research: surgebot A2 — measurement arm relaunch (every-trigger $100 FAKs + attempts stream + offline virtual-book replay)

v1's cash-gated book halted at its pre-registered -50% line; post-mortem
showed the ~2% cash-gated subsample was adversely selected (-$9/fill vs
+$41/fill full-signal, same day). A2 samples every trigger and replays
bankroll specs offline (surge_book_replay.py -> surge_book.json). Signal
semantics verbatim; grades to surge_meas_ledger.jsonl. See #19.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

research/grade_surge.py

@@ -1,12 +1,15 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env python3
-"""Nightly chain-truth grading of the surge paper harness (wwf-surgebot).
+"""Nightly chain-truth grading of the surge measurement harness (A2).
 
-Pulls /data/surge_state.json off the box (read-only — never writes back),
-re-grades every settled entry with CTF payout vectors (payouts.truth; the
-harness's provisional CLOB winner flags lie on operator-resolved markets,
-[[polymarket-resolution-truth]]), and appends one row per settle to
-research/surge_paper_ledger.jsonl (keyed asset+ts, idempotent). Also emits
-the running paper-book summary the #16 sprint decision reads."""
+Pulls /data/surge2_state.json AND /data/surge_attempts.jsonl off the box
+(read-only — never writes back), re-grades every settled entry with CTF
+payout vectors (payouts.truth; provisional CLOB winner flags lie on
+operator-resolved markets), and appends one row per settle to
+research/surge_meas_ledger.jsonl (keyed asset+ts, idempotent). The pulled
+copies are KEPT on disk for surge_book_replay.py (virtual bankroll specs).
+
+v1 history is closed: surge_paper_ledger.jsonl and /data/surge_state.json
+are frozen audit artifacts of the halted cash-gated book (2026-07-22)."""
 import json
 import os
 import shutil
@@ -14,33 +17,53 @@ import subprocess
 import sys
 
 HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-LEDGER = os.path.join(HERE, "surge_paper_ledger.jsonl")
-TMP = os.path.join(HERE, ".surge_state.pull.json")
+LEDGER = os.path.join(HERE, "surge_meas_ledger.jsonl")
+STATE_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".surge2_state.pull.json")
+ATT_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".surge_attempts.pull.jsonl")
 FLYCTL = shutil.which("flyctl") or "/opt/homebrew/bin/flyctl"
 
 
+def sftp(remote, local):
+    subprocess.run([FLYCTL, "ssh", "sftp", "get", remote, local + ".new",
+                    "-a", "wwf-surgebot"], capture_output=True,
+                   timeout=600, stdin=subprocess.DEVNULL)
+    if os.path.exists(local + ".new") and os.path.getsize(local + ".new") > 0:
+        os.replace(local + ".new", local)   # keep last good pull on failure
+        return True
+    try:
+        os.remove(local + ".new")
+    except FileNotFoundError:
+        pass
+    return False
+
+
 def main():
-    r = subprocess.run([FLYCTL, "ssh", "sftp", "get", "/data/surge_state.json",
-                        TMP, "-a", "wwf-surgebot"], capture_output=True,
-                       timeout=300, stdin=subprocess.DEVNULL)
-    if not os.path.exists(TMP) or os.path.getsize(TMP) == 0:
+    ok = sftp("/data/surge2_state.json", STATE_PULL)
+    sftp("/data/surge_attempts.jsonl", ATT_PULL)
+    if not ok:
         print("[grade_surge] box unreachable or no state yet — skip")
         return 0
-    st = json.load(open(TMP))
-    os.remove(TMP)
+    st = json.load(open(STATE_PULL))
     sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(HERE, "..", "live"))
     import payouts
     have = set()
+    ledger_rows = 0
     try:
         for ln in open(LEDGER):
             try:
                 d = json.loads(ln)
                 have.add((d["asset"], d["ts"]))
+                ledger_rows += 1
             except Exception:
                 pass
     except FileNotFoundError:
         pass
     settled = st.get("settled", [])
+    total_settles = st.get("counters", {}).get("settled_total", 0)
+    if total_settles > ledger_rows + len(settled):
+        print(f"[grade_surge] ⚠ TAPE LOSS: {total_settles} lifetime settles "
+              f"but only {ledger_rows} graded + {len(settled)} in state — "
+              f"raise SETTLED_TRIM or grade more often")
     new = [s for s in settled if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in have]
     if new:
         payouts.ensure(sorted({s["cond"] for s in new if s.get("cond")}))
@@ -67,11 +90,15 @@ def main():
     except FileNotFoundError:
         pass
     c = st.get("counters", {})
+    ev = pnl_sum / total if total else None
     print(f"[grade_surge] +{graded} settles ({flips} provisional flips) · "
-          f"book: {total} settled {wins}W · chain P&L ${pnl_sum:+.2f} · "
-          f"cash ${st.get('cash', 0):.2f} · open {len(st.get('open', {}))} · "
-          f"lifetime trig {c.get('triggers')} fill {c.get('fills')} "
+          f"measurement: {total} settled {wins}W · chain P&L ${pnl_sum:+.2f}"
+          f"{f' (${ev:+.2f}/fill)' if ev is not None else ''} · "
+          f"open {len(st.get('open', {}))} · lifetime trig {c.get('triggers')} "
+          f"att {c.get('attempts')} fill {c.get('fills')} "
           f"crater {c.get('craters')}")
+    print("[grade_surge] capturability read — NOT the #16 verdict "
+          "(forward_ledger is); bankroll reads come from surge_book_replay")
     return 0