wallet": "0x58a84177426c8be517141558baaac252153ba3c7",
-   "n": 28,
-   "wins": 28,
-   "exp_wins": 15.030000032620904,
-   "var_sum": 6.649099997464278,
-   "pnl": 1482.0280059999998,
-   "notional": 1775.955744,
-   "avg_p": 0.5367857154507466,
-   "avg_fills": 2.4642857142857144,
+   "n": 38,
+   "wins": 38,
+   "exp_wins": 20.140000035454285,
+   "var_sum": 8.987199996784268,
+   "pnl": 2068.8272049999996,
+   "notional": 2389.154438,
+   "avg_p": 0.5300000009330075,
+   "avg_fills": 2.263157894736842,
    "med_bet": 67.2,
    "top_niche": "sports",
    "niches": 1,
    "first_seen": 1784309512.0,
    "tape_first": 1784309181.0,
-   "z": 5.029890640492476,
+   "z": 5.957571325126359,
    "win_pct": 100.0,
-   "n_chain": 28,
-   "wins_chain": 28,
-   "pnl_chain": 1482.03,
+   "n_chain": 38,
+   "wins_chain": 38,
+   "pnl_chain": 2068.83,
    "flips": 0,
-   "z_chain": 5.03,
-   "pm_name": "dadadaji"
+   "z_chain": 5.96
   },
   {
-   "wallet": "0x80d8dddcfdc075eb70f6d2d774a27bfb255ab703",
-   "n": 86,
-   "wins": 68,
-   "exp_wins": 45.94762000395101,
-   "var_sum": 19.489362345925976,
-   "pnl": 4559.373893,
-   "notional": 11881.654993,
-   "avg_p": 0.5342746512087326,
-   "avg_fills": 2.2906976744186047,
-   "med_bet": 118.5975,
+   "wallet": "0x37c1ff27d21b08d1cae9f38453b895eae2a78de1",
+   "n": 78,
+   "wins": 62,
+   "exp_wins": 37.3137883389459,
+   "var_sum": 17.77442142179656,
+   "pnl": 10363.747878999999,
+   "notional": 13172.661446,
+   "avg_p": 0.47838190178135764,
+   "avg_fills": 1.1794871794871795,
+   "med_bet": 141.97000000000003,
    "top_niche": "sports",
    "niches": 4,
-   "first_seen": 1784309051.0,
-   "tape_first": 1784307800.0,
-   "z": 4.995243373805773,
-   "win_pct": 79.06976744186046,
-   "n_chain": 86,
-   "wins_chain": 68,
-   "pnl_chain": 4559.37,
+   "first_seen": 1784308249.0,
+   "tape_first": 1784308249.0,
+   "z": 5.855401935210628,
+   "win_pct": 79.48717948717949,
+   "n_chain": 78,
+   "wins_chain": 62,
+   "pnl_chain": 10363.75,
    "flips": 0,
-   "z_chain": 5.0,
-   "pm_name": "888ball"
-  },
-  {
-   "wallet": "0x00093a689df7fb09a137f9db7102d9e967c85497",
-   "n": 77,
-   "wins": 73,
-   "exp_wins": 54.45329227980554,
-   "var_sum": 13.963052987935505,
-   "pnl": 2140.0118469999998,
-   "notional": 5036.925661,
-   "avg_p": 0.7071856140234486,
-   "avg_fills": 4.285714285714286,
-   "med_bet": 66.19998799999999,
-   "top_niche": "sports",
-   "niches": 2,
-   "first_seen": 1784310610.0,
-   "tape_first": 1784307375.0,
-   "z": 4.9633698113142515,
-   "win_pct": 94.8051948051948,
-   "n_chain": 77,
-   "wins_chain": 73,
-   "pnl_chain": 2140.01,
-   "flips": 0,
-   "z_chain": 4.96,
-   "pm_name": "AlligatorMarket"
-  },
-  {
-   "wallet": "0x81a994924efdbed20c3d360bbea3913b0b6bdf08",
-   "n": 60,
-   "wins": 53,
-   "exp_wins": 35.140117684949715,
-   "var_sum": 13.244879464928484,
-   "pnl": 10420.120503459717,
-   "notional": 18352.741468999993,
-   "avg_p": 0.5856686280824952,
-   "avg_fills": 2.7,
-   "med_bet": 242.35000000000002,
-   "top_niche": "sports",
-   "niches": 3,
-   "first_seen": 1784310333.0,
-   "tape_first": 1784308147.0,
-   "z": 4.907435357973403,
-   "win_pct": 88.33333333333333,
-   "n_chain": 60,
-   "wins_chain": 53,
-   "pnl_chain": 10420.12,
-   "flips": 0,
-   "z_chain": 4.91,
