mirror of
https://github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git
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jaxperro
2c322419b6
v1's cash-gated book halted at its pre-registered -50% line; post-mortem showed the ~2% cash-gated subsample was adversely selected (-$9/fill vs +$41/fill full-signal, same day). A2 samples every trigger and replays bankroll specs offline (surge_book_replay.py -> surge_book.json). Signal semantics verbatim; grades to surge_meas_ledger.jsonl. See #19. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
107 lines
4.1 KiB
Python
107 lines
4.1 KiB
Python
#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""Nightly chain-truth grading of the surge measurement harness (A2).
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Pulls /data/surge2_state.json AND /data/surge_attempts.jsonl off the box
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(read-only — never writes back), re-grades every settled entry with CTF
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payout vectors (payouts.truth; provisional CLOB winner flags lie on
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operator-resolved markets), and appends one row per settle to
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research/surge_meas_ledger.jsonl (keyed asset+ts, idempotent). The pulled
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copies are KEPT on disk for surge_book_replay.py (virtual bankroll specs).
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v1 history is closed: surge_paper_ledger.jsonl and /data/surge_state.json
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are frozen audit artifacts of the halted cash-gated book (2026-07-22)."""
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import json
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import os
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import shutil
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import subprocess
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import sys
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HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
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LEDGER = os.path.join(HERE, "surge_meas_ledger.jsonl")
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STATE_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".surge2_state.pull.json")
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ATT_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".surge_attempts.pull.jsonl")
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FLYCTL = shutil.which("flyctl") or "/opt/homebrew/bin/flyctl"
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def sftp(remote, local):
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subprocess.run([FLYCTL, "ssh", "sftp", "get", remote, local + ".new",
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"-a", "wwf-surgebot"], capture_output=True,
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timeout=600, stdin=subprocess.DEVNULL)
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if os.path.exists(local + ".new") and os.path.getsize(local + ".new") > 0:
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os.replace(local + ".new", local) # keep last good pull on failure
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return True
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try:
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os.remove(local + ".new")
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except FileNotFoundError:
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pass
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return False
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def main():
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ok = sftp("/data/surge2_state.json", STATE_PULL)
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sftp("/data/surge_attempts.jsonl", ATT_PULL)
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if not ok:
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print("[grade_surge] box unreachable or no state yet — skip")
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return 0
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st = json.load(open(STATE_PULL))
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sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(HERE, "..", "live"))
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import payouts
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have = set()
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ledger_rows = 0
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try:
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for ln in open(LEDGER):
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try:
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d = json.loads(ln)
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have.add((d["asset"], d["ts"]))
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ledger_rows += 1
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except Exception:
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pass
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except FileNotFoundError:
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pass
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settled = st.get("settled", [])
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total_settles = st.get("counters", {}).get("settled_total", 0)
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if total_settles > ledger_rows + len(settled):
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print(f"[grade_surge] ⚠ TAPE LOSS: {total_settles} lifetime settles "
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f"but only {ledger_rows} graded + {len(settled)} in state — "
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f"raise SETTLED_TRIM or grade more often")
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new = [s for s in settled if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in have]
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if new:
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payouts.ensure(sorted({s["cond"] for s in new if s.get("cond")}))
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graded = flips = 0
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with open(LEDGER, "a") as fh:
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for s in new:
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t = payouts.truth(s.get("cond"), s.get("asset")) if s.get("cond") else None
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pay = s["payout"] if t is None else t
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pnl = round(s["shares"] * pay - s["cost"] - s["fee"], 2)
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if t is not None and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9:
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flips += 1
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fh.write(json.dumps({**s, "chain_payout": pay, "chain_pnl": pnl,
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"flip": t is not None
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and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9}) + "\n")
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graded += 1
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total = wins = 0
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pnl_sum = 0.0
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try:
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for ln in open(LEDGER):
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d = json.loads(ln)
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total += 1
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wins += d["chain_payout"] == 1.0
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pnl_sum += d["chain_pnl"]
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except FileNotFoundError:
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pass
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c = st.get("counters", {})
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ev = pnl_sum / total if total else None
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print(f"[grade_surge] +{graded} settles ({flips} provisional flips) · "
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f"measurement: {total} settled {wins}W · chain P&L ${pnl_sum:+.2f}"
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f"{f' (${ev:+.2f}/fill)' if ev is not None else ''} · "
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f"open {len(st.get('open', {}))} · lifetime trig {c.get('triggers')} "
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f"att {c.get('attempts')} fill {c.get('fills')} "
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f"crater {c.get('craters')}")
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print("[grade_surge] capturability read — NOT the #16 verdict "
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"(forward_ledger is); bankroll reads come from surge_book_replay")
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return 0
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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sys.exit(main())
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