sharps feed: pm_pnl (Polymarket's own account P&L) + README gotcha 10 — ceiling vs bank statement

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

README.md

@@ -272,6 +272,18 @@ runner is retired (GitHub throttled `*/5` to ~2h in practice — it copied 1 of
    a transiently failed re-pull then hides the wallet's whole history from
    exact `pulled_at` checks (trust.py has a 14-day fallback for this).
 
+10. **Hold-to-resolution P&L is a copy ceiling, not the wallet's bank
+    statement.** The dashboard's Conv/All-Time P&L columns price every entry
+    held to resolution at the wallet's own stakes — the right yardstick for a
+    copier that holds, and the wrong one for judging the wallet itself.
+    Polymarket's own profile P&L (lb-api `/profit`, the **PM P&L** column) is
+    their actual cash-flow result. ~1× gap = true holder (LSB1 +$69.7k vs
+    +$68.5k); a huge gap = scalper whose entries resolve well but who never
+    holds (ArbTraderRookie: **+$8.6k real vs +$462k held, 53×** — a 0.5%
+    margin on $1.7M volume). For scalpers, whether a copier can reproduce
+    their fills is the open question — judge by the live book's measured
+    slippage, never the ceiling.
+
 ---
 
 ## The research (how we got here)

live/validate_timing.py

@@ -77,6 +77,22 @@ def _clob_winner(cond, token):
     return _CLOB[cond].get(str(token))
 
 
+def _pm_profit(w):
+    """The wallet's own all-time account P&L as Polymarket reports it
+    (lb-api /profit): cash-flow truth including early sells. The sanity anchor
+    next to the hold-to-resolution columns — a ~1x gap means true holder, a
+    huge gap means scalper (ArbTraderRookie: +$8.6k real vs +$462k held, 53x —
+    a 0.5% margin on $1.7M volume)."""
+    try:
+        req = urllib.request.Request(
+            "https://lb-api.polymarket.com/profit?window=all&limit=1&address=" + w,
+            headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"})
+        r = json.loads(urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=15, context=_SSL).read())
+        return round(r[0]["amount"]) if r else None
+    except Exception:
+        return None
+
+
 def _bet_pnl(b):
     """Resolved (outcome) P&L of one cache bet: a $size stake at avg price p pays
     size/p if won, else $0 — so P&L = size·(1−p)/p if won else −size."""
@@ -134,6 +150,7 @@ def display_stats(w):
         "realized_pnl": round(sum(_bet_pnl(b) for b in recent)),
         "all_win": round(100 * all_won / (all_won + all_lost), 1) if (all_won + all_lost) else None,
         "all_won": all_won, "all_lost": all_lost, "all_pnl": round(all_pnl),
+        "pm_pnl": _pm_profit(w),
         "avg_bet": round(sum(b["size"] for b in conv) / len(conv)) if conv else 0,
         "copy_pnl": 0, "held_pnl": 0, "held_won": 0, "held_lost": 0, "sold": 0,
         "name": None, "last_trade": 0, "last_conv_bet": 0,