-   "pm_name": "zishuai"
-  },
-  {
-   "wallet": "0x7547479d43f4b52d892a6f2254050eea50edd158",
-   "n": 35,
-   "wins": 28,
-   "exp_wins": 13.945807466614802,
-   "var_sum": 8.259131917797692,
-   "pnl": 4783.999645,
-   "notional": 5594.672115,
-   "avg_p": 0.3984516419032801,
-   "avg_fills": 3.657142857142857,
-   "med_bet": 177.235712,
-   "top_niche": "sports",
-   "niches": 1,
-   "first_seen": 1784311152.0,
-   "tape_first": 1784307468.0,
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+   "med_bet": 199.99999899999997,
    "top_niche": "esports",
    "niches": 3,
    "first_seen": 1784308621.0,
    "tape_first": 1784308621.0,
-   "z": -0.2485998347929401,
-   "win_pct": 57.142857142857146
-  },
-  {
-   "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228",
-   "n": 17,
-   "wins": 9,
-   "exp_wins": 9.99016755243394,
-   "var_sum": 2.956545338585819,
-   "pnl": -1909.4314810698643,
-   "notional": 19454.826313999998,
-   "avg_p": 0.5876569148490552,
-   "avg_fills": 9.764705882352942,
-   "med_bet": 614.3456199999999,
-   "top_niche": "other",
-   "niches": 2,
-   "first_seen": 1784387047.0,
-   "tape_first": 1784311232.0,
-   "z": -0.5758593449029813,
-   "win_pct": 52.94117647058823
-  },
-  {
-   "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea",
-   "n": 8,
-   "wins": 3,
-   "exp_wins": 4.210769706246229,
-   "var_sum": 1.9692381195290396,
-   "pnl": 2285.6253119999997,
-   "notional": 13711.706415,
-   "avg_p": 0.5263462132807786,
-   "avg_fills": 5.0,
-   "med_bet": 939.4969729999999,
-   "top_niche": "esports",
-   "niches": 2,
-   "first_seen": 1784329658.0,
-   "tape_first": 1784308119.0,
-   "z": -0.862804555083645,
-   "win_pct": 37.5
+   "z": -0.04504445979979888,
+   "win_pct": 60.0
   },
   {
    "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
-   "n": 16,
-   "wins": 5,
-   "exp_wins": 6.660000000288585,
-   "var_sum": 3.6314000001020643,
-   "pnl": -2671.6812069999996,
-   "notional": 9199.237341,
-   "avg_p": 0.4162500000180366,
-   "avg_fills": 1.6875,
+   "n": 18,
+   "wins": 7,
+   "exp_wins": 7.739882395266125,
+   "var_sum": 4.031357648463038,
+   "pnl": -1576.697009,
+   "notional": 10684.925357,
+   "avg_p": 0.42999346640367364,
+   "avg_fills": 1.8333333333333333,
    "med_bet": 556.75,
    "top_niche": "esports",
    "niches": 2,
    "first_seen": 1784369512.0,
    "tape_first": 1784369512.0,
-   "z": -0.8711060770398212,
-   "win_pct": 31.25
+   "z": -0.3684996072797179,
+   "win_pct": 38.888888888888886
+  },
+  {
+   "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228",
+   "n": 23,
+   "wins": 11,
+   "exp_wins": 12.873559950663399,
+   "var_sum": 3.876861089040026,
+   "pnl": -2224.2110215194334,
+   "notional": 20848.191354000002,
+   "avg_p": 0.5597199978549304,
+   "avg_fills": 8.826086956521738,
+   "med_bet": 400.467664,
+   "top_niche": "other",
+   "niches": 2,
+   "first_seen": 1784313147.0,
+   "tape_first": 1784311232.0,
+   "z": -0.9515409306016747,
+   "win_pct": 47.82608695652174
+  },
+  {
+   "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea",
+   "n": 9,
+   "wins": 3,
+   "exp_wins": 4.530729994751484,
+   "var_sum": 2.1868238218139284,
+   "pnl": 1733.239782999999,
+   "notional": 14264.091944000002,
+   "avg_p": 0.503414443861276,
+   "avg_fills": 5.666666666666667,
