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README: document the full live system (Discord watcher + paper tracker)

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Brings the README current with the deployed pieces: the push-based Discord
watcher and the live $1,000 client-side paper portfolio at jaxperro.com/trading
(enter-on-entry, hold-to-resolution, Liquid/Invested/Realized/Missed). Updates
the pipeline diagram and tools table; notes the capital-constraint finding the
tracker surfaced.
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jaxperro
2026-06-13 21:16:10 -04:00
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# 🏆 Winning Wallet Finder
Find Polymarket wallets with a **real, statistically-verifiable edge**, test
whether copying them actually makes money, and **get pinged the moment they
trade**.
whether copying them actually makes money, **get pinged the moment they trade**,
and watch a **live $1,000 paper portfolio** follow them in real time.
This started as "copy the smart money." Along the way we tested — and ruled out
— six systematic public-data strategies, and found that the *only* signal that
@@ -49,12 +49,12 @@ Two refinements separate signal from noise:
## How the pieces fit
```
data layer detection hunting validation live
────────── ───────── ─────── ────────── ────
smart_money.py ──▶ insider.py ──▶ hunt.py / huntwide.py ─▶ copyback.py / oos.py webhook_receiver.py
(Polymarket API, (z-score, timing, (sweep markets, (does copying them (Alchemy webhook →
true win rate) freshness, funding surface edge wallets) actually pay? in- & Discord ping on
clustering) out-of-sample) every trade)
data layer detection hunting validation live system
────────── ───────── ─────── ────────── ───────────
smart_money.py ─▶ insider.py ──▶ hunt.py / huntwide ▶ copyback / oos.py ▶ webhook_receiver.py ─▶ Discord ping
(Polymarket API, (z-score, timing, (sweep markets, (does copying them (Alchemy webhook)
true win rate) freshness, funding surface edge actually pay? in- & trading/ (paper) ────▶ live $1k
clustering) wallets) out-of-sample) jaxperro.com/trading portfolio
```
| File | Role |
@@ -66,6 +66,8 @@ Two refinements separate signal from noise:
| `copyback.py` | Backtest: copy edge wallets' entries from a date, weighted, compounding. |
| `oos.py` | **Out-of-sample test** — select wallets on pre-period data, copy forward. The honesty gate. |
| `webhook_receiver.py` | Push-based live watcher: Alchemy on-chain webhook → enrich → Discord. |
| `watch.json` | The tracked wallet set + edge weights (shared by the watcher and the tracker). |
| paper tracker | Client-side `$1,000` running portfolio → [jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading) (page lives in the personal site repo). |
| `archive/` | The six strategies that didn't work, kept for reference ([details](archive/README.md)). |
---
@@ -114,22 +116,47 @@ python3 smart_money.py # dashboard at http://localhost:8899
---
## Live watcher — get pinged on every trade
## The live system
Push-based (no polling). The instant a tracked wallet's proxy transacts on
Polygon (~2–5s), Alchemy POSTs `webhook_receiver.py`, which enriches the trade
via the data-API and pings Discord: `🟢 Famecesgoal BUY Yes @ 0.34 ($120) — <market>`.
Two always-on pieces, both running on near-zero infrastructure cost. The wallets
they track live in `watch.json` (currently the **4 sharpest, followable**
wallets — high z, not bots, not in-game — re-weighted by z).
### 1. Discord watcher — pinged on every trade (`webhook_receiver.py`)
Push-based, no polling. The instant a tracked wallet's proxy transacts on
Polygon (~2–5s), Alchemy POSTs the receiver, which enriches the trade via the
data-API and pings Discord: `🟢 Famecesgoal BUY Yes @ 0.34 ($120) — <market>`.
It's a tiny stdlib HTTP server that idles at ~zero CPU between trades.
1. **Discord webhook** → set `DISCORD_WEBHOOK` env (or `config.json`).
2. **Deploy** the receiver to an always-on host (Railway / Fly / a $5 VPS — *not*
Render free, it sleeps). `Procfile` included; binds to `$PORT`.
Render free, it sleeps). `Procfile`, `requirements.txt`, `nixpacks.toml`
included; binds to `$PORT`, exposes `/alchemy` (POST) and `/health` (GET).
3. **Alchemy** → create an *Address Activity* webhook (Polygon mainnet), add the
`watch.json` addresses, point it at `https://your-host/alchemy`, and set the
signing key as `ALCHEMY_SIGNING_KEY`.
`watch.json` addresses, point it at `https://your-host/alchemy`, set the
signing key as `ALCHEMY_SIGNING_KEY` (turns on HMAC verification).
Keep the two wallet lists in sync: Alchemy's address list (what *triggers*) and
`watch.json` (what *names* the alert).
### 2. Live paper portfolio — `trading/` → [jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading)
A **$1,000 paper account that behaves like real money**: it replays every
watched-wallet trade since inception, **enters when they enter** (if there's
cash), holds each bet **to resolution**, then settles (win → payout, loss → $0)
and frees the cash. Shows **Liquid** (cash), **Invested** (open bets marked to
market), **Realized** (settled P&L), a **Current Bets** table with per-bet entry
/ mark / P&L / *settle date*, and — crucially — **Missed P&L**: the profit left
on the table from trades skipped because the bankroll was fully deployed (the
real cost of a small account). It runs **100% client-side** off Polymarket's
public API (CORS-open) — zero backend, zero added cost.
> **What the tracker taught us:** $1,000 across many hyperactive wallets gets
> fully deployed almost instantly — you can follow only a few percent of their
> trades. Concentrating on a handful of high-conviction wallets with bigger
> stakes is the only way a small bankroll meaningfully mirrors them.
---
## The honest verdict