+   "med_bet": 898.9999999999999,
+   "top_niche": "esports",
+   "niches": 2,
+   "first_seen": 1784329658.0,
+   "tape_first": 1784308119.0,
+   "z": -1.035122370041198,
+   "win_pct": 33.333333333333336
   }
  ],
- "screened": 2360
+ "screened": 2899
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/recorder/README.md b/recorder/README.md
index 5716064b..66ece5fc 100644
--- a/recorder/README.md
+++ b/recorder/README.md
@@ -2,10 +2,11 @@
 
 Third silo: records **everything Polymarket's real-time socket emits** —
 every trade, every order match (the maker side of each fill), every market
-comment, every crypto price tick — into a durable, downloadable archive.
-~8M events/day, ~$5-6/month all-in. No keys, no repo clone (code baked into
-the image), no shared anything with the trading bots: a recorder crash can
-never touch trading, a bot deploy can never gap the tape.
+comment, every crypto price tick — into a durable, queryable archive.
+~8M events/day, ~$10/month all-in (1GB VM + volume). No keys, no repo
+clone (code baked into the image), no shared anything with the trading
+bots: a recorder crash can never touch trading, a bot deploy can never gap
+the tape.
 
 ## Capture design (why it's ~complete)
 
@@ -59,12 +60,18 @@ name) as sync_tape, so the two can never double-insert.
 ## Ops
 
 ```bash
-flyctl logs -a wwf-recorder --no-tail          # "tape: N trades/min · aux …"
-python3 recorder/ingest.py                     # manual pull any time
+flyctl logs -a wwf-recorder --no-tail          # capture: "tape: N trades/min"
+flyctl logs -a wwf-recorder --no-tail | grep '\[fold\]'   # fold health
+python3 recorder/sync_tape.py                  # manual mirror pull any time
+                                               # (launchd does it every 15 min)
 flyctl deploy --remote-only -c fly.recorder.toml -a wwf-recorder --ha=false
                                                # ANY code change = image rebuild
+                                               # (~30-60s capture gap — deploy rarely)
 flyctl ssh console -a wwf-recorder -C "df -h /data"   # volume headroom
 ```
 
-Storage: rtds.duckdb grows ~0.5-0.8GB/day on the Mac (~20GB/mo; 1.4TB free
-as of 2026-07-19 — revisit around the ~100GB mark: Parquet-spool old months).
+Storage: parquet ~250-400MB/day on both the volume and the Mac mirror
+(`live/parquet/`); rtds.duckdb adds ~0.5-0.8GB/day on the Mac. The mirror
+IS the Stage-1 warehouse feedstock (MotherDuck/ClickHouse = a load job,
+not a migration); if local disk ever matters, old mirror partitions can be
+cold-stored — they are immutable and manifest-indexed.
diff --git a/research/README.md b/research/README.md
index 8caf8003..d92b100d 100644
--- a/research/README.md
+++ b/research/README.md
@@ -28,4 +28,6 @@ Layout:
   requote.py       crater→requote timing measurement (retry tuning)
   forward.py       scores frozen studies on new tape days → forward_ledger.jsonl
   params/          frozen study parameters (committed = frozen)
-  nightly.sh       manual/launchd runner (separate from daily.sh)
+  nightly.sh       launchd runner (fires 09:15, then WAITS for fresh tape —
+                   Stage 0 keeps the tape ~15-min fresh whenever the Mac is
+                   awake; deadline 8h, then scores anyway and logs staleness)